This is both the XVIth & XVIIth editions because I did not have an opportunity to post my predictions last year. I will list just my predictions of which game I expected and who would win the game we saw from last year (without the extensive breakdowns) so that the continuity of these posts remains.
I predicted a Rams vs Chiefs Super Bowl. The winner I predicted of the Rams vs Bengals game that we actually saw was the Rams. I felt their team had more experience that would benefit them in the big game.
Now on to this year's preview!
As my faithful readers have grown accustom, I will list each game from least to most compelling & predict the winner of each matchup. You can see how I've done overall here: All Four Super Bowl Previews Results.
Without further ado, let's dive in!
Eagles vs Bengals
There's not a whole lot for FOX or the general public to latch onto here. Joe Burrow is hungry for the trophy having made it to the big dance two years in a row but he is facing a team that hasn't had many challenges this year. The Eagles are about as suspect as the Vikings were this year. The Giants had the good fortune of facing those Vikings and the Eagles had the good fortune of facing those Giants. The 49ers will be the first test of the Eagles since the Green Birds from Philly dropped games to the Saints & Cowboys in consecutive weeks and nearly lost to the Bears the week before that. This will be a blowout win for Burrow and the Bengals. It will be over by halftime without the drama of a Brady-esque comeback by Hurts and his crew.
Winner: Bengals
Loser: The other 11 teams who have never won the Lombardi Trophy
Eagles vs Chiefs
Due to the fact that more fair-weather fans are familiar with Mahomes than with Burrow, this matchup gets the third spot. After all, between State Farm, Subway, and Head & Shoulders Mahomes has way more commercial appearances than Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts combined! For the more seasoned NFL fan this could be coined as the Andy Reid Bowl. The head coach of the Chiefs would become the winningest coach in KC history if he defeats his former team where he is still the winningest coach in Eagles history. How thoroughly Mahomes has recovered from his Division week ankle sprain against the Jaguars will determine if the Eagles will look like they still have a chance late in the fourth quarter or if this will be a lopsided as Reagan vs Mondale (or Nixon vs McGovern - take your pick) Either way the Chiefs win. The question is: by 6 or by 26?
Winner: Chiefs (and Andy Reid)
Loser: People tired or hearing Cris Collisnworth gush over Patrick Mahomes
49ers vs Chiefs
Now we are starting to get into the interesting games! Not only is this a rematch of Super Bowl LIV but this game pits the next Tom Brady against the next Payton Manning. Have you decided which is which? Brock Purdy - literally "Mr. Irrelevant" has taken over mid season due to an injury to the starting QB and lead the team to the Super Bowl! He faces off against an explosive QB who dominates in the regular season but despite 5 consecutive trips to the AFC Championship gams has only hoisted 1 Lombardi Trophy. The deciding factor in this game which is the game I expect we will see won't be the offensive side of the ball, however. The 49ers defense has only allowed opponents to score more than 20 points thrice all season! 10 times their opponent didn't score more than 14 points! Combine that defensive dominence with the addition of Purdy and McCaffrey (who have gone 6-0 since Purdy got the starting gig) and you've got a team that will be hard to top - especially for a less-than-100%-Mahomes.
Winner: 49ers
Loser: The Dallas Cowboys who now sit alone with 5 Championships as the 49ers join the Steelers & Patriots with 6
49ers vs Bengals
Here we have another Super Bowl rematch! This time going all the way back to Super Bowls XVI and XXIII (Joe Montana's first and third Super Bowl wins - long before JMO was creating these posts). Now this, like the last two faveoffs between these teams in the big dance, will be a great game! This game will be an "instant classic!" The first matchup of two QBs who will both win multiple Championships in their careers. In a year where the final 4 QBs standing are all under 28 (23, 24, 26, and 27) the torch has been passed and these two QBs will be in the top teir (with Mahomes) for years to come. This game will go back and forth with several lead changes. Burrow will lead a late drive to put the Bengals up by 2 but Purdy will answer with a drive of his own to put the 49ers in position for a last second field goal for the win!
Winner: 49ers
Loser: Patrick Mahomes who is no longer the brightest young QB in the league
There you have it! Of course, these paragraphs are just my opinion. What's yours?
Sunday, January 29, 2023
Sunday, January 24, 2021
All Four Super Bowl Previews XV
While the Super Bowl is celebrating 55 (LV) years JMO is celebrating 15 (XV) years of our breakdown of all four possible Super Bowls. If you'd like to see the previous 14 predictions you can find them consolidated here: All Four Super Bowl Previews Results.
Per usual, I'll be listing the four possible games in order of least to most compelling. This has proven to be more difficult than past years as I would be genuinely excited to see any of these potencial games. I will be including which game I think we will see, along with the winner and loser of each match-up.
Before we jump into the games I just want to point out that the two Quarterbacks in the AFC are 24 and 25 while the two Quarterbacks in the NFC are 37 and 43! What an interesting scenario.
Bills vs Packers
Due to the fact that I think the average viewer would rather see the Chiefs led by Mahomes attempt to become the first back-to-back Super Bowl winner since the Patriots did it in '03 and '04 I'm putting both Bills games at the bottom of the "compelling" list. I also think that Brady with a team not named Patriots would draw more eyeballs than Rogers. The Bills have impressed everyone this year. First time they've won the AFC East since 1995 and the first time it was a team not named the Patriots since 2008. However, the Packers have also been performing quite well this year though somewhat under the radar. This will be a competitive game but Rogers will solidify his legacy with a late game-winning drive to win his second Lombardi Trophy.
Winner: Packers
Loser: ESPN announcers who can't wait for the young QBs to start beating the ancient ones
Bills vs Buccaneers
Bills fans will lose their minds if they have to face off against Tom Brady to win their first ever Super Bowl. He is 32-3. One loss was the year the Bills signed former Patriot Lawyer Malloy and he knew the entire Patriot's playbook. Another was a meaningless week 16 game where most of the Patriots' starters didn't play. In fact, Brady has more wins in Buffalo than every Bills QB since Jim Kelly! And the consternation would continue because Josh Allen and the Bills would not be able to defeat Tom Brady while he's wearing red and orange any more than they could when he was wearing red, white, and blue.
Winner: Buccaneers
Loser: All of the Bills folding tables that will be destroyed before and after the Bills are
Chiefs vs Packers
If Mahomes advances to the Super Bowl he will be facing a Quarterback who wears number 12. Mahomes hasn't faired very well in the post season against QBs who wear this number. These are two offenses that resembe each other quite well. By the numbers the Chiefs defense is higher rated than the Packers and their offense is more explosive. Expect Mahomes to repeat in a high scoring game should the Chiefs face the green and gold.
Winner: Chiefs
Loser: Every other good QB in the league as Mahomes will be all that the commentators will talk about
Chiefs vs Buccaneers
This is the most compelling game available: The Kid vs the Goat. The up-and-comer vs the best ever. This is also the game we will see. Both championship games are rematches of regular season games. While Mahomes has suffered a concussion he will be available to play on Sunday. While the Chiefs won't defeat the Bills as easily as they did they will still represent the AFC in the Big Dance. Brady and Co went down 10-0 against Rogers and the Pack before outscoring them 38-0. Granted this was in Tampa Bay but the cold won't bother Brady. Additionally, this game I'm predicting is a regular season rematch where the Chiefs won 27-24. This game was before Brady and his WR core were clicking like they are now. This will be a back and forth game that will come down to one or two key plays. Alas, Mahomes will NOT repeat as Brady will lift his 7th trophy, pairing Manning's feat of winning the Super Bowl with two different teams.
Winner: Buccaneers
Loser: Brady haters everywhere
There you have it. Let's see how I do. Probably not well but the beauty of it all is this is Just My Opinion.
Per usual, I'll be listing the four possible games in order of least to most compelling. This has proven to be more difficult than past years as I would be genuinely excited to see any of these potencial games. I will be including which game I think we will see, along with the winner and loser of each match-up.
Before we jump into the games I just want to point out that the two Quarterbacks in the AFC are 24 and 25 while the two Quarterbacks in the NFC are 37 and 43! What an interesting scenario.
Bills vs Packers
Due to the fact that I think the average viewer would rather see the Chiefs led by Mahomes attempt to become the first back-to-back Super Bowl winner since the Patriots did it in '03 and '04 I'm putting both Bills games at the bottom of the "compelling" list. I also think that Brady with a team not named Patriots would draw more eyeballs than Rogers. The Bills have impressed everyone this year. First time they've won the AFC East since 1995 and the first time it was a team not named the Patriots since 2008. However, the Packers have also been performing quite well this year though somewhat under the radar. This will be a competitive game but Rogers will solidify his legacy with a late game-winning drive to win his second Lombardi Trophy.
Winner: Packers
Loser: ESPN announcers who can't wait for the young QBs to start beating the ancient ones
Bills vs Buccaneers
Bills fans will lose their minds if they have to face off against Tom Brady to win their first ever Super Bowl. He is 32-3. One loss was the year the Bills signed former Patriot Lawyer Malloy and he knew the entire Patriot's playbook. Another was a meaningless week 16 game where most of the Patriots' starters didn't play. In fact, Brady has more wins in Buffalo than every Bills QB since Jim Kelly! And the consternation would continue because Josh Allen and the Bills would not be able to defeat Tom Brady while he's wearing red and orange any more than they could when he was wearing red, white, and blue.
Winner: Buccaneers
Loser: All of the Bills folding tables that will be destroyed before and after the Bills are
Chiefs vs Packers
If Mahomes advances to the Super Bowl he will be facing a Quarterback who wears number 12. Mahomes hasn't faired very well in the post season against QBs who wear this number. These are two offenses that resembe each other quite well. By the numbers the Chiefs defense is higher rated than the Packers and their offense is more explosive. Expect Mahomes to repeat in a high scoring game should the Chiefs face the green and gold.
Winner: Chiefs
Loser: Every other good QB in the league as Mahomes will be all that the commentators will talk about
Chiefs vs Buccaneers
This is the most compelling game available: The Kid vs the Goat. The up-and-comer vs the best ever. This is also the game we will see. Both championship games are rematches of regular season games. While Mahomes has suffered a concussion he will be available to play on Sunday. While the Chiefs won't defeat the Bills as easily as they did they will still represent the AFC in the Big Dance. Brady and Co went down 10-0 against Rogers and the Pack before outscoring them 38-0. Granted this was in Tampa Bay but the cold won't bother Brady. Additionally, this game I'm predicting is a regular season rematch where the Chiefs won 27-24. This game was before Brady and his WR core were clicking like they are now. This will be a back and forth game that will come down to one or two key plays. Alas, Mahomes will NOT repeat as Brady will lift his 7th trophy, pairing Manning's feat of winning the Super Bowl with two different teams.
Winner: Buccaneers
Loser: Brady haters everywhere
There you have it. Let's see how I do. Probably not well but the beauty of it all is this is Just My Opinion.
Friday, January 08, 2021
2020-2021 NFL Playoff Preview
What a strange year it has been. It's nice to take some time to think about something that has little importance like the NFL playoffs. We have two extra games to consider due to the additional wild card teams. I'll try to break them down in the order in which they will be played
Wild Card
Saturday
AFC Colts at Bills
The Colts are the team that wouldn't have made the playoffs any other year. The Bills are the team that would have had the second bye week. This shouldn't be a difficult task for the Bills to advance.
Winner: Bills
NFC Rams at Seahawks
These two teams faced off twice in the regular season. They split those matchups, each winning their home game. A major difference in this game is that Goff had surgery 12 days ago and isn't expected to play. Even though the Rams were a playoff team two years ago, I don't expect them to be able to surpass the Seahawks.
Winner: Seahawks
NFC Bucaneers at Football Team
You read that right, an NFL playoff game is being hosted by a team called "Football Team." The Washington Mascotless team managed to win the NFC East - the division that someone had to win (interestingly, each team had sole possesion of both first and last place at some point this season). TB12 and his TB squad shouldn't have any problem overcoming the Football Team.
Winner: Buccaneers
Sunday
AFC Ravens at Titans
Last year the Titans shocked the NFL when they defeated Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. This year, when they do it again, fewer people will be surprised. It'll be closer than the last meeting, but the Ravens barely deserve to be in the post season. They won't advance past the mighty Titans.
Winner: Titans
NFC Bears at Saints
Probably the easiest game to predict. While those of us who want to see Brady succeed want to see the Saints knocked off by the Bears that isn't going to happen. The Saints will easily roll past the struggling Bears.
Winner: Saints
AFC Browns at Steelers
The Steelers are the biggest pretenders in the post season. Ranked 14th out of 14 playoff teams in the JMO power rankings the Steelers will struggle to score against the Browns. Starting 11-0 thanks to a weak schedule is the only reason the Steelers are even in the playoffs. They will bow out early.
Winner: Browns
Divisional Round
Saturday
NFC Buccaneers at Packers
Finally Brady and Rogers meet up in the Post season! While Brady doesn't have the vaunted defense that he's enjoyed with many of his Championship Patriot teams the Buccaneers D will be enough to prevent Rogers from scoring over 30 points. This will be enough to allow Brady to orchestrate a last minute scoring drive to elevate the Buccaneers over the Packers.
Winner: Buccaneers
AFC Titans at Bills
These two teams are very similar in their game plans. The trouble is, the Bills are better on both sides of the ball. Expect a close game until late in the 3rd when the Bills begin to pull away.
Winner: Bills
Sunday
AFC Browns at Chiefs
The Browns benefitted from facing off against a weak team in the Wild Card round. They don't get the same benefit this round. While the Browns Defense is impressive the Chiefs are simply too explosive to be stopped. Mayfield has made strides but he won't be able to go stride for stride with Mahomes.
Winner: Chiefs
NFC Seahawks at Saints
The Saints multifaceted attack is difficult to scheme for. The Seahawks have excellent defensive personnel but the Saints are just too innovative.
Winner: Saints
Conference Championships
Saturday
AFC Bills at Chiefs
#1 vs #2. A rematch of week 6 when the Chiefs traveled to Buffalo and didn't have too much difficulty disposing of the Bills. While Fitzpatrick and the Bills have the capacity to defeat Mahomes and the Chiefs they won't be able to stop KC late in the game as they pull away to win by over 10 points.
Winner: Chiefs
NFC Buccaneers at Saints
Brady Brees volume 3. We knew they'd meet twice this season, thanks to the playoffs we get to have episode 3 "Revenge of the TB12." Brees and Crew have already beaten Brady and Co twice. Those two games accounted for more than 40% of Bradys INTs this season. The biggest difference between TB12 wearing TB's colors (as opposed to NE's) is that Bruce Arian's preference is "go deep first" where as Belichick's passing game was quick dink and dunks that worked more like a running game. The Saints Defense is specifically structured to defend against this. If Brady is to win he will need to adjust accordingly. Brady is capable of doing this but will Arians allow him to? I doubt it. It's tough to beat the same team 3 times in one season. That may not matter this year.
Winner: Saints
Super Bowl
Chiefs vs Saints
One really can't go wrong with any of the potential Super Bowls: Bills Buccaneers has the Brady vs old rivalry angle. Chiefs Buccaneers has the Mahomes Brady rematch and this time its for the Lombardi Trophy. Chiefs Saints has two powerful passing offenses facing off against each other. Bills Chiefs has two rising teams competing to see who will be the best. Bills Saints is probably the least compelling of the matchups. Buccaneers Bills is what I'd want to see. Chiefs Saints is what I expect. The Saints will jump out to a strong early lead and then be able to rely on their secondary to prevent the explosive deep passing game of Mahomes and Hill. Expect Kelce to have a big game and if the Chiefs manage to eek out a win he'll likely get MVP honors. However, this will be Brees' opportunity to win his second Lombardi trophy and retire on top.
Winner: Saints
Just for fun, Chiefs win against the Bucs, Bills would lose to either NFC team. I usually do a pretty poor job at predicting these. Let's see if that holds true. I hope you enjoyed reading what amounts to be Just My Opinion.
Wild Card
Saturday
AFC Colts at Bills
The Colts are the team that wouldn't have made the playoffs any other year. The Bills are the team that would have had the second bye week. This shouldn't be a difficult task for the Bills to advance.
Winner: Bills
NFC Rams at Seahawks
These two teams faced off twice in the regular season. They split those matchups, each winning their home game. A major difference in this game is that Goff had surgery 12 days ago and isn't expected to play. Even though the Rams were a playoff team two years ago, I don't expect them to be able to surpass the Seahawks.
Winner: Seahawks
NFC Bucaneers at Football Team
You read that right, an NFL playoff game is being hosted by a team called "Football Team." The Washington Mascotless team managed to win the NFC East - the division that someone had to win (interestingly, each team had sole possesion of both first and last place at some point this season). TB12 and his TB squad shouldn't have any problem overcoming the Football Team.
Winner: Buccaneers
Sunday
AFC Ravens at Titans
Last year the Titans shocked the NFL when they defeated Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. This year, when they do it again, fewer people will be surprised. It'll be closer than the last meeting, but the Ravens barely deserve to be in the post season. They won't advance past the mighty Titans.
Winner: Titans
NFC Bears at Saints
Probably the easiest game to predict. While those of us who want to see Brady succeed want to see the Saints knocked off by the Bears that isn't going to happen. The Saints will easily roll past the struggling Bears.
Winner: Saints
AFC Browns at Steelers
The Steelers are the biggest pretenders in the post season. Ranked 14th out of 14 playoff teams in the JMO power rankings the Steelers will struggle to score against the Browns. Starting 11-0 thanks to a weak schedule is the only reason the Steelers are even in the playoffs. They will bow out early.
Winner: Browns
Divisional Round
Saturday
NFC Buccaneers at Packers
Finally Brady and Rogers meet up in the Post season! While Brady doesn't have the vaunted defense that he's enjoyed with many of his Championship Patriot teams the Buccaneers D will be enough to prevent Rogers from scoring over 30 points. This will be enough to allow Brady to orchestrate a last minute scoring drive to elevate the Buccaneers over the Packers.
Winner: Buccaneers
AFC Titans at Bills
These two teams are very similar in their game plans. The trouble is, the Bills are better on both sides of the ball. Expect a close game until late in the 3rd when the Bills begin to pull away.
Winner: Bills
Sunday
AFC Browns at Chiefs
The Browns benefitted from facing off against a weak team in the Wild Card round. They don't get the same benefit this round. While the Browns Defense is impressive the Chiefs are simply too explosive to be stopped. Mayfield has made strides but he won't be able to go stride for stride with Mahomes.
Winner: Chiefs
NFC Seahawks at Saints
The Saints multifaceted attack is difficult to scheme for. The Seahawks have excellent defensive personnel but the Saints are just too innovative.
Winner: Saints
Conference Championships
Saturday
AFC Bills at Chiefs
#1 vs #2. A rematch of week 6 when the Chiefs traveled to Buffalo and didn't have too much difficulty disposing of the Bills. While Fitzpatrick and the Bills have the capacity to defeat Mahomes and the Chiefs they won't be able to stop KC late in the game as they pull away to win by over 10 points.
Winner: Chiefs
NFC Buccaneers at Saints
Brady Brees volume 3. We knew they'd meet twice this season, thanks to the playoffs we get to have episode 3 "Revenge of the TB12." Brees and Crew have already beaten Brady and Co twice. Those two games accounted for more than 40% of Bradys INTs this season. The biggest difference between TB12 wearing TB's colors (as opposed to NE's) is that Bruce Arian's preference is "go deep first" where as Belichick's passing game was quick dink and dunks that worked more like a running game. The Saints Defense is specifically structured to defend against this. If Brady is to win he will need to adjust accordingly. Brady is capable of doing this but will Arians allow him to? I doubt it. It's tough to beat the same team 3 times in one season. That may not matter this year.
Winner: Saints
Super Bowl
Chiefs vs Saints
One really can't go wrong with any of the potential Super Bowls: Bills Buccaneers has the Brady vs old rivalry angle. Chiefs Buccaneers has the Mahomes Brady rematch and this time its for the Lombardi Trophy. Chiefs Saints has two powerful passing offenses facing off against each other. Bills Chiefs has two rising teams competing to see who will be the best. Bills Saints is probably the least compelling of the matchups. Buccaneers Bills is what I'd want to see. Chiefs Saints is what I expect. The Saints will jump out to a strong early lead and then be able to rely on their secondary to prevent the explosive deep passing game of Mahomes and Hill. Expect Kelce to have a big game and if the Chiefs manage to eek out a win he'll likely get MVP honors. However, this will be Brees' opportunity to win his second Lombardi trophy and retire on top.
Winner: Saints
Just for fun, Chiefs win against the Bucs, Bills would lose to either NFC team. I usually do a pretty poor job at predicting these. Let's see if that holds true. I hope you enjoyed reading what amounts to be Just My Opinion.
Saturday, January 18, 2020
All Four Super Bowl Previews XIV
It's hard to believe that this is the 14th year that I've been previewing each of the four possible Super Bowls. In fact, this very post was the only thing keeping this blog alive for many years.
If you perused my 2019-2020 playoff preview you'll see just how poorly I did getting 75% of the wild card games wrong. It was such a bad showing that I found myself pulling for the Eagles so I could go a complete 0 for 4! I would have also predicted the Ravens/Titans game wrong.
I just want to take a moment to highlight this astonishing fact: This is the first time since 2011 that the Patriots are not in the AFC Championship game! Eight consecutive years of appearing in the AFC Championship game is an amazing feat. They've faced 6 different teams over those 8 years (Chiefs, Jaguars, Steelers, Broncos [twice], Colts, & Ravens [twice]).
If you're interested in how I've done historically, here is a link to my previous 13 predictions:
All Four Super Bowl Preview Annual Results. I've gone 20 for 37 so far for a score of 54%. Let's see if we can get that up to 58% with this year's predictions!
As you've come to expect, I will preview the games from what I believe to be least compelling to most compelling. I'll highlight which game I'm predicting along with which team I think would win each of the four games.
Titans vs 49ers
Too few people even know who Ryan Tannehill is to put either game with the Titans very high on the compelling list. However, the Titans are currently the second best team remaining in the playoffs. That's right, the 6th seed out of the AFC is the second best team. Consider the following: Since switching QBs from Mariota to Tannehill the Titans have gone 9 - 3. They've gone 4-2 against playoff teams defeating the likes of the Ravens, Chiefs, Patriots, and Texans (Losing to the Texans and Saints) and winning most of these games on the road. Unfortunately for the Titans, the 49ers are the *best* team still in the running to hoist the silver football. If you didn't like last year's defensive, low-scoring Super Bowl, you won't like this one either. With two run-heavy, defensively-minded teams this will be a low-scoring game that will go by quickly. Additionally, this is the game that we will watch - and when we watch it, we will see Garoppolo and the 'Niners end the Cinderella story of Tannehill and the Titans in a closely fought game. I expect there will be a similar heartbreaking ending for the Titans as when they lost to the Rams: A late drive to try to win the game that comes just one play short.
Winner: 49ers
Loser: Everyone who didn't want to see "The Patriots" in the Super Bowl (Garoppolo, Vrabel)
Titans vs Packers
There is a storyline here: The trophy handed out to the winner of the Super Bowl is named for the legendary coach of the Green Bay Packers: Vince Lombardi. The Tennessee Titans have never won the big game (not even in their previous iteration as the Houston Oilers). So here we have the team that won the first 2 championships (but not since 2011) vs a team that has never won. The Titans are on the way up while, on the other hand, The Packers are on the way down. They haven't looked like the Pack of the past. The Packers have struggled to win games where their opponent scored more than 20 points. Combine that stat with the fact that, of the four remaining teams, the Packers had the easiest schedule, don't expect them to overcome the fierce running game of Henry and the Titans. It'll be close at the end but the Titans pull out the win.
Winner: Titans
Loser: Quarterbacks under the age of 30
Chiefs vs Packers
Old guard vs the next big thing. This game would pit two similar offenses together. Powerful passing teams with supportive runners that both have less-than-stellar defenses. This would be a high scoring game as Rogers & Co march down the field with diligent and intentional drives that pick the Chiefs defense apart. The Chiefs would respond with their explosive offensive plays that pick up huge chunks of yardage as they out-match the Packer's D with their speed and quickness. This game will come down to mistakes vs big plays. Both of which will be made more by the Chiefs. The final one will be a desperation play that looks like it may win the game for Mahomes and his hommies (How could I resist) but will result in a game ending interceptions sealing the victory for Green Bay.
Winner: Packers
Loser: State Farm. For which of their QB spokespersons will they cheer?
Chiefs vs 49ers
I believe this is the game that the general public think they want to see. The highest ranked team in the NFC vs the highest ranked team remaining in the AFC. Garoppolo vs Mahomes. The two rising young quarterbacks who look like they maybe be the future Brady vs Manning. This looks like it has the makings of a great Super Bowl. Here's why they're wrong: While Kansas City has perhaps the most potent offense in the NFL that can score on short drives in the blink of an eye, their rushing defense is atrocious. The 49ers are a power rushing team with a quick-pass, west-coast offense that taxes pass defenses as though they were run plays. This match-up would have some exciting moments as the Chiefs attempt to climb their way back into the game but the 49ers will be in control for the majority of the game beginning late in the 1st Quarter. This snooze-fest concludes with Garoppolo hoisting his first (of several) Lombardi Trophy
Winner: 49ers
Loser: "The Old Guard" of Brady, Rogers, Manning, Rivers, & Brees
If you perused my 2019-2020 playoff preview you'll see just how poorly I did getting 75% of the wild card games wrong. It was such a bad showing that I found myself pulling for the Eagles so I could go a complete 0 for 4! I would have also predicted the Ravens/Titans game wrong.
I just want to take a moment to highlight this astonishing fact: This is the first time since 2011 that the Patriots are not in the AFC Championship game! Eight consecutive years of appearing in the AFC Championship game is an amazing feat. They've faced 6 different teams over those 8 years (Chiefs, Jaguars, Steelers, Broncos [twice], Colts, & Ravens [twice]).
If you're interested in how I've done historically, here is a link to my previous 13 predictions:
All Four Super Bowl Preview Annual Results. I've gone 20 for 37 so far for a score of 54%. Let's see if we can get that up to 58% with this year's predictions!
As you've come to expect, I will preview the games from what I believe to be least compelling to most compelling. I'll highlight which game I'm predicting along with which team I think would win each of the four games.
Titans vs 49ers
Too few people even know who Ryan Tannehill is to put either game with the Titans very high on the compelling list. However, the Titans are currently the second best team remaining in the playoffs. That's right, the 6th seed out of the AFC is the second best team. Consider the following: Since switching QBs from Mariota to Tannehill the Titans have gone 9 - 3. They've gone 4-2 against playoff teams defeating the likes of the Ravens, Chiefs, Patriots, and Texans (Losing to the Texans and Saints) and winning most of these games on the road. Unfortunately for the Titans, the 49ers are the *best* team still in the running to hoist the silver football. If you didn't like last year's defensive, low-scoring Super Bowl, you won't like this one either. With two run-heavy, defensively-minded teams this will be a low-scoring game that will go by quickly. Additionally, this is the game that we will watch - and when we watch it, we will see Garoppolo and the 'Niners end the Cinderella story of Tannehill and the Titans in a closely fought game. I expect there will be a similar heartbreaking ending for the Titans as when they lost to the Rams: A late drive to try to win the game that comes just one play short.
Winner: 49ers
Loser: Everyone who didn't want to see "The Patriots" in the Super Bowl (Garoppolo, Vrabel)
Titans vs Packers
There is a storyline here: The trophy handed out to the winner of the Super Bowl is named for the legendary coach of the Green Bay Packers: Vince Lombardi. The Tennessee Titans have never won the big game (not even in their previous iteration as the Houston Oilers). So here we have the team that won the first 2 championships (but not since 2011) vs a team that has never won. The Titans are on the way up while, on the other hand, The Packers are on the way down. They haven't looked like the Pack of the past. The Packers have struggled to win games where their opponent scored more than 20 points. Combine that stat with the fact that, of the four remaining teams, the Packers had the easiest schedule, don't expect them to overcome the fierce running game of Henry and the Titans. It'll be close at the end but the Titans pull out the win.
Winner: Titans
Loser: Quarterbacks under the age of 30
Chiefs vs Packers
Old guard vs the next big thing. This game would pit two similar offenses together. Powerful passing teams with supportive runners that both have less-than-stellar defenses. This would be a high scoring game as Rogers & Co march down the field with diligent and intentional drives that pick the Chiefs defense apart. The Chiefs would respond with their explosive offensive plays that pick up huge chunks of yardage as they out-match the Packer's D with their speed and quickness. This game will come down to mistakes vs big plays. Both of which will be made more by the Chiefs. The final one will be a desperation play that looks like it may win the game for Mahomes and his hommies (How could I resist) but will result in a game ending interceptions sealing the victory for Green Bay.
Winner: Packers
Loser: State Farm. For which of their QB spokespersons will they cheer?
Chiefs vs 49ers
I believe this is the game that the general public think they want to see. The highest ranked team in the NFC vs the highest ranked team remaining in the AFC. Garoppolo vs Mahomes. The two rising young quarterbacks who look like they maybe be the future Brady vs Manning. This looks like it has the makings of a great Super Bowl. Here's why they're wrong: While Kansas City has perhaps the most potent offense in the NFL that can score on short drives in the blink of an eye, their rushing defense is atrocious. The 49ers are a power rushing team with a quick-pass, west-coast offense that taxes pass defenses as though they were run plays. This match-up would have some exciting moments as the Chiefs attempt to climb their way back into the game but the 49ers will be in control for the majority of the game beginning late in the 1st Quarter. This snooze-fest concludes with Garoppolo hoisting his first (of several) Lombardi Trophy
Winner: 49ers
Loser: "The Old Guard" of Brady, Rogers, Manning, Rivers, & Brees
Saturday, January 04, 2020
2019 - 2020 NFL Playoff Preview
It's not every year that I have the opportunity to breakdown what (probably won't but) may happen in the playoffs. However, as this is my favorite time of year, when I do have the time I enjoy taking it!
I didn't post one of these last year so you don't have to sit through the torture of me recapping how poorly I did.
We will start with the AFC (in order of when the games will air)
Bills @ Texans:
Two 10 - 6 teams face off in Houston. These teams can be a bit of a quandary as Houston defeated such juggernauts as the Chiefs and the Patriots but lost to the 7-9 Colts and the 5-11 Panthers. While Buffalo was unable to over come the Patriots either time they faced off this year they did beat another playoff team in the Titans and also overcame two bubble teams: Dallas and Pittsburgh. Their common opponents are just as confusing with each losing to teams the other defeated. With two mobile and youthful quarterbacks this game will come down to the defense. Buffalo is second overall in defense. Houston is 22. The Bills will buck their way to the second round.
Titans @ Patriots
While this game appears to be a one that should cause Patriots fans to be concerned (Vrabel, a former Belichick protégé, and a team with a strong running game) there are several things in the Patriots favor: the Patriots have forced nearly an entire season's worth of turnovers MORE than the Titans, the Patriots have the number 1 defense in the league, and the Patriots 8th rank passing offense by far surpasses the Titan's 24th ranked passing D. Expect TB12 and "The Squirrel" Julian Edelman to pad their playoff passing stats in this walk-away win for the Pats.
Bills @ Ravens
This is the worst possible AFC match-up for the Baltimore Ravens. The Bills are one of the final two teams that have a chance of stopping the potent Ravens offense. With two similar very mobile QBs in Jackson and Allen along with two very difficult to bring down RBs with Singletary and Ingram these two teams match-up amazingly well. Combine that with the fact that the Bills gave up just under 10 more yards per game that the Ravens and you've got a recipe for a very exciting, very physical ground & pound game. What will be the deciding factor of this game will be the ability of the QBs to pass effectively. Oddly enough, the edge goes to Allen. However, the Ravens D will make a big play late in the game to seal their victory.
Patriots @ Chiefs
A rematch of last year's thrilling AFC Championship game where the Patriots shocked the rookie QB Mahomes with a 37-31 finish in overtime. It's also a rematch of the Chief's victory (referee assisted victory) over the Patriots in the regular season. So who walks away from this contest with the W? This is a classic case of powerful offense vs stingy defense. The saying holds true: Defense wins championships. Expect Brady & Co to move on.
Patriots @ Ravens
While people may think they want to see the Chiefs face the Ravens that game would not be as compelling as this one. The Ravens would walk away with that game. This one will be much closer. All season Lamar and the Ravens have been utilizing the same game plan because it works. But that means that football grandmaster Belichick has a season's worth of film to devise a way to stop it. The question is: Can the Patriot's offense move the ball and score against the Raven's third ranked D? Just like the Patriots most recent Super Bowl win this will be a low scoring, one score game that will come down to the closing seconds to determine the winner. And the team that will be representing the AFC in the Super Bowl will be the Baltimore Ravens.
NFC
Vikings @ Saints
For many the Vikings are a surprise playoff team. The "experts" had already declared the Bears the winners of the Super Bowl. With Trubisky and Mack AND Rogers and Adams to overcome, how could Cousins & Co possibly make the post season? Well, with a Chicago implosion and a bunch of other NFC teams seemingly trying NOT to make the playoffs here they are. And they draw Drew Brees and the Saints. Enjoy your playoff game, Vikings, maybe you'll get another next year.
Seahawks @ Eagles
Much like the Vikings, no one thought that ANYONE from the NFC East would be in the playoffs. But somebody had to win. Keeping Dallas out the Eagles managed to get to host this playoff game. Compare that with the Seahawks who were a game or two away from winning the NFC West and maybe having a bye week. The Eagles won't have an opportunity to run another "Philly Special" in the big game as they are one and done.
Seahawks @ 49ers
These two teams swapped victories the two times they faced each other in the regular season with the 49ers winning the week 17. While they match up well against each other (experiencing a 1 point difference with the combined total of their two face-offs) when it comes to common opponents the 49ers are head and shoulders ahead of the Seahawks. While it won't be an easy win the 49ers will finish with the W.
Saints @ Packers
Two of the greatest QBs in the NFL face off in this game. Additionally, two very evenly matched teams: averaging their offensive and defensive rankings they both fall between 12th & 13th place with the Saints being a more powerful offense with the Packers having a more balanced team. This game is the most difficult for me to make a selection but I expect Brees and his passing game to win as Roger's last minute trademarked "hail mary" pass is deflected to the ground (with a questionable no-call on DPI).
Saints @ 49ers
The rematch of week 14 where the 49ers finally proved they were the real thing, having lost to all of the other good teams they'd faced who were above .500 at the time. Also, the third year in a row that New Orleans' fans will have their hearts wrenched from their chests (narrowly losing to the Rams last year, and the "Miracle in Minnesota" the year before). While the Saints will be in this game until the 4th they will be unable to stop the running game of the 49ers and will, once again, have to say "maybe next year."
Super Bowl
Ravens vs 49ers
The rematch of Super Bowl XLVII (47) [aka the Har-Bowl (as the Harbaugh brothers faced off); aka the Blackout Bowl (when one half of the SuperDome's lights went out)] when the Ravens edged out the 49ers by a score of 34 - 31 (with "begging for a defensive holding call" final play). While ESPN and the NFL are ready to crown Lamar Jackson as the next "Greatest QB ever" he's gonna have to wait because Garoppolo will win his first Super Bowl ring. These two teams will provide us with an old-school, grind-it-out, dirt-in-the-cleats, head-down-north-south, lots-of-hyphens, defensive-battle game! The Ravens and 49ers are first & second in rushing, first & second in total TDs scored, and third & fifth regarding points against (all respectively). So with two teams so evenly matched what will decide the winner? The passing game. The 49ers are the number 1 passing defense in the league. The Ravens? Number 6. But the 49ers offensive passing rank is 14 places higher than the Ravens. Garoppolo will out pass Lamar when it matters most and hoist his first Lombardi Trophy as the 49ers win their first Super Bowl since 1995.
There you have it: my playoff predictions (which at the time I'm submitting this edit are already 0-1). Stay tuned in a few weeks for my favorite (and sometimes only) post of the year: All Four Super Bowl Previews (XIV!)
I didn't post one of these last year so you don't have to sit through the torture of me recapping how poorly I did.
We will start with the AFC (in order of when the games will air)
Bills @ Texans:
Two 10 - 6 teams face off in Houston. These teams can be a bit of a quandary as Houston defeated such juggernauts as the Chiefs and the Patriots but lost to the 7-9 Colts and the 5-11 Panthers. While Buffalo was unable to over come the Patriots either time they faced off this year they did beat another playoff team in the Titans and also overcame two bubble teams: Dallas and Pittsburgh. Their common opponents are just as confusing with each losing to teams the other defeated. With two mobile and youthful quarterbacks this game will come down to the defense. Buffalo is second overall in defense. Houston is 22. The Bills will buck their way to the second round.
Titans @ Patriots
While this game appears to be a one that should cause Patriots fans to be concerned (Vrabel, a former Belichick protégé, and a team with a strong running game) there are several things in the Patriots favor: the Patriots have forced nearly an entire season's worth of turnovers MORE than the Titans, the Patriots have the number 1 defense in the league, and the Patriots 8th rank passing offense by far surpasses the Titan's 24th ranked passing D. Expect TB12 and "The Squirrel" Julian Edelman to pad their playoff passing stats in this walk-away win for the Pats.
Bills @ Ravens
This is the worst possible AFC match-up for the Baltimore Ravens. The Bills are one of the final two teams that have a chance of stopping the potent Ravens offense. With two similar very mobile QBs in Jackson and Allen along with two very difficult to bring down RBs with Singletary and Ingram these two teams match-up amazingly well. Combine that with the fact that the Bills gave up just under 10 more yards per game that the Ravens and you've got a recipe for a very exciting, very physical ground & pound game. What will be the deciding factor of this game will be the ability of the QBs to pass effectively. Oddly enough, the edge goes to Allen. However, the Ravens D will make a big play late in the game to seal their victory.
Patriots @ Chiefs
A rematch of last year's thrilling AFC Championship game where the Patriots shocked the rookie QB Mahomes with a 37-31 finish in overtime. It's also a rematch of the Chief's victory (referee assisted victory) over the Patriots in the regular season. So who walks away from this contest with the W? This is a classic case of powerful offense vs stingy defense. The saying holds true: Defense wins championships. Expect Brady & Co to move on.
Patriots @ Ravens
While people may think they want to see the Chiefs face the Ravens that game would not be as compelling as this one. The Ravens would walk away with that game. This one will be much closer. All season Lamar and the Ravens have been utilizing the same game plan because it works. But that means that football grandmaster Belichick has a season's worth of film to devise a way to stop it. The question is: Can the Patriot's offense move the ball and score against the Raven's third ranked D? Just like the Patriots most recent Super Bowl win this will be a low scoring, one score game that will come down to the closing seconds to determine the winner. And the team that will be representing the AFC in the Super Bowl will be the Baltimore Ravens.
NFC
Vikings @ Saints
For many the Vikings are a surprise playoff team. The "experts" had already declared the Bears the winners of the Super Bowl. With Trubisky and Mack AND Rogers and Adams to overcome, how could Cousins & Co possibly make the post season? Well, with a Chicago implosion and a bunch of other NFC teams seemingly trying NOT to make the playoffs here they are. And they draw Drew Brees and the Saints. Enjoy your playoff game, Vikings, maybe you'll get another next year.
Seahawks @ Eagles
Much like the Vikings, no one thought that ANYONE from the NFC East would be in the playoffs. But somebody had to win. Keeping Dallas out the Eagles managed to get to host this playoff game. Compare that with the Seahawks who were a game or two away from winning the NFC West and maybe having a bye week. The Eagles won't have an opportunity to run another "Philly Special" in the big game as they are one and done.
Seahawks @ 49ers
These two teams swapped victories the two times they faced each other in the regular season with the 49ers winning the week 17. While they match up well against each other (experiencing a 1 point difference with the combined total of their two face-offs) when it comes to common opponents the 49ers are head and shoulders ahead of the Seahawks. While it won't be an easy win the 49ers will finish with the W.
Saints @ Packers
Two of the greatest QBs in the NFL face off in this game. Additionally, two very evenly matched teams: averaging their offensive and defensive rankings they both fall between 12th & 13th place with the Saints being a more powerful offense with the Packers having a more balanced team. This game is the most difficult for me to make a selection but I expect Brees and his passing game to win as Roger's last minute trademarked "hail mary" pass is deflected to the ground (with a questionable no-call on DPI).
Saints @ 49ers
The rematch of week 14 where the 49ers finally proved they were the real thing, having lost to all of the other good teams they'd faced who were above .500 at the time. Also, the third year in a row that New Orleans' fans will have their hearts wrenched from their chests (narrowly losing to the Rams last year, and the "Miracle in Minnesota" the year before). While the Saints will be in this game until the 4th they will be unable to stop the running game of the 49ers and will, once again, have to say "maybe next year."
Super Bowl
Ravens vs 49ers
The rematch of Super Bowl XLVII (47) [aka the Har-Bowl (as the Harbaugh brothers faced off); aka the Blackout Bowl (when one half of the SuperDome's lights went out)] when the Ravens edged out the 49ers by a score of 34 - 31 (with "begging for a defensive holding call" final play). While ESPN and the NFL are ready to crown Lamar Jackson as the next "Greatest QB ever" he's gonna have to wait because Garoppolo will win his first Super Bowl ring. These two teams will provide us with an old-school, grind-it-out, dirt-in-the-cleats, head-down-north-south, lots-of-hyphens, defensive-battle game! The Ravens and 49ers are first & second in rushing, first & second in total TDs scored, and third & fifth regarding points against (all respectively). So with two teams so evenly matched what will decide the winner? The passing game. The 49ers are the number 1 passing defense in the league. The Ravens? Number 6. But the 49ers offensive passing rank is 14 places higher than the Ravens. Garoppolo will out pass Lamar when it matters most and hoist his first Lombardi Trophy as the 49ers win their first Super Bowl since 1995.
There you have it: my playoff predictions (which at the time I'm submitting this edit are already 0-1). Stay tuned in a few weeks for my favorite (and sometimes only) post of the year: All Four Super Bowl Previews (XIV!)
Saturday, January 19, 2019
All Four Super Bowl Previews XIII
Anyone who knows me knows that the NFL Playoff season is my favorite time of the year! It's like Christmas every weekend! (If you'd like to see how I've fared with my predictions over the past eleven years, you'll find them listed at the bottom of this post along with links if you're interested in my previous analysis.)
If you'd like to see how I've done year over year, you will find my historic results here: All Four Super Bowl Preview Annual Results
Alright, here are this year's games from least compelling* to most: *("Compelling" refers to how interested an average viewer might be and which game the networks are hoping for)
Chiefs vs Rams
While the analysts might enjoy examining a 2016 draft pick (Goff) vs a 2017 draft pick (Mahomes), seeing two practically rookie QBs facing off in the big game isn't as exciting as it may seem. It also will be less-than-compelling to see the Patriot-haters continue to salivate over the "next Brady/Manning" in Patrick Mahomes. One NFL "analyst" in reviewing the Patriots/Chiefs game gave the QB edge to Mahomes! Not the offensive edge (which, while a stretch, could be understandable). No, no, the QB edge! That somehow the sophomore "no-look-passer-in-his-first-post-season" had the edge on the "I-have-more-playoff-wins-than-you-have-career-starts-(or-years-of-age-for-that-matter)" 5-time-Super-Bowl-MVP veteran! Anyway. This game would feature explosive offenses with zero defense. Take the over on this game and expect on of the highest scoring Super Bowls in history. KC ranks 31st in passing D (probably because they got out to early leads so teams had to pass against them) but 27th in run defense (which is atrocious when you hold the lead for most of the game). The Rams aren't much better ranking 14th and 23rd respectively but it should be enough to stop Mahomes in his bid for his first ring.
Winner: Rams
Losers: The score board operators! (Good thing they aren't manual anymore!)
Patriots vs Rams
Let's be honest, most Americans don't want to see Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the Patriots in yet another Super Bowl. But if they DO have to watch it they'd rather see Brady face off against Brees than Goff. Not only because in an effort to de-throne Brady people are looking to garbage-time-stat-monster Brees. The Rams of this year look a lot like the Eagles of last year: An up-and-coming QB with a good run game and solid receivers. That may sound like it spells doom for TB12 and his crew as they were unable to overcome the Eagles last year. However, there is a very believable reason as to why the Patriots lost that game (A short version of the theory can be found here: Did Belichick Throw The Super Bowl?) Will this happen again? We at JMO don't think so. This game might be close at the half, but expect the Patriots to pull away late in the game.
Winner: Patriots
Loser: Robert Kraft as Belichick will have proven he's necessary for the Patriot's Super Bowl wins
Patriots vs Saints
This game should be viewed as the most compelling as it pits two perennial all star quarterbacks against each other as well as the Offensive minded Sean Payton against the Defensive minded Bill Belichick. And if there was ever a claim to be made about which team cheated more this is the match-up for that debate (See: Bounty-gate v Deflate-gate)! The Patriots are the best team remaining regarding passing defense, while the Saints are the best remaining team regarding rushing defense. Those represent the strengths of each team's opponent as the Patriots failed to win when they didn't have 100 yards rushing and the Saints lost when their passing game was off-kilter. So who wins this game? (Which is the game we will have the pleasure of seeing)?
Winner: Saints
Losers: Anyone near a Saints fan announcing that Brees is the only QB to defeat Brady and Manning in the Super Bowl
Chiefs vs Saints
This is the game that the networks want! Mahomes has been every non-New England football analysts sweetheart since week 2. They are hoping so strongly that he can unseat Brady in the AFC Championship game and then beat Brees in the Super Bowl and be the young, fresh face of the NFL. Not since Andrew Luck and Cam Newton has there been such fanfare over the "next great QB!" This game is what the NFL wants as well because the Chiefs and Saints are 3rd and 12th in passing offense (respectively) while also being 32nd and 31st in passing defense (also, respectively)! Maybe the coaches can have an agreement where they each get an offensive series while the opponent's defense stays on the bench. The fans watching at home won't really be able to tell the difference. Taking into account the fact that some defense wins championships combined with the inexperience of the Chiefs this game will go to Drew Brees and the Saints.
Winner: Saints
Loser: The Las Vegas Over/Under Bookies
Those are my thoughts, what are yours?
If you'd like to see how I've done year over year, you will find my historic results here: All Four Super Bowl Preview Annual Results
Alright, here are this year's games from least compelling* to most: *("Compelling" refers to how interested an average viewer might be and which game the networks are hoping for)
Chiefs vs Rams
While the analysts might enjoy examining a 2016 draft pick (Goff) vs a 2017 draft pick (Mahomes), seeing two practically rookie QBs facing off in the big game isn't as exciting as it may seem. It also will be less-than-compelling to see the Patriot-haters continue to salivate over the "next Brady/Manning" in Patrick Mahomes. One NFL "analyst" in reviewing the Patriots/Chiefs game gave the QB edge to Mahomes! Not the offensive edge (which, while a stretch, could be understandable). No, no, the QB edge! That somehow the sophomore "no-look-passer-in-his-first-post-season" had the edge on the "I-have-more-playoff-wins-than-you-have-career-starts-(or-years-of-age-for-that-matter)" 5-time-Super-Bowl-MVP veteran! Anyway. This game would feature explosive offenses with zero defense. Take the over on this game and expect on of the highest scoring Super Bowls in history. KC ranks 31st in passing D (probably because they got out to early leads so teams had to pass against them) but 27th in run defense (which is atrocious when you hold the lead for most of the game). The Rams aren't much better ranking 14th and 23rd respectively but it should be enough to stop Mahomes in his bid for his first ring.
Winner: Rams
Losers: The score board operators! (Good thing they aren't manual anymore!)
Patriots vs Rams
Let's be honest, most Americans don't want to see Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the Patriots in yet another Super Bowl. But if they DO have to watch it they'd rather see Brady face off against Brees than Goff. Not only because in an effort to de-throne Brady people are looking to garbage-time-stat-monster Brees. The Rams of this year look a lot like the Eagles of last year: An up-and-coming QB with a good run game and solid receivers. That may sound like it spells doom for TB12 and his crew as they were unable to overcome the Eagles last year. However, there is a very believable reason as to why the Patriots lost that game (A short version of the theory can be found here: Did Belichick Throw The Super Bowl?) Will this happen again? We at JMO don't think so. This game might be close at the half, but expect the Patriots to pull away late in the game.
Winner: Patriots
Loser: Robert Kraft as Belichick will have proven he's necessary for the Patriot's Super Bowl wins
Patriots vs Saints
This game should be viewed as the most compelling as it pits two perennial all star quarterbacks against each other as well as the Offensive minded Sean Payton against the Defensive minded Bill Belichick. And if there was ever a claim to be made about which team cheated more this is the match-up for that debate (See: Bounty-gate v Deflate-gate)! The Patriots are the best team remaining regarding passing defense, while the Saints are the best remaining team regarding rushing defense. Those represent the strengths of each team's opponent as the Patriots failed to win when they didn't have 100 yards rushing and the Saints lost when their passing game was off-kilter. So who wins this game? (Which is the game we will have the pleasure of seeing)?
Winner: Saints
Losers: Anyone near a Saints fan announcing that Brees is the only QB to defeat Brady and Manning in the Super Bowl
Chiefs vs Saints
This is the game that the networks want! Mahomes has been every non-New England football analysts sweetheart since week 2. They are hoping so strongly that he can unseat Brady in the AFC Championship game and then beat Brees in the Super Bowl and be the young, fresh face of the NFL. Not since Andrew Luck and Cam Newton has there been such fanfare over the "next great QB!" This game is what the NFL wants as well because the Chiefs and Saints are 3rd and 12th in passing offense (respectively) while also being 32nd and 31st in passing defense (also, respectively)! Maybe the coaches can have an agreement where they each get an offensive series while the opponent's defense stays on the bench. The fans watching at home won't really be able to tell the difference. Taking into account the fact that some defense wins championships combined with the inexperience of the Chiefs this game will go to Drew Brees and the Saints.
Winner: Saints
Loser: The Las Vegas Over/Under Bookies
Those are my thoughts, what are yours?
Continuing Collection of "All Four Super Bowl Previews" Results
My "All Four Super Bowl Previews" were getting a bit long-winded with the inclusion of the links to all of my previous annual predictions. Accordingly, I've decided to consolidate all of my results in one post that I will update and link to each year. Here is my current score: Last year I went 2 out of 3 bringing my total tally to 26 for 46, for a score of 56.5%.
Here are the links to my previous predictions, analysis, winners, and losers (from most recent to my first post in 2007):
2023, Eagles vs Chiefs;
Game Predicted: 49ers over Chiefs
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Chiefs
Score/Rolling Percentage: x for x; xx.x% (24+x for 43+3)
2022, Rams over Bengals;
Game Predicted: Chiefs over Rams
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Rams
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 56.5% (26 for 46)
2021, Bucaneers over Chiefs;
Game Predicted: Bucaneers over Chiefs
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Bucaneers
Score/Rolling Percentage: 3 for 3; 55.8% (24 for 43)
2020, Chiefs over 49ers;
Game Predicted: 49ers over Titans
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: 49ers
Score/Rolling Percentage: 1 for 3; 52.5% (21 for 40)
2019, Patriots over Rams;
Game Predicted: Saints over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 54% (20 for 37)
2018, Eagles over Patriots;
Game Predicted: Patriots over Vikings.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots
Score/Rolling Percentage: 1 for 3; 53% (18 for 34)
2017, Patriots over Falcons;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Patriots over Falcons.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots
Score/Rolling Percentage: 3 for 3; 55% (17 for 31)
2016, Broncos over Panthers;
Game Predicted: Patriots over Cardinals.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Panthers
Score/Rolling Percentage: 0 for 3; 50% (14 for 28)
2015, Patriots over Seahawks;
Game Predicted: Seahawks over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Seahawks
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 56% (14 for 25)
2014, Seahawks over Broncos;
Game Predicted: Seahawks over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Seahawks
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 55% (12 for 22)
2013, Ravens over 49ers;
Game Predicted: 49ers over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: 49ers
Score/Rolling Percentage: 1 for 3; 53% (10 for 19)
2012, Giants over Patriots;
Game Predicted: Giants over Ravens.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots
Score/Rolling Percentage: 1 for 3; 56% (9 for 16)
2011, Packers over Steelers;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Packers and Steelers
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Steelers
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 62% (8 for 13)
2010, Saints over Colts;
Game Predicted: Purposeful lack of prediction.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Colts
Score/Rolling Percentage: 0 for 1; 60% (6 for 10)
2009, Steelers over Cardinals;
Game Predicted: Steelers over Eagles.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Steelers
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 67% (6 for 9)
2008, Giants over Patriots;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Giants vs the Patriots
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 67% (4 for 6)
2007, Colts over Bears;
Game Predicted: Saints over Colts.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Colts
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 67% (2 for 3)
Here are the links to my previous predictions, analysis, winners, and losers (from most recent to my first post in 2007):
2023, Eagles vs Chiefs;
Game Predicted: 49ers over Chiefs
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Chiefs
Score/Rolling Percentage: x for x; xx.x% (24+x for 43+3)
2022, Rams over Bengals;
Game Predicted: Chiefs over Rams
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Rams
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 56.5% (26 for 46)
2021, Bucaneers over Chiefs;
Game Predicted: Bucaneers over Chiefs
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Bucaneers
Score/Rolling Percentage: 3 for 3; 55.8% (24 for 43)
2020, Chiefs over 49ers;
Game Predicted: 49ers over Titans
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: 49ers
Score/Rolling Percentage: 1 for 3; 52.5% (21 for 40)
2019, Patriots over Rams;
Game Predicted: Saints over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 54% (20 for 37)
2018, Eagles over Patriots;
Game Predicted: Patriots over Vikings.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots
Score/Rolling Percentage: 1 for 3; 53% (18 for 34)
2017, Patriots over Falcons;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Patriots over Falcons.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots
Score/Rolling Percentage: 3 for 3; 55% (17 for 31)
2016, Broncos over Panthers;
Game Predicted: Patriots over Cardinals.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Panthers
Score/Rolling Percentage: 0 for 3; 50% (14 for 28)
2015, Patriots over Seahawks;
Game Predicted: Seahawks over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Seahawks
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 56% (14 for 25)
2014, Seahawks over Broncos;
Game Predicted: Seahawks over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Seahawks
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 55% (12 for 22)
2013, Ravens over 49ers;
Game Predicted: 49ers over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: 49ers
Score/Rolling Percentage: 1 for 3; 53% (10 for 19)
2012, Giants over Patriots;
Game Predicted: Giants over Ravens.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots
Score/Rolling Percentage: 1 for 3; 56% (9 for 16)
2011, Packers over Steelers;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Packers and Steelers
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Steelers
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 62% (8 for 13)
2010, Saints over Colts;
Game Predicted: Purposeful lack of prediction.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Colts
Score/Rolling Percentage: 0 for 1; 60% (6 for 10)
2009, Steelers over Cardinals;
Game Predicted: Steelers over Eagles.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Steelers
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 67% (6 for 9)
2008, Giants over Patriots;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Giants vs the Patriots
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 67% (4 for 6)
2007, Colts over Bears;
Game Predicted: Saints over Colts.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Colts
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 67% (2 for 3)
Sunday, January 06, 2019
2018-2019 NFL Playoff Preview
It's been a few years since I've attempted to predict the outcome of the playoffs prior to the kick-off of the first game (at least here). And it's not as though anyone still follows this blog. This is the dark corner of the internet where no one every goes. Accordingly, as this will simply be a repository of where I record my incorrect playoff predictions for myself so I will abridge the intro. On to the games:
Wild Card Round
AFC Saturday 1st game: Colts at Texans
Tough game to call. These teams faced each other twice in the regular season with both teams going 1-1. There was a whopping six point TOTAL point difference for both games, with the first going into overtime. Interestingly, it was the away team that won both games. Does that guarantee the Colts the win? No, but it's enough to bet on.
Winner: Colts
NFC Saturday 2nd game: Seahawks at Cowboys
The Seahawks faced off against the Cowboys once in the regular season in Seattle and the Seahawks took the win. The Seahawks beat 2 out of 3 playoff bound opponents at home but did not defeat a single playoff team on the road. Whereas the Cowboys defeated both playoff bound teams that dared enter Cowboy's Stadium. I don't think that the Cowboys will have too much difficulty disposing of Seattle.
Winner: Cowboys
AFC Sunday 1st game: Chargers at Ravens
I'd love to see the Texans win so the Patriots don't have to face either of these teams. That's highly unlikely, however. The Chargers and Ravens faced off in Baltimore week 16 with the Ravens handing the Chargers their only road loss of the year! That says something pretty amazing about both teams. So who walks away with the win this week? Not only did the Ravens have the easiest road to the post-season facing only 3 other playoff teams but I think the experienced leadership of the Chargers overcomes the Raven's novice QB. Chargers squeak by in a shootout.
Winner: Chargers
NFC Sunday 2nd game: Eagles at Bears
Not much to say here except that the Eagles have struggled all year! With QB issues and a defense that has struggled the Bears should coast into the next round behind their stifling Defense and up-and-comer Trubiski.
Winner: Bears
Divisional Round:
AFC Saturday 1st game: Colts at Chiefs
The Colts have been the hottest team in the NFL down the stretch. They started the season 1-5 and finished it 9-1 with their last loss coming week 13 on the road to the Jaguars. The Chiefs have played 6 games against playoff bound teams but only managed to win 2 of them: At the Chargers week 1 (losing at home to them week 11) and beating the Ravens at home week 14 (but only by 3 points). I expect Luck and the Colts to make a game of it, perhaps with a late push to nearly win the game; but don't expect 4th quarter heroics like we saw that last time these two teams met in the post season. The Chiefs Offense will be able to out-gun the Colts.
Winner: Chiefs
NFC Saturday 2nd game: Bears at Rams
A rematch of week 14 but switching stadiums. You heard it hear first: The Rams are the most overrated team in the NFL this year. The Rams faced-off against 6 teams in the playoffs losing both on the road and only taking 3 of 4 at home (Dropping one to the early-exit Eagles week 15). The secret to stopping the Rams is stopping Todd Gurley, a "secret" the Bears already proved they were more than capable of accomplishing. Expect another low-scoring, field position duel in which Chicago wins a ticket to the NFC Championship game for the first time since 2011.
Winner: Bears
AFC Sunday 1st game: Chargers at Patriots
Two teams known more for their offense this year than their defense. Two teams that both beat the Chiefs (Chargers 29-28 in KC with a last second 2 point conversion, Patriots 43-40 in Foxboro after leading 24-9 at the half.) The Charger's offense brought them the win, the Patriot's defense held on to their victory. Even though the Chargers only dropped 1 game on the road this year, the Patriots were perfect at home, and, as they say, "Defense wins championships." Edge goes to...
Winner: Patriots
NFC Sunday 2nd game: Cowboys at Saints
This appears to be the easiest game to predict out of the Divisional round. The Cowboys dropped 3 out of 4 games against play-off bound opponents on the road. Of course, their only win against a playoff team on the road was a 13-10 win over, you guessed it, the Saints! However, if any team in the NFC needs home field advantage, it's the 'Boys. It's tough to beat the same team twice on their own field. I don't expect this game to be close beyond the first quarter.
Winner: Saints
Championship Round:
NFC
Bears at Saints
This game may be the best game of the playoffs, including the Super Bowl. The Saint's vaunted offense facing off against the Bear's stifling defense! When dealing with a strength vs strength we have to look at weakness vs weakness. The Saint's defense has been inconsistent at best. The same could be said for the Bear's offense however, the likelihood that Trubisky will have a short field is better due to the Bears +9 takeaway stat over the Saints. This will be a close one and points off of turnovers will be huge.
Winner: Bears
AFC
Patriots at Chiefs
There are two x-factors in this game and they aren't necessarily whom you expect. Mahomes has been playing amazingly, setting or tying records all season. Brady ISN'T the other x-factor, however. It's Belichick. Jedi Master (or Sith Lord depending on how you feel about the Patriots) Belichick has an entire season of film on Mahomes at this point. Plus their victory over them week 6 and an additional playoff game. Bill has the intelligent players necessary to sufficiently confuse Mahomes presnap and the Chiefs defense won't be able to stop Brady & co. The only team that can prevent the Patriots from moving on in this game is the Patriots.
Winner: Patriots
Super Bowl
Bears vs Patriots
1985 revisited! But this time it'll be far more competitive. Similarly to when the Bears took on the Colts in 2006 it will be the Bear's defense that has gotten them to the big dance. The biggest difference is, this time the Bears aren't lead by Rex Grossman, but rather the exciting Mitchel Trubisky! The Patriots won't have faced many notable defenses getting to this point in the playoffs. The Bears will have faced some even more potent offenses than the Patriots. The result? Brady joins the ranks of Jim Kelly with four Super Bowl losses and the Patriots attain sole possession of most Super Bowl losses by a team with 6. That's right, I'm predicting the Bears hoist the Lombardi trophy for the first time in 33 years!
Winner: Bears
This year should be a GREAT set of playoff games with an exciting Super Bowl. I hope I'm wrong on the final outcome but I call it like I see it.
Wild Card Round
AFC Saturday 1st game: Colts at Texans
Tough game to call. These teams faced each other twice in the regular season with both teams going 1-1. There was a whopping six point TOTAL point difference for both games, with the first going into overtime. Interestingly, it was the away team that won both games. Does that guarantee the Colts the win? No, but it's enough to bet on.
Winner: Colts
NFC Saturday 2nd game: Seahawks at Cowboys
The Seahawks faced off against the Cowboys once in the regular season in Seattle and the Seahawks took the win. The Seahawks beat 2 out of 3 playoff bound opponents at home but did not defeat a single playoff team on the road. Whereas the Cowboys defeated both playoff bound teams that dared enter Cowboy's Stadium. I don't think that the Cowboys will have too much difficulty disposing of Seattle.
Winner: Cowboys
AFC Sunday 1st game: Chargers at Ravens
I'd love to see the Texans win so the Patriots don't have to face either of these teams. That's highly unlikely, however. The Chargers and Ravens faced off in Baltimore week 16 with the Ravens handing the Chargers their only road loss of the year! That says something pretty amazing about both teams. So who walks away with the win this week? Not only did the Ravens have the easiest road to the post-season facing only 3 other playoff teams but I think the experienced leadership of the Chargers overcomes the Raven's novice QB. Chargers squeak by in a shootout.
Winner: Chargers
NFC Sunday 2nd game: Eagles at Bears
Not much to say here except that the Eagles have struggled all year! With QB issues and a defense that has struggled the Bears should coast into the next round behind their stifling Defense and up-and-comer Trubiski.
Winner: Bears
Divisional Round:
AFC Saturday 1st game: Colts at Chiefs
The Colts have been the hottest team in the NFL down the stretch. They started the season 1-5 and finished it 9-1 with their last loss coming week 13 on the road to the Jaguars. The Chiefs have played 6 games against playoff bound teams but only managed to win 2 of them: At the Chargers week 1 (losing at home to them week 11) and beating the Ravens at home week 14 (but only by 3 points). I expect Luck and the Colts to make a game of it, perhaps with a late push to nearly win the game; but don't expect 4th quarter heroics like we saw that last time these two teams met in the post season. The Chiefs Offense will be able to out-gun the Colts.
Winner: Chiefs
NFC Saturday 2nd game: Bears at Rams
A rematch of week 14 but switching stadiums. You heard it hear first: The Rams are the most overrated team in the NFL this year. The Rams faced-off against 6 teams in the playoffs losing both on the road and only taking 3 of 4 at home (Dropping one to the early-exit Eagles week 15). The secret to stopping the Rams is stopping Todd Gurley, a "secret" the Bears already proved they were more than capable of accomplishing. Expect another low-scoring, field position duel in which Chicago wins a ticket to the NFC Championship game for the first time since 2011.
Winner: Bears
AFC Sunday 1st game: Chargers at Patriots
Two teams known more for their offense this year than their defense. Two teams that both beat the Chiefs (Chargers 29-28 in KC with a last second 2 point conversion, Patriots 43-40 in Foxboro after leading 24-9 at the half.) The Charger's offense brought them the win, the Patriot's defense held on to their victory. Even though the Chargers only dropped 1 game on the road this year, the Patriots were perfect at home, and, as they say, "Defense wins championships." Edge goes to...
Winner: Patriots
NFC Sunday 2nd game: Cowboys at Saints
This appears to be the easiest game to predict out of the Divisional round. The Cowboys dropped 3 out of 4 games against play-off bound opponents on the road. Of course, their only win against a playoff team on the road was a 13-10 win over, you guessed it, the Saints! However, if any team in the NFC needs home field advantage, it's the 'Boys. It's tough to beat the same team twice on their own field. I don't expect this game to be close beyond the first quarter.
Winner: Saints
Championship Round:
NFC
Bears at Saints
This game may be the best game of the playoffs, including the Super Bowl. The Saint's vaunted offense facing off against the Bear's stifling defense! When dealing with a strength vs strength we have to look at weakness vs weakness. The Saint's defense has been inconsistent at best. The same could be said for the Bear's offense however, the likelihood that Trubisky will have a short field is better due to the Bears +9 takeaway stat over the Saints. This will be a close one and points off of turnovers will be huge.
Winner: Bears
AFC
Patriots at Chiefs
There are two x-factors in this game and they aren't necessarily whom you expect. Mahomes has been playing amazingly, setting or tying records all season. Brady ISN'T the other x-factor, however. It's Belichick. Jedi Master (or Sith Lord depending on how you feel about the Patriots) Belichick has an entire season of film on Mahomes at this point. Plus their victory over them week 6 and an additional playoff game. Bill has the intelligent players necessary to sufficiently confuse Mahomes presnap and the Chiefs defense won't be able to stop Brady & co. The only team that can prevent the Patriots from moving on in this game is the Patriots.
Winner: Patriots
Super Bowl
Bears vs Patriots
1985 revisited! But this time it'll be far more competitive. Similarly to when the Bears took on the Colts in 2006 it will be the Bear's defense that has gotten them to the big dance. The biggest difference is, this time the Bears aren't lead by Rex Grossman, but rather the exciting Mitchel Trubisky! The Patriots won't have faced many notable defenses getting to this point in the playoffs. The Bears will have faced some even more potent offenses than the Patriots. The result? Brady joins the ranks of Jim Kelly with four Super Bowl losses and the Patriots attain sole possession of most Super Bowl losses by a team with 6. That's right, I'm predicting the Bears hoist the Lombardi trophy for the first time in 33 years!
Winner: Bears
This year should be a GREAT set of playoff games with an exciting Super Bowl. I hope I'm wrong on the final outcome but I call it like I see it.
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