It has been nearly a year since I've posted something in this invaluable media outlet! There are so many competing reasons as to why that is. Suffice to say: Shame on me! But how could I miss this opportunity to review how I did with this year's NFL predictions and provide teams with bulletin board material and an early exit from the playoffs by predicting that they will do well!
Though I didn't post my preseason predictions, I did write them down. Let's review them now: (You will know it is time to turn the page when you hear the chimes ring, like this: *chimes*. Let's begin... now. Sorry, just what I thought of.)
But here's how I would have done:
AFC:
East: Prediction: New England. Actual: New England. No surprises there.
West: Prediction: Denver. Actual: Denver. Manning plus Welker? Of course they're gonna break records!
North: Prediction: Pittsburgh. Actual: Cincinnati. I did accurately predict that the defending Super Bowl Champions would not make it to the playoffs to defend their title.
South: Prediction: Houston. Actual: Indianapolis. I hang my head in shame here, as the Texans won a whopping two games this year! Though I did have the Colts in the playoffs, just as a Wild Card team.
Wild Card: Predictions: San Diego and Indianapolis. Actual: Kansas City and San Diego (I'm usually pretty proud when I get one of these right.)
NFC:
East: Prediction: Dallas. Actual: Philadelphia (In my defense, the 'Boys had a chance to make my prediction correct in week 17. However, at the end of the game Orton decided to do his best Romo impersonation and throw a season killing INT)
West: Prediction: San Fransisco. Actual: Seattle. I had both the '9ers and the Seahawks in the playoffs, just swapped who would win the division and who would grab the Wild Card
North: Prediction: Detroit. Actual: Green Bay. I know. Detroit. I get it. (Second year in a row they've burned me. They won't do it a third time!)
South: Prediction: Atlanta. Actual: Carolina. I'm not too proud to say it: Shocked! Carolina came out of nowhere in my opinion.
Wild Card: Prediction: Green Bay and Seattle. Actual: San Fransisco and New Orleans.
Without further ado. JMO's Playoff Predictions
AFC
Wild Card Round:
Kansas City at Indianapolis
The Queen of Hearts will tell you that I went super-nerdy this year. I created an expansive Excel spread sheet that tells me almost anything I want to know. And here's one thing that you probably won't read anywhere else: Based on strength of schedule, the Chiefs had the third easiest schedule in the entire NFL this year. Their 9 - 0 start might look impressive on the outside, but they didn't play anyone. The Colts were in the middle of the road with their schedule. Sorry KC, started the year with a bang, ended the regular season with a whimper, and you bow out of the post season early.
Winner: Colts
San Diego at Cincinnati
It doesn't look so good for a team when you need two teams ahead of you to choke the post season away in week 17 and require OT to win your own game against an entire team of back-ups. Normally, I say that the playoff team that lays down and allows another team to get into the post season usually ends up losing to the very team they allowed in. KC won't have to worry about that. They won't get past Indy and SD won't be moving past Cinci.
Winner: Bengals
Divisional Round:
Cincinnati at Patriots
Cincinnati handed the Patriots their first (and one of the few uncontroversial) losses this season. However, that was in Cincinnati, in October, and while Brady and Co. were still getting acquainted. Now that Tom Terrific has had an entire season to work with his WR core they will score more than the six points they managed in these two teams' first meeting. Oh, did I mention it'll be in Foxboro in the freezing cold?
Winner: Patriots
Colts at Broncos
I predicted this game last year but it never occurred as the Colts lost early to the Ravens. The NFL loves it when great story-lines like this one happen in the Post Season. This will be a shoot out but Peyton will give Colts fans a reason not to cheer for him as he and his high powered offense send Andrew Luck-just-ran-out and the Colts back to Indy.
Winner: Broncos
Championship Round:
Patriots at Broncos
Here's what I wrote when I predicted this match-up last year: "Historically, the Patriots haven't done well against the Broncos. They knocked the Patriots out of the playoffs on a famous pick six that was fumbled out of the end zone, but called out on the 1. Historically, Peyton doesn't do well against the Patriots. Which trend will continue? Belichick is in Manning's head." Here's what I want to add: The Patriots have proven they can defeat the Broncos having done so week 12. Yes, that was in Foxboro but consider this: The only time Peyton managed to squeak past the Patriots in the Post Season was in a dome. Now they'll be playing in Denver. Whatever advantage Peyton might have by playing at home, the weather is going to even the playing field. Really, this game is a coin flip, but if I'm flipping a coin between Peyton and Brady, there's only one side that coin can land on.
Winner: Patriots
NFC
Wild Card Round:
New Orleans at Philadelphia
Of all of the teams to make it to the Playoffs, the Saints had the hardest road there. They had the 6th most difficult schedule this year and defeated some impressive teams. Of course, they also lost to the Jets and the Rams. They are fortunate that they've drawn the Eagles in the first round. The Eagles managed a 10-6 record this year, but with the fourth easiest schedule. The only two teams in the Playoffs with easier seasons are the Chiefs and the Packers. The Eagles won't be able to defeat Brees and the Saints.
Winner: Saints
San Fransisco at Green Bay
The Packers have done little to impress this year. They had the second easiest schedule for playoff teams. The teams they've defeated have the lowest winning percentage, and the teams they've lost to have the lowest winning percentage as well! They narrowly got past the Bears to even get to the post season. The 49ers haven't lived up to expectations this year either. I'll never count out any playoff team but I don't expect to see Aaron Rogers in the next round
Winner: 49ers
Divisional Round:
San Fransisco at Carolina
Carolina is on a roll heading into the post season. Their only loss in the last 12 games was to the impressive Saints in New Orleans (though that does include a controversial laden victory over the Patriots.) Carolina tiptoed past the 49ers by a single point in San Fran earlier this year. San Fran has an eerily similar winning streak going into the playoffs as the last time they lost was to the Saints in New Orleans. Something many analysts forget is that West Coast teams playing in the East are not as successful as the converse of that. It will be very close, but Cam will move on.
Winner: Panthers
New Orleans at Seattle
While the Saints were fortunate to draw the Eagles in the Wild Card round, they are not so fortunate in the Divisional Round. The Saints have the distinction of losing to the Seahawks in the 2011 playoffs when Seattle won the division with a 7-9 record. And the Saints lost to Seattle in Seattle this year 34-7. It will be a tall task for Drew to get past Russell.
Winner: Seahawks
Championship Round:
Carolina at Seattle
This is a rematch of a week one contest where the Seahawks won in Carolina by 5 points. That game is too far in the distant past to be a barometer for this one. The real story of this game is that it will be highlighting the next generation of QB in the NFL: Cam Newton vs Russell Wilson. These two signal callers are quite similar: both run an option laden offense and often lead their teams in rushing yards. But that also means that their respective defenses will know exactly how to stop the offenses that have brought them to this level. Which QB will be able to morph his game into one that will overcome his opponent's defense? Which coach will make the necessary half time adjustments? Which team will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl?
Winner: Seattle
Super Bowl
Seahawks vs Patriots
If we look at the games the Patriots have lost this year, many of them were against run & gun/option QBs. Seattle has struggled away from CenturyLink Field. Belichick and company have lots of experience in the post season and in the Super Bowl (Brady has been the Patriot's starter for 12 years [not counting the year he was knocked out week 1], if he can get to the Super Bowl this year he will have played in the Super Bowl and amazing 50% of the seasons he's been starting! 50%!). Russell Wilson has played two whole games in the Post Season prior to this year, defeating the injury ridden Redskins before losing to the Falcons. One factor that may loom large in this game is injuries. The Patriots are depleted in many areas. This may just be their undoing.
Winner: Seahawks
There you have it. So now it's likely that the Super Bowl will be a battle of the big cats with Dalton and the Bengals facing off against Newton and the Panthers just because I predicted something other than that. Feel free to provide your predictions. What a great time of year!
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