It's that one week per year when I can sit down to write this: my most favorite of posts: A preview of the four possible Super Bowls! (Could this really be the sixth time I've written this post?)
If you'd like to see how I've done in the past, you can read my previous versions here (I'll list them with the year the Super Bowl happened along with the actual teams that faced off): 2007, Colts over Bears; 2008, Giants over Patriots; 2009, Steelers over Cardinals; 2010, Saints over Colts, and 2011, Packers over Steelers.
For those who read this years preseason predictions know that half of my Patriots/Eagles Super Bowl prediction is still in it, and for those who read my Playoff predictions know that half of my Ravens/Saints game is still alive. Let's see how I do now that there are only four teams left.
And now, as you've become accustomed, here are all four Super Bowl break-downs, from least compelling to most: (get your wallets out and call Vegas and Atlantic City. Put your money on the two teams I pick to win to lose BIG)
Ravens vs Giants
And the chant from rises from the stands and fans of both teams support their respective quarterbacks with the same mantra: "Just don't mess up! Just don't mess up!" The Ravens and the Giants are strangely similar. They can play amazingly well against excellent teams (Baltimore beat Pittsburgh twice this year and the Giants beat the Patriots in Foxboro and nearly handed the Packers their first loss of the season) but they both also play down to poorer teams! (The Giants lost to Washington and the Ravens caved to the Seahawks!) They both have strong defenses with inconsistent offenses. Nothing says a thrilling Super Bowl like great defense against mediocre offense. Sure it's a rematch of Super Bowl XXXV, but how many people even remember that the Ravens won that game? This is the game I predict. Winner: Giants (Loser: The grounds crew that has to returf between the 20's)
Ravens vs 49ers
There's something wrong with a match-up when the most compelling story is the fact that the head coaches are brothers. Besides, we already had the Harbaugh bowl, John won. [As you read this, hear the movie preview voice in your head]: "Coming this February... Joe "Listen, I'm elite too" Flaco and the Baltimore Ravens take on Alex "Seriously, I was the first pick of the draft" Smith and his 49ers. Listen as the balls hit the ground like the Battle of Britain as incomplete passes litter the field. Watch as the pigskin flies through the air off the foot of punters and field-goal kickers alike!" Winner: (John wins again) Ravens (Loser: Field Goal net operators)
Patriots vs 49ers
After much consideration, this is the game that I'd like to see. You'll find a further explanation of this below. There is an interesting, though lesser known angle to this game. Tom Brady grew up idolizing Joe Montana and was a huge fan of the 49ers. He was even in the stands to see "the catch" (the original catch that elevated the 49ers over the Cowboys in January of 1982). The seasoned veteran vs the rebirth of a former perennial powerhouse. Winner: Patriots (Loser: Casual football fans)
Patriots vs Giants
This is the game that everyone wants to see. A rematch of 2008. Brady seeks revenge, Eli seeks respect. Can Brady's amazing offense score on the Giants powerful D? Can New England's woeful defense stop Eli and his mediocre offense? If the Patriots win there will be "too little too late" talk, "too bad it wasn't 2008." If the Giants win, it will be a long time before we hear the end of it! "Eli's better than Peyton, Eli's better than Brady, the Giants stopped the perfect season and nearly did it again this year, they knocked the 15-1 team out of the playoffs and defeated the Patriots three times in their last three meetings, and on and on and on. The only thing that would make this game bearable is if the Patriots dish out another severe thumping akin to the one from which Tebow is now recovering. Bottom line, you don't beat Belichick twice in the same year. Winner: Patriots (Loser: Anyone standing near a Giants fan)
In years past, I've had a good feeling regarding who was going to win the Conference Championship games (regardless as to how wrong I turned out to be). Not so this year. I won't be surprised if any of these games took place.
That's my opinion, what's yours?
Monday, January 16, 2012
Monday, January 02, 2012
2011 - 2012 Playoff Preview
Seems the only topic that brings me back to my blog is sports. (Politics will begins shortly, but it's just too far away for me right now.) So, time for me to review how my preseason predictions panned out. In this post I'll also be cursing at least four teams by predicting that they will do well in the playoffs!
You can find my preseason preview in the previous post (I haven't posted since September!). Here's how I did:
AFC
East
Prediction: Patriots
Actual: Patriots
And they are the #1 seed! One for one!
West
Prediction: Chargers
Actual: Broncos
It is a QB driven league, and somehow Tebow came out on top! (I have three friends who have agreed that if Denver wins it all, it confirms a higher power and they will come to church with me :D)
North
Prediction: Steelers
Actual: Ravens
I'm giving myself 3/4 of a point on this one because the Steelers grabbed a wild card spot I picked the Ravens as a wild card team. So I had both teams going to the playoffs, and both teams made it.
South
Prediction: Colts
Actual: Texans
No fair! Peyton had surgery on his neck the day after I made my predictions! I'm giving myself 3/4 of a point here as well because I accurately predicted that if Peyton wasn't effective that Houston would take the division.
Wild Card
Prediction: Jets & Ravens
Actual: Bengals & Steelers
Wow. Two teams from the AFC North. While the NFC East has done this in the past, this is no easy feat.
NFC
East
Prediction: Eagles
Actual: Giants
I drank the kool-aid. I believed the hype. I was wrong. Can I get some props for accurately predicting that the Eagles season will be a failure? (Of course, I thought they'd make it into the playoffs before collapsing.)
West
Prediction: Cardinals
Actual: 49ers
I picked the 49ers last year, does that count for anything? No. Ok.
North
Prediction: Packers
Actual: Packers
Hey, look! I got the gimme!
South
Prediction: Falcons
Actual: Saints
Another 3/4 of a point for getting both teams (Saints and Falcons) in the playoffs, just missing who'd take the division and who the wild card. Last year I picked the Saints and the Falcons took it. This year it was vise versa. So next year I'll pick the Saints because I want to see the Falcons take the division.
Wild Card
Prediction: Cowboys & Saints
Actual: Falcons & Lions
I predicted 6 of the 12 Playoff Teams. Three from each Conference. One better than last year! I guess I'm getting better. Only half of my predicted Super Bowl remains. Go Pats. :)
Playoff Predictions
Alright, so based on how I did this year we can expect 5.5 of my Playoff predictions to be accurate.
Alright, get ready to call Vegas and place your bets! Here we go:
AFC
Wild Card Round:
Steelers at Broncos
I'm most confident about this game. Broncos rely on the run, Steelers stop the run. If the game is on Tebow's shoulders he'll carry it all the way to the golf course. Give Reothlisberger the extra week of rest, play Batch. It will still be a blow out.
Winner: Steelers
Bengals at Texans
This is the hardest of the 1st round games to pick. I want the Bengals to win so that they go to New England. Both teams have been a surprise this year; The Bengals with how well they've done and the Texans with how well they've done considering their injuries. Unfortunately, I don't think the Bengals will be able to overcome Houston.
Winner: Texans
Divisional Round:
Steelers at Patriots
(If the Bengals could beat Houston, their post season ends here) The Patriots have been giving up huge leads, making amazing adjustments, and scoring tons of unanswered points. You don't win that way in the Playoffs and you don't win that way against the Steelers. I would have said that the Patriots would benefit from home field advantage if A) they hadn't given up a giant lead to the Bills last week, B) they hadn't been unable to overcome the Giants lead at home earlier this year, or C) they weren't facing another cold weather team in the Steelers. The deck is stacked against the Patriots in this match-up.
Winner: Steelers
Texans at Ravens
Houston was lucky to draw the Bengals in the Wild Card round. But Baltimore is too good for the wounded Texans. The only thing that makes this a close game is the fact that the Ravens play down to their opponents.
Winner: Ravens
Championship Round:
Steelers at Ravens
It's been said "You don't beat the same team three times in one year." The Ravens will. The just have the Steelers' number this year. This will be a great game and will go right down to the wire but Flaco will emerge victorious.
Winner: Ravens
NFC
Wild Card Round:
Falcons at Giants
Like the Steelers, the Falcons have a better record than the team they have to travel to face. And like the Steelers, it won't make a huge difference. It really didn't matter who won the Sunday night game week 17 because both the Giants and the Cowboys were losing to the Falcons this round.
Winner: Falcons
Lions at Saints
Another great match-up. This will be a very entertaining game to watch for those without a "horse in the race." It will be a great battle but in the end it will be very frustrating for Lions fans who will watch their team self destruct with penalties.
Winner: Saints
Divisional Round:
Saints at 49ers
The 49ers surprised a lot of people with the amount of success they had this year. Hosting a playoff game would normally be a big thrill for them. Unless they are facing the Saints. A record setting year for Brees and the Saints continues as they send San Francisco packing.
Winner: Saints
Falcons at Packers
Yet another great game! The first true test of the Packers since they nearly lost to the Giants. Some of you may be asking, what about the Chiefs? Shouldn't have been a test. Just goes to prove how difficult it is to go undefeated in a 16 game season. This is a tough game to call based on how potent Rodgers and the Packers offense has looked. But the Falcons may surprise a lot of people. It'll be very close.
Winner: Packers
Championship Round:
Saints at Packers
The last NFC game will be a rematch of the first game of the season. And what a rematch it will be. Brees' performance has been overshadowed by the Packers' nearly perfect season. Green Bay's loss may bump Brees to the front runner in the MVP race. Green Bay also faced weaker teams this year than the Saints did. Both Championship Games will rival the Super Bowl in excitement and intensity. Brees and the Saints will end the Packer's pursuit as repeat Champions.
Winner: Saints
Super Bowl
Saints vs Ravens
While not the game the network is hoping for, what a game to watch! The red hot offense of the Saints versus the Stifling defense of the Ravens! They say that defense wins Championships but the top teams this year have been doing it with offense. In the end, the pundits will start discussing the possibility of a dynasty as Brees brings the Lombardi Trophy back to New Orleans for the second time in 3 years.
Winner: Saints
There you have it. So now it's likely that the Giants will shock the world again and beat Tebow in the Super Bowl. (My ideal is Bengals over Houston, New England over Cincinnati, and New England over the Ravens. Then New England facing Green Bay. But this is all fairly unlikely.) Feel free to provide your predictions. What a great time of year!
You can find my preseason preview in the previous post (I haven't posted since September!). Here's how I did:
AFC
East
Prediction: Patriots
Actual: Patriots
And they are the #1 seed! One for one!
West
Prediction: Chargers
Actual: Broncos
It is a QB driven league, and somehow Tebow came out on top! (I have three friends who have agreed that if Denver wins it all, it confirms a higher power and they will come to church with me :D)
North
Prediction: Steelers
Actual: Ravens
I'm giving myself 3/4 of a point on this one because the Steelers grabbed a wild card spot I picked the Ravens as a wild card team. So I had both teams going to the playoffs, and both teams made it.
South
Prediction: Colts
Actual: Texans
No fair! Peyton had surgery on his neck the day after I made my predictions! I'm giving myself 3/4 of a point here as well because I accurately predicted that if Peyton wasn't effective that Houston would take the division.
Wild Card
Prediction: Jets & Ravens
Actual: Bengals & Steelers
Wow. Two teams from the AFC North. While the NFC East has done this in the past, this is no easy feat.
NFC
East
Prediction: Eagles
Actual: Giants
I drank the kool-aid. I believed the hype. I was wrong. Can I get some props for accurately predicting that the Eagles season will be a failure? (Of course, I thought they'd make it into the playoffs before collapsing.)
West
Prediction: Cardinals
Actual: 49ers
I picked the 49ers last year, does that count for anything? No. Ok.
North
Prediction: Packers
Actual: Packers
Hey, look! I got the gimme!
South
Prediction: Falcons
Actual: Saints
Another 3/4 of a point for getting both teams (Saints and Falcons) in the playoffs, just missing who'd take the division and who the wild card. Last year I picked the Saints and the Falcons took it. This year it was vise versa. So next year I'll pick the Saints because I want to see the Falcons take the division.
Wild Card
Prediction: Cowboys & Saints
Actual: Falcons & Lions
I predicted 6 of the 12 Playoff Teams. Three from each Conference. One better than last year! I guess I'm getting better. Only half of my predicted Super Bowl remains. Go Pats. :)
Playoff Predictions
Alright, so based on how I did this year we can expect 5.5 of my Playoff predictions to be accurate.
Alright, get ready to call Vegas and place your bets! Here we go:
AFC
Wild Card Round:
Steelers at Broncos
I'm most confident about this game. Broncos rely on the run, Steelers stop the run. If the game is on Tebow's shoulders he'll carry it all the way to the golf course. Give Reothlisberger the extra week of rest, play Batch. It will still be a blow out.
Winner: Steelers
Bengals at Texans
This is the hardest of the 1st round games to pick. I want the Bengals to win so that they go to New England. Both teams have been a surprise this year; The Bengals with how well they've done and the Texans with how well they've done considering their injuries. Unfortunately, I don't think the Bengals will be able to overcome Houston.
Winner: Texans
Divisional Round:
Steelers at Patriots
(If the Bengals could beat Houston, their post season ends here) The Patriots have been giving up huge leads, making amazing adjustments, and scoring tons of unanswered points. You don't win that way in the Playoffs and you don't win that way against the Steelers. I would have said that the Patriots would benefit from home field advantage if A) they hadn't given up a giant lead to the Bills last week, B) they hadn't been unable to overcome the Giants lead at home earlier this year, or C) they weren't facing another cold weather team in the Steelers. The deck is stacked against the Patriots in this match-up.
Winner: Steelers
Texans at Ravens
Houston was lucky to draw the Bengals in the Wild Card round. But Baltimore is too good for the wounded Texans. The only thing that makes this a close game is the fact that the Ravens play down to their opponents.
Winner: Ravens
Championship Round:
Steelers at Ravens
It's been said "You don't beat the same team three times in one year." The Ravens will. The just have the Steelers' number this year. This will be a great game and will go right down to the wire but Flaco will emerge victorious.
Winner: Ravens
NFC
Wild Card Round:
Falcons at Giants
Like the Steelers, the Falcons have a better record than the team they have to travel to face. And like the Steelers, it won't make a huge difference. It really didn't matter who won the Sunday night game week 17 because both the Giants and the Cowboys were losing to the Falcons this round.
Winner: Falcons
Lions at Saints
Another great match-up. This will be a very entertaining game to watch for those without a "horse in the race." It will be a great battle but in the end it will be very frustrating for Lions fans who will watch their team self destruct with penalties.
Winner: Saints
Divisional Round:
Saints at 49ers
The 49ers surprised a lot of people with the amount of success they had this year. Hosting a playoff game would normally be a big thrill for them. Unless they are facing the Saints. A record setting year for Brees and the Saints continues as they send San Francisco packing.
Winner: Saints
Falcons at Packers
Yet another great game! The first true test of the Packers since they nearly lost to the Giants. Some of you may be asking, what about the Chiefs? Shouldn't have been a test. Just goes to prove how difficult it is to go undefeated in a 16 game season. This is a tough game to call based on how potent Rodgers and the Packers offense has looked. But the Falcons may surprise a lot of people. It'll be very close.
Winner: Packers
Championship Round:
Saints at Packers
The last NFC game will be a rematch of the first game of the season. And what a rematch it will be. Brees' performance has been overshadowed by the Packers' nearly perfect season. Green Bay's loss may bump Brees to the front runner in the MVP race. Green Bay also faced weaker teams this year than the Saints did. Both Championship Games will rival the Super Bowl in excitement and intensity. Brees and the Saints will end the Packer's pursuit as repeat Champions.
Winner: Saints
Super Bowl
Saints vs Ravens
While not the game the network is hoping for, what a game to watch! The red hot offense of the Saints versus the Stifling defense of the Ravens! They say that defense wins Championships but the top teams this year have been doing it with offense. In the end, the pundits will start discussing the possibility of a dynasty as Brees brings the Lombardi Trophy back to New Orleans for the second time in 3 years.
Winner: Saints
There you have it. So now it's likely that the Giants will shock the world again and beat Tebow in the Super Bowl. (My ideal is Bengals over Houston, New England over Cincinnati, and New England over the Ravens. Then New England facing Green Bay. But this is all fairly unlikely.) Feel free to provide your predictions. What a great time of year!
Sunday, September 04, 2011
2011-2012 NFL Preview
Well, the strike is over (Yes, it was a strike.) which means it's that time again! Time for another edition of JMO's NFL preview! (Is it unfortunate that few things get me to post now a-days? If you think so, skip the post and comment. Let me know what you'd like to read about on JMO) For those of you still reading: Get out those pencils and jot down what you'll read here because it's sure to be completely incorrect by week 5!
As you've become accustomed, I'll be going division by division predicting the winners of each. We'll begin with the NFC seeing as they won the Super Bowl last year.
NFC North (Bears, Lions, Packers, Vikings)
The Lions have been making great strides over the past few off-seasons. They are a very trendy pick to make the post season this year. However, I don't think they'll be able to overcome the powerful Packers and I don't think they'll wind up as one of the two best non-division-winning teams in the NFC. It will be close, but I expect them to be watching the game come January. And while Chicago and Minnesota (who acquired a younger QB in 34 year old McNabb) have made some improvements, Green Bay is going to run away with this division.
winner: Packers
AFC North (Bengals, Browns, Ravens, Steelers)
There are some questions in this division. But they mostly are regarding if the Browns and Bengals will win more games combined than the Steelers. Big Ben managed to stay out of hand-cuffs and courtrooms in this off-season so they won't have those distractions. Considering how they did last year, maybe that's a strike against them. The Ravens do stand a chance at the playoffs. But Flaco will likely only be able to get them there as a wild card.
winner: Steelers
NFC East (Cowboys, Eagles, Giants, Redskins)
Here is a division that's gotten lots of attention in the off-season. I'd be remiss if I started by discussing any team other than the Eagles. They've certainly become the Miami Heat/New York Yankees of the NFL. The question is can this team of divas mesh into a cohesive unit? If not, will the on-again/off-again Giants or the they're-so-full-of-talent-but-can't-win-when-it-counts Cowboys take 1st in this division. The problem is, like the Miami Heat, the Eagles have now set them up with expectations: The season will be a failure if they don't win the Championship. The Heat couldn't live up to it. Will the Eagles learn from their mistakes?
winner: Eagles
AFC East (Bills, Dolphins, Jets, Patriots)
Wow! This is a division that had an off-season chess match. The Jets and the Patriots both improved their rosters. If any team other than New England signed both Albert Haynesworth and ChadJohnson Ocho-Cinqo I'd say they were headed for disaster. However, somehow Belichick and company manage to succeed with characters such as these (see Corey Dillon and even Randy Moss for a season and a half. And remember, they got Randy for a 4th round draft pick and traded him for a 3rd round pick!) Yes, you can infer from these comments that the Bills and Dolphins will be irrelevant this year. When all is said and done, I'm not drinking the Sanchez kool-aid.
winner: Patriots
NFC South (Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers, Saints)
This may become one of the hottestly contested divisions in the NFL. With Matt Ryan at the helm the Falcons are poised to take the division back from the red hot Saints. You can't even count out the Buccaneers this year. It will be interesting to see how Cam Newton does for the Panthers, but they are in a rebuilding year. The Saints have not fared as well this year in free agency as some other teams. I think they'll make it to the playoffs -- but not as the division winner.
winner: Falcons
AFC South (Colts, Jaguars, Texans, Titans)
This division is shrouded in uncertainty more than any other time in recent memory! Peyton had neck surgery over the summer and was not able to work-out with his regular trainer due to the strike. Everyone expects him to start week 1, but can he be effective? And if he's not, who takes first in this division? The Texans, who everyone loves in the preseason but who collapses in the regular season? The Titans, who some think are in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes? The Jaguars, who are built to beat the Colts but no one else? Even if they lose the first 4 games, they will still make the playoffs -- but can the Schaub/Johnson tandem make it so that the Colts slip into the post season as a wild card? Nope.
winner: Colts
NFC West (Cardinals, 49ers, Rams, Seahawks)
Can the Seahawks ride the wave they created when they became the first team to enter the playoffs with a losing record, and then advanced past the first round? Kolb to the Cardinals, Rice to the Seahawks, McDaniels with the Rams, a complete defensive overhaul for the 49ers. Which of these teams will become first round fodder in the playoffs? The team with the most weapons is Arizona.
winner: Cardinals
AFC West (Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs, Raiders)
It is still a quarterback driven league and this division is rife with quarterback controversy. Can Campbell be the hero for Oakland? Cassel lost his major supporter (McDaniels) in Kansas City, the Broncos have three quarterbacks: the coach wants one, the locker room the second, and the fans the third! And then there is Rivers. And while his supporting cast may have changed, he is still an excellent quarterback who just seems to have some difficulty delivering when it counts. But this is, after all, a quarterback driven league.
winner: Chargers
NFC Wild Card Teams: Cowboys & Saints
AFC Wild Card Teams: Jets & Ravens
And here's how the playoffs would play out:
NFC:
BYE: Packers & Eagles
Wild Card Weekend: Saints defeat the Cardinals in a thriller and the Cowboys fall to the Falcons.
Divisional Round: Eagles beat the Falcons in the battle of the birds and the Packers send the Saints packing
Conference Championship: Eagles over Packers
AFC:
BYE: Patriots & Steelers
Wild Card Weekend: The Ravens beat the Chargers and the Jets shock the Colts
Divisional Round: Patriots end the Ravens' season and the Jets beat the Steelers
Conference Championship: Brady gets his revenge on Sanchez and sends the Jets home
Super Bowl:
Patriots vs Eagles
And in the rematch of Super Bowl XXXIX the result is the same. The Eagles fall to the Patriots and suffer the same fate as their NBA counterpart -- a stacked deck that folds on the river.
Those are my predictions. What are yours?
As you've become accustomed, I'll be going division by division predicting the winners of each. We'll begin with the NFC seeing as they won the Super Bowl last year.
NFC North (Bears, Lions, Packers, Vikings)
The Lions have been making great strides over the past few off-seasons. They are a very trendy pick to make the post season this year. However, I don't think they'll be able to overcome the powerful Packers and I don't think they'll wind up as one of the two best non-division-winning teams in the NFC. It will be close, but I expect them to be watching the game come January. And while Chicago and Minnesota (who acquired a younger QB in 34 year old McNabb) have made some improvements, Green Bay is going to run away with this division.
winner: Packers
AFC North (Bengals, Browns, Ravens, Steelers)
There are some questions in this division. But they mostly are regarding if the Browns and Bengals will win more games combined than the Steelers. Big Ben managed to stay out of hand-cuffs and courtrooms in this off-season so they won't have those distractions. Considering how they did last year, maybe that's a strike against them. The Ravens do stand a chance at the playoffs. But Flaco will likely only be able to get them there as a wild card.
winner: Steelers
NFC East (Cowboys, Eagles, Giants, Redskins)
Here is a division that's gotten lots of attention in the off-season. I'd be remiss if I started by discussing any team other than the Eagles. They've certainly become the Miami Heat/New York Yankees of the NFL. The question is can this team of divas mesh into a cohesive unit? If not, will the on-again/off-again Giants or the they're-so-full-of-talent-but-can't-win-when-it-counts Cowboys take 1st in this division. The problem is, like the Miami Heat, the Eagles have now set them up with expectations: The season will be a failure if they don't win the Championship. The Heat couldn't live up to it. Will the Eagles learn from their mistakes?
winner: Eagles
AFC East (Bills, Dolphins, Jets, Patriots)
Wow! This is a division that had an off-season chess match. The Jets and the Patriots both improved their rosters. If any team other than New England signed both Albert Haynesworth and Chad
winner: Patriots
NFC South (Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers, Saints)
This may become one of the hottestly contested divisions in the NFL. With Matt Ryan at the helm the Falcons are poised to take the division back from the red hot Saints. You can't even count out the Buccaneers this year. It will be interesting to see how Cam Newton does for the Panthers, but they are in a rebuilding year. The Saints have not fared as well this year in free agency as some other teams. I think they'll make it to the playoffs -- but not as the division winner.
winner: Falcons
AFC South (Colts, Jaguars, Texans, Titans)
This division is shrouded in uncertainty more than any other time in recent memory! Peyton had neck surgery over the summer and was not able to work-out with his regular trainer due to the strike. Everyone expects him to start week 1, but can he be effective? And if he's not, who takes first in this division? The Texans, who everyone loves in the preseason but who collapses in the regular season? The Titans, who some think are in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes? The Jaguars, who are built to beat the Colts but no one else? Even if they lose the first 4 games, they will still make the playoffs -- but can the Schaub/Johnson tandem make it so that the Colts slip into the post season as a wild card? Nope.
winner: Colts
NFC West (Cardinals, 49ers, Rams, Seahawks)
Can the Seahawks ride the wave they created when they became the first team to enter the playoffs with a losing record, and then advanced past the first round? Kolb to the Cardinals, Rice to the Seahawks, McDaniels with the Rams, a complete defensive overhaul for the 49ers. Which of these teams will become first round fodder in the playoffs? The team with the most weapons is Arizona.
winner: Cardinals
AFC West (Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs, Raiders)
It is still a quarterback driven league and this division is rife with quarterback controversy. Can Campbell be the hero for Oakland? Cassel lost his major supporter (McDaniels) in Kansas City, the Broncos have three quarterbacks: the coach wants one, the locker room the second, and the fans the third! And then there is Rivers. And while his supporting cast may have changed, he is still an excellent quarterback who just seems to have some difficulty delivering when it counts. But this is, after all, a quarterback driven league.
winner: Chargers
NFC Wild Card Teams: Cowboys & Saints
AFC Wild Card Teams: Jets & Ravens
And here's how the playoffs would play out:
NFC:
BYE: Packers & Eagles
Wild Card Weekend: Saints defeat the Cardinals in a thriller and the Cowboys fall to the Falcons.
Divisional Round: Eagles beat the Falcons in the battle of the birds and the Packers send the Saints packing
Conference Championship: Eagles over Packers
AFC:
BYE: Patriots & Steelers
Wild Card Weekend: The Ravens beat the Chargers and the Jets shock the Colts
Divisional Round: Patriots end the Ravens' season and the Jets beat the Steelers
Conference Championship: Brady gets his revenge on Sanchez and sends the Jets home
Super Bowl:
Patriots vs Eagles
And in the rematch of Super Bowl XXXIX the result is the same. The Eagles fall to the Patriots and suffer the same fate as their NBA counterpart -- a stacked deck that folds on the river.
Those are my predictions. What are yours?
Saturday, July 23, 2011
A New Horizon
After much consideration and some assistance, I have entered the world of YouTube!
Shortly, Fillion Films will have it's first short film on YouTube. In the meantime, you'll have to settle for the trailer. Please visit this site:
Paint by Numbers Trailer
Don't forget to check back soon for the outtakes of this movie!
("Like" the trailer and tell your friends!)
Now that you've seen the trailer, Check out the short film:
Paint by Numbers
Write your review in the comments section of this post!
Shortly, Fillion Films will have it's first short film on YouTube. In the meantime, you'll have to settle for the trailer. Please visit this site:
Paint by Numbers Trailer
Don't forget to check back soon for the outtakes of this movie!
("Like" the trailer and tell your friends!)
Now that you've seen the trailer, Check out the short film:
Paint by Numbers
Write your review in the comments section of this post!
Sunday, June 12, 2011
"King Dirk"
There are only two "King James" that I'm aware of: The king of England from 1603-1625 and the English translation of the Bible that he commissioned.
Dirk Nowitzki just did in Dallas what Lebron has never been able to accomplish in Cleveland: Win it all with "one great player." Not only was Lebron unable to win in Cleveland, but he also couldn't win in Miami with one of the most impressive "supporting casts" ever assembled. Perhaps his move to Miami has shown that he isn't as great as everyone previously supposed.
Even if Miami had won both of these games at home, the story wouldn't be about "King James," rather it would have been "King Dwyane." If anyone has proven himself to be a leader and a talented player regardless of the game situation, it's Dwyane Wade.
Congratulations MVP Dirk and the Dallas Mavericks on your hard-fought, well-deserved NBA Championship!
Dirk Nowitzki just did in Dallas what Lebron has never been able to accomplish in Cleveland: Win it all with "one great player." Not only was Lebron unable to win in Cleveland, but he also couldn't win in Miami with one of the most impressive "supporting casts" ever assembled. Perhaps his move to Miami has shown that he isn't as great as everyone previously supposed.
Even if Miami had won both of these games at home, the story wouldn't be about "King James," rather it would have been "King Dwyane." If anyone has proven himself to be a leader and a talented player regardless of the game situation, it's Dwyane Wade.
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
Things That Make Me Angry
I have three things that I feel the need to share that really get my goat, rub me the wrong way, ruffle my feathers, and other animal related colloquialisms that mean "increase one's ire."
First: People who misuse percentages. This may sound a little wacky but hear me out. I was watching a news story regarding the rising cost of gas. The anchor displayed four categories that together make up the price of fuel. They were "Distribution, Taxes, Refining, and Crude." She was comparing 2010 gas data to the current trends using percentages. Her claim was that we shouldn't feel so terrible about the increase in crude prices, because the amount we were paying for distribution, taxes, and refining had decreased based on the percentages. Well DUH! With the price of crude sky-rocketing the way it is and everything else remaining the same, of course the percentages are going to decrease!
Here's the table they were displaying:
.................2010....2011
Refining.......36%......20%
Taxes..........14%.......7%
Distribution...15%.......8%
Crude..........35%......65%
"Taxes and Distribution are down nearly 50%" the TV personality tried to assert, "and Refining is down by 16 points!" Come on!
Now, work with me here: (For the sake of argument, let's use round numbers) let's say that gas in 2010 was $2 a gallon and it's now $4 a gallon. Now, we'll plug actual numbers into this table instead of percentages:
..................2010......2011
Refining.......$0.72......$0.80
Taxes..........$0.28......$0.28
Distribution...$0.30......$0.30
Crude..........$0.70......$2.60
Anyone really think that average Joe watching this news cast is going to break out their trusty TI81 and calculate this fallacy? No, Ms Newscaster, the other three portions of the cost of gas are not decreasing. Crude is so expensive it's name is literal and figurative. It's time to stop misusing percentages (and open up the US reserves, but that's for another post).
Second: Hypocrisy in unions. The NFL Player's Union, to be specific. The NFL players are trying to claim that they are pawns in the greedy hands of the overbearing owners. And in a show of solidarity they've asked the incoming rookies not to attend the draft celebration in New York on Thursday. Anyone paying attention to this so-called lockout knows that the player's union is going to "concede" to a rookie salary cap in order to get some of their own demands met. (I say "concede" because there's no reason for the Player's Union to fight the cap. Why should an 8 year veteran be making less than someone who's never played a down in the NFL?) Why, then, would this trodden-on group of players turn and do the same thing to the incoming rookies?! Hey, players: They aren't part of your union, so they aren't part of your strike (I mean "lockout"). They are going to be your pawns at the bargaining table so please allow them to be knights at the podium on Thursday.
Finally: I've decided that if I can't afford the things I really want, like my iPhone, Internet, cable, (basically the overall lifestyle to which I've become accustomed) I'm just going to go to my neighbors and demand money from them. After all, that's what the government does, right? Cut spending? What's that? No, I'm just going to require everyone to give me cash. And if you were giving me money before, now you have to give me more. I know everyone has less right now. The economy is hard, but how else can I continued to live the way I want to live? Now, if the "powers-that-be" decided that they were going to lead by example, tighten the belt a little bit, then I might be encouraged to do so as well. However, until that happens: If you've taken the time to read this post, please send me $5.00. Thank you.
First: People who misuse percentages. This may sound a little wacky but hear me out. I was watching a news story regarding the rising cost of gas. The anchor displayed four categories that together make up the price of fuel. They were "Distribution, Taxes, Refining, and Crude." She was comparing 2010 gas data to the current trends using percentages. Her claim was that we shouldn't feel so terrible about the increase in crude prices, because the amount we were paying for distribution, taxes, and refining had decreased based on the percentages. Well DUH! With the price of crude sky-rocketing the way it is and everything else remaining the same, of course the percentages are going to decrease!
Here's the table they were displaying:
.................2010....2011
Refining.......36%......20%
Taxes..........14%.......7%
Distribution...15%.......8%
Crude..........35%......65%
"Taxes and Distribution are down nearly 50%" the TV personality tried to assert, "and Refining is down by 16 points!" Come on!
Now, work with me here: (For the sake of argument, let's use round numbers) let's say that gas in 2010 was $2 a gallon and it's now $4 a gallon. Now, we'll plug actual numbers into this table instead of percentages:
..................2010......2011
Refining.......$0.72......$0.80
Taxes..........$0.28......$0.28
Distribution...$0.30......$0.30
Crude..........$0.70......$2.60
Anyone really think that average Joe watching this news cast is going to break out their trusty TI81 and calculate this fallacy? No, Ms Newscaster, the other three portions of the cost of gas are not decreasing. Crude is so expensive it's name is literal and figurative. It's time to stop misusing percentages (and open up the US reserves, but that's for another post).
Second: Hypocrisy in unions. The NFL Player's Union, to be specific. The NFL players are trying to claim that they are pawns in the greedy hands of the overbearing owners. And in a show of solidarity they've asked the incoming rookies not to attend the draft celebration in New York on Thursday. Anyone paying attention to this so-called lockout knows that the player's union is going to "concede" to a rookie salary cap in order to get some of their own demands met. (I say "concede" because there's no reason for the Player's Union to fight the cap. Why should an 8 year veteran be making less than someone who's never played a down in the NFL?) Why, then, would this trodden-on group of players turn and do the same thing to the incoming rookies?! Hey, players: They aren't part of your union, so they aren't part of your strike (I mean "lockout"). They are going to be your pawns at the bargaining table so please allow them to be knights at the podium on Thursday.
Finally: I've decided that if I can't afford the things I really want, like my iPhone, Internet, cable, (basically the overall lifestyle to which I've become accustomed) I'm just going to go to my neighbors and demand money from them. After all, that's what the government does, right? Cut spending? What's that? No, I'm just going to require everyone to give me cash. And if you were giving me money before, now you have to give me more. I know everyone has less right now. The economy is hard, but how else can I continued to live the way I want to live? Now, if the "powers-that-be" decided that they were going to lead by example, tighten the belt a little bit, then I might be encouraged to do so as well. However, until that happens: If you've taken the time to read this post, please send me $5.00. Thank you.
Friday, February 18, 2011
30 Hour Famine
Thank you for reading this post.
During the weekend of February 25th & 26th I will be purposefully fasting for (at least) 30 hours. Why do such a thing? Well, when Jesus was talking about our "acts of righteousness" in Matthew 6 he says, "When you fast..." signifying that, as one of His followers, this is an activity in which I should be participating. Additionally, disciplining your body when it's telling you it needs food can assist you in disciplining yourself when you are tempted by sin. Finally, I'll be fasting on these specific dates in an effort to raise money to help feed starving children around the world.
That's right, I'm going hungry for food.
That's where you come in. I would like to give you the opportunity to sponsor my fast. Sponsoring me at $1 per hour that I fast would feed a child for 1 month. If $30 is not an option for you, any amount that you can give is greatly and sincerely appreciated. You do not need to feel bound by the "amount per hour" model, even if you can donate $2, that is money that will help those in need. (Donations of over $30 are also welcome).
The organization through which I participate in the famine is called World Vision. Please feel free to visit their website and if you have any questions regarding the famine, please contact me or you can visit the 30 Hour Famine Website.
You can donate online on my personal donation site here. Any amount that you give will also be counted in the total amount for the Youth Group that I co-lead. We are expecting between 30-40 high school students to willingly go without food for more than a day to raise money for starving people worldwide.
If you are unable to give financially, please pray for me, my fellow leaders, and the youth that will be participating. This can be a live changing event. It truly helps to put into perspective the abundance that we are blessed with in America.
If you are feeling adventurous, feel free to support us by fasting with us. We will have our pre-fast meal at noon on Friday the 25th and we will Break Fast on Saturday the 26th at 6 PM.
Thank you for reading this post. Thank you for visiting my donation website. And thank you for your support.
During the weekend of February 25th & 26th I will be purposefully fasting for (at least) 30 hours. Why do such a thing? Well, when Jesus was talking about our "acts of righteousness" in Matthew 6 he says, "When you fast..." signifying that, as one of His followers, this is an activity in which I should be participating. Additionally, disciplining your body when it's telling you it needs food can assist you in disciplining yourself when you are tempted by sin. Finally, I'll be fasting on these specific dates in an effort to raise money to help feed starving children around the world.
That's right, I'm going hungry for food.
That's where you come in. I would like to give you the opportunity to sponsor my fast. Sponsoring me at $1 per hour that I fast would feed a child for 1 month. If $30 is not an option for you, any amount that you can give is greatly and sincerely appreciated. You do not need to feel bound by the "amount per hour" model, even if you can donate $2, that is money that will help those in need. (Donations of over $30 are also welcome).
The organization through which I participate in the famine is called World Vision. Please feel free to visit their website and if you have any questions regarding the famine, please contact me or you can visit the 30 Hour Famine Website.
You can donate online on my personal donation site here. Any amount that you give will also be counted in the total amount for the Youth Group that I co-lead. We are expecting between 30-40 high school students to willingly go without food for more than a day to raise money for starving people worldwide.
If you are unable to give financially, please pray for me, my fellow leaders, and the youth that will be participating. This can be a live changing event. It truly helps to put into perspective the abundance that we are blessed with in America.
If you are feeling adventurous, feel free to support us by fasting with us. We will have our pre-fast meal at noon on Friday the 25th and we will Break Fast on Saturday the 26th at 6 PM.
Thank you for reading this post. Thank you for visiting my donation website. And thank you for your support.
Saturday, January 22, 2011
All Four Super Bowl Previews V
It's hard to believe I've been doing this post 5 years in a row! Even though the Patriots loss was painful, and they really should be included in this post, I still enjoy breaking down all four possible Super Bowls, discussing who would win each one, which I'd like to see, which I think we'll see, and which one the league and the networks are pulling for.
If you'd like to see how I've done in the past, you can read my previous versions here (I'll list them with the year the Super Bowl happened along with the actual teams that faced off): 2007, Colts over Bears; 2008, Giants over Patriots; 2009, Steelers over Cardinals; and 2010, Saints over Colts.
Once again, you can expect me to set in stone the destiny of two teams by predicting that they will do well this week.
And now, all four Super Bowl break-downs, from least compelling to most:
Bears vs Jets
Even though they were in the Big Game in 2007, the Bears seem to be a surprise candidate this year. They've been fairly terrible since they fell to Peyton and the Colts. They've been picked against every round and the final game would be no different. If Ryan and Sanchez can defeat Manning, Brady, and Reothlisberger consecutively to get to the Super Bowl they'll have not trouble with Lovie and Culter. Winner: Jets(Loser: Next year's NFL fans having to listen to a victorious Rex Ryan)
Bears vs Steelers
Even though no one (except people who live in Illinois) really expect the Bears to put up much of a fight against either AFC team, they did get to the Super Bowl and could cause the Steelers some fits. If this is the game we see, the Steelers would likely be double digit favorites. This game does have the advantage of being a battle of two historic teams and CBS could leverage that. While this would give Big Ben his third ring (matching Brady) it would be his third win against teams that he was expected to beat but struggled (as he likely will if we see this game) just like he did against the Seahawks, Cardinals, and now the Bears. Obviously, he'll take a Super Bowl ring however he can get it, but Ben would rather face Green Bay. Winner: Steelers (Loser: Franchises with 5 Super Bowl wins as the Steeler would now be up by 2)
Packers vs Steelers
This game has a better storyline: Experienced Super Bowl QB vs an up-and-comer that everyone expects to elevate to the ranks of the likes of Brees, Brady, and Manning in the very near future. This is the game CBS will be bribing the refs to see. Two teams with nation-wide fan bases, two well loved QBs, and two teams that nearly everyone respects. The Steelers would have over-come the stifling D of the Jets but can they stop the high-octane Offense of the Packers? If Ben can win here, it would solidify him as worthy of his Super Bowl victories. This would be a very hard fought high scoring game and while I didn't pick this one as the most compelling game of the four, this is the game I think we'll see. Winner: Packers (Loser: Both Defensive Coordinators)
Packers vs Jets
This is the game I want to see. While I'd love to see Rex "Disrespect" Ryan lose two years in a row in the AFC Championship Game, the chances that the Steelers could beat the Packers and win their seventh ring is too great for my tastes. That and, honestly, Rex has devised a defense to stop Manning, Brady, and Reothlisberger; I'd love to see what he comes up with to try to stop Rogers and the Packers. The league would be more than happy to have this match-up as it represents what many are saying is the next generation of great Quarterbacks. Finally, I can't resist hoping to see both #6 seeds making it to the Super Bowl. To me, this would be the best possible game. Winner: Packers (Loser: Brett Favre)
There you have it. Is there a game you'd rather see? Did I pick the wrong winners? If you've got somethin' to say: be heard!
If you'd like to see how I've done in the past, you can read my previous versions here (I'll list them with the year the Super Bowl happened along with the actual teams that faced off): 2007, Colts over Bears; 2008, Giants over Patriots; 2009, Steelers over Cardinals; and 2010, Saints over Colts.
Once again, you can expect me to set in stone the destiny of two teams by predicting that they will do well this week.
And now, all four Super Bowl break-downs, from least compelling to most:
Bears vs Jets
Even though they were in the Big Game in 2007, the Bears seem to be a surprise candidate this year. They've been fairly terrible since they fell to Peyton and the Colts. They've been picked against every round and the final game would be no different. If Ryan and Sanchez can defeat Manning, Brady, and Reothlisberger consecutively to get to the Super Bowl they'll have not trouble with Lovie and Culter. Winner: Jets(Loser: Next year's NFL fans having to listen to a victorious Rex Ryan)
Bears vs Steelers
Even though no one (except people who live in Illinois) really expect the Bears to put up much of a fight against either AFC team, they did get to the Super Bowl and could cause the Steelers some fits. If this is the game we see, the Steelers would likely be double digit favorites. This game does have the advantage of being a battle of two historic teams and CBS could leverage that. While this would give Big Ben his third ring (matching Brady) it would be his third win against teams that he was expected to beat but struggled (as he likely will if we see this game) just like he did against the Seahawks, Cardinals, and now the Bears. Obviously, he'll take a Super Bowl ring however he can get it, but Ben would rather face Green Bay. Winner: Steelers (Loser: Franchises with 5 Super Bowl wins as the Steeler would now be up by 2)
Packers vs Steelers
This game has a better storyline: Experienced Super Bowl QB vs an up-and-comer that everyone expects to elevate to the ranks of the likes of Brees, Brady, and Manning in the very near future. This is the game CBS will be bribing the refs to see. Two teams with nation-wide fan bases, two well loved QBs, and two teams that nearly everyone respects. The Steelers would have over-come the stifling D of the Jets but can they stop the high-octane Offense of the Packers? If Ben can win here, it would solidify him as worthy of his Super Bowl victories. This would be a very hard fought high scoring game and while I didn't pick this one as the most compelling game of the four, this is the game I think we'll see. Winner: Packers (Loser: Both Defensive Coordinators)
Packers vs Jets
This is the game I want to see. While I'd love to see Rex "Disrespect" Ryan lose two years in a row in the AFC Championship Game, the chances that the Steelers could beat the Packers and win their seventh ring is too great for my tastes. That and, honestly, Rex has devised a defense to stop Manning, Brady, and Reothlisberger; I'd love to see what he comes up with to try to stop Rogers and the Packers. The league would be more than happy to have this match-up as it represents what many are saying is the next generation of great Quarterbacks. Finally, I can't resist hoping to see both #6 seeds making it to the Super Bowl. To me, this would be the best possible game. Winner: Packers (Loser: Brett Favre)
There you have it. Is there a game you'd rather see? Did I pick the wrong winners? If you've got somethin' to say: be heard!
Thursday, January 06, 2011
2010 - 2011 Playoff Preview
It's that time again: Time for me to review how my preseason predictions panned out. In this post I'll also be cursing at least four teams by predicting that they will do well in the playoffs!
You can find my preseason preview here. Here's how I did:
AFC
East
Prediction: Patriots
Actual: Patriots
Look, I got one!
West
Prediction: Chargers
Actual: Chiefs
At least I got the first two letters right!
(Other notable prediction: Raiders didn't finish last)
North
Prediction: Bengals (stop laughing)
Actual: Steelers
My biggest error was underestimating Pittsburgh without Big Ben. No MVP for him this year, huh?
South
Prediction: Jaguars
Actual: Colts
Up until the last two weeks of the season, this looked like it was going to happen! Especially when the Jaguars beat the Colts in the first half of the year.
Wild Card
Prediction: Jets & Ravens
Actual: Jets & Ravens
Wow. I don't know what to say! That's pretty impressive!
NFC
East
Prediction: Cowboys
Actual: Eagles
I couldn't have been more wrong in this one! I predicted Eagles last and Giants second to last. Ended the exact opposite.
West
Prediction: 49ers
Actual: Seahawks
In my defense, the Seahawks are the first time in NFL history to win their division with a losing record. And the 49ers weren't all that far out!
North
Prediction: Vikings
Actual: Bears
Can anyone make any sense out of this division?
South
Prediction: Saints
Actual: Falcons
I did say that the Falcons would surprise a lot of people. They even surprised me and took the division! I did have them in the playoffs as a wild card team.
Wild Card
Prediction: Redskins & Falcons
Actual: Packers & Saints
I predicted 5 of the 12 Playoff Teams. Not too shabby. However, my predicted Super Bowl isn't even possible.
Playoff Predictions
If my playoff predictions are anything like my season predictions this year then be sure to bet on the opposite of whomever I choose! I only had 5 weeks were I was able to predict more than 11 winners! And I had weeks where I was less than .500! It was sad!
Anyway, here we go:
AFC
Wild Card Round:
Jets at Colts
Tough tough game to call! The Colt's running game seems to be draped on the back of UConn's Donald Brown which leads one to believe that Peyton will be chucking the rock all over the field. But the strength of the Jet's defense is their cornerbacks, and they have two this year. Peyton can't just throw to his tight end all day, it's not Dallas Clark, he's out with injuries. Couple that with the fact that Manning has already thrown 17 INTs this year and while Revis and Cromartie only have 3 INTs between them, it's because QB's don't like to throw in their direction! Though I know the Colts are dangerous in the post season, I just don't think they can get past the Jets.
Winner: Jets
Ravens at Chiefs
I'm not really sure how the Chiefs snuck their way out of the AFC West. But I do know it's past their curfew and they will have to go back home. Cassel won't be able to compete with the Ravens solid Defense.
Winner: Ravens
Divisional Round:
Ravens at Steelers
The AFC Divisional round is a pair of Divisional Match-ups! The Ravens and Steelers split their games this year, each winning by three on the other teams turf. This will be a great game. Smash-mouth, up the middle, in your face football. In the end (hang on, let me flip a coin) the Ravens will end the Steelers bid to be the first team to win six rings.
Winner: Ravens
Jets at Patriots
One of the things the Patriots have going for them in this game is that they lost to the Jets earlier in the year. "Nobody beats the same team three times in one year" is a favorite mantra of many analysts. The other thing the Patriots have going for them is that they are playing the Jets. Without some favorable bounces, poor decisions by opposing teams, and, frankly, some dumb luck, the Jets aren't even in the playoffs. The match-ups they face against New England will prove to be insurmountable.
Winner: Patriots
Championship Round:
Ravens at Patriots
The Patriots will devour the chance to avenge the embarrassing loss they suffered to the Ravens in the Playoffs. Bending but not breaking, the Patriots young Defense gets all of their "Big game" jitters out of the way as Brady has his second post season game without an INT.
Winner: Patriots
NFC
Wild Card Round:
Packers at Eagles
This game is just as hard to predict as the Jets/Colts game. The difference is, while neither the Jets nor the Colts would make it to Dallas, I could see either of these teams headed to the big dance. That's what makes this game so difficult. Sending either team home could mess up all of my future predictions! When all is said and done, I think that, under the pressure, Vick will try to do too much and the Packers will come out on top.
Winner: Packers
Saints at Seahawks
Listening to sports radio, analysts are searching for any reason why the Saints might lose this game: the trip might be too much, the injuries to their running game, the field surface, playing with a ball specially designed to be invisible to the Saints. None of these will make a difference. Seahawks: You made history by being the only team with a losing record to host a playoff game. Enjoy playing golf next week.
Winner: Saints
Divisional Round:
Saints at Falcons
The Saints are in rough shape. The Falcons are firing on all cylinders. Unable to get a running game going the Saints are forced to the air where the Falcons intercept three of Drew's passes. This is where the defending champions bid for a repeat ends.
Winner: Falcons
Packers at Bears
I've never been able to put much stock in the Bears. And Aaron Rogers seems to be doing amazing things with Favre's old team. When all is said and done, I think the first three quarters will be competitive, but the Packers pull away in the fourth.
Winner: Packers
Championship Round:
Packers at Falcons
The NFL won't be thrilled that they have a couple of non-huge market teams in this game, but after the incredibly competitive battle that ensues, this game will be remembered for a long time! Ryan vs Rogers. Not the changing of the guard, but rather the new guard. A couple of QBs who will meet many more times in the post season. Home field advantage prevails.
Winner: Falcons
Super Bowl
Falcons vs Patriots
The Patriots bitterly remember their last trip to the Super Bowl. There is no chance that Bill Belichick let's that happen again. Young defense? No problem. Rookie Tight Ends? Best in the game. No Pro Bowl receivers? That's nothing new. This isn't the best possible Super Bowl for the casual fan. A more competitive game would be Falcons/Ravens, or even Packers/Steelers. But the way New England is playing, they are unstoppable. Patriots, true to form, win by 3.
Winner: Patriots
There you have it. So it's likely that the Eagles will beat the Packers and go on to beat the Colts in the Super Bowl, because I predicted otherwise. Feel free to provide your predictions. What a great time of year!
DOH! I had the NFC seeded incorrectly! The Packers were a Wild Card team which means they would have faced the Falcons if they won! I've already picked that game as I predicted the Packers defeating the Bears. Which means I have the falcons topping the Packers. My original picks would have had the Saints facing the Bears and I would have picked the Bears over the Saints. Which would lead to a Bears/Falcons Championship game. I don't see the Bears going into Atlanta and beating the Falcons. So my Super Bowl pick remains. Go Patriots!
You can find my preseason preview here. Here's how I did:
AFC
East
Prediction: Patriots
Actual: Patriots
Look, I got one!
West
Prediction: Chargers
Actual: Chiefs
At least I got the first two letters right!
(Other notable prediction: Raiders didn't finish last)
North
Prediction: Bengals (stop laughing)
Actual: Steelers
My biggest error was underestimating Pittsburgh without Big Ben. No MVP for him this year, huh?
South
Prediction: Jaguars
Actual: Colts
Up until the last two weeks of the season, this looked like it was going to happen! Especially when the Jaguars beat the Colts in the first half of the year.
Wild Card
Prediction: Jets & Ravens
Actual: Jets & Ravens
Wow. I don't know what to say! That's pretty impressive!
NFC
East
Prediction: Cowboys
Actual: Eagles
I couldn't have been more wrong in this one! I predicted Eagles last and Giants second to last. Ended the exact opposite.
West
Prediction: 49ers
Actual: Seahawks
In my defense, the Seahawks are the first time in NFL history to win their division with a losing record. And the 49ers weren't all that far out!
North
Prediction: Vikings
Actual: Bears
Can anyone make any sense out of this division?
South
Prediction: Saints
Actual: Falcons
I did say that the Falcons would surprise a lot of people. They even surprised me and took the division! I did have them in the playoffs as a wild card team.
Wild Card
Prediction: Redskins & Falcons
Actual: Packers & Saints
I predicted 5 of the 12 Playoff Teams. Not too shabby. However, my predicted Super Bowl isn't even possible.
Playoff Predictions
If my playoff predictions are anything like my season predictions this year then be sure to bet on the opposite of whomever I choose! I only had 5 weeks were I was able to predict more than 11 winners! And I had weeks where I was less than .500! It was sad!
Anyway, here we go:
AFC
Wild Card Round:
Jets at Colts
Tough tough game to call! The Colt's running game seems to be draped on the back of UConn's Donald Brown which leads one to believe that Peyton will be chucking the rock all over the field. But the strength of the Jet's defense is their cornerbacks, and they have two this year. Peyton can't just throw to his tight end all day, it's not Dallas Clark, he's out with injuries. Couple that with the fact that Manning has already thrown 17 INTs this year and while Revis and Cromartie only have 3 INTs between them, it's because QB's don't like to throw in their direction! Though I know the Colts are dangerous in the post season, I just don't think they can get past the Jets.
Winner: Jets
Ravens at Chiefs
I'm not really sure how the Chiefs snuck their way out of the AFC West. But I do know it's past their curfew and they will have to go back home. Cassel won't be able to compete with the Ravens solid Defense.
Winner: Ravens
Divisional Round:
Ravens at Steelers
The AFC Divisional round is a pair of Divisional Match-ups! The Ravens and Steelers split their games this year, each winning by three on the other teams turf. This will be a great game. Smash-mouth, up the middle, in your face football. In the end (hang on, let me flip a coin) the Ravens will end the Steelers bid to be the first team to win six rings.
Winner: Ravens
Jets at Patriots
One of the things the Patriots have going for them in this game is that they lost to the Jets earlier in the year. "Nobody beats the same team three times in one year" is a favorite mantra of many analysts. The other thing the Patriots have going for them is that they are playing the Jets. Without some favorable bounces, poor decisions by opposing teams, and, frankly, some dumb luck, the Jets aren't even in the playoffs. The match-ups they face against New England will prove to be insurmountable.
Winner: Patriots
Championship Round:
Ravens at Patriots
The Patriots will devour the chance to avenge the embarrassing loss they suffered to the Ravens in the Playoffs. Bending but not breaking, the Patriots young Defense gets all of their "Big game" jitters out of the way as Brady has his second post season game without an INT.
Winner: Patriots
NFC
Wild Card Round:
Packers at Eagles
This game is just as hard to predict as the Jets/Colts game. The difference is, while neither the Jets nor the Colts would make it to Dallas, I could see either of these teams headed to the big dance. That's what makes this game so difficult. Sending either team home could mess up all of my future predictions! When all is said and done, I think that, under the pressure, Vick will try to do too much and the Packers will come out on top.
Winner: Packers
Saints at Seahawks
Listening to sports radio, analysts are searching for any reason why the Saints might lose this game: the trip might be too much, the injuries to their running game, the field surface, playing with a ball specially designed to be invisible to the Saints. None of these will make a difference. Seahawks: You made history by being the only team with a losing record to host a playoff game. Enjoy playing golf next week.
Winner: Saints
Divisional Round:
Saints at Falcons
The Saints are in rough shape. The Falcons are firing on all cylinders. Unable to get a running game going the Saints are forced to the air where the Falcons intercept three of Drew's passes. This is where the defending champions bid for a repeat ends.
Winner: Falcons
Packers at Bears
I've never been able to put much stock in the Bears. And Aaron Rogers seems to be doing amazing things with Favre's old team. When all is said and done, I think the first three quarters will be competitive, but the Packers pull away in the fourth.
Winner: Packers
Championship Round:
Packers at Falcons
The NFL won't be thrilled that they have a couple of non-huge market teams in this game, but after the incredibly competitive battle that ensues, this game will be remembered for a long time! Ryan vs Rogers. Not the changing of the guard, but rather the new guard. A couple of QBs who will meet many more times in the post season. Home field advantage prevails.
Winner: Falcons
Super Bowl
Falcons vs Patriots
The Patriots bitterly remember their last trip to the Super Bowl. There is no chance that Bill Belichick let's that happen again. Young defense? No problem. Rookie Tight Ends? Best in the game. No Pro Bowl receivers? That's nothing new. This isn't the best possible Super Bowl for the casual fan. A more competitive game would be Falcons/Ravens, or even Packers/Steelers. But the way New England is playing, they are unstoppable. Patriots, true to form, win by 3.
Winner: Patriots
There you have it. So it's likely that the Eagles will beat the Packers and go on to beat the Colts in the Super Bowl, because I predicted otherwise. Feel free to provide your predictions. What a great time of year!
DOH! I had the NFC seeded incorrectly! The Packers were a Wild Card team which means they would have faced the Falcons if they won! I've already picked that game as I predicted the Packers defeating the Bears. Which means I have the falcons topping the Packers. My original picks would have had the Saints facing the Bears and I would have picked the Bears over the Saints. Which would lead to a Bears/Falcons Championship game. I don't see the Bears going into Atlanta and beating the Falcons. So my Super Bowl pick remains. Go Patriots!
Thursday, November 25, 2010
The Danger of Twitter
I have an apology to all of my faithful readers: You will never be able to follow me on Twitter. Wait, let me insert a caveat: You will never be able to follow me on Twitter unless I become famous in some way and my producers require me to have a Twitter account for which I hire an out-of-college, out-of-work person to ghost-Tweet for me. (I just think it's hysterical to hear the 60 year old news anchor suggest that I visit him on Facebook or follow him on Twitter. Yeah, right. Oh, and Brad Pitt has nothing better to do with his time than Tweet what he just consumed at the local deli.)
Now I'm sure some of you are crushed and wondering why you will never be able to follow me on Twitter. Simply put: Twitter is dangerous.
To begin with, Twitter encourages immediacy. Rather than taking some time to process whatever it may be that you want to communicate, a Twitter culture not only promotes but expects an immediate response. Those of us who were once under the age of 10 have redoubtably heard the words "Think before you speak." How many times have you had to apologize for a word spoken in haste? James 1:19 says "Everyone should be quick to listen, slow to speak, and slow to become angry [emphasis added]." Sound advice for a Twitter-fied world.
The second danger hidden in Twitter is the 140 character limit. Just to give you an idea of what that looks like. If this post were 140 characters long it would have read: "I have an apology to all of my faithful readers: You will never be able to follow me on Twitter. Wait, let me insert a caveat: You will ne" The first sentence of my post completely unintentionally exhibits why a 140 character limit poses a danger: There is no venue for complete thoughts. In 140 characters one must be short and to the point. This often lends itself to extreme statements and certainly does not allow for explanation or (as my 4th grade English teacher always admonished) support and elaboration.
The combination of these to aspects of Twitter are bad enough: imagine a very short, tersely worded immediate response to a situation. That has trouble written all over it! Proverbs 13:3 says "Those who guard their lips preserve their lives, but those who speak rashly will come to ruin." brief unfiltered reactionary responses sure sounds like speaking rashly to me!
There is a third aspect of Twitter that I would not have initially predicted. Twitter, combined with its accessibility via our phones, has sparked an marked decrease in civil action. To explain what I mean I'd like to recount an incident that perfectly displays this phenomenon: Bill Nye "The Science Guy" collapsed while speaking to a group of University students. Did people jump and run to his aid? Did people pull out their cell phones and contact emergency authorities? No. They pulled out their cell phones and Tweeted the situation. Twitter has functionally resulted in people desiring to be the one to break the story. We are all now cable news stations fighting to be the first to report an incident rather than act on behalf of those involved!
All in all, Twitter resembles a field full of buried land mines waiting to destroy those that use it without forethought.
What do you know? I could have Tweeted that last sentence but no one would know why I felt that way. Put that on your phone and Tweet it!
Now I'm sure some of you are crushed and wondering why you will never be able to follow me on Twitter. Simply put: Twitter is dangerous.
To begin with, Twitter encourages immediacy. Rather than taking some time to process whatever it may be that you want to communicate, a Twitter culture not only promotes but expects an immediate response. Those of us who were once under the age of 10 have redoubtably heard the words "Think before you speak." How many times have you had to apologize for a word spoken in haste? James 1:19 says "Everyone should be quick to listen, slow to speak, and slow to become angry [emphasis added]." Sound advice for a Twitter-fied world.
The second danger hidden in Twitter is the 140 character limit. Just to give you an idea of what that looks like. If this post were 140 characters long it would have read: "I have an apology to all of my faithful readers: You will never be able to follow me on Twitter. Wait, let me insert a caveat: You will ne" The first sentence of my post completely unintentionally exhibits why a 140 character limit poses a danger: There is no venue for complete thoughts. In 140 characters one must be short and to the point. This often lends itself to extreme statements and certainly does not allow for explanation or (as my 4th grade English teacher always admonished) support and elaboration.
The combination of these to aspects of Twitter are bad enough: imagine a very short, tersely worded immediate response to a situation. That has trouble written all over it! Proverbs 13:3 says "Those who guard their lips preserve their lives, but those who speak rashly will come to ruin." brief unfiltered reactionary responses sure sounds like speaking rashly to me!
There is a third aspect of Twitter that I would not have initially predicted. Twitter, combined with its accessibility via our phones, has sparked an marked decrease in civil action. To explain what I mean I'd like to recount an incident that perfectly displays this phenomenon: Bill Nye "The Science Guy" collapsed while speaking to a group of University students. Did people jump and run to his aid? Did people pull out their cell phones and contact emergency authorities? No. They pulled out their cell phones and Tweeted the situation. Twitter has functionally resulted in people desiring to be the one to break the story. We are all now cable news stations fighting to be the first to report an incident rather than act on behalf of those involved!
All in all, Twitter resembles a field full of buried land mines waiting to destroy those that use it without forethought.
What do you know? I could have Tweeted that last sentence but no one would know why I felt that way. Put that on your phone and Tweet it!
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
The Basic Difference
I anticipate that this will be a very short post.
While watching Connecticut's gubernatorial debate I came to a realization regarding the basic economic difference between the two major political parties.
Connecticut is facing a major deficit in the next fiscal year and the two candidates have two nearly opposite solutions to this dilemma. The rational of both falls directly in line with the thinking of each party.
The Republican candidate has talked about cutting spending, possible layoffs of some state workers, and strictly adhering to budgetary mandates.
The Democratic candidate has practically promised higher taxes. He doesn't want to remove any of the services the government provides, nor does he want to take away anyone's job.
When whittled down to their lowest common denominators, the core of these plans can be explained in the following statement:
One wants wants many to sacrifice for the good of a few, the other wants a few to sacrifice for the good of many.
At a glance, one can conjure up several instances of either viewpoint. Neither side can claim rightness or declare wrongness. The question is: On which side do you stand?
While watching Connecticut's gubernatorial debate I came to a realization regarding the basic economic difference between the two major political parties.
Connecticut is facing a major deficit in the next fiscal year and the two candidates have two nearly opposite solutions to this dilemma. The rational of both falls directly in line with the thinking of each party.
The Republican candidate has talked about cutting spending, possible layoffs of some state workers, and strictly adhering to budgetary mandates.
The Democratic candidate has practically promised higher taxes. He doesn't want to remove any of the services the government provides, nor does he want to take away anyone's job.
When whittled down to their lowest common denominators, the core of these plans can be explained in the following statement:
At a glance, one can conjure up several instances of either viewpoint. Neither side can claim rightness or declare wrongness. The question is: On which side do you stand?
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Stephen Hawking's Leap of Faith
In his newest book, ironically titled The Grand Design the brilliant physicist Stephen Hawking made the following statement:
But I digress. It is not my intention to point out Mr. Hawking's logical fallacy by way of the Bible. Let us suppose, for a moment, that Mr. Hawking is correct: The mere existence of "a law such as gravity" does enable the universe to create ex nihilo (out of nothing). From the back of the classroom my had tentatively rises into the air. "Mr. Hawking?" I say hesitantly. "I don't mean to be rude, and I hope this isn't a dumb question but... If that's the case, where did the law of gravity come from?"
If Mr. Hawking is to be believed then there is an inherent organization to the universe which is in direct contradiction to the second law of thermodynamics. All nature moves to a point of equilibrium by way of entropy. It does not move to an imbalance such as suddenly creating matter out of nothing by way of the laws of gravity. A further expedition into this theory reveals that it stems for the concept that the state of energy in the universe is a net of zero. Gravity is negative energy and the energy of motion is positive. In its simplest form, the theory states that, in a vacuum, the combination of these two energies can spontaneously create protons. The problem that I have yet to see answered is that gravity requires mass and, if Einstein is correct, E=MC2 means that energy has mass so once again, we don't have creation ex niliho, we have gravity (reliant on mass) and energy (also reliant on some type of mass) creating other mass. Mass, energy, gravity, even a vacuum had to have some beginning. Any law or energy or even location that exists that might allow for the universe to "create itself" must have been designed by an intelligent architect.
Sorry, once again, I've digressed. I would ask Mr. Hawking where the space in which the universe created itself and the time used to measure it came from, but I believe I know his answer. And this is where he takes his true leap of faith.
You see, Mr. Hawking believes in what is known as a "multiverse." What is a "multiverse?" It is a completely unscientific untestable unprovable theory that our universe is simply one of many universes, either connected or parallel, in which life may exist and the laws of physics may differ. (I'm not making this up.) The M-theory (as it's occasionally called) allows for such a monumentally massive incomprehensibly immense number of galaxies, solar systems, and planets that the law of large numbers makes Earth and the life therein likely and trivial instead of statistically improbable and precious.
One other point I wanted to make is that in the quote Mr. Hawking states "the Universe can and will create itself from nothing. (Emphasis added)" If the universe will create itself from nothing why, in the history of mankind, have we not seen this occur. It has not been seen in nature, space, or the lab. Why did the universe create from nothing for such an extensive period of time to ensure that there was enough matter to fill the universe as we know it and then suddenly decide it was done creating?
So why is it more acceptable, perhaps more fashionable, to place one's faith in the M-theory for which there isn't even experiential anecdotal evidence rather than placing that faith in a purposeful intelligent creator deity? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller? Hawking?
Because there is a law such as gravity, the Universe can and will create itself from nothing. Spontaneous creation is the reason there is something rather than nothing, why the Universe exists, why we exist. It is not necessary to invoke God to light the blue touch paper and set the universe going.Another genius once again reaffirms Romans chapter 1 verse 22 which says "Although they claimed to be wise, they became fools." Interestingly enough, this verse is immediately preceded by this thought from verse 20: "For since the creation of the world God's invisible qualities—his eternal power and divine nature—have been clearly seen, being understood from what has been made, so that men are without excuse." And now, the upper echelon of academia are using "what has been made" to claim there is no God.
But I digress. It is not my intention to point out Mr. Hawking's logical fallacy by way of the Bible. Let us suppose, for a moment, that Mr. Hawking is correct: The mere existence of "a law such as gravity" does enable the universe to create ex nihilo (out of nothing). From the back of the classroom my had tentatively rises into the air. "Mr. Hawking?" I say hesitantly. "I don't mean to be rude, and I hope this isn't a dumb question but... If that's the case, where did the law of gravity come from?"
If Mr. Hawking is to be believed then there is an inherent organization to the universe which is in direct contradiction to the second law of thermodynamics. All nature moves to a point of equilibrium by way of entropy. It does not move to an imbalance such as suddenly creating matter out of nothing by way of the laws of gravity. A further expedition into this theory reveals that it stems for the concept that the state of energy in the universe is a net of zero. Gravity is negative energy and the energy of motion is positive. In its simplest form, the theory states that, in a vacuum, the combination of these two energies can spontaneously create protons. The problem that I have yet to see answered is that gravity requires mass and, if Einstein is correct, E=MC2 means that energy has mass so once again, we don't have creation ex niliho, we have gravity (reliant on mass) and energy (also reliant on some type of mass) creating other mass. Mass, energy, gravity, even a vacuum had to have some beginning. Any law or energy or even location that exists that might allow for the universe to "create itself" must have been designed by an intelligent architect.
Sorry, once again, I've digressed. I would ask Mr. Hawking where the space in which the universe created itself and the time used to measure it came from, but I believe I know his answer. And this is where he takes his true leap of faith.
You see, Mr. Hawking believes in what is known as a "multiverse." What is a "multiverse?" It is a completely unscientific untestable unprovable theory that our universe is simply one of many universes, either connected or parallel, in which life may exist and the laws of physics may differ. (I'm not making this up.) The M-theory (as it's occasionally called) allows for such a monumentally massive incomprehensibly immense number of galaxies, solar systems, and planets that the law of large numbers makes Earth and the life therein likely and trivial instead of statistically improbable and precious.
One other point I wanted to make is that in the quote Mr. Hawking states "the Universe can and will create itself from nothing. (Emphasis added)" If the universe will create itself from nothing why, in the history of mankind, have we not seen this occur. It has not been seen in nature, space, or the lab. Why did the universe create from nothing for such an extensive period of time to ensure that there was enough matter to fill the universe as we know it and then suddenly decide it was done creating?
So why is it more acceptable, perhaps more fashionable, to place one's faith in the M-theory for which there isn't even experiential anecdotal evidence rather than placing that faith in a purposeful intelligent creator deity? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller? Hawking?
Monday, August 30, 2010
2010-2011 NFL Preview
Some annual habits never die. Here is one of them. Are you seated with a beverage and a snack? (Historically, my NFL Previews tend to be lengthy). I hope you are in a comfortable chair because here is JMO's Fifth Annual NFL Preview!
As with most previous NFL Preview posts, I'll be breaking down each division. I'm sure my normal readers are aware that I have a strong AFC bias so I'm going to switch a few things up this year. Instead of starting in the AFC and moving to the NFC, I'm going to order the divisions by way of the compass, with the NFC going first each time. You will know it is time to turn the page when you hear the chimes ring, like this: "brlinghe" Let's begin, now:
NFC North (Bears, Lions, Packers, Vikings)
I always get a little sad when discussing this division. The Bears had their Super Bowl Shuffle. The Vikings had their Purple People Eaters. There is a reason the trophy is named the "Vince Lombardi" trophy! And even the Lions used to be feared. Now it's more like the Cubs, the Lionesses, the Deli workers, and the Norwegian re-enactors. But somebody's gotta win. The Bears are without Urlacher and the Lions are without a team of starting players of NFL caliber. That leaves Green Bay and Minnesota. Which one has Brett Favre this year? That's the one that will take the division.
winner: Vikings
AFC North (Bengals, Browns, Ravens, Steelers)
Steelers have to play the first four games (at least) with out Big Ben under center. You can probably beat the Bucs without him so the question is, can you climb out from a 1-3 start? I don't think so. Cleveland is still a non-entity leaving Ravens and Bengals to scrounge for the Division. With the addition of T.O. it's a coin flip for the Bengals if he'll elevate the team or elevate their liability. I think Palmer's offense over comes the Raven's defense.
winner: Bengals
NFC East (Cowboys, Eagles, Giants, Redskins)
There was lots of shifting in this division since the Colts lost to New Orleans in the Super Bowl. The Redskins are the clear winners of the off season but was it enough to vault them over the Cowboys? The Eagles are going to rely on Kolb (and Vick) to carry the team. The Giants still haven't realized that Coughlin doesn't know how to use Eli. Eagles land in last place with the Giants chasing them down. This maybe yet another year where a wild card comes from the NFC East as the Redskins advance to second in the division.
winner: Cowboys
AFC East (Bills, Dolphins, Jets, Patriots)
The AFC East is a lot murkier than it has been in the past. The Jets went out and signed a lot of great talent. Then they had a lot of great talent hold out. If they can sign Revis and find a use for LT, then Rex may have a winning team on his hands. But nobody plays the disrespect card better than Belichick and his Patriots. Brady's knee and ankle look fine, Welker is back, and they've got more RB's than they can dress. Oh yeah, Bills and Dolphins barely make a ripple.
winner: Patriots
NFC South (Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers, Saints)
I expect the Falcons to surprise a lot of people this year. Not to the point that they actually win the division, but they will spoil many-a-post-season hopes. They may even score a wild card spot. One has to respect the defending Super Bowl Champions, particularly when the team is nearly entirely intact. I don't expect a repeat, but they'll put up a good fight.
winner: Saints
AFC South (Colts, Jaguars, Texans, Titans)
One streak will continue while another ends: The team that loses the Super Bowl will not make it to the playoffs the following year. That streak will continue. The Colts hold the record for the most consecutive seasons with 12 or more wins. That streak will end this year. The Jaguars have been assembling a team designed to defeat the Colts for years. In 2011, it works.
winner: Jaguars
NFC West (Cardinals, 49ers, Rams, Seahawks)
Without a doubt, this is the most difficult division to predict. Part of it is because these are four teams that nearly everyone has forgotten about. Another part is that here are four teams trying really hard not to win. Which ever team comes out on top loses in the first round anyway. Cardinals are relying on Leinart and I think the Rams only have a punting team this year.
winner: 49ers
AFC West (Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs, Raiders)
The good news for the Broncos is that they have three fantastic back-up QBs that any team would love to have behind their star. The bad news is that one of them has to start. Another team that I'd put in the surprise column is the Raiders. I don't think they'll finish in last place in their division this year. The Chargers may have gotten rid of LT, but when you get rid of great talent it's because you've got even better, and they do, in Sproles.
winner: Chargers
NFC Wild Card Teams: Redskins & Falcons
AFC Wild Card Teams: Jets & Ravens
And here's how the playoffs would play out:
NFC:
BYE: Saints & Cowboys
Wild Card Weekend: Falcons upset the 49ers and Minnesota sends Washington packing.
Divisional Round: The Vikings hand the Cowboys another loss and the Saints beat the Falcons
Conference Championship: Vikings over Saints
AFC:
BYE: Patriots & Jaguars
Wild Card Weekend: Cincinnati defeats Baltimore and the Chargers top the Jets
Divisional Round: The Chargers shock the Patriots and it's the Jaguars over the Bengals
Conference Championship: The Jaguars end the Chargers season
Super Bowl:
Jaguars vs Vikings
Favre wins his final game in the NFL, cries like a baby, and retires - for good this time.
As with most previous NFL Preview posts, I'll be breaking down each division. I'm sure my normal readers are aware that I have a strong AFC bias so I'm going to switch a few things up this year. Instead of starting in the AFC and moving to the NFC, I'm going to order the divisions by way of the compass, with the NFC going first each time. You will know it is time to turn the page when you hear the chimes ring, like this: "brlinghe" Let's begin, now:
NFC North (Bears, Lions, Packers, Vikings)
I always get a little sad when discussing this division. The Bears had their Super Bowl Shuffle. The Vikings had their Purple People Eaters. There is a reason the trophy is named the "Vince Lombardi" trophy! And even the Lions used to be feared. Now it's more like the Cubs, the Lionesses, the Deli workers, and the Norwegian re-enactors. But somebody's gotta win. The Bears are without Urlacher and the Lions are without a team of starting players of NFL caliber. That leaves Green Bay and Minnesota. Which one has Brett Favre this year? That's the one that will take the division.
winner: Vikings
AFC North (Bengals, Browns, Ravens, Steelers)
Steelers have to play the first four games (at least) with out Big Ben under center. You can probably beat the Bucs without him so the question is, can you climb out from a 1-3 start? I don't think so. Cleveland is still a non-entity leaving Ravens and Bengals to scrounge for the Division. With the addition of T.O. it's a coin flip for the Bengals if he'll elevate the team or elevate their liability. I think Palmer's offense over comes the Raven's defense.
winner: Bengals
NFC East (Cowboys, Eagles, Giants, Redskins)
There was lots of shifting in this division since the Colts lost to New Orleans in the Super Bowl. The Redskins are the clear winners of the off season but was it enough to vault them over the Cowboys? The Eagles are going to rely on Kolb (and Vick) to carry the team. The Giants still haven't realized that Coughlin doesn't know how to use Eli. Eagles land in last place with the Giants chasing them down. This maybe yet another year where a wild card comes from the NFC East as the Redskins advance to second in the division.
winner: Cowboys
AFC East (Bills, Dolphins, Jets, Patriots)
The AFC East is a lot murkier than it has been in the past. The Jets went out and signed a lot of great talent. Then they had a lot of great talent hold out. If they can sign Revis and find a use for LT, then Rex may have a winning team on his hands. But nobody plays the disrespect card better than Belichick and his Patriots. Brady's knee and ankle look fine, Welker is back, and they've got more RB's than they can dress. Oh yeah, Bills and Dolphins barely make a ripple.
winner: Patriots
NFC South (Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers, Saints)
I expect the Falcons to surprise a lot of people this year. Not to the point that they actually win the division, but they will spoil many-a-post-season hopes. They may even score a wild card spot. One has to respect the defending Super Bowl Champions, particularly when the team is nearly entirely intact. I don't expect a repeat, but they'll put up a good fight.
winner: Saints
AFC South (Colts, Jaguars, Texans, Titans)
One streak will continue while another ends: The team that loses the Super Bowl will not make it to the playoffs the following year. That streak will continue. The Colts hold the record for the most consecutive seasons with 12 or more wins. That streak will end this year. The Jaguars have been assembling a team designed to defeat the Colts for years. In 2011, it works.
winner: Jaguars
NFC West (Cardinals, 49ers, Rams, Seahawks)
Without a doubt, this is the most difficult division to predict. Part of it is because these are four teams that nearly everyone has forgotten about. Another part is that here are four teams trying really hard not to win. Which ever team comes out on top loses in the first round anyway. Cardinals are relying on Leinart and I think the Rams only have a punting team this year.
winner: 49ers
AFC West (Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs, Raiders)
The good news for the Broncos is that they have three fantastic back-up QBs that any team would love to have behind their star. The bad news is that one of them has to start. Another team that I'd put in the surprise column is the Raiders. I don't think they'll finish in last place in their division this year. The Chargers may have gotten rid of LT, but when you get rid of great talent it's because you've got even better, and they do, in Sproles.
winner: Chargers
NFC Wild Card Teams: Redskins & Falcons
AFC Wild Card Teams: Jets & Ravens
And here's how the playoffs would play out:
NFC:
BYE: Saints & Cowboys
Wild Card Weekend: Falcons upset the 49ers and Minnesota sends Washington packing.
Divisional Round: The Vikings hand the Cowboys another loss and the Saints beat the Falcons
Conference Championship: Vikings over Saints
AFC:
BYE: Patriots & Jaguars
Wild Card Weekend: Cincinnati defeats Baltimore and the Chargers top the Jets
Divisional Round: The Chargers shock the Patriots and it's the Jaguars over the Bengals
Conference Championship: The Jaguars end the Chargers season
Super Bowl:
Jaguars vs Vikings
Favre wins his final game in the NFL, cries like a baby, and retires - for good this time.
Friday, July 30, 2010
Please Choose Wisely
I've been reading a lot of philosophy lately and having theological discussions. That leads to interesting trains of thought. I'd like to share one here.
I'd like to discuss the "problem of evil."
The first problem of evil is not the typical "problem of evil" most often referred to as "Epicurus' Problem of Evil." We'll get to that in a moment. The first problem of "evil" is that without a God there is no such thing as evil. Without a God life is a random accident. If that is the case then there is no moral code. Without a God we have no authority by which to measure anyone's actions. Without a God all actions are permissible as survival of the fittest. If I can beat you up and take your stuff, I'm more fit than you. Who is to call that evil? If evil exists, there must be a God.
Now, I think we can all agree that there is "evil" in the world. As we concluded above, if there is evil, there must be a God. Some say that this is contradictory believing that the existence of evil disproves God. This is where "Epicurus' Problem of Evil" comes in. It states that if there is a God, this God must be all loving and all powerful. If God is all loving then he must not be powerful enough to stop evil. If God is not all powerful, he is not God. If he is all powerful then he must not be loving enough to want to stop evil. If God is not loving then he is not God. Hence the existence of evil disproves God. But how can this be since we've already concluded that without God there can be no such thing as "evil." There must be a third option.
Let's assume for a moment that God is all powerful and all loving and stops all evil. What love is this? This is no love at all. If God acts in this manner then man is his robot, his marionette. This is not a loving God and, therefore, no God at all. What, then, are we left with? That solution can only be this: Evil exists, therefore, there is a God who is powerful enough to stop the evil and loving enough to want to stop it, but even more loving and powerful enough to restrain himself. A God that is truly all loving will let us make our own choices, some of which will lead to evil.
Many people that I know who do not serve God will say that the problem of evil is their primary reason. They believe an all powerful all loving God would put an end to evil. Because he does not, they chose not to serve him. The problem with this logic is this: the very restraint that God exercises that allows evil is the same restraint that allows them to decide they will not serve him. If God stopped all evil, that would include their prideful disdain for him. They would have no choice but to serve him. This sounds like a God they would not want to serve.
In conclusion: the so-called "problem of evil" proves that there is an all loving all powerful God who will allow you to chose not to serve him. Please choose wisely.
I'd like to discuss the "problem of evil."
The first problem of evil is not the typical "problem of evil" most often referred to as "Epicurus' Problem of Evil." We'll get to that in a moment. The first problem of "evil" is that without a God there is no such thing as evil. Without a God life is a random accident. If that is the case then there is no moral code. Without a God we have no authority by which to measure anyone's actions. Without a God all actions are permissible as survival of the fittest. If I can beat you up and take your stuff, I'm more fit than you. Who is to call that evil? If evil exists, there must be a God.
Now, I think we can all agree that there is "evil" in the world. As we concluded above, if there is evil, there must be a God. Some say that this is contradictory believing that the existence of evil disproves God. This is where "Epicurus' Problem of Evil" comes in. It states that if there is a God, this God must be all loving and all powerful. If God is all loving then he must not be powerful enough to stop evil. If God is not all powerful, he is not God. If he is all powerful then he must not be loving enough to want to stop evil. If God is not loving then he is not God. Hence the existence of evil disproves God. But how can this be since we've already concluded that without God there can be no such thing as "evil." There must be a third option.
Let's assume for a moment that God is all powerful and all loving and stops all evil. What love is this? This is no love at all. If God acts in this manner then man is his robot, his marionette. This is not a loving God and, therefore, no God at all. What, then, are we left with? That solution can only be this: Evil exists, therefore, there is a God who is powerful enough to stop the evil and loving enough to want to stop it, but even more loving and powerful enough to restrain himself. A God that is truly all loving will let us make our own choices, some of which will lead to evil.
Many people that I know who do not serve God will say that the problem of evil is their primary reason. They believe an all powerful all loving God would put an end to evil. Because he does not, they chose not to serve him. The problem with this logic is this: the very restraint that God exercises that allows evil is the same restraint that allows them to decide they will not serve him. If God stopped all evil, that would include their prideful disdain for him. They would have no choice but to serve him. This sounds like a God they would not want to serve.
In conclusion: the so-called "problem of evil" proves that there is an all loving all powerful God who will allow you to chose not to serve him. Please choose wisely.
Sunday, June 27, 2010
Review: Twilight
2008/PG-13/Romance
And so it would appear that my blog is transitioning into simply a movie review site. I believe I've found the reason for this: My political ire is so far off the charts that I find it difficult to compose a coherent sentence about it. My attention to sports has been hampered by a lack of time and cable. And I've been working on five different literary projects so when I have the time and the yearning to write, they are taking first priority. However, this evening I figured I'd take a few moments and earn a few new enemies with a review of the box office success Twilight.
Most of the reviewers who are passing on this movie are comparing it to the book Twilight by Stephenie Meyer. You won't find that prejudice here; I've not read the book. I'll be passing for entirely different reasons.
For those not in the know, Twilight chronicles the journey of 17 year old Bella as she moves from Phoenix Arizona to a small town in Washington state to live with her father. She catches the eye of the dashingly good-looking recluse Edward Cullen who just happens to be a vampire. Can the young couple overcome the obvious challenges in front of them? She's alive, he's undead. She's 17 he's about 175. She craves ice cream, he craves drawing every last drop of her blood from her body.
The plot of this movie doesn't make any sense. Why would Bella fall for Edward? Sure he's good looking but he wants to kill her. Is she so shallow that the mere fact that no one else could land him is enough for her? Is she so superficial that she can base her "unconditional, irrevocable love" on his attractiveness? Is she so shortsighted that she believes the excitement of being with a vampire is a sufficient foundation for love? There was one fantastic line in this movie. Edward says, "So the lion has fallen in love with the lamb." and Bella responds, "What a stupid lamb." Exactly.
The flip side of this question is also valid: Why would Edward fall for Bella? I understand that the scent of her blood is like a drug to him. I've never fallen for my extra large pepperoni pizza. Now, even though Edward is over 150 years old, it's understandable that, as a guy, he might confuse his desire for Bella for love. That doesn't alter the fact that combining his desire to devour her with his dedication not to harm her makes them spending 24/7 together absolutely illogical, if not cruel. And Bella's insistence that they not be apart is nothing more than her complete and utter selfishness. If she doesn't understand how hard it is for Edward than she's too self centered to listen to him. If she does understand then she's too selfish to care.
A plot as shaky as this puts a lot of pressure on the actors to present performances powerful enough for the audience to accept what we are being told. Based on the questions this movie has garnered, the actors weren't up to the task. Kristen Stewart was acceptable as Bella, but wasn't able to justify her love for Edward.
Robert Pattinson as Edward Cullen appeared to be channeling the annoying awkwardness of Hayden Christensen when he portrayed Anakin Skywalker. This was almost humorously confirmed when, just as Anakin declares to Padme that he killed all of them, "and not just the men, but the women and children too" and Padme didn't care, Edward confesses to Bella "I've killed people before." To which she responds "Doesn't matter."
Speaking of channeling it was pretty clear that James, played by Cam Gigandet, was doing everything but holding a seance in an attempt to embody Brad Pitt.
One performance stands out, however, as head and shoulders above the rest. Billy Burke shines as the awkward single-father-of-a-teenaged-daughter-whom-I-haven't-seen-in-years-small-town-chief-of-police. Even though the character is stereotypically written, Burke somehow brings depth and believability to this dime-a-dozen role.
The pacing of this movie exposed the inexperience of the director Catherine Hardwicke. The plot took far too long to develop. The movie was nearly half over and Bella was just realizing that Edward was a vampire. Almost three quarters of the way in the movie finally begins to get some traction as Edward and the Cullen clan attempt to protect Bella from James, the tracker. That lasts all of eight minutes and then the movie gets back in it's own way with it's slow paced romance. I'm not sure what this movie was marketed as, but it wasn't as a romance. When I finally succumbed to the fact that I was watching a romance I felt gypped. I had expected more.
One moment of the movie absolutely made my blood boil. Bella was on the phone withNina Myers, I mean her mother taking about Edward. Bella is trying to get off the phone and the last thing her mother feels the need to ask is, "Are you being safe?" Now, hopefully, this comment soared over the heads of the the 10-13 year old girls who are the major demographic pumping money into this franchise. However, the sentiment is still there: "Are you being safe?" EI: "Are you using protection?" Not "Are you behaving yourself?" "Are you abstaining?" or even "Are you making good choices?" What message is this sending to those viewers who aren't too young to understand? Bella hasn't been there for three months and her mother knows that she hasn't been talking about a boy since she got there. Yet it's the expectation of Bella's mother that Bella is having sex? Apparently, this is a given. Nothing her mother says will prevent it so she might as well at least make sure she's "being safe." It's this type of subtly that drive me crazy.
Ok, I do have some nice things to say about this movie. While this is not a "Christian" movie, it has two fairly blatant Christian themes: Edward struggles against his desire for human blood in the same way that we struggle against our desire to sin. Because we are human, our desire to sin is irrevocable just as Edward's desire for blood is because he's a vampire. Yet he actively fights against that urge and when he finds himself in a situation where the temptation is too great, he flees. How much more successful would we be at avoiding sin if we had the same flight instinct?
The first lines of the movie (which are repeated later on) are "I'd never given much thought to how I would die... But dying in the place of someone I love seems like a good way to go." This is exactly what Christ did for us. He died in the place of someone he loves, many someone's in fact. Someones that include me... and you.
My final thoughts on this movie are that even though the story was lacking and the acting was merely acceptable, the visual effects were above average and the majority of the themes in the film were positive.
2.5 out of 5 stars.
And so it would appear that my blog is transitioning into simply a movie review site. I believe I've found the reason for this: My political ire is so far off the charts that I find it difficult to compose a coherent sentence about it. My attention to sports has been hampered by a lack of time and cable. And I've been working on five different literary projects so when I have the time and the yearning to write, they are taking first priority. However, this evening I figured I'd take a few moments and earn a few new enemies with a review of the box office success Twilight.
Most of the reviewers who are passing on this movie are comparing it to the book Twilight by Stephenie Meyer. You won't find that prejudice here; I've not read the book. I'll be passing for entirely different reasons.
For those not in the know, Twilight chronicles the journey of 17 year old Bella as she moves from Phoenix Arizona to a small town in Washington state to live with her father. She catches the eye of the dashingly good-looking recluse Edward Cullen who just happens to be a vampire. Can the young couple overcome the obvious challenges in front of them? She's alive, he's undead. She's 17 he's about 175. She craves ice cream, he craves drawing every last drop of her blood from her body.
The plot of this movie doesn't make any sense. Why would Bella fall for Edward? Sure he's good looking but he wants to kill her. Is she so shallow that the mere fact that no one else could land him is enough for her? Is she so superficial that she can base her "unconditional, irrevocable love" on his attractiveness? Is she so shortsighted that she believes the excitement of being with a vampire is a sufficient foundation for love? There was one fantastic line in this movie. Edward says, "So the lion has fallen in love with the lamb." and Bella responds, "What a stupid lamb." Exactly.
The flip side of this question is also valid: Why would Edward fall for Bella? I understand that the scent of her blood is like a drug to him. I've never fallen for my extra large pepperoni pizza. Now, even though Edward is over 150 years old, it's understandable that, as a guy, he might confuse his desire for Bella for love. That doesn't alter the fact that combining his desire to devour her with his dedication not to harm her makes them spending 24/7 together absolutely illogical, if not cruel. And Bella's insistence that they not be apart is nothing more than her complete and utter selfishness. If she doesn't understand how hard it is for Edward than she's too self centered to listen to him. If she does understand then she's too selfish to care.
A plot as shaky as this puts a lot of pressure on the actors to present performances powerful enough for the audience to accept what we are being told. Based on the questions this movie has garnered, the actors weren't up to the task. Kristen Stewart was acceptable as Bella, but wasn't able to justify her love for Edward.
Robert Pattinson as Edward Cullen appeared to be channeling the annoying awkwardness of Hayden Christensen when he portrayed Anakin Skywalker. This was almost humorously confirmed when, just as Anakin declares to Padme that he killed all of them, "and not just the men, but the women and children too" and Padme didn't care, Edward confesses to Bella "I've killed people before." To which she responds "Doesn't matter."
Speaking of channeling it was pretty clear that James, played by Cam Gigandet, was doing everything but holding a seance in an attempt to embody Brad Pitt.
One performance stands out, however, as head and shoulders above the rest. Billy Burke shines as the awkward single-father-of-a-teenaged-daughter-whom-I-haven't-seen-in-years-small-town-chief-of-police. Even though the character is stereotypically written, Burke somehow brings depth and believability to this dime-a-dozen role.
The pacing of this movie exposed the inexperience of the director Catherine Hardwicke. The plot took far too long to develop. The movie was nearly half over and Bella was just realizing that Edward was a vampire. Almost three quarters of the way in the movie finally begins to get some traction as Edward and the Cullen clan attempt to protect Bella from James, the tracker. That lasts all of eight minutes and then the movie gets back in it's own way with it's slow paced romance. I'm not sure what this movie was marketed as, but it wasn't as a romance. When I finally succumbed to the fact that I was watching a romance I felt gypped. I had expected more.
One moment of the movie absolutely made my blood boil. Bella was on the phone with
Ok, I do have some nice things to say about this movie. While this is not a "Christian" movie, it has two fairly blatant Christian themes: Edward struggles against his desire for human blood in the same way that we struggle against our desire to sin. Because we are human, our desire to sin is irrevocable just as Edward's desire for blood is because he's a vampire. Yet he actively fights against that urge and when he finds himself in a situation where the temptation is too great, he flees. How much more successful would we be at avoiding sin if we had the same flight instinct?
The first lines of the movie (which are repeated later on) are "I'd never given much thought to how I would die... But dying in the place of someone I love seems like a good way to go." This is exactly what Christ did for us. He died in the place of someone he loves, many someone's in fact. Someones that include me... and you.
My final thoughts on this movie are that even though the story was lacking and the acting was merely acceptable, the visual effects were above average and the majority of the themes in the film were positive.
2.5 out of 5 stars.
Friday, June 04, 2010
Review: Avatar
2009/PG-13/Drama
Avatar is the latest release from the Oscar winning director of Titanic James Cameron. This movie is nothing short of spectacular. Oh, wait, I'm sorry, I typed that wrong. This movie is nothing more than mediocre. There we go.
Avatar is the age-old (read: "tired") story of evil soul-less capitalists exploiting nature-loving spiritual natives for their ubervaluable natural resource. As usual, the vile villainous humans enlist the assistance of the armed-to-the-teeth-and-out-for-blood mercenaries to subdue the uncooperative underdeveloped aboriginals. Who are the heroes that will lift the helpless victims against this seemingly insurmountable foe? Why it's the scientists, of course! Can the resourceful scientists organize the disadvantaged natives? Will they successfully defend their homeland against the powerful greedy humans preventing them from acquiring that which they are after? Did this movie come out of Hollywood?
Honestly, I have no idea what all of the hype was about with this movie. The special effects look cartoonish, the acting is barely adequate, and, perhaps worst of all, the story is stereotypically average! Seriously, here is a brief list of movies with the exact same plot line just off the top of my head: Jurassic Park, Fern Gully: The Last Rain Forest, Fern Gully 2: The Magic Rose, Ernest Goes to Camp, WALL-E, Atantis: The Lost Empire, and Goonies to name a few! A ragtag band of underdogs usually lead by some awkward scientist trying to protect their environmentally friendly home from certain destruction because of some great money-rich scheme dreamed up by an evil corporation. I mean, come on! Avatar is simply a retelling of this boring, over-used, trendy plot line.
There was one aspect of this movie that was both surprising and yet not all at the same time. Most Hollywood movies treat religion as though it were the opiate for the masses. Surprisingly, Avatar did not. In face, it was the religion of the Na'vi that allowed Jake to be one of them forever. Not only that, but their deity's name was "Eywa," (pronounced Ay-Wah) an interesting jumble of the Hebrew God Yaweh (pronounced Yah-Way). The not surprising aspect of this is that Eywa is the interconnectedness of all nature on their planet. On the one hand: their faith is real, on the other: nature is their god.
My final complaint about this picture is that, despite James Cameron's decades in Hollywood, this film still reeked of it's "written and directed by" status. One key thing that a director who did not write a movie can do is leave some scenes on the cutting room floor. If you direct what you wrote, cutting a scene or a subplot is like lopping off the limb of one of your children. It's very painful and incredibly difficult to do. However, if the limb is diseased with gangrene it's something that must be done! Mr. Cameron was unable to chop off even the little finger of his baby forcing us to endure a movie that was unnecessarily long. The DVD I watched was from my local library. I wasn't too surprised to see that of all of the special features, "deleted scenes" wasn't among them.
When I first saw the preview for this movie, I went so far as to purchase two boxes of a specially marked cereal so that I could get a free movie ticket. I was going to use this ticket to see this movie. I lost the necessary portions of the cereal box and did not get my free movie. Having seen Avatar on DVD, I didn't miss anything.
There isn't much to praise about this movie. I will say that I was surprised at the death and destruction that Mr. Cameron allowed before executing his predictably contrived ending. And for that, I'll allow him
0.5 out of 5 stars.
Avatar is the latest release from the Oscar winning director of Titanic James Cameron. This movie is nothing short of spectacular. Oh, wait, I'm sorry, I typed that wrong. This movie is nothing more than mediocre. There we go.
Avatar is the age-old (read: "tired") story of evil soul-less capitalists exploiting nature-loving spiritual natives for their ubervaluable natural resource. As usual, the vile villainous humans enlist the assistance of the armed-to-the-teeth-and-out-for-blood mercenaries to subdue the uncooperative underdeveloped aboriginals. Who are the heroes that will lift the helpless victims against this seemingly insurmountable foe? Why it's the scientists, of course! Can the resourceful scientists organize the disadvantaged natives? Will they successfully defend their homeland against the powerful greedy humans preventing them from acquiring that which they are after? Did this movie come out of Hollywood?
Honestly, I have no idea what all of the hype was about with this movie. The special effects look cartoonish, the acting is barely adequate, and, perhaps worst of all, the story is stereotypically average! Seriously, here is a brief list of movies with the exact same plot line just off the top of my head: Jurassic Park, Fern Gully: The Last Rain Forest, Fern Gully 2: The Magic Rose, Ernest Goes to Camp, WALL-E, Atantis: The Lost Empire, and Goonies to name a few! A ragtag band of underdogs usually lead by some awkward scientist trying to protect their environmentally friendly home from certain destruction because of some great money-rich scheme dreamed up by an evil corporation. I mean, come on! Avatar is simply a retelling of this boring, over-used, trendy plot line.
There was one aspect of this movie that was both surprising and yet not all at the same time. Most Hollywood movies treat religion as though it were the opiate for the masses. Surprisingly, Avatar did not. In face, it was the religion of the Na'vi that allowed Jake to be one of them forever. Not only that, but their deity's name was "Eywa," (pronounced Ay-Wah) an interesting jumble of the Hebrew God Yaweh (pronounced Yah-Way). The not surprising aspect of this is that Eywa is the interconnectedness of all nature on their planet. On the one hand: their faith is real, on the other: nature is their god.
My final complaint about this picture is that, despite James Cameron's decades in Hollywood, this film still reeked of it's "written and directed by" status. One key thing that a director who did not write a movie can do is leave some scenes on the cutting room floor. If you direct what you wrote, cutting a scene or a subplot is like lopping off the limb of one of your children. It's very painful and incredibly difficult to do. However, if the limb is diseased with gangrene it's something that must be done! Mr. Cameron was unable to chop off even the little finger of his baby forcing us to endure a movie that was unnecessarily long. The DVD I watched was from my local library. I wasn't too surprised to see that of all of the special features, "deleted scenes" wasn't among them.
When I first saw the preview for this movie, I went so far as to purchase two boxes of a specially marked cereal so that I could get a free movie ticket. I was going to use this ticket to see this movie. I lost the necessary portions of the cereal box and did not get my free movie. Having seen Avatar on DVD, I didn't miss anything.
There isn't much to praise about this movie. I will say that I was surprised at the death and destruction that Mr. Cameron allowed before executing his predictably contrived ending. And for that, I'll allow him
0.5 out of 5 stars.
Tuesday, May 04, 2010
Review: The Invention of Lying
2009/PG-13/Comedy
The Invention of Lying is set in an imaginary world where humans are incapable of lying. While this world would, in actuality, be a utopia; there is an added twist in this film to make it seem that the truth is destructive: apparently, not only can humans only speak the truth, but they also are incapable of remaining silent. For example: A girl opens the door to meet her blind date and says, "Hi! Oh, I don't find you the least bit attractive and I don't have very high hopes for this evening."
Entrenched in this world is Mark Bellison. Mark is a "loser". While being very smart, he is short, overweight, and recently unemployed. Mark is going to alter the course of human history by inventing the world's first lie. He finds this talent to be very useful, not only for paying his rent, but also for solving the world's problems. His new found power is exaggerated by the fact that everyone believes him due to the cultural disposition to the truth. No one has ever lied before, why should anyone think he is speaking anything but what is true?
Mark's mother is dying and she is afraid. To ease her fears Mark invents a story about an afterlife. A magnificent story that involves the best place you could ever think of, mansions, loved ones, peace, and joy. Of course, everyone believes him and now the world is beating a path to his door to hear more about this wonderful place that somehow only he knows about. Mark spends the entire night concocting the specifics about the afterlife. He creates "The man in the sky," a bad place for bad people, what is and what isn't a bad act, and various other very religious concepts.
This movie does something that is nearly impossible to do: it proves the exact opposite view of the message it is trying to convey.
It was painfully obvious that the people who believed him were ignorant, naive, and foolish. God and heaven, according to this film, is a lie. A fanciful story made up to ease the fear of old people, give others someone to blame for the bad things in their lives, and provide a reason for people to do good.
However
The "religion" that Mark invents is riddled with inconsistencies. It is elementary in it's concepts, and sophomoric in its arrangement. This intelligent person's inability to create a feasible religion simply goes to show that the complexity of Christianity makes it all the more unlikely that it is not of human origin.
I will give kudos to this film in one aspect: The ability to lie makes the truth more powerful. It is unfortunate that this film felt the need to put this point on a pedestal, rather than trust the intelligence of the audience. The point, however, was clear and poignant, none the less.
I would like to contrast this film and it's viewpoint that lying is not only necessary, but beneficial in all aspects of life with the view that Johnathan Swift presents to us in his masterpiece "Gulliver's Travels." In the fourth book Gulliver visits the land of the "Houyhnhnms;" A race of intelligent horses that are slaves to reason and are so honest they do not even have a word for "lie." They inquire of Gulliver "whether it were the custom in his country to say the thing which was not." Here in the Houyhnhnms we find a (debatable) utopia where laws are created to sustain life rather than control it due to man's tendency toward evil or even destroy it due to the corruption in the system. The Houyhnhnms are contrasted with the Yahoos, a savage race of people devoid of honor or virtue who are slaves to their passions. The Invention of Lying would have us believe that the Yahoos are the race to which we should aspire and not the Houyhnhnms.
I find it somewhat ironic that a faith that admonishes it's followers to "speak the truth in love" so that "the truth might set you free" is lampooned in this comical farce as nothing more than a calculated lie. Sorry, but I don't believe you.
1.5 out of 5 stars.
The Invention of Lying is set in an imaginary world where humans are incapable of lying. While this world would, in actuality, be a utopia; there is an added twist in this film to make it seem that the truth is destructive: apparently, not only can humans only speak the truth, but they also are incapable of remaining silent. For example: A girl opens the door to meet her blind date and says, "Hi! Oh, I don't find you the least bit attractive and I don't have very high hopes for this evening."
Entrenched in this world is Mark Bellison. Mark is a "loser". While being very smart, he is short, overweight, and recently unemployed. Mark is going to alter the course of human history by inventing the world's first lie. He finds this talent to be very useful, not only for paying his rent, but also for solving the world's problems. His new found power is exaggerated by the fact that everyone believes him due to the cultural disposition to the truth. No one has ever lied before, why should anyone think he is speaking anything but what is true?
Mark's mother is dying and she is afraid. To ease her fears Mark invents a story about an afterlife. A magnificent story that involves the best place you could ever think of, mansions, loved ones, peace, and joy. Of course, everyone believes him and now the world is beating a path to his door to hear more about this wonderful place that somehow only he knows about. Mark spends the entire night concocting the specifics about the afterlife. He creates "The man in the sky," a bad place for bad people, what is and what isn't a bad act, and various other very religious concepts.
This movie does something that is nearly impossible to do: it proves the exact opposite view of the message it is trying to convey.
It was painfully obvious that the people who believed him were ignorant, naive, and foolish. God and heaven, according to this film, is a lie. A fanciful story made up to ease the fear of old people, give others someone to blame for the bad things in their lives, and provide a reason for people to do good.
The "religion" that Mark invents is riddled with inconsistencies. It is elementary in it's concepts, and sophomoric in its arrangement. This intelligent person's inability to create a feasible religion simply goes to show that the complexity of Christianity makes it all the more unlikely that it is not of human origin.
I will give kudos to this film in one aspect: The ability to lie makes the truth more powerful. It is unfortunate that this film felt the need to put this point on a pedestal, rather than trust the intelligence of the audience. The point, however, was clear and poignant, none the less.
I would like to contrast this film and it's viewpoint that lying is not only necessary, but beneficial in all aspects of life with the view that Johnathan Swift presents to us in his masterpiece "Gulliver's Travels." In the fourth book Gulliver visits the land of the "Houyhnhnms;" A race of intelligent horses that are slaves to reason and are so honest they do not even have a word for "lie." They inquire of Gulliver "whether it were the custom in his country to say the thing which was not." Here in the Houyhnhnms we find a (debatable) utopia where laws are created to sustain life rather than control it due to man's tendency toward evil or even destroy it due to the corruption in the system. The Houyhnhnms are contrasted with the Yahoos, a savage race of people devoid of honor or virtue who are slaves to their passions. The Invention of Lying would have us believe that the Yahoos are the race to which we should aspire and not the Houyhnhnms.
I find it somewhat ironic that a faith that admonishes it's followers to "speak the truth in love" so that "the truth might set you free" is lampooned in this comical farce as nothing more than a calculated lie. Sorry, but I don't believe you.
1.5 out of 5 stars.
Sunday, May 02, 2010
An Important Question
It probably goes without saying that I've had a bit of a hiatus from posting but two occurrences have spurred me back to the blogosphere.
The first, I'm sad to report, is the end of my wife's blog. She has decided to take a permanent hiatus. I'm hoping that in a few months, maybe a year, she will return. However, for right now, this is the correct decision for her. Please pay a final visit to her blog and recall your favorites of her additions to the blogging world.
The second is the oil slick that has reached the shore of Louisiana. The oil was caused by an explosion on an off shore drilling station on April 20th. Ten days later the oil has now reached the shore of Louisiana. Later that day President Obama finally saw fit to visit the state.
I have a question, or, to be more precises, several questions: Why didn't President Obama have a comprehensive plan to protect the coast of America? Why did he wait until the oil hit the shore to visit the state? Does he hate the wildlife so much that he waited this long to help them? Shouldn't he have evacuated the impacted area long ago?
While on one hand these questions are completely legitimate, they are also somewhat tongue-in-cheek. The real question is: if the media was so self-righteously indignant, so quick to point every finger at Bush, so ready and willing to label him a racist, and decry him a failure for his "lack of action" regarding Katrina and it's aftermath, where are they now? Where are the demands for the immediate action of the white house? Where is the outrage for Obama's obvious lack of planning to safe guard the shore? Last I checked an oil slick moves a whole lot slower than a hurricane. I know we can't stop, or even weaken a storm such as Katrina, but BP was taking action to attempt to lessen the spill, why weren't we? And why haven't I heard anyone else making the same demands of this President as were made on the last?
The real cherry on this sundae is an article I read attempting to pin even this crisis on Bush. I'm not looking to place blame. (This article from March 30th should shed some light on the aforementioned accusation, however). I'll allow my readers to determine how much action or preparation should have come from the current administration. The purpose of this post to point out, yet again, that the media is clearly camped on one side of the aisle. How long will we allow them to hold their President to a lower standard than they do the President of the alternate party?
The first, I'm sad to report, is the end of my wife's blog. She has decided to take a permanent hiatus. I'm hoping that in a few months, maybe a year, she will return. However, for right now, this is the correct decision for her. Please pay a final visit to her blog and recall your favorites of her additions to the blogging world.
The second is the oil slick that has reached the shore of Louisiana. The oil was caused by an explosion on an off shore drilling station on April 20th. Ten days later the oil has now reached the shore of Louisiana. Later that day President Obama finally saw fit to visit the state.
I have a question, or, to be more precises, several questions: Why didn't President Obama have a comprehensive plan to protect the coast of America? Why did he wait until the oil hit the shore to visit the state? Does he hate the wildlife so much that he waited this long to help them? Shouldn't he have evacuated the impacted area long ago?
While on one hand these questions are completely legitimate, they are also somewhat tongue-in-cheek. The real question is: if the media was so self-righteously indignant, so quick to point every finger at Bush, so ready and willing to label him a racist, and decry him a failure for his "lack of action" regarding Katrina and it's aftermath, where are they now? Where are the demands for the immediate action of the white house? Where is the outrage for Obama's obvious lack of planning to safe guard the shore? Last I checked an oil slick moves a whole lot slower than a hurricane. I know we can't stop, or even weaken a storm such as Katrina, but BP was taking action to attempt to lessen the spill, why weren't we? And why haven't I heard anyone else making the same demands of this President as were made on the last?
The real cherry on this sundae is an article I read attempting to pin even this crisis on Bush. I'm not looking to place blame. (This article from March 30th should shed some light on the aforementioned accusation, however). I'll allow my readers to determine how much action or preparation should have come from the current administration. The purpose of this post to point out, yet again, that the media is clearly camped on one side of the aisle. How long will we allow them to hold their President to a lower standard than they do the President of the alternate party?
Thursday, March 25, 2010
My Boy
There are various stages in the life of a young man: Infant, Baby, Toddler, Little Boy, Boy, Young Man, Tween, Adolescent, Teen, Young Adult, etc. Each stage has it's own rite of passage, if you will. If there was any doubt, Today, Full House solidified his "Boy" status.
Every now and then (ok, basically all the time), Full House and I wrestle. He jumps on me, I tickle him, he climbs on me, etc. Today, as he was running to jump on me, I rolled over. As I did so my elbow came in contact with his bottom lip.
Did he cry? Nope. Did he scream? Nope. Did he bleed? Yup.
There you have it, my little Full House bled without shedding a single tear.
Now I have a Boy.
Every now and then (ok, basically all the time), Full House and I wrestle. He jumps on me, I tickle him, he climbs on me, etc. Today, as he was running to jump on me, I rolled over. As I did so my elbow came in contact with his bottom lip.
Did he cry? Nope. Did he scream? Nope. Did he bleed? Yup.
There you have it, my little Full House bled without shedding a single tear.
Now I have a Boy.
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
The Bill (Post I)
Sunday, by the narrowest of margins, the House passed a Healthcare reform bill. First, let me say how phenomenally pleased I am that this version of the bill does not include a "public option." The Government will not be entering the market as a healthcare provider.
Now, allow me to blast this reform bill. According to the Obama administration this bill will provide coverage for 30 million Americans who do not currently have it and will cause health care premiums to decrease for those that do have it.
(In rereading my complete and utter dismantling of this bill, I'm seeing that the post is very long. Due to the length of this post, I've split it into several updates. For your convenience I'll list here a table of contents, if you will. Read the portions that interest you.)
Post I (This post)
~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~
Problem #1
An assumption made by the crafters of this bill
This bill assumes that the 30 million Americans without healthcare all want it. I didn't have healthcare after I graduated from college until about a month before I got married. I didn't need it. I didn't want it. This bill would have punished me for making that financial decision. There is a clause that allows young adults to stay on their parents healthcare until they are 26 instead of 22 as it is now. So either I get punished (with a fine) or my parents get punished by having to continue to pay for a family plan rather than an insured plus one. People should have the freedom not to carry healthcare, just as we have the freedom not to carry life insurance, home insurance, or mortgage insurance. One more thing, allowing "children" to remain on their parents plan is great if you want to continue perpetuating the growing problem of "twixters!"
Problem #2
Consequences if individuals choose not to pay for health insurance
Any American without healthcare by 2014 could be fined. For the first year the fines would start at about $95 (and then in fine print "or 1% of your annual income, whichever is higher") Who makes $9,500 a year?! Then next year the fines could increase to a starting amount of $695. Individuals and families who make less than a certain amount would be exempt from these fines. Oh yeah, by the way, the people exempt from the fines would be eligible for Medicaid. A state-based, state and federally funded health care program that they wouldn't have to pay for! So the people who are exempt get free healthcare anyway!
Please keep reading on the next post:
Now, allow me to blast this reform bill. According to the Obama administration this bill will provide coverage for 30 million Americans who do not currently have it and will cause health care premiums to decrease for those that do have it.
(In rereading my complete and utter dismantling of this bill, I'm seeing that the post is very long. Due to the length of this post, I've split it into several updates. For your convenience I'll list here a table of contents, if you will. Read the portions that interest you.)
Post I (This post)
- Problem 1: An assumption made by the crafters of this bill.
Problem 2: Consequences if individuals choose not to pay for health insurance.
- Problem 3: The ramifications of fining companies that don't provide coverage for their employees.
Problem 4: The bogus claim that this bill will somehow decrease health care premiums
- Problem 5: The ridiculous way this bill plans to pay for itself.
Problem 6: The type of coverage that companies are now required to offer.
- Problem 7: The Constitutionality of this bill
Problem 8: When everything is scheduled to take effect.
Final thoughts
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An assumption made by the crafters of this bill
This bill assumes that the 30 million Americans without healthcare all want it. I didn't have healthcare after I graduated from college until about a month before I got married. I didn't need it. I didn't want it. This bill would have punished me for making that financial decision. There is a clause that allows young adults to stay on their parents healthcare until they are 26 instead of 22 as it is now. So either I get punished (with a fine) or my parents get punished by having to continue to pay for a family plan rather than an insured plus one. People should have the freedom not to carry healthcare, just as we have the freedom not to carry life insurance, home insurance, or mortgage insurance. One more thing, allowing "children" to remain on their parents plan is great if you want to continue perpetuating the growing problem of "twixters!"
Consequences if individuals choose not to pay for health insurance
Any American without healthcare by 2014 could be fined. For the first year the fines would start at about $95 (and then in fine print "or 1% of your annual income, whichever is higher") Who makes $9,500 a year?! Then next year the fines could increase to a starting amount of $695. Individuals and families who make less than a certain amount would be exempt from these fines. Oh yeah, by the way, the people exempt from the fines would be eligible for Medicaid. A state-based, state and federally funded health care program that they wouldn't have to pay for! So the people who are exempt get free healthcare anyway!
Please keep reading on the next post:
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