It's hard to believe that this is the 14th year that I've been previewing each of the four possible Super Bowls. In fact, this very post was the only thing keeping this blog alive for many years.
If you perused my 2019-2020 playoff preview you'll see just how poorly I did getting 75% of the wild card games wrong. It was such a bad showing that I found myself pulling for the Eagles so I could go a complete 0 for 4! I would have also predicted the Ravens/Titans game wrong.
I just want to take a moment to highlight this astonishing fact: This is the first time since 2011 that the Patriots are not in the AFC Championship game! Eight consecutive years of appearing in the AFC Championship game is an amazing feat. They've faced 6 different teams over those 8 years (Chiefs, Jaguars, Steelers, Broncos [twice], Colts, & Ravens [twice]).
If you're interested in how I've done historically, here is a link to my previous 13 predictions:
All Four Super Bowl Preview Annual Results. I've gone 20 for 37 so far for a score of 54%. Let's see if we can get that up to 58% with this year's predictions!
As you've come to expect, I will preview the games from what I believe to be least compelling to most compelling. I'll highlight which game I'm predicting along with which team I think would win each of the four games.
Titans vs 49ers
Too few people even know who Ryan Tannehill is to put either game with the Titans very high on the compelling list. However, the Titans are currently the second best team remaining in the playoffs. That's right, the 6th seed out of the AFC is the second best team. Consider the following: Since switching QBs from Mariota to Tannehill the Titans have gone 9 - 3. They've gone 4-2 against playoff teams defeating the likes of the Ravens, Chiefs, Patriots, and Texans (Losing to the Texans and Saints) and winning most of these games on the road. Unfortunately for the Titans, the 49ers are the *best* team still in the running to hoist the silver football. If you didn't like last year's defensive, low-scoring Super Bowl, you won't like this one either. With two run-heavy, defensively-minded teams this will be a low-scoring game that will go by quickly. Additionally, this is the game that we will watch - and when we watch it, we will see Garoppolo and the 'Niners end the Cinderella story of Tannehill and the Titans in a closely fought game. I expect there will be a similar heartbreaking ending for the Titans as when they lost to the Rams: A late drive to try to win the game that comes just one play short.
Winner: 49ers
Loser: Everyone who didn't want to see "The Patriots" in the Super Bowl (Garoppolo, Vrabel)
Titans vs Packers
There is a storyline here: The trophy handed out to the winner of the Super Bowl is named for the legendary coach of the Green Bay Packers: Vince Lombardi. The Tennessee Titans have never won the big game (not even in their previous iteration as the Houston Oilers). So here we have the team that won the first 2 championships (but not since 2011) vs a team that has never won. The Titans are on the way up while, on the other hand, The Packers are on the way down. They haven't looked like the Pack of the past. The Packers have struggled to win games where their opponent scored more than 20 points. Combine that stat with the fact that, of the four remaining teams, the Packers had the easiest schedule, don't expect them to overcome the fierce running game of Henry and the Titans. It'll be close at the end but the Titans pull out the win.
Winner: Titans
Loser: Quarterbacks under the age of 30
Chiefs vs Packers
Old guard vs the next big thing. This game would pit two similar offenses together. Powerful passing teams with supportive runners that both have less-than-stellar defenses. This would be a high scoring game as Rogers & Co march down the field with diligent and intentional drives that pick the Chiefs defense apart. The Chiefs would respond with their explosive offensive plays that pick up huge chunks of yardage as they out-match the Packer's D with their speed and quickness. This game will come down to mistakes vs big plays. Both of which will be made more by the Chiefs. The final one will be a desperation play that looks like it may win the game for Mahomes and his hommies (How could I resist) but will result in a game ending interceptions sealing the victory for Green Bay.
Winner: Packers
Loser: State Farm. For which of their QB spokespersons will they cheer?
Chiefs vs 49ers
I believe this is the game that the general public think they want to see. The highest ranked team in the NFC vs the highest ranked team remaining in the AFC. Garoppolo vs Mahomes. The two rising young quarterbacks who look like they maybe be the future Brady vs Manning. This looks like it has the makings of a great Super Bowl. Here's why they're wrong: While Kansas City has perhaps the most potent offense in the NFL that can score on short drives in the blink of an eye, their rushing defense is atrocious. The 49ers are a power rushing team with a quick-pass, west-coast offense that taxes pass defenses as though they were run plays. This match-up would have some exciting moments as the Chiefs attempt to climb their way back into the game but the 49ers will be in control for the majority of the game beginning late in the 1st Quarter. This snooze-fest concludes with Garoppolo hoisting his first (of several) Lombardi Trophy
Winner: 49ers
Loser: "The Old Guard" of Brady, Rogers, Manning, Rivers, & Brees
Saturday, January 18, 2020
Saturday, January 04, 2020
2019 - 2020 NFL Playoff Preview
It's not every year that I have the opportunity to breakdown what (probably won't but) may happen in the playoffs. However, as this is my favorite time of year, when I do have the time I enjoy taking it!
I didn't post one of these last year so you don't have to sit through the torture of me recapping how poorly I did.
We will start with the AFC (in order of when the games will air)
Bills @ Texans:
Two 10 - 6 teams face off in Houston. These teams can be a bit of a quandary as Houston defeated such juggernauts as the Chiefs and the Patriots but lost to the 7-9 Colts and the 5-11 Panthers. While Buffalo was unable to over come the Patriots either time they faced off this year they did beat another playoff team in the Titans and also overcame two bubble teams: Dallas and Pittsburgh. Their common opponents are just as confusing with each losing to teams the other defeated. With two mobile and youthful quarterbacks this game will come down to the defense. Buffalo is second overall in defense. Houston is 22. The Bills will buck their way to the second round.
Titans @ Patriots
While this game appears to be a one that should cause Patriots fans to be concerned (Vrabel, a former Belichick protégé, and a team with a strong running game) there are several things in the Patriots favor: the Patriots have forced nearly an entire season's worth of turnovers MORE than the Titans, the Patriots have the number 1 defense in the league, and the Patriots 8th rank passing offense by far surpasses the Titan's 24th ranked passing D. Expect TB12 and "The Squirrel" Julian Edelman to pad their playoff passing stats in this walk-away win for the Pats.
Bills @ Ravens
This is the worst possible AFC match-up for the Baltimore Ravens. The Bills are one of the final two teams that have a chance of stopping the potent Ravens offense. With two similar very mobile QBs in Jackson and Allen along with two very difficult to bring down RBs with Singletary and Ingram these two teams match-up amazingly well. Combine that with the fact that the Bills gave up just under 10 more yards per game that the Ravens and you've got a recipe for a very exciting, very physical ground & pound game. What will be the deciding factor of this game will be the ability of the QBs to pass effectively. Oddly enough, the edge goes to Allen. However, the Ravens D will make a big play late in the game to seal their victory.
Patriots @ Chiefs
A rematch of last year's thrilling AFC Championship game where the Patriots shocked the rookie QB Mahomes with a 37-31 finish in overtime. It's also a rematch of the Chief's victory (referee assisted victory) over the Patriots in the regular season. So who walks away from this contest with the W? This is a classic case of powerful offense vs stingy defense. The saying holds true: Defense wins championships. Expect Brady & Co to move on.
Patriots @ Ravens
While people may think they want to see the Chiefs face the Ravens that game would not be as compelling as this one. The Ravens would walk away with that game. This one will be much closer. All season Lamar and the Ravens have been utilizing the same game plan because it works. But that means that football grandmaster Belichick has a season's worth of film to devise a way to stop it. The question is: Can the Patriot's offense move the ball and score against the Raven's third ranked D? Just like the Patriots most recent Super Bowl win this will be a low scoring, one score game that will come down to the closing seconds to determine the winner. And the team that will be representing the AFC in the Super Bowl will be the Baltimore Ravens.
NFC
Vikings @ Saints
For many the Vikings are a surprise playoff team. The "experts" had already declared the Bears the winners of the Super Bowl. With Trubisky and Mack AND Rogers and Adams to overcome, how could Cousins & Co possibly make the post season? Well, with a Chicago implosion and a bunch of other NFC teams seemingly trying NOT to make the playoffs here they are. And they draw Drew Brees and the Saints. Enjoy your playoff game, Vikings, maybe you'll get another next year.
Seahawks @ Eagles
Much like the Vikings, no one thought that ANYONE from the NFC East would be in the playoffs. But somebody had to win. Keeping Dallas out the Eagles managed to get to host this playoff game. Compare that with the Seahawks who were a game or two away from winning the NFC West and maybe having a bye week. The Eagles won't have an opportunity to run another "Philly Special" in the big game as they are one and done.
Seahawks @ 49ers
These two teams swapped victories the two times they faced each other in the regular season with the 49ers winning the week 17. While they match up well against each other (experiencing a 1 point difference with the combined total of their two face-offs) when it comes to common opponents the 49ers are head and shoulders ahead of the Seahawks. While it won't be an easy win the 49ers will finish with the W.
Saints @ Packers
Two of the greatest QBs in the NFL face off in this game. Additionally, two very evenly matched teams: averaging their offensive and defensive rankings they both fall between 12th & 13th place with the Saints being a more powerful offense with the Packers having a more balanced team. This game is the most difficult for me to make a selection but I expect Brees and his passing game to win as Roger's last minute trademarked "hail mary" pass is deflected to the ground (with a questionable no-call on DPI).
Saints @ 49ers
The rematch of week 14 where the 49ers finally proved they were the real thing, having lost to all of the other good teams they'd faced who were above .500 at the time. Also, the third year in a row that New Orleans' fans will have their hearts wrenched from their chests (narrowly losing to the Rams last year, and the "Miracle in Minnesota" the year before). While the Saints will be in this game until the 4th they will be unable to stop the running game of the 49ers and will, once again, have to say "maybe next year."
Super Bowl
Ravens vs 49ers
The rematch of Super Bowl XLVII (47) [aka the Har-Bowl (as the Harbaugh brothers faced off); aka the Blackout Bowl (when one half of the SuperDome's lights went out)] when the Ravens edged out the 49ers by a score of 34 - 31 (with "begging for a defensive holding call" final play). While ESPN and the NFL are ready to crown Lamar Jackson as the next "Greatest QB ever" he's gonna have to wait because Garoppolo will win his first Super Bowl ring. These two teams will provide us with an old-school, grind-it-out, dirt-in-the-cleats, head-down-north-south, lots-of-hyphens, defensive-battle game! The Ravens and 49ers are first & second in rushing, first & second in total TDs scored, and third & fifth regarding points against (all respectively). So with two teams so evenly matched what will decide the winner? The passing game. The 49ers are the number 1 passing defense in the league. The Ravens? Number 6. But the 49ers offensive passing rank is 14 places higher than the Ravens. Garoppolo will out pass Lamar when it matters most and hoist his first Lombardi Trophy as the 49ers win their first Super Bowl since 1995.
There you have it: my playoff predictions (which at the time I'm submitting this edit are already 0-1). Stay tuned in a few weeks for my favorite (and sometimes only) post of the year: All Four Super Bowl Previews (XIV!)
I didn't post one of these last year so you don't have to sit through the torture of me recapping how poorly I did.
We will start with the AFC (in order of when the games will air)
Bills @ Texans:
Two 10 - 6 teams face off in Houston. These teams can be a bit of a quandary as Houston defeated such juggernauts as the Chiefs and the Patriots but lost to the 7-9 Colts and the 5-11 Panthers. While Buffalo was unable to over come the Patriots either time they faced off this year they did beat another playoff team in the Titans and also overcame two bubble teams: Dallas and Pittsburgh. Their common opponents are just as confusing with each losing to teams the other defeated. With two mobile and youthful quarterbacks this game will come down to the defense. Buffalo is second overall in defense. Houston is 22. The Bills will buck their way to the second round.
Titans @ Patriots
While this game appears to be a one that should cause Patriots fans to be concerned (Vrabel, a former Belichick protégé, and a team with a strong running game) there are several things in the Patriots favor: the Patriots have forced nearly an entire season's worth of turnovers MORE than the Titans, the Patriots have the number 1 defense in the league, and the Patriots 8th rank passing offense by far surpasses the Titan's 24th ranked passing D. Expect TB12 and "The Squirrel" Julian Edelman to pad their playoff passing stats in this walk-away win for the Pats.
Bills @ Ravens
This is the worst possible AFC match-up for the Baltimore Ravens. The Bills are one of the final two teams that have a chance of stopping the potent Ravens offense. With two similar very mobile QBs in Jackson and Allen along with two very difficult to bring down RBs with Singletary and Ingram these two teams match-up amazingly well. Combine that with the fact that the Bills gave up just under 10 more yards per game that the Ravens and you've got a recipe for a very exciting, very physical ground & pound game. What will be the deciding factor of this game will be the ability of the QBs to pass effectively. Oddly enough, the edge goes to Allen. However, the Ravens D will make a big play late in the game to seal their victory.
Patriots @ Chiefs
A rematch of last year's thrilling AFC Championship game where the Patriots shocked the rookie QB Mahomes with a 37-31 finish in overtime. It's also a rematch of the Chief's victory (referee assisted victory) over the Patriots in the regular season. So who walks away from this contest with the W? This is a classic case of powerful offense vs stingy defense. The saying holds true: Defense wins championships. Expect Brady & Co to move on.
Patriots @ Ravens
While people may think they want to see the Chiefs face the Ravens that game would not be as compelling as this one. The Ravens would walk away with that game. This one will be much closer. All season Lamar and the Ravens have been utilizing the same game plan because it works. But that means that football grandmaster Belichick has a season's worth of film to devise a way to stop it. The question is: Can the Patriot's offense move the ball and score against the Raven's third ranked D? Just like the Patriots most recent Super Bowl win this will be a low scoring, one score game that will come down to the closing seconds to determine the winner. And the team that will be representing the AFC in the Super Bowl will be the Baltimore Ravens.
NFC
Vikings @ Saints
For many the Vikings are a surprise playoff team. The "experts" had already declared the Bears the winners of the Super Bowl. With Trubisky and Mack AND Rogers and Adams to overcome, how could Cousins & Co possibly make the post season? Well, with a Chicago implosion and a bunch of other NFC teams seemingly trying NOT to make the playoffs here they are. And they draw Drew Brees and the Saints. Enjoy your playoff game, Vikings, maybe you'll get another next year.
Seahawks @ Eagles
Much like the Vikings, no one thought that ANYONE from the NFC East would be in the playoffs. But somebody had to win. Keeping Dallas out the Eagles managed to get to host this playoff game. Compare that with the Seahawks who were a game or two away from winning the NFC West and maybe having a bye week. The Eagles won't have an opportunity to run another "Philly Special" in the big game as they are one and done.
Seahawks @ 49ers
These two teams swapped victories the two times they faced each other in the regular season with the 49ers winning the week 17. While they match up well against each other (experiencing a 1 point difference with the combined total of their two face-offs) when it comes to common opponents the 49ers are head and shoulders ahead of the Seahawks. While it won't be an easy win the 49ers will finish with the W.
Saints @ Packers
Two of the greatest QBs in the NFL face off in this game. Additionally, two very evenly matched teams: averaging their offensive and defensive rankings they both fall between 12th & 13th place with the Saints being a more powerful offense with the Packers having a more balanced team. This game is the most difficult for me to make a selection but I expect Brees and his passing game to win as Roger's last minute trademarked "hail mary" pass is deflected to the ground (with a questionable no-call on DPI).
Saints @ 49ers
The rematch of week 14 where the 49ers finally proved they were the real thing, having lost to all of the other good teams they'd faced who were above .500 at the time. Also, the third year in a row that New Orleans' fans will have their hearts wrenched from their chests (narrowly losing to the Rams last year, and the "Miracle in Minnesota" the year before). While the Saints will be in this game until the 4th they will be unable to stop the running game of the 49ers and will, once again, have to say "maybe next year."
Super Bowl
Ravens vs 49ers
The rematch of Super Bowl XLVII (47) [aka the Har-Bowl (as the Harbaugh brothers faced off); aka the Blackout Bowl (when one half of the SuperDome's lights went out)] when the Ravens edged out the 49ers by a score of 34 - 31 (with "begging for a defensive holding call" final play). While ESPN and the NFL are ready to crown Lamar Jackson as the next "Greatest QB ever" he's gonna have to wait because Garoppolo will win his first Super Bowl ring. These two teams will provide us with an old-school, grind-it-out, dirt-in-the-cleats, head-down-north-south, lots-of-hyphens, defensive-battle game! The Ravens and 49ers are first & second in rushing, first & second in total TDs scored, and third & fifth regarding points against (all respectively). So with two teams so evenly matched what will decide the winner? The passing game. The 49ers are the number 1 passing defense in the league. The Ravens? Number 6. But the 49ers offensive passing rank is 14 places higher than the Ravens. Garoppolo will out pass Lamar when it matters most and hoist his first Lombardi Trophy as the 49ers win their first Super Bowl since 1995.
There you have it: my playoff predictions (which at the time I'm submitting this edit are already 0-1). Stay tuned in a few weeks for my favorite (and sometimes only) post of the year: All Four Super Bowl Previews (XIV!)
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