Sunday, January 24, 2016

All Four Super Bowl Previews X

It is hard to believe this is the tenth episode of "All Four Super Bowl Previews!" I suppose it's somehow fitting that my 10th is the NFL's 50th. (If you are interested in how I did with the previous nine predictions you can find the links to the previous editions at the end of the post.)

Perennially I update my prediction record. In reviewing my figures I located an error that I will correct from here forward. Scoring is as follows: 1 Point for correctly predicting the AFC winner, 1 point for the NFC winner, and 1 point for correctly predicting the winner of the contest of the actual Super Bowl teams. A potential of 3 points per year with one exception: For some inexplicable reason I intentionally made no prediction regarding which teams would go to the Super Bowl in 2010. However, I did (incorrectly) predict a winner of the actual game that occurred. That year shall count for 1 available point. So, up until my predictions for 2015, I was 12 for 22 (54.5%). Last year I correctly predicted that the Patriots would face the Seahawks in the Big Dance, however, I guess I thought the Seahawks would run the ball at the goal line and not toss Malcolm Butler the game winning interception. (An identical prediction to the one I made the year before when the Seahawks trounced the Broncos.) However, going 2 for 3 last year increases my record to 56%! Ok, on to the predictions for this year:

Interesting fact regarding this year's QBs: Three out of four of them are over 35! Newton is the baby of the bunch at 26.

Alright, here are this year's games from least compelling to most:

Patriots vs Cardinals
I feel the need to briefly define how I'm using the term "Compelling" in this ranking structure. I don't mean the quality of game that will be on display for the fans to watch. I mean the story - the selling factor that CBS can milk to try to entice the casual viewer to the couch for the game. That being said this game is the one that no one wants to see. Here's why: Nobody (outside of New England [and their fans]) wants to see Brady in another Super Bowl. His legacy is set, his HOF ticket is stamped, it's time to share with the other children. Everyone (outside of Arizona and the fans of the other NFC South Teams) wants to see Cam Newton on the Big Stage (and, no, I don't mean singing with Coldplay.) So if there's no Newton and there is Tom Terrific then few people will be happy. This is unfortunate as I believe this will be the best game to watch. The Cardinals and Patriots both have the best offense for their respective leagues and adequate defenses to make it difficult for the opponents offense to simply move the ball all over them. This is the game I expect to see and I believe that Belichick and Co will find a way to befuddle Palmer into making enough mistakes that the Patriots will be the first to repeat as Super Bowl champions since... oh yeah, The Patriots.
Winner: Patriots
Losers: Jim Nantz and Phil Simms as they have to say nice things about the Patriots (they will later gargle with antiseptic mouthwash).

Broncos vs Cardinals
It may be surprising to find this game listed second considering how much the average fan doesn't want to see Brady in the Super Bowl, so his absence might appear to be drawing factor. However, I believe that Newton's absence would cause more people to not watch than Brady's presence. In regards to the game, the Broncos have a decent defense but not enough to win a championship. Their offense isn't what it used to be either. This game won't feel like it's over because the Nantz and Simms will continually fawn over Manning and herald him as the football Messiah (never once mentioning the HGH scandal that is currently surrounding him) but he will be unable to overcome the Cardinals. Peyton will fall to 1-3 for his Super Bowl appearances.
Winner: Cardinals
Loser: Manning's HGH provider as demand plummets.

Patriots vs Panthers
While CBS will get some play out of the "rematch of Super Bowl XXXVIII" angle (Cam Newton was a freshman in high school when that game was played), the major story-line here is that the Panthers are seeking to mirror the Patriots feat of finishing a season 18-1. The only difference is, when the Patriots finished 18-1 they were 18-0 headed into the final game of the year. The Panthers had an opportunity match the Patriots undefeated 16 game regular season but fell to the Falcons week 15. Now, had they managed to overcome their divisional rival CBS would be selling their souls for this match-up. Imagine the hype: "The Panthers are on a mission to be the first undefeated team in the 16 game era. The only obstacle still in their way? The last team to attempt the seemingly impossible feat. The Patriots hope to add another team with an 18-1 record to the annals of NFL History." Instead, it's the Panthers hoping for a better 18-1 record, where they hoist the Lombardi trophy at the end and the Patriots hoping to send "SuperCam" Newton home with 17-2 record for the year. If this is the game that we see, my emotions say that the Panthers will win, but my head says the Patriots. I don't expect the Patriots to spot the Panthers 31 points like the Seahawks did last week and if the Panthers D couldn't stop the Seahawks from coming within a TD of victory, they won't be able to stop Tom, Edelman, Gronk, and Amendola.
Winner: Patriots
Loser: Roger Goodell

Broncos vs Panthers
This is the game that everyone without a dog in the fight wants to see. They want Peyton to have his swan song and go out on top like the last great Broncos QB, John Elway, did. Not only that, but they want it to be against a rising star QB Cam Newton. A passing of the torch, if you will. They picture Newton congratulating Peyton at the 50 just after Manning has announced that now that he's won the Super Bowl he's going to fly the Millennium Falcon to Disney World (Because they can't cross reference that enough!) Both QBs smiling from ear to ear as Manning says, "You'll get yours next year kid" and, in oblivious to the irony, hands Cam the game ball. Too bad that isn't what is going to happen. This game will be over by the middle of the 3rd. The Panthers won't fall for Manning's new patented "Look at me guys, I'm giving myself up!" play. Manning will be benched after he throws his 3rd INT (2nd Pick-six [4th turnover including an earlier strip sack]). Brock comes in the game but it's too little, too late as the Panthers role over the Broncos by 3 scores. The Panthers will finish the season 18-1, but this time with a championship.
Winner: Panthers
Losers: Everyone tired of hearing about the 1972 Dolphins

Those are my thoughts, what are yours? Here are the links to my previous predictions, analysis, winners, and losers:

2007, Colts over Bears;
Game Predicted: Saints over Colts.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Colts;

2008, Giants over Patriots;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Giants vs the Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots;

2009, Steelers over Cardinals;
Game Predicted: Steelers over Eagles.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Steelers;

2010, Saints over Colts;
Game Predicted: Purposeful lack of prediction.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Colts;

2011, Packers over Steelers;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Packers and Steelers
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Steelers;

2012, Giants over Patriots;
Game Predicted: Giants over Ravens.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots

2013, Ravens over 49ers;
Game Predicted: 49ers over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: 49ers

2014, Seahawks over Broncos;
Game Predicted: Seahawks over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Seahawks

2015, Patriots over Seahawks;
Game Predicted: Seahawks over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Seahawks

Friday, January 08, 2016

2015-2016 NFL Playoff Preview

It's the most wonderful time of the year! Nope, not Christmas time, NFL Playoff time! Hard to believe it's been another year since I posted but I simply can't refuse the siren call of predicting the NFL Post season. Here is how I did with last year's playoff predictions.

AFC:
Ravens v Steelers: Prediction Steelers, actual Ravens
Colts v Bengals: Prediction Bengals, actual Colts
Bengals v Patriots: Prediction Patriots, actual Patriots
Colts v Broncos: Prediction Broncos, actual Colts
Colts v Patriots: Prediction Patriots, actual Patriots

NFC:
Panthers v Cardinals: Prediction Panthers, actual Panthers
Cowboys v Lions: Prediction Cowboys, actual Cowboys
Seahawks v Panthers: Prediction Seahawks, actual Seahawks
Cowboys v Packers: Prediction Cowboys, actual Packers
Cowboys v Seahawks: Prediction Cowboys, actual Seahawks

Super Bowl
Cowboys v Patriots: Prediction Patriots, actual Patriots

It didn't look like my final prediction was going to hold true with the circus catch and Beast-Mode expectation until Butlers INT. I I went only 6 for 11 for 54% which is unfortunate seeing as half of those predictions were the Patriots! On to this year: Here is how I believe the second best tournament of the year will work itself out (NCAA basketball is #1):

I felt like last year's Wild Card Weekend was up-in-the-air. This year I feel like it's nearly a gimmie. That being said, I'll probably be lucky if I go .500 so don't rush to Vegas with my predictions. I'll review them in the order in which they will be played:

AFC Saturday 1st game Chiefs at Texans
If I were to power rank all 12 of the playoff teams the Texans would be at the bottom. I've heard many people talking about the Chiefs as the sleeper team of the post season. Momentum is a fairly important aspect of the NFL and the Chiefs are carrying a 10 game winning streak. Now, the flip side of that stat is that their wins were against pedestrian teams. Only 2 of which finished the year over .500 and three of their opponents winning fewer than a third of their games. This game will be a close one with Houston's excellent Defense holding KC's very good offense and KC's adequate defense stopping Houston's below average offense. When the clock stops, it's the Chiefs that will be moving on.
Winner: Chiefs

AFC Saturday 2nd game Steelers at Bengals
As a Patriots fan, the Steelers are the team that concern me the most. It wouldn't surprise me if Belichick lost to the Jets to give them control of their own destiny and keep Pittsburgh out of the post season. Then, when he saw that the Bills were whooping up on the Jets he chose to lose to the Dolphins so that if the Patriots had to meet the Steelers it wouldn't be until the AFC Championship game The Bengals, on the other hand would be ranked just above the Texans. With a back up QB and only a few challenges this year, less than half that they rose to, the Bengals are benefiting from early success. That success will not carry them into the next round of the post season. This game will be over by halftime. The Bengals have gone 24 years since their last playoff win. That tally will increase to 25.
Winner: Steelers

NFC Sunday 1st game Seahawks at Vikings
The biggest headline of this game will be the weather. Not because it will be the coldest game of all time, not even close. But with temperatures expected to be around 8 degrees Fahrenheit the NFL could put an end to "Deflategate" (or "Framegate" as it is more appropriately called) once and for all. Simply test those footballs at half time and make the results public. Of course, this will never happen. So, on to the game: Of all the games for wild card weekend, this is the most difficult to predict. The Vikings have had a late season push to finally wrestle the division from the claws of the Packers. Seattle has also had some success against key teams this season, most notably the Cardinals and the Vikings. If we were to go by the meeting in the regular season one would expect the Seahawks to run away with this one as they won by 29. However, the way the Vikings played against the Packers when it mattered gave a glimpse of what the team can do when their back is against the wall. The Seahawks have overcome the curse of the losing Super Bowl team not making the playoffs, but only just barely. It may be interesting to note that the teams who which the Seahawks have lost have the second highest winning record (behind only the Bengals)and the teams they beat have the 3rd lowest winning record (behind the Texans and Bengals). That means they lost to the good teams and beat the bad teams. That might make this pick easier if the Vikings hadn't done much of the same. Edging out the Seahawks by 1.76% in winning percentage of the teams they've beaten. So who comes out on top? The boys from Washington
Winner: Seahawks

NFC Sunday 2nd game: Packers at Redskins
The Packers of late have not been the Packers we've come to know and love (Or otherwise, depending on which team you favor). While the Redskins have emerged from the worst division of the NFC (When a team is 4-10 week 15 and still not mathematically eliminated from the post season [Dallas], there's a problem). The Redskins have the distinction of having lowest winning percentage of the teams against whom they won. Interestingly, they also lost teams with the second lowest winning percentage (The Panthers had the lowest winning percentage of teams they lost to [which was only one (Falcons)] at 50%). This means the Redskins had the easiest schedule out of all of the playoff teams and they still limped in. It feels odd going with all of the road teams but I can't find a good reason to pick the Redskins.
Winner: Packers

Divisional Round:
AFC Saturday 1st game Chiefs at Patriots
While I would much rather have seen the Bengals in this slot, we'll take the Chiefs. Hopefully, Edelman, Amendola, Gronk, and Brady will all be at 100%. If they are, then I have little concern that the Patriots will move on to the next round. If they are not all available to play, I still believe that the Patriots are matched up will against the Chiefs. People may point to the Patriots having gone 2-4 in their final 6 games but remember a few things: The Broncos game could have easily gone either way, the Eagles loss was a major special teams debacle and the Patriots still had a chance to win, and the losses to the Jets and Dolphins may have been intentional. The Patriots usually save a few special plays for the post season (See: Ravens controversy last year that we all forgot about because of "Framegate). The Chief's hopes for a championship end in Foxboro.
Winner: Patriots

NFC Saturday 2nd game Packers at Cardinals
The Packers aren't as fortunate this round having to travel to Arizona to face the Cardinals. The Cardinals have already disposed of the Packers once this season and it was the current team who doesn't look like the Green Bay of old (Or even week 5). Palmer will beat Rogers and give the Cards the win.
Winner: Cardinals

NFC Sunday 1st game Seahawks at Panthers
The Panthers looked like they were going to match the Patriots feat of 2007 of going the entire regular season without a loss. They still have a chance to match New England's 18-1 record if they can bring home the Lombardi Trophy. First they have to get past the Seahawks. The likelihood that the Panthers were going to go undefeated decreased greatly when their star running back Jonathan Stewart went down with an injury. Two games later they lost to the Falcons. The Panthers faced teams with the worst overall winning percentage but part of that is that they defeated 93.75% of those teams. However, those same teams didn't do a lot of winning apart from when they faced the Panthers either. It would be a great disappointment if the Panthers went out the first round. Rumor has it that Stewart will be back. The Panthers don't disappoint.
Winner: Panthers

AFC Sunday 2nd game Steelers at Broncos
This is a game I (wrongly) predicted last year. But this year I'm even more sure it will happen. The Steelers are one of the healthiest teams in the AFC and that goes a long way in the post season. The Broncos have to choose between an injured geriatric with a bum neck and an unproven QB who they pulled from the final game of the year when it really mattered. I believe they are going to go with Manning and he will be the Manning of late (which is the Manning we've come to expect in the playoffs). He will throw no fewer than 2 interceptions. He will get a hit that will give the Broncos and excuse to pull him in favor of Brock but it will be too late. Big Ben will march the Steelers to a Mile High victory ending Manning's final chance at equaling his younger (and far less talented) brother's Super Bowl victories.
Winner: Steelers

Championship Round:
AFC
Steelers at Patriots
This is the game I dreaded. Can the Patriots #DefendtheWall against the Steelers in Foxboro. The Patriots have defeated Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship game twice in the past, both times in Pittsburgh, and both times the Patriots went on to win the Super Bowl. Can the Steelers return the favor? Can Big Ben waltz into Foxoboro in late January, defeat the Patriots and then beat the NFC's Super Bowl Representative? I don't think so (that, and every time I've picked against the Patriots I've regretted it).
Winner: Patriots

NFC
Cardinals at Panthers
As informed as I try to be I haven't had much opportunity to see the Cardinals this year. Stats show that they are evenly balanced but can they stop the double pronged run and shoot offense of Stewart, Newton, and the Panthers? While Cam is certainly the shoe-in for NFL MVP this year, I'm not 100% sure that he can beat the Cardinals. If they did, I think they'd win the Super Bowl. I've even typed the Super Bowl match up of a Panthers v Patriots rematch but it didn't seem right. Despite my better judgment and what all the experts are saying, I'm going with Palmer and the Cardinals.
Winner: Cardinals

Super Bowl
Cardinals vs Patriots
This actually will be a better game than Panthers v Patriots. Cardinals v Patriots will have more fan-favorite passing and a advertising preferred high-scoring game. Like every other Patriots victory, this game will be decided by less than a Touchdown in the closing minutes of the game. Unlike other Patriots games, this game will have two teams pushing, if not breaking, the 40 point barrier. If you're a gambler - take the over (Not really because, as I've proved in the past, what do I know?!)
Winner: Patriots

There you have it. If you are a betting person, I recommend betting on what I predicted will NOT happen. If one were to do some reconnaissance on my previous NFL predictions during the preseason, I'm pretty sure we'd see that the Dallas v New England Super Bowl is one that is most commonly predicted. However, this year I believe it's a very high likelihood. Enjoy the games. What a great time of year!