2011-2012 NFL Preview

Well, the strike is over (Yes, it was a strike.) which means it's that time again! Time for another edition of JMO's NFL preview! (Is it unfortunate that few things get me to post now a-days? If you think so, skip the post and comment. Let me know what you'd like to read about on JMO) For those of you still reading: Get out those pencils and jot down what you'll read here because it's sure to be completely incorrect by week 5!

As you've become accustomed, I'll be going division by division predicting the winners of each. We'll begin with the NFC seeing as they won the Super Bowl last year.

NFC North (Bears, Lions, Packers, Vikings)
The Lions have been making great strides over the past few off-seasons. They are a very trendy pick to make the post season this year. However, I don't think they'll be able to overcome the powerful Packers and I don't think they'll wind up as one of the two best non-division-winning teams in the NFC. It will be close, but I expect them to be watching the game come January. And while Chicago and Minnesota (who acquired a younger QB in 34 year old McNabb) have made some improvements, Green Bay is going to run away with this division.

winner: Packers

AFC North (Bengals, Browns, Ravens, Steelers)
There are some questions in this division. But they mostly are regarding if the Browns and Bengals will win more games combined than the Steelers. Big Ben managed to stay out of hand-cuffs and courtrooms in this off-season so they won't have those distractions. Considering how they did last year, maybe that's a strike against them. The Ravens do stand a chance at the playoffs. But Flaco will likely only be able to get them there as a wild card.

winner: Steelers

NFC East (Cowboys, Eagles, Giants, Redskins)
Here is a division that's gotten lots of attention in the off-season. I'd be remiss if I started by discussing any team other than the Eagles. They've certainly become the Miami Heat/New York Yankees of the NFL. The question is can this team of divas mesh into a cohesive unit? If not, will the on-again/off-again Giants or the they're-so-full-of-talent-but-can't-win-when-it-counts Cowboys take 1st in this division. The problem is, like the Miami Heat, the Eagles have now set them up with expectations: The season will be a failure if they don't win the Championship. The Heat couldn't live up to it. Will the Eagles learn from their mistakes?

winner: Eagles

AFC East (Bills, Dolphins, Jets, Patriots)
Wow! This is a division that had an off-season chess match. The Jets and the Patriots both improved their rosters. If any team other than New England signed both Albert Haynesworth and Chad Johnson Ocho-Cinqo I'd say they were headed for disaster. However, somehow Belichick and company manage to succeed with characters such as these (see Corey Dillon and even Randy Moss for a season and a half. And remember, they got Randy for a 4th round draft pick and traded him for a 3rd round pick!) Yes, you can infer from these comments that the Bills and Dolphins will be irrelevant this year. When all is said and done, I'm not drinking the Sanchez kool-aid.

winner: Patriots

NFC South (Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers, Saints)
This may become one of the hottestly contested divisions in the NFL. With Matt Ryan at the helm the Falcons are poised to take the division back from the red hot Saints. You can't even count out the Buccaneers this year. It will be interesting to see how Cam Newton does for the Panthers, but they are in a rebuilding year. The Saints have not fared as well this year in free agency as some other teams. I think they'll make it to the playoffs -- but not as the division winner.

winner: Falcons

AFC South (Colts, Jaguars, Texans, Titans)
This division is shrouded in uncertainty more than any other time in recent memory! Peyton had neck surgery over the summer and was not able to work-out with his regular trainer due to the strike. Everyone expects him to start week 1, but can he be effective? And if he's not, who takes first in this division? The Texans, who everyone loves in the preseason but who collapses in the regular season? The Titans, who some think are in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes? The Jaguars, who are built to beat the Colts but no one else? Even if they lose the first 4 games, they will still make the playoffs -- but can the Schaub/Johnson tandem make it so that the Colts slip into the post season as a wild card? Nope.

winner: Colts

NFC West (Cardinals, 49ers, Rams, Seahawks)
Can the Seahawks ride the wave they created when they became the first team to enter the playoffs with a losing record, and then advanced past the first round? Kolb to the Cardinals, Rice to the Seahawks, McDaniels with the Rams, a complete defensive overhaul for the 49ers. Which of these teams will become first round fodder in the playoffs? The team with the most weapons is Arizona.

winner: Cardinals

AFC West (Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs, Raiders)
It is still a quarterback driven league and this division is rife with quarterback controversy. Can Campbell be the hero for Oakland? Cassel lost his major supporter (McDaniels) in Kansas City, the Broncos have three quarterbacks: the coach wants one, the locker room the second, and the fans the third! And then there is Rivers. And while his supporting cast may have changed, he is still an excellent quarterback who just seems to have some difficulty delivering when it counts. But this is, after all, a quarterback driven league.

winner: Chargers

NFC Wild Card Teams: Cowboys & Saints

AFC Wild Card Teams: Jets & Ravens

And here's how the playoffs would play out:

NFC:
BYE: Packers & Eagles
Wild Card Weekend: Saints defeat the Cardinals in a thriller and the Cowboys fall to the Falcons.
Divisional Round: Eagles beat the Falcons in the battle of the birds and the Packers send the Saints packing
Conference Championship: Eagles over Packers

AFC:
BYE: Patriots & Steelers
Wild Card Weekend: The Ravens beat the Chargers and the Jets shock the Colts
Divisional Round: Patriots end the Ravens' season and the Jets beat the Steelers
Conference Championship: Brady gets his revenge on Sanchez and sends the Jets home

Super Bowl:
Patriots vs Eagles

And in the rematch of Super Bowl XXXIX the result is the same. The Eagles fall to the Patriots and suffer the same fate as their NBA counterpart -- a stacked deck that folds on the river.

Those are my predictions. What are yours?

A New Horizon

After much consideration and some assistance, I have entered the world of YouTube!

Shortly, Fillion Films will have it's first short film on YouTube. In the meantime, you'll have to settle for the trailer. Please visit this site:

Paint by Numbers Trailer

Don't forget to check back soon for the outtakes of this movie!

("Like" the trailer and tell your friends!)

Now that you've seen the trailer, Check out the short film:

Paint by Numbers

Write your review in the comments section of this post!

"King Dirk"

There are only two "King James" that I'm aware of: The king of England from 1603-1625 and the English translation of the Bible that he commissioned.

Dirk Nowitzki just did in Dallas what Lebron has never been able to accomplish in Cleveland: Win it all with "one great player." Not only was Lebron unable to win in Cleveland, but he also couldn't win in Miami with one of the most impressive "supporting casts" ever assembled. Perhaps his move to Miami has shown that he isn't as great as everyone previously supposed.

Even if Miami had won both of these games at home, the story wouldn't be about "King James," rather it would have been "King Dwyane." If anyone has proven himself to be a leader and a talented player regardless of the game situation, it's Dwyane Wade.

Congratulations MVP Dirk and the Dallas Mavericks on your hard-fought, well-deserved NBA Championship!

Things That Make Me Angry

I have three things that I feel the need to share that really get my goat, rub me the wrong way, ruffle my feathers, and other animal related colloquialisms that mean "increase one's ire."

First: People who misuse percentages. This may sound a little wacky but hear me out. I was watching a news story regarding the rising cost of gas. The anchor displayed four categories that together make up the price of fuel. They were "Distribution, Taxes, Refining, and Crude." She was comparing 2010 gas data to the current trends using percentages. Her claim was that we shouldn't feel so terrible about the increase in crude prices, because the amount we were paying for distribution, taxes, and refining had decreased based on the percentages. Well DUH! With the price of crude sky-rocketing the way it is and everything else remaining the same, of course the percentages are going to decrease!

Here's the table they were displaying:
.................2010....2011
Refining.......36%......20%
Taxes..........14%.......7%
Distribution...15%.......8%
Crude..........35%......65%

"Taxes and Distribution are down nearly 50%" the TV personality tried to assert, "and Refining is down by 16 points!" Come on!

Now, work with me here: (For the sake of argument, let's use round numbers) let's say that gas in 2010 was $2 a gallon and it's now $4 a gallon. Now, we'll plug actual numbers into this table instead of percentages:

..................2010......2011
Refining.......$0.72......$0.80
Taxes..........$0.28......$0.28
Distribution...$0.30......$0.30
Crude..........$0.70......$2.60

Anyone really think that average Joe watching this news cast is going to break out their trusty TI81 and calculate this fallacy? No, Ms Newscaster, the other three portions of the cost of gas are not decreasing. Crude is so expensive it's name is literal and figurative. It's time to stop misusing percentages (and open up the US reserves, but that's for another post).

Second: Hypocrisy in unions. The NFL Player's Union, to be specific. The NFL players are trying to claim that they are pawns in the greedy hands of the overbearing owners. And in a show of solidarity they've asked the incoming rookies not to attend the draft celebration in New York on Thursday. Anyone paying attention to this so-called lockout knows that the player's union is going to "concede" to a rookie salary cap in order to get some of their own demands met. (I say "concede" because there's no reason for the Player's Union to fight the cap. Why should an 8 year veteran be making less than someone who's never played a down in the NFL?) Why, then, would this trodden-on group of players turn and do the same thing to the incoming rookies?! Hey, players: They aren't part of your union, so they aren't part of your strike (I mean "lockout"). They are going to be your pawns at the bargaining table so please allow them to be knights at the podium on Thursday.

Finally: I've decided that if I can't afford the things I really want, like my iPhone, Internet, cable, (basically the overall lifestyle to which I've become accustomed) I'm just going to go to my neighbors and demand money from them. After all, that's what the government does, right? Cut spending? What's that? No, I'm just going to require everyone to give me cash. And if you were giving me money before, now you have to give me more. I know everyone has less right now. The economy is hard, but how else can I continued to live the way I want to live? Now, if the "powers-that-be" decided that they were going to lead by example, tighten the belt a little bit, then I might be encouraged to do so as well. However, until that happens: If you've taken the time to read this post, please send me $5.00. Thank you.

30 Hour Famine

Thank you for reading this post.

During the weekend of February 25th & 26th I will be purposefully fasting for (at least) 30 hours. Why do such a thing? Well, when Jesus was talking about our "acts of righteousness" in Matthew 6 he says, "When you fast..." signifying that, as one of His followers, this is an activity in which I should be participating. Additionally, disciplining your body when it's telling you it needs food can assist you in disciplining yourself when you are tempted by sin. Finally, I'll be fasting on these specific dates in an effort to raise money to help feed starving children around the world.

That's right, I'm going hungry for food.

That's where you come in. I would like to give you the opportunity to sponsor my fast. Sponsoring me at $1 per hour that I fast would feed a child for 1 month. If $30 is not an option for you, any amount that you can give is greatly and sincerely appreciated. You do not need to feel bound by the "amount per hour" model, even if you can donate $2, that is money that will help those in need. (Donations of over $30 are also welcome).

The organization through which I participate in the famine is called World Vision. Please feel free to visit their website and if you have any questions regarding the famine, please contact me or you can visit the 30 Hour Famine Website.

You can donate online on my personal donation site here. Any amount that you give will also be counted in the total amount for the Youth Group that I co-lead. We are expecting between 30-40 high school students to willingly go without food for more than a day to raise money for starving people worldwide.

If you are unable to give financially, please pray for me, my fellow leaders, and the youth that will be participating. This can be a live changing event. It truly helps to put into perspective the abundance that we are blessed with in America.

If you are feeling adventurous, feel free to support us by fasting with us. We will have our pre-fast meal at noon on Friday the 25th and we will Break Fast on Saturday the 26th at 6 PM.

Thank you for reading this post. Thank you for visiting my donation website. And thank you for your support.

All Four Super Bowl Previews V

It's hard to believe I've been doing this post 5 years in a row! Even though the Patriots loss was painful, and they really should be included in this post, I still enjoy breaking down all four possible Super Bowls, discussing who would win each one, which I'd like to see, which I think we'll see, and which one the league and the networks are pulling for.

If you'd like to see how I've done in the past, you can read my previous versions here (I'll list them with the year the Super Bowl happened along with the actual teams that faced off): 2007, Colts over Bears; 2008, Giants over Patriots; 2009, Steelers over Cardinals; and 2010, Saints over Colts.

Once again, you can expect me to set in stone the destiny of two teams by predicting that they will do well this week.

And now, all four Super Bowl break-downs, from least compelling to most:

Bears vs Jets
Even though they were in the Big Game in 2007, the Bears seem to be a surprise candidate this year. They've been fairly terrible since they fell to Peyton and the Colts. They've been picked against every round and the final game would be no different. If Ryan and Sanchez can defeat Manning, Brady, and Reothlisberger consecutively to get to the Super Bowl they'll have not trouble with Lovie and Culter. Winner: Jets(Loser: Next year's NFL fans having to listen to a victorious Rex Ryan)

Bears vs Steelers
Even though no one (except people who live in Illinois) really expect the Bears to put up much of a fight against either AFC team, they did get to the Super Bowl and could cause the Steelers some fits. If this is the game we see, the Steelers would likely be double digit favorites. This game does have the advantage of being a battle of two historic teams and CBS could leverage that. While this would give Big Ben his third ring (matching Brady) it would be his third win against teams that he was expected to beat but struggled (as he likely will if we see this game) just like he did against the Seahawks, Cardinals, and now the Bears. Obviously, he'll take a Super Bowl ring however he can get it, but Ben would rather face Green Bay. Winner: Steelers (Loser: Franchises with 5 Super Bowl wins as the Steeler would now be up by 2)

Packers vs Steelers
This game has a better storyline: Experienced Super Bowl QB vs an up-and-comer that everyone expects to elevate to the ranks of the likes of Brees, Brady, and Manning in the very near future. This is the game CBS will be bribing the refs to see. Two teams with nation-wide fan bases, two well loved QBs, and two teams that nearly everyone respects. The Steelers would have over-come the stifling D of the Jets but can they stop the high-octane Offense of the Packers? If Ben can win here, it would solidify him as worthy of his Super Bowl victories. This would be a very hard fought high scoring game and while I didn't pick this one as the most compelling game of the four, this is the game I think we'll see. Winner: Packers (Loser: Both Defensive Coordinators)

Packers vs Jets
This is the game I want to see. While I'd love to see Rex "Disrespect" Ryan lose two years in a row in the AFC Championship Game, the chances that the Steelers could beat the Packers and win their seventh ring is too great for my tastes. That and, honestly, Rex has devised a defense to stop Manning, Brady, and Reothlisberger; I'd love to see what he comes up with to try to stop Rogers and the Packers. The league would be more than happy to have this match-up as it represents what many are saying is the next generation of great Quarterbacks. Finally, I can't resist hoping to see both #6 seeds making it to the Super Bowl. To me, this would be the best possible game. Winner: Packers (Loser: Brett Favre)

There you have it. Is there a game you'd rather see? Did I pick the wrong winners? If you've got somethin' to say: be heard!

2010 - 2011 Playoff Preview

It's that time again: Time for me to review how my preseason predictions panned out. In this post I'll also be cursing at least four teams by predicting that they will do well in the playoffs!

You can find my preseason preview here. Here's how I did:

AFC
East
Prediction: Patriots
Actual: Patriots
Look, I got one!

West
Prediction: Chargers
Actual: Chiefs
At least I got the first two letters right!
(Other notable prediction: Raiders didn't finish last)

North
Prediction: Bengals (stop laughing)
Actual: Steelers
My biggest error was underestimating Pittsburgh without Big Ben. No MVP for him this year, huh?

South
Prediction: Jaguars
Actual: Colts
Up until the last two weeks of the season, this looked like it was going to happen! Especially when the Jaguars beat the Colts in the first half of the year.

Wild Card
Prediction: Jets & Ravens
Actual: Jets & Ravens
Wow. I don't know what to say! That's pretty impressive!

NFC
East
Prediction: Cowboys
Actual: Eagles
I couldn't have been more wrong in this one! I predicted Eagles last and Giants second to last. Ended the exact opposite.

West
Prediction: 49ers
Actual: Seahawks
In my defense, the Seahawks are the first time in NFL history to win their division with a losing record. And the 49ers weren't all that far out!

North
Prediction: Vikings
Actual: Bears
Can anyone make any sense out of this division?

South
Prediction: Saints
Actual: Falcons
I did say that the Falcons would surprise a lot of people. They even surprised me and took the division! I did have them in the playoffs as a wild card team.

Wild Card
Prediction: Redskins & Falcons
Actual: Packers & Saints

I predicted 5 of the 12 Playoff Teams. Not too shabby. However, my predicted Super Bowl isn't even possible.

Playoff Predictions
If my playoff predictions are anything like my season predictions this year then be sure to bet on the opposite of whomever I choose! I only had 5 weeks were I was able to predict more than 11 winners! And I had weeks where I was less than .500! It was sad!

Anyway, here we go:

AFC
Wild Card Round:
Jets at Colts
Tough tough game to call! The Colt's running game seems to be draped on the back of UConn's Donald Brown which leads one to believe that Peyton will be chucking the rock all over the field. But the strength of the Jet's defense is their cornerbacks, and they have two this year. Peyton can't just throw to his tight end all day, it's not Dallas Clark, he's out with injuries. Couple that with the fact that Manning has already thrown 17 INTs this year and while Revis and Cromartie only have 3 INTs between them, it's because QB's don't like to throw in their direction! Though I know the Colts are dangerous in the post season, I just don't think they can get past the Jets.
Winner: Jets

Ravens at Chiefs
I'm not really sure how the Chiefs snuck their way out of the AFC West. But I do know it's past their curfew and they will have to go back home. Cassel won't be able to compete with the Ravens solid Defense.
Winner: Ravens

Divisional Round:
Ravens at Steelers
The AFC Divisional round is a pair of Divisional Match-ups! The Ravens and Steelers split their games this year, each winning by three on the other teams turf. This will be a great game. Smash-mouth, up the middle, in your face football. In the end (hang on, let me flip a coin) the Ravens will end the Steelers bid to be the first team to win six rings.
Winner: Ravens

Jets at Patriots
One of the things the Patriots have going for them in this game is that they lost to the Jets earlier in the year. "Nobody beats the same team three times in one year" is a favorite mantra of many analysts. The other thing the Patriots have going for them is that they are playing the Jets. Without some favorable bounces, poor decisions by opposing teams, and, frankly, some dumb luck, the Jets aren't even in the playoffs. The match-ups they face against New England will prove to be insurmountable.
Winner: Patriots

Championship Round:
Ravens at Patriots
The Patriots will devour the chance to avenge the embarrassing loss they suffered to the Ravens in the Playoffs. Bending but not breaking, the Patriots young Defense gets all of their "Big game" jitters out of the way as Brady has his second post season game without an INT.
Winner: Patriots

NFC
Wild Card Round:
Packers at Eagles
This game is just as hard to predict as the Jets/Colts game. The difference is, while neither the Jets nor the Colts would make it to Dallas, I could see either of these teams headed to the big dance. That's what makes this game so difficult. Sending either team home could mess up all of my future predictions! When all is said and done, I think that, under the pressure, Vick will try to do too much and the Packers will come out on top.
Winner: Packers

Saints at Seahawks
Listening to sports radio, analysts are searching for any reason why the Saints might lose this game: the trip might be too much, the injuries to their running game, the field surface, playing with a ball specially designed to be invisible to the Saints. None of these will make a difference. Seahawks: You made history by being the only team with a losing record to host a playoff game. Enjoy playing golf next week.
Winner: Saints

Divisional Round:
Saints at Falcons
The Saints are in rough shape. The Falcons are firing on all cylinders. Unable to get a running game going the Saints are forced to the air where the Falcons intercept three of Drew's passes. This is where the defending champions bid for a repeat ends.
Winner: Falcons

Packers at Bears
I've never been able to put much stock in the Bears. And Aaron Rogers seems to be doing amazing things with Favre's old team. When all is said and done, I think the first three quarters will be competitive, but the Packers pull away in the fourth.
Winner: Packers

Championship Round:
Packers at Falcons
The NFL won't be thrilled that they have a couple of non-huge market teams in this game, but after the incredibly competitive battle that ensues, this game will be remembered for a long time! Ryan vs Rogers. Not the changing of the guard, but rather the new guard. A couple of QBs who will meet many more times in the post season. Home field advantage prevails.
Winner: Falcons

Super Bowl
Falcons vs Patriots
The Patriots bitterly remember their last trip to the Super Bowl. There is no chance that Bill Belichick let's that happen again. Young defense? No problem. Rookie Tight Ends? Best in the game. No Pro Bowl receivers? That's nothing new. This isn't the best possible Super Bowl for the casual fan. A more competitive game would be Falcons/Ravens, or even Packers/Steelers. But the way New England is playing, they are unstoppable. Patriots, true to form, win by 3.
Winner: Patriots

There you have it. So it's likely that the Eagles will beat the Packers and go on to beat the Colts in the Super Bowl, because I predicted otherwise. Feel free to provide your predictions. What a great time of year!

DOH! I had the NFC seeded incorrectly! The Packers were a Wild Card team which means they would have faced the Falcons if they won! I've already picked that game as I predicted the Packers defeating the Bears. Which means I have the falcons topping the Packers. My original picks would have had the Saints facing the Bears and I would have picked the Bears over the Saints. Which would lead to a Bears/Falcons Championship game. I don't see the Bears going into Atlanta and beating the Falcons. So my Super Bowl pick remains. Go Patriots!