Seven years and counting! I look forward to this week every year! I enjoy the anticipation of what should be the best two NFL games of the season and I get to sit down and write my favorite post of the year! (In case you are new to JMO, this post is where I break down all four possible Super Bowls, discuss who will win, which one I'd like to see, which one the league and the networks are pulling for, and who the losers are for each game.)
If you'd like to see how I've done in the past, you can read my previous versions here (I'll list them with the year the Super Bowl happened along with the actual teams that faced off):
2007, Colts over Bears;
Game Predicted: Saints over Colts.
Predicted Winner of the Eventual Super Bowl: Colts;
2008, Giants over Patriots;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Giants vs the Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Eventual Super Bowl: Patriots;
2009, Steelers over Cardinals;
Game Predicted: Steelers over Eagles.
Predicted Winner of the Eventual Super Bowl: Steelers;
2010, Saints over Colts;
Game Predicted: Purposeful lack of prediction.
Predicted Winner of the Eventual Super Bowl: Colts;
2011, Packers over Steelers;
Game Predicted: Packers and Steelers
Predicted Winner of the Eventual Super Bowl: Steelers;
2012, Giants over Patriots;
Game Predicted: Giants over Ravens.
Predicted Winner of the Eventual Super Bowl: Patriots
So far I'm 10 for 18 (if I get 1 point for each team in the game and 1 point for the winner of the teams that actually played each other). I had a 100% for 2011 and a premonition pick of 2010's game way back in 2007 (With the Saints winning too!). To maintain my 55% I'll need to get at least 2 correct this year.
Alright, enough about previous years! On to this year's potential Super Bowls from least compelling to most:
Patriots vs Falcons
Let's be honest, nobody really wants to see this match-up. The Falcons are stuck with the perception that they didn't play anyone decent to get to the playoffs this year, and people not from New England are so sick of the success of the Patriots that they'd rather see the Ravens in the Super Bowl than Belichick and company! Not even the fans of the teams want to see this game! The Falcons would rather face Flacco as their defense isn't exactly tailor-made to stop Brady's fast-paced offense. On the other side of the coin, Patriot fans see this game as "too easy" which means it would be really bad if they lost! Matt Ryan has flown under the radar too much for this to be a story about the reigning king of the NFL vs a usurper to his crown. There's just so little for the average fan to get excited about.
Winner: Patriots
Losers: Companies who spend $1 Billion for a 15 second advertisement. Nobody's watching!
Ravens vs Falcons
The Battle of the Birds! Fight of the Fowl! The best thing this game as going for it is the retiree story-line. Both teams have an icon of the game who will be calling it quits after this year: The Falcons have TE Tony Gonzalez who, despite his record breaking career, won his first playoff game last week. The Ravens have LB Ray Lewis who has one ring already (over the Giants in 2000) but would like to end his career winning the big game! That and the pairing of Flacco vs Ryan has some appeal as well: both are considered second tier Quarterbacks. Both are struggling to solidify their name in the annals of NFL lore. This match-up would ensure a victory for one of them.
Winner: Ravens
Loser: The Fantasy Owners who pick the winning QB in next year's league because he won the Super Bowl.
Patriots vs 49ers
Now this would be a good game! With Kaepernick's read option, Gore's running game, and the threat of Crabtree and Davis it would be amazing to watch Belichick's defensive brilliance attempt to slow them down. And that's just half of the game! The other half is watching Brady, Welker, Hernandez, Vereen, Ridley, Lloyd, and Woodhead attempt to surgically dismantle the 49er's D. Other underlying stories: Gronk out. Harbaugh's decision to bench starter Alex Smith in favor of Kaepernick. This is the game I want to see, and this is the game I'm predicting. Now if Hollywood were writing this, Kaepernick would get hurt in the 1st Quarter and Smith would come off the bench and lead his team to victory. In past Super Bowls the Patriots have done well against the animals (Defeating the Rams, Panthers, and Eagles [hence my prediction of a Patriot win over the Falcons]) but have fared poorly against the human(oid) teams (the Giants). This pattern will unfortunately continue.
Winner: 49ers
Loser: Doesn't matter who wins, the loser is Joe Montana
Ravens vs 49ers
And now we've come to the game that everybody wants to see! Ray Lewis with a chance to close out his career with a ring, Kaepernick's unique offense versus the Ravens stingy defense, top all of that off with the fact that the head coaches for these teams are brothers and you've got yourself one exciting football game! In the end, though, I believe the 49ers have more weapons on both sides of the ball. Besides, it's more important to the younger brother that he defeat the older brother (trust me on this one, I know!).
Winner: 49ers
Loser: Mr and Mrs. Harbaugh
There you have it. My predictions for this year's "Big Dance." One major reason I don't think the Ravens will make it is that you get one miracle win per year and they wasted theirs in Denver. Many pundits bringing up two previous Patriot/Raven games. They are saying that the Ravens should have beaten the Patriots in the AFC Championship game last year (despite an expertly defended TD pass that many incorrectly refer to as "dropped" and a missed FG that would have merely tied the game, not won it.) and they are bringing up the Ravens victory over the Patriots earlier this year under the replacement refs! I believe the Patriots will overcome Fluke-o and the Raven to go to their 6th Super Bowl in the Brady era.
One final note: if the 49ers defeat the Falcons, the Patriots will have had three rematches from this season in their quest for a fourth Championship (and it didn't matter who won the the game between the Ravens and Broncos because the Patriots played them both!)
Those are my thoughts, what are yours?
Thursday, January 17, 2013
Wednesday, January 09, 2013
Two New England States to Learn From
During the election, President Obama was fond of using a small New England state to display why his Healthcare plan would be successful. I hope that the President takes a close look at another small New England state as a barometer for his plan to increase taxes, rather than cut spending.
That state is none other than Connecticut. Like much of America, Connecticut's economic woes have mirrored those of the Federal Government. What makes Connecticut special is that the state legislature has enacted the very measures that the President is fighting for on the national level: increasing taxes on the highest wage earners without cutting spending. Though there was (and remains) a predictable result of these actions, those predictions were ignored (as they are being ignored on the national level) and the plan went forward.
Needless to say, the predictions became reality. While this is unfortunate for the people of Connecticut, this is a great opportunity for the rest of the country. Political pundits no longer have to predict what will happen when the Federal Government increases taxes without sufficiently cutting spending, they can simply observe what has occurred in Connecticut. Here is the step by step account, complete with corresponding news articles, chronicling the attempts the politicians in Connecticut took to attempt to avert financial disaster; the very steps the Democrats in Washington are campaigning for; the very steps that did not avert, limit, or even stall Connecticut's financial pangs. But rather worsened them:
Step 1: Tax increases.
Facing a $3.5 Billion budget deficit, Governor Malloy instituted a budget which did not cut a significant amount of spending but increased taxes. However, seeing that these actions were insufficient, in May of 2011 the Governor asked for, and the legislature approved a retroactive tax hike for the majority of Connecticut residents, the lion's share of which fell on the wealthy. These increases took effect in August of 2011 and appeared to be massive as they were retroactive all the way back to January. The politicians responsible for this barely Constitutional act attempted to alleviate the concerns of the middle class who saw their pay plummet by assuring them the taxes would decrease in January 2012. The truth of their statements is that the tax rate would remain the same, but the amount withheld would decrease as it would be only for that pay period, not for that and previous pay periods as they'd experienced during the second half of 2011.
Step 2: A balanced budget.
Good news! The initial increase in the original budget combined with the secondary and retroactive increase and a modest union concession package was sufficient for economists to project that Connecticut had finally balanced its budget and was no longer operating on a deficit. This, of course, was based on the anticipation that such an unprecedented tax increase would not have an impact on those factors on which tax revenue depends: employment, consumer spending, citizens relying on the social safety net to name a few.
Step 3: An "unforeseen" shortfall.
Beginning in the second quarter of 2012, it became apparent that the state's budget was not going to finish the year balanced, as had previously been projected. And, as the year progressed, the shortfall became greater and greater. $1 Million, $25 Million, $80 Million. Before long, Connecticut was facing a $365 Million dollar budget deficit for 2012 and an even greater shortfall in 2013. 2013 was shaping up to be close to a $2 Billion deficit. $365 Million for 2012 wouldn't be so terrible if we hadn't been told earlier in the year that the massive impact to our wallets was enough to balance the budget. And to add insult to injury the deficit for next year is inching closer and closer to the original figure that the tax increase was designed to eliminate!
Step 4: Uncovering why the budget wasn't balanced.
While Connecticut Democrats were surprised at the "shortfall," fiscal conservatives pointed to the pre-tax increase expectations that predicted the inability of a tax increase to solve the states fiscal problems. The primary reason for the shortfall is the state collected less tax than originally anticipated. This includes lower income, sales, corporate, cigarette, cigar, alcohol, gas, and estate taxes. What could be the systemic cause of this? It is two fold: When consumers see more coming out of their paychecks, and they take less home, they are intentional about spending less. This means less in retail sales. They travel less, or group necessary trips together: less gas tax. They cut back on items that are expensive due to their high taxation: cigars, cigarettes, alcohol.
The second cause was just as foreseeable: Companies (most of which are small and subject to the personal income tax level) go under, or layoff workers: lower income and corporate taxes. Look at the unemployment level in Connecticut following the institution of the tax increase. The increase in taxes lead to a spike in unemployment. This spike, in turn, lead to a decrease in consumer spending, and an increase on residents relying on the social safety net. From beginning to end: the increase in taxes started a completely foreseeable chain-reaction that lead to an increase in government spending in the realm of social services.
Step 5: A new solution
The state of Connecticut is now wrestling with what should have been the original solution: cutting spending. One of the major difficulties to this endeavor is that in negotiating with the unions, Governor Malloy promised that he would not seek any further concessions for the next three years. Personnel and payroll easily make up one third of the state budget. At least, now they are taking the right action. The only question is, will they be able to cut enough to undo the damage they've done with their tax increase?
As we move ever closer to the (temporarily delayed) fiscal cliff, I ask President Obama to examine the microcosm of his plans to increase national taxes on the rich. I ask him to observe the scientific experiment that is Connecticut's economy. I ask him to, at the very least, balance his attempt to right the US Economy with at least as much in spending cuts as anticipated revenue increase. As we've seen from Connecticut, a tax increase has additional consequences which means we cannot simply assume revenue based on current tax income. You were reelected to be responsible. You took a cue from Connecticut's neighbor to the north, now take one from Connecticut herself!
That state is none other than Connecticut. Like much of America, Connecticut's economic woes have mirrored those of the Federal Government. What makes Connecticut special is that the state legislature has enacted the very measures that the President is fighting for on the national level: increasing taxes on the highest wage earners without cutting spending. Though there was (and remains) a predictable result of these actions, those predictions were ignored (as they are being ignored on the national level) and the plan went forward.
Needless to say, the predictions became reality. While this is unfortunate for the people of Connecticut, this is a great opportunity for the rest of the country. Political pundits no longer have to predict what will happen when the Federal Government increases taxes without sufficiently cutting spending, they can simply observe what has occurred in Connecticut. Here is the step by step account, complete with corresponding news articles, chronicling the attempts the politicians in Connecticut took to attempt to avert financial disaster; the very steps the Democrats in Washington are campaigning for; the very steps that did not avert, limit, or even stall Connecticut's financial pangs. But rather worsened them:
Step 1: Tax increases.
Facing a $3.5 Billion budget deficit, Governor Malloy instituted a budget which did not cut a significant amount of spending but increased taxes. However, seeing that these actions were insufficient, in May of 2011 the Governor asked for, and the legislature approved a retroactive tax hike for the majority of Connecticut residents, the lion's share of which fell on the wealthy. These increases took effect in August of 2011 and appeared to be massive as they were retroactive all the way back to January. The politicians responsible for this barely Constitutional act attempted to alleviate the concerns of the middle class who saw their pay plummet by assuring them the taxes would decrease in January 2012. The truth of their statements is that the tax rate would remain the same, but the amount withheld would decrease as it would be only for that pay period, not for that and previous pay periods as they'd experienced during the second half of 2011.
Step 2: A balanced budget.
Good news! The initial increase in the original budget combined with the secondary and retroactive increase and a modest union concession package was sufficient for economists to project that Connecticut had finally balanced its budget and was no longer operating on a deficit. This, of course, was based on the anticipation that such an unprecedented tax increase would not have an impact on those factors on which tax revenue depends: employment, consumer spending, citizens relying on the social safety net to name a few.
Step 3: An "unforeseen" shortfall.
Beginning in the second quarter of 2012, it became apparent that the state's budget was not going to finish the year balanced, as had previously been projected. And, as the year progressed, the shortfall became greater and greater. $1 Million, $25 Million, $80 Million. Before long, Connecticut was facing a $365 Million dollar budget deficit for 2012 and an even greater shortfall in 2013. 2013 was shaping up to be close to a $2 Billion deficit. $365 Million for 2012 wouldn't be so terrible if we hadn't been told earlier in the year that the massive impact to our wallets was enough to balance the budget. And to add insult to injury the deficit for next year is inching closer and closer to the original figure that the tax increase was designed to eliminate!
Step 4: Uncovering why the budget wasn't balanced.
While Connecticut Democrats were surprised at the "shortfall," fiscal conservatives pointed to the pre-tax increase expectations that predicted the inability of a tax increase to solve the states fiscal problems. The primary reason for the shortfall is the state collected less tax than originally anticipated. This includes lower income, sales, corporate, cigarette, cigar, alcohol, gas, and estate taxes. What could be the systemic cause of this? It is two fold: When consumers see more coming out of their paychecks, and they take less home, they are intentional about spending less. This means less in retail sales. They travel less, or group necessary trips together: less gas tax. They cut back on items that are expensive due to their high taxation: cigars, cigarettes, alcohol.
Step 5: A new solution
The state of Connecticut is now wrestling with what should have been the original solution: cutting spending. One of the major difficulties to this endeavor is that in negotiating with the unions, Governor Malloy promised that he would not seek any further concessions for the next three years. Personnel and payroll easily make up one third of the state budget. At least, now they are taking the right action. The only question is, will they be able to cut enough to undo the damage they've done with their tax increase?
As we move ever closer to the (temporarily delayed) fiscal cliff, I ask President Obama to examine the microcosm of his plans to increase national taxes on the rich. I ask him to observe the scientific experiment that is Connecticut's economy. I ask him to, at the very least, balance his attempt to right the US Economy with at least as much in spending cuts as anticipated revenue increase. As we've seen from Connecticut, a tax increase has additional consequences which means we cannot simply assume revenue based on current tax income. You were reelected to be responsible. You took a cue from Connecticut's neighbor to the north, now take one from Connecticut herself!
Friday, January 04, 2013
2012-2013 NFL Playoff Preview
It is difficult to believe that the NFL season is already over. It feels like it just began four weeks ago. It also seems that, once again, the only topic that brings me back to my blog is sports. (There's more politics waiting in the wings) I didn't even have a chance to do my traditional pre-season predictions! But here's how I would have done:
AFC:
East: Prediction: New England. Actual: New England. No surprises there.
West: Prediction: Denver. Actual: Denver. When Manning joins your team, how can anyone bet against you?
North: Prediction: Pittsburgh. Actual: Baltimore. The Ravens would have done it to me again, coming out on top when I picked the Steelers.
South: Prediction: Houston. Actual: Houston. Really no other options here.
Wild Card: Predictions: Baltimore and San Diego. Actual: Cincinnati and Indianapolis
NFC:
East: Prediction: Dallas. Actual: Washington (would have correctly predicted that the Super Bowl Champions would NOT make it back to the playoffs.)
West: Prediction: San Fransisco. Actual: San Fransisco. Seattle was a surprise, wouldn't have seen any competition here.
North: Prediction: Detroit. Actual: Green Bay. I know. Detroit. I get it.
South: Prediction: New Orleans. Actual: Atlanta.
Wild Card: Prediction: Green Bay and Washington. Actual: Seattle and Minnesota.
Without further ado. JMO's Playoff Predictions
AFC
Wild Card Round:
Colts at Ravens
To be honest, I'm not really confident about any of the games this week. The underdogs have some great match-ups, but the favorites could easily walk into the next round. I'm going to pick the Colts in this one. I just don't think Flaco has what it takes to overcome the Colts.
Winner: Colts
Bengals at Texans
A rematch of last year's wild card game. Houston came out on top last time and, despite their recent losing streak, they'll emerge victorious this time too.
Winner: Texans
Divisional Round:
Houston at Patriots
We've seen this game already this year. And a win over the Bengals won't be enough to lift the confidence of the Texans enough to elevate them over New England. Brady is hard to beat with his passing game, he's nearly undefeatable with a powerful running game, like they've had this year. It won't be as lop sided as it was during the regular season, but the Texans will be heading home from Foxboro.
Winner: Patriots
Colts at Broncos
Payton vs his replacement. And the Master will triumph over the learner. Denver easily wins over the Colts.
Winner: Broncos
Championship Round:
Patriots at Broncos
Historically, the Patriots haven't done well against the Broncos. They knocked the Patriots out of the playoffs on a famous pick six that was fumbled out of the end zone, but called out on the 1. Historically, Payton doesn't do well against the Patriots. Which trend will continue? Belichick is in Manning's head.
Winner: Patriots
NFC
Wild Card Round:
Vikings at Packers
This game is so difficult to predict. AP ran for over 200 yards against the Pack last week, but it was in Minnesota. AR (Rodgers) didn't look like himself. I don't think both of these will happen again, even though I'm rooting for the Vikings.
Winner: Packers
Seahawks at Redskins
Another great match-up. Here are two teams that are mirror images of each other. Rookie QBs, Run first, stop the run teams. The Redskins run game and run D are both better than Seattle's. Despite their record braking scoring run, Seattle loses.
Winner: Redskins
Divisional Round:
Packers at 49ers
The 49ers surprised a lot of people with the amount of success they had this year, particularly with their new QB. This game will depend on which Aaron Rodgers shows up. I think that the less-than-stellar version flies into Candlestick park and the Packers pack it up and head home.
Winner: 49ers
Redskins at Falcons
Bad news for the #1 seed. Ignoring the fact that they achieved their first seed by facing the fewest teams that finished the season by heading to the playoffs, they aren't really that good. And the Redskins are on a roll. The #1 seed loses.
Winner: Redskins
Championship Round:
Redskins at 49ers
Another battle of someone inexperienced QBs. The difference? The 49ers have been here before. Their experience (particularly in returning punts) elevates them over the Cinderella-Skins.
Winner: 49ers
Super Bowl
49ers vs Patriots
The Patriots played all three of the teams they met in the playoffs in the regular season. and they should have defeated all three of them. The unfortunate scenario for the 49ers this time is that the ball won't be covered in ice. With the Patriots keeping possession of the ball, Brady achieves his fourth Super Bowl victory. And Wes Welker is awarded Super Bowl MVP, effectively erasing the criticism he received last year.
Winner: Patriots
There you have it. So now it's likely that the Super Bowl will be a battle of Rookies with RGIII going against Andrew Luck because I predicted something other than that. Feel free to provide your predictions. What a great time of year!
AFC:
East: Prediction: New England. Actual: New England. No surprises there.
West: Prediction: Denver. Actual: Denver. When Manning joins your team, how can anyone bet against you?
North: Prediction: Pittsburgh. Actual: Baltimore. The Ravens would have done it to me again, coming out on top when I picked the Steelers.
South: Prediction: Houston. Actual: Houston. Really no other options here.
Wild Card: Predictions: Baltimore and San Diego. Actual: Cincinnati and Indianapolis
NFC:
East: Prediction: Dallas. Actual: Washington (would have correctly predicted that the Super Bowl Champions would NOT make it back to the playoffs.)
West: Prediction: San Fransisco. Actual: San Fransisco. Seattle was a surprise, wouldn't have seen any competition here.
North: Prediction: Detroit. Actual: Green Bay. I know. Detroit. I get it.
South: Prediction: New Orleans. Actual: Atlanta.
Wild Card: Prediction: Green Bay and Washington. Actual: Seattle and Minnesota.
Without further ado. JMO's Playoff Predictions
AFC
Wild Card Round:
Colts at Ravens
To be honest, I'm not really confident about any of the games this week. The underdogs have some great match-ups, but the favorites could easily walk into the next round. I'm going to pick the Colts in this one. I just don't think Flaco has what it takes to overcome the Colts.
Winner: Colts
Bengals at Texans
A rematch of last year's wild card game. Houston came out on top last time and, despite their recent losing streak, they'll emerge victorious this time too.
Winner: Texans
Divisional Round:
Houston at Patriots
We've seen this game already this year. And a win over the Bengals won't be enough to lift the confidence of the Texans enough to elevate them over New England. Brady is hard to beat with his passing game, he's nearly undefeatable with a powerful running game, like they've had this year. It won't be as lop sided as it was during the regular season, but the Texans will be heading home from Foxboro.
Winner: Patriots
Colts at Broncos
Payton vs his replacement. And the Master will triumph over the learner. Denver easily wins over the Colts.
Winner: Broncos
Championship Round:
Patriots at Broncos
Historically, the Patriots haven't done well against the Broncos. They knocked the Patriots out of the playoffs on a famous pick six that was fumbled out of the end zone, but called out on the 1. Historically, Payton doesn't do well against the Patriots. Which trend will continue? Belichick is in Manning's head.
Winner: Patriots
NFC
Wild Card Round:
Vikings at Packers
This game is so difficult to predict. AP ran for over 200 yards against the Pack last week, but it was in Minnesota. AR (Rodgers) didn't look like himself. I don't think both of these will happen again, even though I'm rooting for the Vikings.
Winner: Packers
Seahawks at Redskins
Another great match-up. Here are two teams that are mirror images of each other. Rookie QBs, Run first, stop the run teams. The Redskins run game and run D are both better than Seattle's. Despite their record braking scoring run, Seattle loses.
Winner: Redskins
Divisional Round:
Packers at 49ers
The 49ers surprised a lot of people with the amount of success they had this year, particularly with their new QB. This game will depend on which Aaron Rodgers shows up. I think that the less-than-stellar version flies into Candlestick park and the Packers pack it up and head home.
Winner: 49ers
Redskins at Falcons
Bad news for the #1 seed. Ignoring the fact that they achieved their first seed by facing the fewest teams that finished the season by heading to the playoffs, they aren't really that good. And the Redskins are on a roll. The #1 seed loses.
Winner: Redskins
Championship Round:
Redskins at 49ers
Another battle of someone inexperienced QBs. The difference? The 49ers have been here before. Their experience (particularly in returning punts) elevates them over the Cinderella-Skins.
Winner: 49ers
Super Bowl
49ers vs Patriots
The Patriots played all three of the teams they met in the playoffs in the regular season. and they should have defeated all three of them. The unfortunate scenario for the 49ers this time is that the ball won't be covered in ice. With the Patriots keeping possession of the ball, Brady achieves his fourth Super Bowl victory. And Wes Welker is awarded Super Bowl MVP, effectively erasing the criticism he received last year.
Winner: Patriots
There you have it. So now it's likely that the Super Bowl will be a battle of Rookies with RGIII going against Andrew Luck because I predicted something other than that. Feel free to provide your predictions. What a great time of year!
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