Friday, January 08, 2021

2020-2021 NFL Playoff Preview

What a strange year it has been. It's nice to take some time to think about something that has little importance like the NFL playoffs. We have two extra games to consider due to the additional wild card teams. I'll try to break them down in the order in which they will be played

Wild Card
Saturday
AFC Colts at Bills
The Colts are the team that wouldn't have made the playoffs any other year. The Bills are the team that would have had the second bye week. This shouldn't be a difficult task for the Bills to advance.
Winner: Bills

NFC Rams at Seahawks
These two teams faced off twice in the regular season. They split those matchups, each winning their home game. A major difference in this game is that Goff had surgery 12 days ago and isn't expected to play. Even though the Rams were a playoff team two years ago, I don't expect them to be able to surpass the Seahawks.
Winner: Seahawks

NFC Bucaneers at Football Team
You read that right, an NFL playoff game is being hosted by a team called "Football Team." The Washington Mascotless team managed to win the NFC East - the division that someone had to win (interestingly, each team had sole possesion of both first and last place at some point this season). TB12 and his TB squad shouldn't have any problem overcoming the Football Team.
Winner: Buccaneers

Sunday
AFC Ravens at Titans
Last year the Titans shocked the NFL when they defeated Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. This year, when they do it again, fewer people will be surprised. It'll be closer than the last meeting, but the Ravens barely deserve to be in the post season. They won't advance past the mighty Titans.
Winner: Titans

NFC Bears at Saints
Probably the easiest game to predict. While those of us who want to see Brady succeed want to see the Saints knocked off by the Bears that isn't going to happen. The Saints will easily roll past the struggling Bears.
Winner: Saints

AFC Browns at Steelers
The Steelers are the biggest pretenders in the post season. Ranked 14th out of 14 playoff teams in the JMO power rankings the Steelers will struggle to score against the Browns. Starting 11-0 thanks to a weak schedule is the only reason the Steelers are even in the playoffs. They will bow out early.
Winner: Browns

Divisional Round
Saturday
NFC Buccaneers at Packers
Finally Brady and Rogers meet up in the Post season! While Brady doesn't have the vaunted defense that he's enjoyed with many of his Championship Patriot teams the Buccaneers D will be enough to prevent Rogers from scoring over 30 points. This will be enough to allow Brady to orchestrate a last minute scoring drive to elevate the Buccaneers over the Packers.
Winner: Buccaneers

AFC Titans at Bills
These two teams are very similar in their game plans. The trouble is, the Bills are better on both sides of the ball. Expect a close game until late in the 3rd when the Bills begin to pull away.
Winner: Bills

Sunday
AFC Browns at Chiefs
The Browns benefitted from facing off against a weak team in the Wild Card round. They don't get the same benefit this round. While the Browns Defense is impressive the Chiefs are simply too explosive to be stopped. Mayfield has made strides but he won't be able to go stride for stride with Mahomes.
Winner: Chiefs

NFC Seahawks at Saints
The Saints multifaceted attack is difficult to scheme for. The Seahawks have excellent defensive personnel but the Saints are just too innovative.
Winner: Saints

Conference Championships
Saturday
AFC Bills at Chiefs
#1 vs #2. A rematch of week 6 when the Chiefs traveled to Buffalo and didn't have too much difficulty disposing of the Bills. While Fitzpatrick and the Bills have the capacity to defeat Mahomes and the Chiefs they won't be able to stop KC late in the game as they pull away to win by over 10 points.
Winner: Chiefs

NFC Buccaneers at Saints
Brady Brees volume 3. We knew they'd meet twice this season, thanks to the playoffs we get to have episode 3 "Revenge of the TB12." Brees and Crew have already beaten Brady and Co twice. Those two games accounted for more than 40% of Bradys INTs this season. The biggest difference between TB12 wearing TB's colors (as opposed to NE's) is that Bruce Arian's preference is "go deep first" where as Belichick's passing game was quick dink and dunks that worked more like a running game. The Saints Defense is specifically structured to defend against this. If Brady is to win he will need to adjust accordingly. Brady is capable of doing this but will Arians allow him to? I doubt it. It's tough to beat the same team 3 times in one season. That may not matter this year.
Winner: Saints

Super Bowl
Chiefs vs Saints
One really can't go wrong with any of the potential Super Bowls: Bills Buccaneers has the Brady vs old rivalry angle. Chiefs Buccaneers has the Mahomes Brady rematch and this time its for the Lombardi Trophy. Chiefs Saints has two powerful passing offenses facing off against each other. Bills Chiefs has two rising teams competing to see who will be the best. Bills Saints is probably the least compelling of the matchups. Buccaneers Bills is what I'd want to see. Chiefs Saints is what I expect. The Saints will jump out to a strong early lead and then be able to rely on their secondary to prevent the explosive deep passing game of Mahomes and Hill. Expect Kelce to have a big game and if the Chiefs manage to eek out a win he'll likely get MVP honors. However, this will be Brees' opportunity to win his second Lombardi trophy and retire on top.
Winner: Saints

Just for fun, Chiefs win against the Bucs, Bills would lose to either NFC team. I usually do a pretty poor job at predicting these. Let's see if that holds true. I hope you enjoyed reading what amounts to be Just My Opinion.

1 comment:

Marc said...

4 out of six isn't too bad. How about I break from tradition and speculate on the games that are actually happening?

Saturday
NFC
Rams at Packers
The Rams defense has really proven itself recently. However, as I didn't expect the Rams to get past the Seahawks I certainly expect Rogers and Green Bay to send the Rams packing.
Winner: Packers

AFC
Ravens at Bills
Well, both of the teams I thought would lose are playing on Saturday. This will be a good match up however I think the Ravens are too reliant on Lamar Jackson and the Bills can scheme to prevent him from having a breakout game.
Winner: Bills

Sunday
AFC
Browns at Chiefs
The Browns are flying high after winning their first playoff game in 25 years. That's right, the last time the Browns won a playoff game Tom Brady was in high school. The last time the Browns won two playoff games in the same post season was 70 years ago! That streak will continue as the Browns do not have enough offense to be able to respond when the Chiefs execute on their explosive game plan.
Winner: Chiefs

NFC
Buccaneers at Saints
Episode III Revenge of the Myth (I wanted to go with Revenge of the Saints as that's close to "Sith" but it doesn't fit the narrative). Brees vs Brady volume three will be the final Divisional playoff game. The Saints have trounced the Buccaneers twice already this year by a cumulative total of 72-26 (34-23 & 38-3). Now, don't expect Brady and the Bucs to score only 3 and also don't expect Brees and the Saints to exceed 30 points. This game will be much closer than the other two meetings this season. If the Buccaneers can keep it close enough for Brady to have a chance to orchestrate a game winning drive late in the fourth quarter, I expect him to do so. (The difficulty is, if Brees has the same opportunity I believe he can also achieve the victory. I guess last QB with the ball wins?) I guess I'll go with the team I picked in the original post.
Winner: Saints

Championship Games:
AFC
Bills at Chiefs
(see breakdown in original post)
Winner: Chiefs

NFC
Saints at Packers
Rogers vs Brees. These two QBs (along with Brady and Rivers) make up the exiting older generation of great QBs. Who will emerge victorious? Rogers is a better QB than Brees but the Saints offense is more potent than the Packers. The Packers defense is better in points allowed but worse in take aways. All in all this will be a great matchup, the better defense will stop the better offense.
Winner: Packers

Super Bowl
Chiefs vs Packers
With Brady, Brees, and Rogers being 3 of the 4 remaining QBs for the NFC it almost didn't matter who Mahomes faced it would be a match-up of generations. The question is, can the Packers Defense keep Rogers in the game? Yes they can. Will it be enough for the Packers to win? I don't think so. Mahomes wins back-to-back championships
Winner: Chiefs