Wednesday, January 06, 2010

NFL Playoff Preview

It's that time again: Time for me to review how my preseason predictions panned out. In this post I'll also be cursing at least four teams by predicting that they will do well in the playoffs!

You can find my preseason preview here. Here's how I did:

AFC
East
Prediction: Patriots
Actual: Patriots

West
Prediction: Chargers
Actual: Chargers
(Other notable prediction: Denver would not win the division due to the preseason trade and that trade would keep them from the wild card. This didn't look good as Denver started out 6-0 but still managed to miss the playoffs)

North
Prediction: Steelers
Actual: Bengals

South
Prediction: Jaguars
Actual: Colts
(Um, yeah, Jaguars finished dead last)

Wild Card
Prediction: Colts & Titans
Actual: Ravens & Jets

NFC
East
Prediction: Giants
Actual: Cowboys
(This prediction looked pretty good when the Giants were 5-0, but they managed to miss the playoffs entirely.)

West
Prediction: Cardinals
Actual: Cardinals

North
Prediction: Vikings
Actual: Vikings
(Other notable prediction: Detroit would win two whole games this year. That's exactly how many they won!)

South
Prediction: Panthers
Actual: Saints
(Panthers came in second...)

Wild Card
Prediction: Cowboys & Falcons
Actual: Packers & Eagles

And when it comes to my preseason playoff predictions all that I have to say for them is that my Super Bowl is still possible (though unlikely) with Patriots vs Vikings.

Playoff Predictions
I don't know that I've had more trouble picking winners than I've had this year. Complicating matters is that three of the four first round contests are rematches of week 17 games. In all three cases one team completely dominated the other. Should be easy, right? Wrong. I guarantee that round one will not have the exact same outcome as week 17.

Alright, here we go:

AFC
Wild Card Round:
Jets at Bengals
The Jets absolutely owned the Bengals last week. But here's the problem: more than any other team, the Bengals controlled who they faced this week (as they played Sunday night). If they beat the Jets, they would have faced Baltimore. In losing to the Jets, they face the Jets. They played a team who needed to win and saw how they did it. Now they know how to beat them. The Bengals selected their opponent and did so accurately.
Winner: Bengals

Ravens at Patriots
The Patriots purposefully lost to the Texans to prevent the Steelers from getting into the playoffs. While the Patriots have struggled this year, they haven't done so at home. Patriots win even without Welker.
Winner: Patriots

Divisional Round:
Bengals at Chargers
The Chargers are one of the only teams going into the playoffs with a winning streak. The Jets have a 2 game winning streak but both teams basically forfeited the games. Bengals will be unable to overcome the Chargers.
Winner: Chargers

Patriots at Colts
The Patriots should have beaten the Colts earlier in the season. Even though the Colts have been struggling (needing a fourth quarter comeback to achieve half of their victories and are on a two game losing streak) the Patriots are without Welker. Will the pressure be too much for a rookie coach? Will Belichick out think the Colts? It will be a good game, a close game, but the Colts will emerge victorious.
Winner: Colts

Championship Round:
Chargers at Colts
No contest. The Chargers will be on a 12 game winning streak, the Colts will have won one of their last three games. Having given up in the last two games of the season, the added pressure to win it all is too great for Peyton. He throws an incredible three interceptions. His third coming during a last gasp fourth quarter comeback attempt that (obviously) falls short. This will, yet again, give Colts fans a reason to despise the Chargers, almost as much as they hate the Patriots.
Winner: Chargers

NFC
Wild Card Round:
Eagles at Cowboys
I've heard it said that it's very hard to defeat a team three times in one season. That is what the Cowboys would have to do if they are to defeat the Eagles. Something else working against the Cowboys is that they haven't won a playoff game since 1996. And yet, both the Eagles and the Cowboys had everything to play for last week: Division on the line, host a playoff game, beat a hated rival. And who came out on top? The Cowboys ~ and it wasn't close. Once again, everything is on the line: Win, move on; lose, go home. Eagles are going home.
Winner: Cowboys

Packers at Cardinals
This is the hardest game for me to figure out. There was no reason for either team to go all out last week, and yet both did. And in doing so, the Cardinals looked mediocre and the Packers, stellar. But the Cardinals are so inconsistent that they just might win this game. And the Packers have proven inconsistent enough that they might lose it. Somehow, I don't think they will.
Winner: Packers

Divisional Round:
Packers at Saints
The Saints are in rough shape. Unlike the number one seed in the AFC, the number one seed in the NFC actually tried to win their last three games. But they lost all them (including the 3 win Buccaneers)! The '07 Patriots, '01 Rams, and the '08 Cardinals have shown us that while a powerful offense may get you to the playoffs, you can't win it all without a defense, which is something the Saints lack. Packers shock with a win.
Winner: Packers

Cowboys at Vikings
Some have called the Cowboys "the most dangerous team in the NFC." I don't think those people are paying much attention to one of the leagues most talented rushers with the most experienced active Quarterback at the helm. Romo may be good, but Favre is great. With the "controversy" in the Vikings locker room over, and with Childress recognizing that he needs to trust his star QB, the Cowboys don't stand a chance.
Winner: Vikings

Championship Round:
Packers at Vikings
The "Don't Miss" match-up of the post season. Favre takes on his old team. Two power running games match up against two great defenses. Something's gotta give. Something has to separate these two teams. Favre is the difference maker.
Winner: Vikings

Super Bowl
Chargers vs Vikings
We'd be in for a treat of a Super Bowl. The second year in a row where one man stands poised on the brink of history as the first Quarterback to lead two different teams to a Super Bowl victory. The other team has a leader who is beginning to be in the discussion with such greats as Brady and Manning. Does youth triumph over age? Or does experience dominate the new comer? I'd like to see Favre win.
Winner: Chargers

There you have it. Now we know that the Chargers will definitely not win it all. Let's see who actually does! Feel free to provide your predictions. What a great time of year!

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