It is difficult to believe that this is the eighth edition of what has come to be my favorite annual post: All Four Super Bowl Previews. (In case you are new to JMO, this post is where I break down all four possible Super Bowls, discuss who will win, which one I'd like to see, which one the league and the networks are pulling for, and who the losers are for each game.) I thoroughly enjoy NFL Playoff season. The best teams playing the games with the highest stakes. Some underdogs that "shouldn't win" shock the favorite, some games come down to the wire, some of the best teams show exactly why they belong in the playoffs. It's fun predicting the outcome of these next two games and the outcome of each of the possible Super Bowls. If you'd like to see how I've done in the past, you can read my previous versions here (I'll list them with the year the Super Bowl happened along with the actual teams that faced off):
2007, Colts over Bears;
Game Predicted: Saints over Colts.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Colts;
2008, Giants over Patriots;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Giants vs the Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots;
2009, Steelers over Cardinals;
Game Predicted: Steelers over Eagles.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Steelers;
2010, Saints over Colts;
Game Predicted: Purposeful lack of prediction.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Colts;
2011, Packers over Steelers;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Packers and Steelers
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Steelers;
2012, Giants over Patriots;
Game Predicted: Giants over Ravens.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots
2013, Ravens over 49ers;
Game Predicted: 49ers over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: 49ers
Since I started this tradition I'm 11 for 21. (if I get 1 point for each team in the game and 1 point for the winner of the teams that actually played each other). I dropped from 55% to 52% having only accurately predicted the presence of the 49ers in last year's game.
Alright, enough about previous years! On to this year's potential Super Bowls!
An interesting aspect of this year's potential Super Bowls is the bizarre lack of uniqueness of each game. The team representing the AFC will be a high powered offense captained by a Hall-of-Fame bound franchise quarterback combined with a suspect defense lead by a defensive-minded head coach. The NFC will be represented by a team with a top-notch, league-leading defense on one side of the ball with a "next-generation" run-n-gun, read option quarterback who has had games where he lead his team in rushing and can dismantle the opposition's D with his arm or his feet on the other. All four games offer the old-guard vs up-and-comer storyline. I'll have to work pretty hard to find the differences between these four games.
Without further ado, here are this year's games from least compelling to most: (Again, there's not a lot of difference here)
Patriots vs Seahawks
I think this game has the least to offer to the average fan. Seattle isn't a very big market and everyone except Patriot fans are so sick of Brady and company. The Patriots have been in 8 out of the last 13 AFC Championship games. Ignoring the year Brady was knocked out week one, he's lead the boys from Foxboro to the Championship game 2 out of every 3 years of his career. (The next best team is the Steelers, achieving half of the appearances of Belichick and Brady in the same time frame). The Seahawks lead the league in a number of defensive categories but the Patriots offense isn't as explosive this year as Denver's. Interestingly, Seattle is better against the pass than the rush which, based on the playoffs thus far, would give the Patriots a better chance at winning than the Broncos. It's hard to imagine Belichick being unable to scheme a defense that wouldn't confuse Wilson on his first trip to the big game. But, if the Patriots are unable to stop the triple option offense of the Seahawks and are in a position where Brady has to air it out, that's playing right into the strength of the Seahawks defense. The Super Bowl is in New York this year. The cold weather would normally favor New England. But, unfortunately for the Patriots, Seattle is also a cold weather team. Either Wilson is unable to move the ball against Coach Bill's game plan or the Patriots fall behind and have to play catch-up. Either way, this one will be over early. Who will win? You'll see this a lot on this post: Defense wins championships. Oh, this is the game I'm predicting this year.
Winner: Seahawks
Loser: The TV show FOX is hoping will get a ratings boost by airing it immediately after the game.
Patriots vs 49ers
This game would be interesting. With Kaepernick's read option, Gore's running game, and the threat of Crabtree, Boldin and Davis it would be amazing to watch Belichick's defensive brilliance attempt to slow them down. And that's just half of the game! The other half is watching Brady, Edelman, Amendola, Vereen, Ridley, and Blount attempt to surgically dismantle the 49er's D. Other underlying stories: Gronk out. The weather favors the run which seems to be a push with the Patriots new-found, seemingly unpatriot-like, run and short passing games compared with Gore and Kaepernick's ability to move the ball with their feet. Normally, when discussing Super Bowl experience the scales tip toward the Patriots, but not this time. The 49ers have more players with Super Bowl experience than the Patriots do. The 49ers might be able to score against the Patriots average defense this year, but they won't score enough to prevent a late comeback by Brady and his receivers. With no Welker to drop the key pass this year, Edelman and Vereen become Brady's favorite targets as he drives down the field for a game winning touchdown.
Winner: Patriots
Loser: Joe Montana, either overshadowed by Brady, or replaced by Kaepernick.
Broncos vs Seahawks
The more discerning fan wants to see this match-up. The AFC's #1 offense vs the NFC's #1 defense. Truth be told, Denver and Seattle lead the entire league in their respective categories. This game will come down to turnovers. Seattle lead the league with a +20 turnover difference and Peyton has a frustrating habit (at least for Colts and Broncos fans) of turning the ball over when it matters most. Seattle excels at stopping the pass while the Broncos struggle against the run. There are two other factors that are key to determining who will win this game. First, no quarterback who lead the league in passing for the year has ever won the Super Bowl! In fact, only four of them have even made it to the big game and all four lost (Brady 2007, Gannon 2002, Warner 2001, Marino 1984). There's a reason for that: Defense wins championships. Peyton set an all time record for passing yards this year. Second, Peyton has only one a single game that was below 32 degrees in his professional career. For whatever inexplicable reason, this year's Super Bowl is in New York. That means cold weather and no dome. The Broncos may have an explosive offense and that got them to the big game, but it won't be able to close the deal. Defense wins Championships.
Winner: Seahawks
Losers: Brady, Peyton, Roethlisberger, Romo, Brees, and Rivers, as the torch is passed to the next generation.
Broncos vs 49ers
Let's be honest, when there's a chance for history to be made, it's what people want to see. Only Craig Morton and Kurt Warner have even had the opportunity to win two Super Bowls with two different teams. Both failed. Now Peyton Manning has that opportunity. Toss in the storyline of Peyton's recovery from multiple neck surgeries and the 49ers chance to redeem themselves from their questionable loss in the final few seconds of last year's game and you've got the most compelling game for both the networks and the casual fan. (This is a good time to mention that this is the game I'd least like to see.) But who wins? The 49ers defense isn't as tough as Seattle's but Denver is better at stopping the pass than the run. Neither team really benefits from the cold, but with Peyton's disposition for losing in cold weather combined with the whole league leading passer fact I don't think the Broncos win this game. Just in case you forgot: Defense wins championships.
Winner: 49ers
Loser: Joe Montana, either overshadowed by Manning, or replaced by Kaepernick
The game I expect to see is the one I've labeled as least compelling: Patriots v Seahawks. I didn't think the 49ers had what it took to defeat the Panthers and they certainly don't have the necessary tools to overcome Seattle. It will be cold in Denver when the Broncos take on the Patriots. Peyton has only beaten Brady once in the playoffs and that was in a dome. The Patriots have proven that they have a lot of weapons that Denver will have to somehow neutralize: the run, the screens, the short pass across the middle, the quick slants, then stretching the field. Belichick always seems to be able to take away the top two strengths of any offense. Denver will have to win without their run game and without Welker. Decker has a habit of dropping passes and Peyton will throw one pick too many. Oh, and both Championship games are rematches from the regular season. Peyton blew a 24 point lead to lose to Brady and Seattle smacked the 49ers with a score of 29 to 3! We'll see a repeat of both outcomes.
Those are my thoughts, what are yours?
Friday, January 17, 2014
Saturday, January 04, 2014
2013-2014 NFL Season Review and Playoff Preview
It has been nearly a year since I've posted something in this invaluable media outlet! There are so many competing reasons as to why that is. Suffice to say: Shame on me! But how could I miss this opportunity to review how I did with this year's NFL predictions and provide teams with bulletin board material and an early exit from the playoffs by predicting that they will do well!
Though I didn't post my preseason predictions, I did write them down. Let's review them now: (You will know it is time to turn the page when you hear the chimes ring, like this: *chimes*. Let's begin... now. Sorry, just what I thought of.)
But here's how I would have done:
AFC:
East: Prediction: New England. Actual: New England. No surprises there.
West: Prediction: Denver. Actual: Denver. Manning plus Welker? Of course they're gonna break records!
North: Prediction: Pittsburgh. Actual: Cincinnati. I did accurately predict that the defending Super Bowl Champions would not make it to the playoffs to defend their title.
South: Prediction: Houston. Actual: Indianapolis. I hang my head in shame here, as the Texans won a whopping two games this year! Though I did have the Colts in the playoffs, just as a Wild Card team.
Wild Card: Predictions: San Diego and Indianapolis. Actual: Kansas City and San Diego (I'm usually pretty proud when I get one of these right.)
NFC:
East: Prediction: Dallas. Actual: Philadelphia (In my defense, the 'Boys had a chance to make my prediction correct in week 17. However, at the end of the game Orton decided to do his best Romo impersonation and throw a season killing INT)
West: Prediction: San Fransisco. Actual: Seattle. I had both the '9ers and the Seahawks in the playoffs, just swapped who would win the division and who would grab the Wild Card
North: Prediction: Detroit. Actual: Green Bay. I know. Detroit. I get it. (Second year in a row they've burned me. They won't do it a third time!)
South: Prediction: Atlanta. Actual: Carolina. I'm not too proud to say it: Shocked! Carolina came out of nowhere in my opinion.
Wild Card: Prediction: Green Bay and Seattle. Actual: San Fransisco and New Orleans.
Without further ado. JMO's Playoff Predictions
AFC
Wild Card Round:
Kansas City at Indianapolis
The Queen of Hearts will tell you that I went super-nerdy this year. I created an expansive Excel spread sheet that tells me almost anything I want to know. And here's one thing that you probably won't read anywhere else: Based on strength of schedule, the Chiefs had the third easiest schedule in the entire NFL this year. Their 9 - 0 start might look impressive on the outside, but they didn't play anyone. The Colts were in the middle of the road with their schedule. Sorry KC, started the year with a bang, ended the regular season with a whimper, and you bow out of the post season early.
Winner: Colts
San Diego at Cincinnati
It doesn't look so good for a team when you need two teams ahead of you to choke the post season away in week 17 and require OT to win your own game against an entire team of back-ups. Normally, I say that the playoff team that lays down and allows another team to get into the post season usually ends up losing to the very team they allowed in. KC won't have to worry about that. They won't get past Indy and SD won't be moving past Cinci.
Winner: Bengals
Divisional Round:
Cincinnati at Patriots
Cincinnati handed the Patriots their first (and one of the few uncontroversial) losses this season. However, that was in Cincinnati, in October, and while Brady and Co. were still getting acquainted. Now that Tom Terrific has had an entire season to work with his WR core they will score more than the six points they managed in these two teams' first meeting. Oh, did I mention it'll be in Foxboro in the freezing cold?
Winner: Patriots
Colts at Broncos
I predicted this game last year but it never occurred as the Colts lost early to the Ravens. The NFL loves it when great story-lines like this one happen in the Post Season. This will be a shoot out but Peyton will give Colts fans a reason not to cheer for him as he and his high powered offense send Andrew Luck-just-ran-out and the Colts back to Indy.
Winner: Broncos
Championship Round:
Patriots at Broncos
Here's what I wrote when I predicted this match-up last year: "Historically, the Patriots haven't done well against the Broncos. They knocked the Patriots out of the playoffs on a famous pick six that was fumbled out of the end zone, but called out on the 1. Historically, Peyton doesn't do well against the Patriots. Which trend will continue? Belichick is in Manning's head." Here's what I want to add: The Patriots have proven they can defeat the Broncos having done so week 12. Yes, that was in Foxboro but consider this: The only time Peyton managed to squeak past the Patriots in the Post Season was in a dome. Now they'll be playing in Denver. Whatever advantage Peyton might have by playing at home, the weather is going to even the playing field. Really, this game is a coin flip, but if I'm flipping a coin between Peyton and Brady, there's only one side that coin can land on.
Winner: Patriots
NFC
Wild Card Round:
New Orleans at Philadelphia
Of all of the teams to make it to the Playoffs, the Saints had the hardest road there. They had the 6th most difficult schedule this year and defeated some impressive teams. Of course, they also lost to the Jets and the Rams. They are fortunate that they've drawn the Eagles in the first round. The Eagles managed a 10-6 record this year, but with the fourth easiest schedule. The only two teams in the Playoffs with easier seasons are the Chiefs and the Packers. The Eagles won't be able to defeat Brees and the Saints.
Winner: Saints
San Fransisco at Green Bay
The Packers have done little to impress this year. They had the second easiest schedule for playoff teams. The teams they've defeated have the lowest winning percentage, and the teams they've lost to have the lowest winning percentage as well! They narrowly got past the Bears to even get to the post season. The 49ers haven't lived up to expectations this year either. I'll never count out any playoff team but I don't expect to see Aaron Rogers in the next round
Winner: 49ers
Divisional Round:
San Fransisco at Carolina
Carolina is on a roll heading into the post season. Their only loss in the last 12 games was to the impressive Saints in New Orleans (though that does include a controversial laden victory over the Patriots.) Carolina tiptoed past the 49ers by a single point in San Fran earlier this year. San Fran has an eerily similar winning streak going into the playoffs as the last time they lost was to the Saints in New Orleans. Something many analysts forget is that West Coast teams playing in the East are not as successful as the converse of that. It will be very close, but Cam will move on.
Winner: Panthers
New Orleans at Seattle
While the Saints were fortunate to draw the Eagles in the Wild Card round, they are not so fortunate in the Divisional Round. The Saints have the distinction of losing to the Seahawks in the 2011 playoffs when Seattle won the division with a 7-9 record. And the Saints lost to Seattle in Seattle this year 34-7. It will be a tall task for Drew to get past Russell.
Winner: Seahawks
Championship Round:
Carolina at Seattle
This is a rematch of a week one contest where the Seahawks won in Carolina by 5 points. That game is too far in the distant past to be a barometer for this one. The real story of this game is that it will be highlighting the next generation of QB in the NFL: Cam Newton vs Russell Wilson. These two signal callers are quite similar: both run an option laden offense and often lead their teams in rushing yards. But that also means that their respective defenses will know exactly how to stop the offenses that have brought them to this level. Which QB will be able to morph his game into one that will overcome his opponent's defense? Which coach will make the necessary half time adjustments? Which team will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl?
Winner: Seattle
Super Bowl
Seahawks vs Patriots
If we look at the games the Patriots have lost this year, many of them were against run & gun/option QBs. Seattle has struggled away from CenturyLink Field. Belichick and company have lots of experience in the post season and in the Super Bowl (Brady has been the Patriot's starter for 12 years [not counting the year he was knocked out week 1], if he can get to the Super Bowl this year he will have played in the Super Bowl and amazing 50% of the seasons he's been starting! 50%!). Russell Wilson has played two whole games in the Post Season prior to this year, defeating the injury ridden Redskins before losing to the Falcons. One factor that may loom large in this game is injuries. The Patriots are depleted in many areas. This may just be their undoing.
Winner: Seahawks
There you have it. So now it's likely that the Super Bowl will be a battle of the big cats with Dalton and the Bengals facing off against Newton and the Panthers just because I predicted something other than that. Feel free to provide your predictions. What a great time of year!
Though I didn't post my preseason predictions, I did write them down. Let's review them now: (You will know it is time to turn the page when you hear the chimes ring, like this: *chimes*. Let's begin... now. Sorry, just what I thought of.)
But here's how I would have done:
AFC:
East: Prediction: New England. Actual: New England. No surprises there.
West: Prediction: Denver. Actual: Denver. Manning plus Welker? Of course they're gonna break records!
North: Prediction: Pittsburgh. Actual: Cincinnati. I did accurately predict that the defending Super Bowl Champions would not make it to the playoffs to defend their title.
South: Prediction: Houston. Actual: Indianapolis. I hang my head in shame here, as the Texans won a whopping two games this year! Though I did have the Colts in the playoffs, just as a Wild Card team.
Wild Card: Predictions: San Diego and Indianapolis. Actual: Kansas City and San Diego (I'm usually pretty proud when I get one of these right.)
NFC:
East: Prediction: Dallas. Actual: Philadelphia (In my defense, the 'Boys had a chance to make my prediction correct in week 17. However, at the end of the game Orton decided to do his best Romo impersonation and throw a season killing INT)
West: Prediction: San Fransisco. Actual: Seattle. I had both the '9ers and the Seahawks in the playoffs, just swapped who would win the division and who would grab the Wild Card
North: Prediction: Detroit. Actual: Green Bay. I know. Detroit. I get it. (Second year in a row they've burned me. They won't do it a third time!)
South: Prediction: Atlanta. Actual: Carolina. I'm not too proud to say it: Shocked! Carolina came out of nowhere in my opinion.
Wild Card: Prediction: Green Bay and Seattle. Actual: San Fransisco and New Orleans.
Without further ado. JMO's Playoff Predictions
AFC
Wild Card Round:
Kansas City at Indianapolis
The Queen of Hearts will tell you that I went super-nerdy this year. I created an expansive Excel spread sheet that tells me almost anything I want to know. And here's one thing that you probably won't read anywhere else: Based on strength of schedule, the Chiefs had the third easiest schedule in the entire NFL this year. Their 9 - 0 start might look impressive on the outside, but they didn't play anyone. The Colts were in the middle of the road with their schedule. Sorry KC, started the year with a bang, ended the regular season with a whimper, and you bow out of the post season early.
Winner: Colts
San Diego at Cincinnati
It doesn't look so good for a team when you need two teams ahead of you to choke the post season away in week 17 and require OT to win your own game against an entire team of back-ups. Normally, I say that the playoff team that lays down and allows another team to get into the post season usually ends up losing to the very team they allowed in. KC won't have to worry about that. They won't get past Indy and SD won't be moving past Cinci.
Winner: Bengals
Divisional Round:
Cincinnati at Patriots
Cincinnati handed the Patriots their first (and one of the few uncontroversial) losses this season. However, that was in Cincinnati, in October, and while Brady and Co. were still getting acquainted. Now that Tom Terrific has had an entire season to work with his WR core they will score more than the six points they managed in these two teams' first meeting. Oh, did I mention it'll be in Foxboro in the freezing cold?
Winner: Patriots
Colts at Broncos
I predicted this game last year but it never occurred as the Colts lost early to the Ravens. The NFL loves it when great story-lines like this one happen in the Post Season. This will be a shoot out but Peyton will give Colts fans a reason not to cheer for him as he and his high powered offense send Andrew Luck-just-ran-out and the Colts back to Indy.
Winner: Broncos
Championship Round:
Patriots at Broncos
Here's what I wrote when I predicted this match-up last year: "Historically, the Patriots haven't done well against the Broncos. They knocked the Patriots out of the playoffs on a famous pick six that was fumbled out of the end zone, but called out on the 1. Historically, Peyton doesn't do well against the Patriots. Which trend will continue? Belichick is in Manning's head." Here's what I want to add: The Patriots have proven they can defeat the Broncos having done so week 12. Yes, that was in Foxboro but consider this: The only time Peyton managed to squeak past the Patriots in the Post Season was in a dome. Now they'll be playing in Denver. Whatever advantage Peyton might have by playing at home, the weather is going to even the playing field. Really, this game is a coin flip, but if I'm flipping a coin between Peyton and Brady, there's only one side that coin can land on.
Winner: Patriots
NFC
Wild Card Round:
New Orleans at Philadelphia
Of all of the teams to make it to the Playoffs, the Saints had the hardest road there. They had the 6th most difficult schedule this year and defeated some impressive teams. Of course, they also lost to the Jets and the Rams. They are fortunate that they've drawn the Eagles in the first round. The Eagles managed a 10-6 record this year, but with the fourth easiest schedule. The only two teams in the Playoffs with easier seasons are the Chiefs and the Packers. The Eagles won't be able to defeat Brees and the Saints.
Winner: Saints
San Fransisco at Green Bay
The Packers have done little to impress this year. They had the second easiest schedule for playoff teams. The teams they've defeated have the lowest winning percentage, and the teams they've lost to have the lowest winning percentage as well! They narrowly got past the Bears to even get to the post season. The 49ers haven't lived up to expectations this year either. I'll never count out any playoff team but I don't expect to see Aaron Rogers in the next round
Winner: 49ers
Divisional Round:
San Fransisco at Carolina
Carolina is on a roll heading into the post season. Their only loss in the last 12 games was to the impressive Saints in New Orleans (though that does include a controversial laden victory over the Patriots.) Carolina tiptoed past the 49ers by a single point in San Fran earlier this year. San Fran has an eerily similar winning streak going into the playoffs as the last time they lost was to the Saints in New Orleans. Something many analysts forget is that West Coast teams playing in the East are not as successful as the converse of that. It will be very close, but Cam will move on.
Winner: Panthers
New Orleans at Seattle
While the Saints were fortunate to draw the Eagles in the Wild Card round, they are not so fortunate in the Divisional Round. The Saints have the distinction of losing to the Seahawks in the 2011 playoffs when Seattle won the division with a 7-9 record. And the Saints lost to Seattle in Seattle this year 34-7. It will be a tall task for Drew to get past Russell.
Winner: Seahawks
Championship Round:
Carolina at Seattle
This is a rematch of a week one contest where the Seahawks won in Carolina by 5 points. That game is too far in the distant past to be a barometer for this one. The real story of this game is that it will be highlighting the next generation of QB in the NFL: Cam Newton vs Russell Wilson. These two signal callers are quite similar: both run an option laden offense and often lead their teams in rushing yards. But that also means that their respective defenses will know exactly how to stop the offenses that have brought them to this level. Which QB will be able to morph his game into one that will overcome his opponent's defense? Which coach will make the necessary half time adjustments? Which team will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl?
Winner: Seattle
Super Bowl
Seahawks vs Patriots
If we look at the games the Patriots have lost this year, many of them were against run & gun/option QBs. Seattle has struggled away from CenturyLink Field. Belichick and company have lots of experience in the post season and in the Super Bowl (Brady has been the Patriot's starter for 12 years [not counting the year he was knocked out week 1], if he can get to the Super Bowl this year he will have played in the Super Bowl and amazing 50% of the seasons he's been starting! 50%!). Russell Wilson has played two whole games in the Post Season prior to this year, defeating the injury ridden Redskins before losing to the Falcons. One factor that may loom large in this game is injuries. The Patriots are depleted in many areas. This may just be their undoing.
Winner: Seahawks
There you have it. So now it's likely that the Super Bowl will be a battle of the big cats with Dalton and the Bengals facing off against Newton and the Panthers just because I predicted something other than that. Feel free to provide your predictions. What a great time of year!
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