All Four Super Bowl Previews VIII

It is difficult to believe that this is the eighth edition of what has come to be my favorite annual post: All Four Super Bowl Previews. (In case you are new to JMO, this post is where I break down all four possible Super Bowls, discuss who will win, which one I'd like to see, which one the league and the networks are pulling for, and who the losers are for each game.) I thoroughly enjoy NFL Playoff season. The best teams playing the games with the highest stakes. Some underdogs that "shouldn't win" shock the favorite, some games come down to the wire, some of the best teams show exactly why they belong in the playoffs. It's fun predicting the outcome of these next two games and the outcome of each of the possible Super Bowls. If you'd like to see how I've done in the past, you can read my previous versions here (I'll list them with the year the Super Bowl happened along with the actual teams that faced off):

2007, Colts over Bears;
Game Predicted: Saints over Colts.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Colts;

2008, Giants over Patriots;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Giants vs the Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots;

2009, Steelers over Cardinals;
Game Predicted: Steelers over Eagles.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Steelers;

2010, Saints over Colts;
Game Predicted: Purposeful lack of prediction.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Colts;

2011, Packers over Steelers;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Packers and Steelers
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Steelers;

2012, Giants over Patriots;
Game Predicted: Giants over Ravens.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots

2013, Ravens over 49ers;
Game Predicted: 49ers over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: 49ers

Since I started this tradition I'm 11 for 21. (if I get 1 point for each team in the game and 1 point for the winner of the teams that actually played each other). I dropped from 55% to 52% having only accurately predicted the presence of the 49ers in last year's game.

Alright, enough about previous years! On to this year's potential Super Bowls!

An interesting aspect of this year's potential Super Bowls is the bizarre lack of uniqueness of each game. The team representing the AFC will be a high powered offense captained by a Hall-of-Fame bound franchise quarterback combined with a suspect defense lead by a defensive-minded head coach. The NFC will be represented by a team with a top-notch, league-leading defense on one side of the ball with a "next-generation" run-n-gun, read option quarterback who has had games where he lead his team in rushing and can dismantle the opposition's D with his arm or his feet on the other. All four games offer the old-guard vs up-and-comer storyline. I'll have to work pretty hard to find the differences between these four games.

Without further ado, here are this year's games from least compelling to most: (Again, there's not a lot of difference here)

Patriots vs Seahawks
I think this game has the least to offer to the average fan. Seattle isn't a very big market and everyone except Patriot fans are so sick of Brady and company. The Patriots have been in 8 out of the last 13 AFC Championship games. Ignoring the year Brady was knocked out week one, he's lead the boys from Foxboro to the Championship game 2 out of every 3 years of his career. (The next best team is the Steelers, achieving half of the appearances of Belichick and Brady in the same time frame). The Seahawks lead the league in a number of defensive categories but the Patriots offense isn't as explosive this year as Denver's. Interestingly, Seattle is better against the pass than the rush which, based on the playoffs thus far, would give the Patriots a better chance at winning than the Broncos. It's hard to imagine Belichick being unable to scheme a defense that wouldn't confuse Wilson on his first trip to the big game. But, if the Patriots are unable to stop the triple option offense of the Seahawks and are in a position where Brady has to air it out, that's playing right into the strength of the Seahawks defense. The Super Bowl is in New York this year. The cold weather would normally favor New England. But, unfortunately for the Patriots, Seattle is also a cold weather team. Either Wilson is unable to move the ball against Coach Bill's game plan or the Patriots fall behind and have to play catch-up. Either way, this one will be over early. Who will win? You'll see this a lot on this post: Defense wins championships. Oh, this is the game I'm predicting this year.
Winner: Seahawks
Loser: The TV show FOX is hoping will get a ratings boost by airing it immediately after the game.

Patriots vs 49ers
This game would be interesting. With Kaepernick's read option, Gore's running game, and the threat of Crabtree, Boldin and Davis it would be amazing to watch Belichick's defensive brilliance attempt to slow them down. And that's just half of the game! The other half is watching Brady, Edelman, Amendola, Vereen, Ridley, and Blount attempt to surgically dismantle the 49er's D. Other underlying stories: Gronk out. The weather favors the run which seems to be a push with the Patriots new-found, seemingly unpatriot-like, run and short passing games compared with Gore and Kaepernick's ability to move the ball with their feet. Normally, when discussing Super Bowl experience the scales tip toward the Patriots, but not this time. The 49ers have more players with Super Bowl experience than the Patriots do. The 49ers might be able to score against the Patriots average defense this year, but they won't score enough to prevent a late comeback by Brady and his receivers. With no Welker to drop the key pass this year, Edelman and Vereen become Brady's favorite targets as he drives down the field for a game winning touchdown.
Winner: Patriots
Loser: Joe Montana, either overshadowed by Brady, or replaced by Kaepernick.

Broncos vs Seahawks
The more discerning fan wants to see this match-up. The AFC's #1 offense vs the NFC's #1 defense. Truth be told, Denver and Seattle lead the entire league in their respective categories. This game will come down to turnovers. Seattle lead the league with a +20 turnover difference and Peyton has a frustrating habit (at least for Colts and Broncos fans) of turning the ball over when it matters most. Seattle excels at stopping the pass while the Broncos struggle against the run. There are two other factors that are key to determining who will win this game. First, no quarterback who lead the league in passing for the year has ever won the Super Bowl! In fact, only four of them have even made it to the big game and all four lost (Brady 2007, Gannon 2002, Warner 2001, Marino 1984). There's a reason for that: Defense wins championships. Peyton set an all time record for passing yards this year. Second, Peyton has only one a single game that was below 32 degrees in his professional career. For whatever inexplicable reason, this year's Super Bowl is in New York. That means cold weather and no dome. The Broncos may have an explosive offense and that got them to the big game, but it won't be able to close the deal. Defense wins Championships.
Winner: Seahawks
Losers: Brady, Peyton, Roethlisberger, Romo, Brees, and Rivers, as the torch is passed to the next generation.

Broncos vs 49ers
Let's be honest, when there's a chance for history to be made, it's what people want to see. Only Craig Morton and Kurt Warner have even had the opportunity to win two Super Bowls with two different teams. Both failed. Now Peyton Manning has that opportunity. Toss in the storyline of Peyton's recovery from multiple neck surgeries and the 49ers chance to redeem themselves from their questionable loss in the final few seconds of last year's game and you've got the most compelling game for both the networks and the casual fan. (This is a good time to mention that this is the game I'd least like to see.) But who wins? The 49ers defense isn't as tough as Seattle's but Denver is better at stopping the pass than the run. Neither team really benefits from the cold, but with Peyton's disposition for losing in cold weather combined with the whole league leading passer fact I don't think the Broncos win this game. Just in case you forgot: Defense wins championships.
Winner: 49ers
Loser: Joe Montana, either overshadowed by Manning, or replaced by Kaepernick

The game I expect to see is the one I've labeled as least compelling: Patriots v Seahawks. I didn't think the 49ers had what it took to defeat the Panthers and they certainly don't have the necessary tools to overcome Seattle. It will be cold in Denver when the Broncos take on the Patriots. Peyton has only beaten Brady once in the playoffs and that was in a dome. The Patriots have proven that they have a lot of weapons that Denver will have to somehow neutralize: the run, the screens, the short pass across the middle, the quick slants, then stretching the field. Belichick always seems to be able to take away the top two strengths of any offense. Denver will have to win without their run game and without Welker. Decker has a habit of dropping passes and Peyton will throw one pick too many. Oh, and both Championship games are rematches from the regular season. Peyton blew a 24 point lead to lose to Brady and Seattle smacked the 49ers with a score of 29 to 3! We'll see a repeat of both outcomes.

Those are my thoughts, what are yours?