It's time once again for the annual recap of JMO's football predictions. The only problem? I didn't make any! Those of you who are aware of the myriad of major life changes over the past year hopefully will forgive my blogging absence. So let's begin this year's installment with a recap of how I did with last year's playoffs:
AFC:
Colts v Chiefs: Prediction Colts, actual Colts
Chargers v Bengals: Prediction Bengals, actual Chargers
Colts v Patriots: Prediction Patriots, actual Patriots
Chargers v Broncos: Prediction Broncos, actual Broncos
Broncos v Patriots: Prediction Patriots, actual Broncos
NFC:
Saints v Eagles: Prediction Saints, actual Saints
49ers v Packers: Prediction 49ers, actual 49ers
49ers v Panthers: Prediction Panthers, actual 49ers
Saints v Seahawks: Prediction Seahawks, actual Seahawks
49ers v Seahawks: Prediction Seahawks, actual Seahawks
Super Bowl
Broncos v Seahawks: Prediction Seahawks, actual Seahawks
Yes, I was one of the few analysts that predicted the leagues best defense would overcome the leagues best offense. I did fairly well overall going 8 for 11 for scoring 73% accuracy!
And now for this years predictions. First, let me say that I don't remember a Wild Card Weekend as up-in-the-air as this one. I don't feel 100% about any of these games. I barely feel 75% about any of them. This will be a very difficult year to predict. I'll do my best to explain why for each game. I'll review them in the order in which they will be played:
NFC Saturday 1st game Cardinals at Panthers
As we a few of this weekend's games, this is a match-up of two teams headed in completely opposite directions. The Cardinals started out with the NFL's best record, lost two QBs and proceeded to lose all offensive power. They scored only 4 offensive TDs in 75 drives and their current QB now holds the record for most NFL passing attempts before securing his first NFL Passing TD. The Panthers, on the other hand, started the year in the hole. Then their defense came alive and began shutting other teams down allowing an average of just over 10 points per game for the final 4 games of the year. The Panthers are the second team in NFL history to host a playoff game with an over all losing record. While the Cardinals defense has kept them in playoff contention I don't see how they can carry the team from Arizona into the next round of the playoffs. This game will likely be very low scoring with the distinct possibility of the Cardinals not scoring an offensive TD. Like the last team to host a post season game with a record below .500 (Seattle Seahawks) the Panthers will emerge victorious and move on to the Divisional Round.
Winner: Panthers
AFC Saturday 2nd game Ravens at Steelers
If the Steelers were at full strength I'd call Big Ben and theTerrible Towel crew in a rout. But they aren't. They are without their top running back Bell who accounted for over 30% of their offense throughout the year and without top Defensive player Polamalu. Those major losses might give the edge to the Ravens. However, consider this statistic: The Steelers are 5-1 against teams with a winning record this year while the Ravens have gone 1-6! The Steelers still have the #1 wide receiver in the league by receiving yards while the Ravens have Flacco and Smith. I'll leave it up to you to decide if Flacco goes in the positive or negative column. I believe it will come down to pressuring the QB. Both Ben and Joe have been known to make poor decisions when facing pressure, particularly up the middle. Which team will move the QB more often? The Steelers, and which QB is more likely to make an error when forced from the pocket? Flacco. The Ravens are facing another team that finished the year over .500 and they will finish this year with a record of 1-7 against such teams.
Winner: Steelers
AFC Sunday 1st game Bengals at Colts
No playoff team has been more inconsistent than the Colts. They blanked the Colts one week only to give up more than 50 to the Steelers the next. The Bengals are not exactly the picture of consistency but their ups and downs have been more like gentle ocean waves rather than the tumultuous roller coaster of the Colts. The question is, can the Bengals win on the road? They beat Denver late in the season to punch their ticket to the post season but the Bengals have struggled in the NFL's second season. They haven't won a playoff game since '91 and are on the verge of setting a record if they lose this game having dropped their last 3 consecutive playoff appearances. Luck leads the lead (tied with the Steeler's Big Ben) for most passing yards this year, but the running game of the Bengals has picked up since they've begun relying more on Rookie Jeremy Hill. Not being sure which Colts team will show up on Sunday, I have to go with the lesser of the two inconsistent teams.
Winner: Bengals
NFC Sunday 2nd game: Lions at Cowboys
Remembering a last second defeat at the hands of the Lions (When Stafford pretended like he was going to spike the ball at the Cowboy's 1 yard line and dove over his offensive linemen for the game winning score) from week 8 of last year, the Cowboys will be out for revenge. This will be a game of great offenses vs suspect defenses. Both the Cowboy's and Lion's running games have been fantastic with the Lions on an up-tick and the Cowboys seeing a slight downward trend in that stat. Both QBs feel like they have something to prove, perhaps Romo more than Stafford as Tony has been blasted for not being able to win when it matters for longer than Matthew. Sporting an 8-0 road record, the Cowboys might prefer this game to be played on the road. But while Reggie Bush and his counter-part Bell have been eating up yards on the ground, the Cowboys have been quietly setting records of their own: Murray's 12 games with greater than 100 yards rushing eclipses Emmitt's franchise record of 11, Romo's three game stretch of 10 TDs with zero picks is better than any 3 game stretch by Aikman, and their 41.3 point per game average in December is fourth only to the '13 Broncos, '07 Patriots, and '01 Rams. Now, if Roger Goodell were a REAL commissioner, then Suh would NOT be playing in this game due to his conduct and intentional attempt at injuring the Packer's QB Aaron Rogers. However, his appeal allows him to suit up and bring his dirty play to this game. That levels the playing field a bit more but I foresee the Cowboys still coming out on top.
Winner: Cowboys
Divisional Round:
AFC Saturday 1st game Bengals at Patriots
A game I (incorrectly) predicted would occur last year will likely happen this year. Not much to say about this game. The Patriots were (essentially) undefeated at home this year (losing the final game in a lack-luster performance where many starters didn't play and Brady played less than one half) and the Bengals were 5-3 on the road. Those three losses? All to playoff teams including the Patriots. Dalton's run at his first Super Bowl ends here.
Winner: Patriots
NFC Saturday 2nd game Panthers at Seahawks
While the Wild Card games were incredibly difficult to predict, the Divisional Games seem to be lending themselves to a greater amount of certainty. While the Panthers didn't exactly limp into the post season having won their final 4 games, they still have an overall losing record. Even after their victory over the Cardinals they'd still only be 8-8-1. When they head to Seattle to face the last team to host a playoff game with an overall losing record their outcome will be the same: win the first game, lose the second. While the Seahawks have not had the overpowering year they were hoping for, their defense has improved in these final few games and the Panthers offense will not be able to over-come it.
Winner: Seahawks
NFC Sunday 1st game Cowboys at Packers
This is definitely the most difficult of the four divisional games to predict. This rematch of the Ice Bowl features a Green Bay team that is not at 100% with a slightly injured Rogers and a banged up secondary. One can only guess what the cold will do to Roger's aching calf. It also features a Cowboys team that went 8-0 on the road. And these road wins were not all against the slouches of the NFL. They beat the Seahawks in Seattle and then defeated the (then) heir apparent to the NFC East title Philadelphia Eagles. Four of the five teams that have amassed undefeated road records made it all the way to the Super Bowl. I believe the Cowboys good fortune continues.
Winner: Cowboys
AFC Sunday 2nd game Steelers at Broncos
Even though Ben set a record this year with his consecutive week 6 TD pass performance, I still don't expect him to be able to march into Denver and win. Even though Peyton as been trending downward, relying more on the run game, and throwing 4 interceptions in the game against the Bengals week 16 (causing me to lose my fantasy football championship by a measly 2 pts) I still expect him to be able to read and dissect the Steelers D. With the Steelers unable to run the ball as well as they'd like and with the Broncos improving their running game giving more weight to Manning's play fakes, I don't see the Steeler's D as being able to stop the Broncos offense.
Winner: Broncos
Championship Round:
AFC
Broncos at Patriots
A rematch of last years AFC Championship game with one major difference: Location, location, location. The Patriots have already soundly defeated the Broncos at Foxboro earlier this year. However, the Broncos weren't running the ball as much as they are now (as evidenced by the fact that the leading rusher from that game was the Patriots Rookie Jonas Gray with 33 yards.) These two teams are very evenly matched and are within a few spaces of each other in such key areas as Offensive rushing per game, passing per game, and defensive run yards given up per game. The major difference can be found with defensive passing yards given up per game. Often, this is due to a team falling behind and needing to catch up and when dealing with a team that wins close games vs a team that wins blow-outs this stat can be misleading. However, the Broncos and Patriots are very similar in that respect. The Broncos sit at 24th in the league and the Patriots are in the top 50%. This will make the difference and the Patriots will be trying for another Lombardi Trophy.
Winner: Patriots
NFC
Cowboys at Seahawks
Does anyone have a coin? These two teams are very evenly matched and match-up well against each other. The venue seems to favor the Seahawks but the Cowboys have played very well on the road already defeating the Seahawks in Seattle this year. The Cowboys seem like a second tier team compared to the Seahawks and Packers but they have an identical record and if it weren't for tie breakers, they'd have had multiple home games and a bye. Perhaps taking 3rd place favors the 'Boys with their road record this year. The Seahawk's Defense has really struggled this year. They are dead last in passing D and 30th in rushing defense. As the adage goes (and was proved last year) Defense wins championships, and a lack thereof, consequently, losses them.
Winner: Cowboys
Super Bowl
Cowboys vs Patriots
Brady v Romo. Years ago, we'd have expected this to be a perennial match-up but ever since he fumbled the snap on the field goal attempt in his first post season game following the 2006 season, he's never seemed to be the same. Brady seeks to avenge his two losses to the NFC East (and the NFC East's worst QB) in the Big Game where as Romo is hoping for his first ring in his first Big Dance attempt. The Patriots have experience in big games while the Cowboys have experience losing big games. Even though Brady just restructured his contract he will have to answer questions about his possible retirement as he wins his 4th Super Bowl ring following his 6th appearance.
Winner: Patriots
There you have it. If you are a betting person, I recommend betting on what I predicted will NOT happen. If one were to do some reconnaissance on my previous NFL predictions during the preseason, I'm pretty sure we'd see that the Dallas v New England Super Bowl is one that is most commonly predicted. However, this year I believe it's a very high likelihood. Enjoy the games. What a great time of year!
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