It's the most wonderful time of the year! Nope, not Christmas time, NFL Playoff time! Hard to believe it's been another year since I posted but I simply can't refuse the siren call of predicting the NFL Post season. Here is how I did with last year's playoff predictions.
AFC:
Ravens v Steelers: Prediction Steelers, actual Ravens
Colts v Bengals: Prediction Bengals, actual Colts
Bengals v Patriots: Prediction Patriots, actual Patriots
Colts v Broncos: Prediction Broncos, actual Colts
Colts v Patriots: Prediction Patriots, actual Patriots
NFC:
Panthers v Cardinals: Prediction Panthers, actual Panthers
Cowboys v Lions: Prediction Cowboys, actual Cowboys
Seahawks v Panthers: Prediction Seahawks, actual Seahawks
Cowboys v Packers: Prediction Cowboys, actual Packers
Cowboys v Seahawks: Prediction Cowboys, actual Seahawks
Super Bowl
Cowboys v Patriots: Prediction Patriots, actual Patriots
It didn't look like my final prediction was going to hold true with the circus catch and Beast-Mode expectation until Butlers INT. I I went only 6 for 11 for 54% which is unfortunate seeing as half of those predictions were the Patriots! On to this year: Here is how I believe the second best tournament of the year will work itself out (NCAA basketball is #1):
I felt like last year's Wild Card Weekend was up-in-the-air. This year I feel like it's nearly a gimmie. That being said, I'll probably be lucky if I go .500 so don't rush to Vegas with my predictions. I'll review them in the order in which they will be played:
AFC Saturday 1st game Chiefs at Texans
If I were to power rank all 12 of the playoff teams the Texans would be at the bottom. I've heard many people talking about the Chiefs as the sleeper team of the post season. Momentum is a fairly important aspect of the NFL and the Chiefs are carrying a 10 game winning streak. Now, the flip side of that stat is that their wins were against pedestrian teams. Only 2 of which finished the year over .500 and three of their opponents winning fewer than a third of their games. This game will be a close one with Houston's excellent Defense holding KC's very good offense and KC's adequate defense stopping Houston's below average offense. When the clock stops, it's the Chiefs that will be moving on.
Winner: Chiefs
AFC Saturday 2nd game Steelers at Bengals
As a Patriots fan, the Steelers are the team that concern me the most. It wouldn't surprise me if Belichick lost to the Jets to give them control of their own destiny and keep Pittsburgh out of the post season. Then, when he saw that the Bills were whooping up on the Jets he chose to lose to the Dolphins so that if the Patriots had to meet the Steelers it wouldn't be until the AFC Championship game The Bengals, on the other hand would be ranked just above the Texans. With a back up QB and only a few challenges this year, less than half that they rose to, the Bengals are benefiting from early success. That success will not carry them into the next round of the post season. This game will be over by halftime. The Bengals have gone 24 years since their last playoff win. That tally will increase to 25.
Winner: Steelers
NFC Sunday 1st game Seahawks at Vikings
The biggest headline of this game will be the weather. Not because it will be the coldest game of all time, not even close. But with temperatures expected to be around 8 degrees Fahrenheit the NFL could put an end to "Deflategate" (or "Framegate" as it is more appropriately called) once and for all. Simply test those footballs at half time and make the results public. Of course, this will never happen. So, on to the game: Of all the games for wild card weekend, this is the most difficult to predict. The Vikings have had a late season push to finally wrestle the division from the claws of the Packers. Seattle has also had some success against key teams this season, most notably the Cardinals and the Vikings. If we were to go by the meeting in the regular season one would expect the Seahawks to run away with this one as they won by 29. However, the way the Vikings played against the Packers when it mattered gave a glimpse of what the team can do when their back is against the wall. The Seahawks have overcome the curse of the losing Super Bowl team not making the playoffs, but only just barely. It may be interesting to note that the teams who which the Seahawks have lost have the second highest winning record (behind only the Bengals)and the teams they beat have the 3rd lowest winning record (behind the Texans and Bengals). That means they lost to the good teams and beat the bad teams. That might make this pick easier if the Vikings hadn't done much of the same. Edging out the Seahawks by 1.76% in winning percentage of the teams they've beaten. So who comes out on top? The boys from Washington
Winner: Seahawks
NFC Sunday 2nd game: Packers at Redskins
The Packers of late have not been the Packers we've come to know and love (Or otherwise, depending on which team you favor). While the Redskins have emerged from the worst division of the NFC (When a team is 4-10 week 15 and still not mathematically eliminated from the post season [Dallas], there's a problem). The Redskins have the distinction of having lowest winning percentage of the teams against whom they won. Interestingly, they also lost teams with the second lowest winning percentage (The Panthers had the lowest winning percentage of teams they lost to [which was only one (Falcons)] at 50%). This means the Redskins had the easiest schedule out of all of the playoff teams and they still limped in. It feels odd going with all of the road teams but I can't find a good reason to pick the Redskins.
Winner: Packers
Divisional Round:
AFC Saturday 1st game Chiefs at Patriots
While I would much rather have seen the Bengals in this slot, we'll take the Chiefs. Hopefully, Edelman, Amendola, Gronk, and Brady will all be at 100%. If they are, then I have little concern that the Patriots will move on to the next round. If they are not all available to play, I still believe that the Patriots are matched up will against the Chiefs. People may point to the Patriots having gone 2-4 in their final 6 games but remember a few things: The Broncos game could have easily gone either way, the Eagles loss was a major special teams debacle and the Patriots still had a chance to win, and the losses to the Jets and Dolphins may have been intentional. The Patriots usually save a few special plays for the post season (See: Ravens controversy last year that we all forgot about because of "Framegate). The Chief's hopes for a championship end in Foxboro.
Winner: Patriots
NFC Saturday 2nd game Packers at Cardinals
The Packers aren't as fortunate this round having to travel to Arizona to face the Cardinals. The Cardinals have already disposed of the Packers once this season and it was the current team who doesn't look like the Green Bay of old (Or even week 5). Palmer will beat Rogers and give the Cards the win.
Winner: Cardinals
NFC Sunday 1st game Seahawks at Panthers
The Panthers looked like they were going to match the Patriots feat of 2007 of going the entire regular season without a loss. They still have a chance to match New England's 18-1 record if they can bring home the Lombardi Trophy. First they have to get past the Seahawks. The likelihood that the Panthers were going to go undefeated decreased greatly when their star running back Jonathan Stewart went down with an injury. Two games later they lost to the Falcons. The Panthers faced teams with the worst overall winning percentage but part of that is that they defeated 93.75% of those teams. However, those same teams didn't do a lot of winning apart from when they faced the Panthers either. It would be a great disappointment if the Panthers went out the first round. Rumor has it that Stewart will be back. The Panthers don't disappoint.
Winner: Panthers
AFC Sunday 2nd game Steelers at Broncos
This is a game I (wrongly) predicted last year. But this year I'm even more sure it will happen. The Steelers are one of the healthiest teams in the AFC and that goes a long way in the post season. The Broncos have to choose between an injured geriatric with a bum neck and an unproven QB who they pulled from the final game of the year when it really mattered. I believe they are going to go with Manning and he will be the Manning of late (which is the Manning we've come to expect in the playoffs). He will throw no fewer than 2 interceptions. He will get a hit that will give the Broncos and excuse to pull him in favor of Brock but it will be too late. Big Ben will march the Steelers to a Mile High victory ending Manning's final chance at equaling his younger (and far less talented) brother's Super Bowl victories.
Winner: Steelers
Championship Round:
AFC
Steelers at Patriots
This is the game I dreaded. Can the Patriots #DefendtheWall against the Steelers in Foxboro. The Patriots have defeated Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship game twice in the past, both times in Pittsburgh, and both times the Patriots went on to win the Super Bowl. Can the Steelers return the favor? Can Big Ben waltz into Foxoboro in late January, defeat the Patriots and then beat the NFC's Super Bowl Representative? I don't think so (that, and every time I've picked against the Patriots I've regretted it).
Winner: Patriots
NFC
Cardinals at Panthers
As informed as I try to be I haven't had much opportunity to see the Cardinals this year. Stats show that they are evenly balanced but can they stop the double pronged run and shoot offense of Stewart, Newton, and the Panthers? While Cam is certainly the shoe-in for NFL MVP this year, I'm not 100% sure that he can beat the Cardinals. If they did, I think they'd win the Super Bowl. I've even typed the Super Bowl match up of a Panthers v Patriots rematch but it didn't seem right. Despite my better judgment and what all the experts are saying, I'm going with Palmer and the Cardinals.
Winner: Cardinals
Super Bowl
Cardinals vs Patriots
This actually will be a better game than Panthers v Patriots. Cardinals v Patriots will have more fan-favorite passing and a advertising preferred high-scoring game. Like every other Patriots victory, this game will be decided by less than a Touchdown in the closing minutes of the game. Unlike other Patriots games, this game will have two teams pushing, if not breaking, the 40 point barrier. If you're a gambler - take the over (Not really because, as I've proved in the past, what do I know?!)
Winner: Patriots
There you have it. If you are a betting person, I recommend betting on what I predicted will NOT happen. If one were to do some reconnaissance on my previous NFL predictions during the preseason, I'm pretty sure we'd see that the Dallas v New England Super Bowl is one that is most commonly predicted. However, this year I believe it's a very high likelihood. Enjoy the games. What a great time of year!
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