It is hard to believe this is the tenth episode of "All Four Super Bowl Previews!" I suppose it's somehow fitting that my 10th is the NFL's 50th. (If you are interested in how I did with the previous nine predictions you can find the links to the previous editions at the end of the post.)
Perennially I update my prediction record. In reviewing my figures I located an error that I will correct from here forward. Scoring is as follows: 1 Point for correctly predicting the AFC winner, 1 point for the NFC winner, and 1 point for correctly predicting the winner of the contest of the actual Super Bowl teams. A potential of 3 points per year with one exception: For some inexplicable reason I intentionally made no prediction regarding which teams would go to the Super Bowl in 2010. However, I did (incorrectly) predict a winner of the actual game that occurred. That year shall count for 1 available point. So, up until my predictions for 2015, I was 12 for 22 (54.5%). Last year I correctly predicted that the Patriots would face the Seahawks in the Big Dance, however, I guess I thought the Seahawks would run the ball at the goal line and not toss Malcolm Butler the game winning interception. (An identical prediction to the one I made the year before when the Seahawks trounced the Broncos.) However, going 2 for 3 last year increases my record to 56%! Ok, on to the predictions for this year:
Interesting fact regarding this year's QBs: Three out of four of them are over 35! Newton is the baby of the bunch at 26.
Alright, here are this year's games from least compelling to most:
Patriots vs Cardinals
I feel the need to briefly define how I'm using the term "Compelling" in this ranking structure. I don't mean the quality of game that will be on display for the fans to watch. I mean the story - the selling factor that CBS can milk to try to entice the casual viewer to the couch for the game. That being said this game is the one that no one wants to see. Here's why: Nobody (outside of New England [and their fans]) wants to see Brady in another Super Bowl. His legacy is set, his HOF ticket is stamped, it's time to share with the other children. Everyone (outside of Arizona and the fans of the other NFC South Teams) wants to see Cam Newton on the Big Stage (and, no, I don't mean singing with Coldplay.) So if there's no Newton and there is Tom Terrific then few people will be happy. This is unfortunate as I believe this will be the best game to watch. The Cardinals and Patriots both have the best offense for their respective leagues and adequate defenses to make it difficult for the opponents offense to simply move the ball all over them. This is the game I expect to see and I believe that Belichick and Co will find a way to befuddle Palmer into making enough mistakes that the Patriots will be the first to repeat as Super Bowl champions since... oh yeah, The Patriots.
Winner: Patriots
Losers: Jim Nantz and Phil Simms as they have to say nice things about the Patriots (they will later gargle with antiseptic mouthwash).
Broncos vs Cardinals
It may be surprising to find this game listed second considering how much the average fan doesn't want to see Brady in the Super Bowl, so his absence might appear to be drawing factor. However, I believe that Newton's absence would cause more people to not watch than Brady's presence. In regards to the game, the Broncos have a decent defense but not enough to win a championship. Their offense isn't what it used to be either. This game won't feel like it's over because the Nantz and Simms will continually fawn over Manning and herald him as the football Messiah (never once mentioning the HGH scandal that is currently surrounding him) but he will be unable to overcome the Cardinals. Peyton will fall to 1-3 for his Super Bowl appearances.
Winner: Cardinals
Loser: Manning's HGH provider as demand plummets.
Patriots vs Panthers
While CBS will get some play out of the "rematch of Super Bowl XXXVIII" angle (Cam Newton was a freshman in high school when that game was played), the major story-line here is that the Panthers are seeking to mirror the Patriots feat of finishing a season 18-1. The only difference is, when the Patriots finished 18-1 they were 18-0 headed into the final game of the year. The Panthers had an opportunity match the Patriots undefeated 16 game regular season but fell to the Falcons week 15. Now, had they managed to overcome their divisional rival CBS would be selling their souls for this match-up. Imagine the hype: "The Panthers are on a mission to be the first undefeated team in the 16 game era. The only obstacle still in their way? The last team to attempt the seemingly impossible feat. The Patriots hope to add another team with an 18-1 record to the annals of NFL History." Instead, it's the Panthers hoping for a better 18-1 record, where they hoist the Lombardi trophy at the end and the Patriots hoping to send "SuperCam" Newton home with 17-2 record for the year. If this is the game that we see, my emotions say that the Panthers will win, but my head says the Patriots. I don't expect the Patriots to spot the Panthers 31 points like the Seahawks did last week and if the Panthers D couldn't stop the Seahawks from coming within a TD of victory, they won't be able to stop Tom, Edelman, Gronk, and Amendola.
Winner: Patriots
Loser: Roger Goodell
Broncos vs Panthers
This is the game that everyone without a dog in the fight wants to see. They want Peyton to have his swan song and go out on top like the last great Broncos QB, John Elway, did. Not only that, but they want it to be against a rising star QB Cam Newton. A passing of the torch, if you will. They picture Newton congratulating Peyton at the 50 just after Manning has announced that now that he's won the Super Bowl he's going to fly the Millennium Falcon to Disney World (Because they can't cross reference that enough!) Both QBs smiling from ear to ear as Manning says, "You'll get yours next year kid" and, in oblivious to the irony, hands Cam the game ball. Too bad that isn't what is going to happen. This game will be over by the middle of the 3rd. The Panthers won't fall for Manning's new patented "Look at me guys, I'm giving myself up!" play. Manning will be benched after he throws his 3rd INT (2nd Pick-six [4th turnover including an earlier strip sack]). Brock comes in the game but it's too little, too late as the Panthers role over the Broncos by 3 scores. The Panthers will finish the season 18-1, but this time with a championship.
Winner: Panthers
Losers: Everyone tired of hearing about the 1972 Dolphins
Those are my thoughts, what are yours?
Here are the links to my previous predictions, analysis, winners, and losers:
2007, Colts over Bears;
Game Predicted: Saints over Colts.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Colts;
2008, Giants over Patriots;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Giants vs the Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots;
2009, Steelers over Cardinals;
Game Predicted: Steelers over Eagles.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Steelers;
2010, Saints over Colts;
Game Predicted: Purposeful lack of prediction.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Colts;
2011, Packers over Steelers;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Packers and Steelers
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Steelers;
2012, Giants over Patriots;
Game Predicted: Giants over Ravens.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots
2013, Ravens over 49ers;
Game Predicted: 49ers over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: 49ers
2014, Seahawks over Broncos;
Game Predicted: Seahawks over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Seahawks
2015, Patriots over Seahawks;
Game Predicted: Seahawks over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Seahawks
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