Episode 11 of my favorite post of the year! Championship Sunday is my favorite football weekend so it makes sense that the post that ruminates about it would be as well! (If you'd like to see how I've fared with my predictions over the past ten years, you'll find them listed at the bottom of this post along with links if you're interested in my previous analysis.)
My accuracy rating took a major hit last year as managed to go 0 for 3: I predicted both Championship games incorrectly and got the winner of the actual Super Bowl game wrong too. I fell from 56% all the way down to 50%! Ouch! Hopefully, I'll rebound this year! On to the predictions:
I want to start by saying that these two games are incredibly difficult to predict. I'm vacillating greatly on who I'm going to choose. Also, this may be the single greatest grouping of QBs in the Championship games ever!
Alright, here are this year's games from least compelling* to most: *("Compelling" refers to how interested an average viewer might be and which game the networks are hoping for)
Steelers vs Falcons
When the potential QBs who could play in the Big Game are made up of Brady, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, and Ryan, deservedly or not, Ryan is going to get the least celebration. While the Falcons have had an amazing offense this year they've flown under the radar having been overshadowed by the Cowboys & Packers in their own Conference. The Steelers have had a rocky season, losing to the Cowboys and the Dolphins while nearly giving the Browns their second win of the year. The Steelers are the worst team still in the playoffs. This game pits the worst offense still in the running against the worst defense still in the running. The opposite is not true, while the Falcons have the best offense in the playoffs, the Steelers D isn't strong enough to stop them.
Winner: Falcons
Losers: All of the companies who saved some money by having their ads air after half time
Patriots vs Falcons
Between people not understanding the historical significance of Brady playing in his 7th Super Bowl and not recognizing just how good Ryan is this game won't have much viewership. Even though it won't garner the same level of interest as the next two games This is the game we will have the pleasure of seeing. This match-up ranks higher than Pittsburgh v Atlanta because this game pits the top two offenses against each other. The same can't be said about their defenses. The Patriots defense has been fantastic this year while the Falcons have struggled. Atlanta has needed their over-powering offense to win having given up at least 4 touchdowns 9 times this year! You can't allow Brady to score 28 points and think you are going to win. I'd say you can't give Rodgers that many points and think you'll win either, except that they did defeating Green Bay by 1 point during the regular season. That doesn't happen twice. We won't see this game but if we did, Atlanta's D can't stop Brady enough times to win.
Winner: Patriots
Loser: Roger Goodell
Steelers vs Packers
FOX is chomping at the bit in the hopes that they might have two weeks to promote Big Ben vs Discount Double Check Rodgers. Beyond the story of the QBs there's also the "rematch" angle of Super Bowl XLV (45) where Rodgers and the Packers edged out Ben and the Steelers by 6 points. Ben wants revenge, Rodgers wants his second ring. Two storied franchises with stalwart fan bases facing off for the Lombardi Trophy. These two teams are also somewhat evenly matched. Both have middle of the road defenses and somewhat above average offenses. The Steelers D is better than the Packers, while the Packers offense is better than the Steelers. This game could be a nail-biter where Rodgers needs to lead a late drive to retake the lead before Big Ben tosses a game ending INT attempting his own miracle come-back.
Winner: Packers
Loser: Fans of the other teams in the NFC or AFC North. These fans can be unbearable as it is even without a Championship
Patriots vs Packers
This game has the best story-line: The King of the NFL seeking to secure his legacy against the heir-apparent looking to dethrone the reining regent. This is also a rematch: Super Bowl XXXI (31) in 1997 when Favre out gunned Bledsoe 35-21. While not the same major players, and therefore not quite as compelling as Steelers v Packers but who can pass up on a Brady v Rodgers match-up? They've only met one time in the past and this may be their only opportunity as they aren't scheduled to meet in the regular season until 2019 (Brady would be 42 and may be retired by then). So what will happen? Will Brady defeat the next QB destined to be in the "best ever" conversation? Yes, and he will set himself apart as the GOAT once and for all. Here's why: "Do your job." This is the mantra of the Patriots. Rodgers strangely, has a better passer rating when he is outside of the pocket. This means that the play has broken down and it's a scramble drill. The Patriots outside defensive linemen will contain Rodgers not allowing him to escape to where he is the most effective. Brady will be able to dissect the Packer's mediocre defense for his 5th (and possibly not last) Super Bowl ring.
Winner: Patriots
Losers: Joe Montana
Those are my thoughts, what are yours?
Here are the links to my previous predictions, analysis, winners, and losers:
2007, Colts over Bears;
Game Predicted: Saints over Colts.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Colts;
2008, Giants over Patriots;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Giants vs the Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots;
2009, Steelers over Cardinals;
Game Predicted: Steelers over Eagles.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Steelers;
2010, Saints over Colts;
Game Predicted: Purposeful lack of prediction.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Colts;
2011, Packers over Steelers;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Packers and Steelers
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Steelers;
2012, Giants over Patriots;
Game Predicted: Giants over Ravens.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots
2013, Ravens over 49ers;
Game Predicted: 49ers over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: 49ers
2014, Seahawks over Broncos;
Game Predicted: Seahawks over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Seahawks
2015, Patriots over Seahawks;
Game Predicted: Seahawks over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Seahawks
2016, Broncos over Panthers;
Game Predicted: Patriots over Cardinals.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Panthers
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