Anyone who knows me knows that the NFL Playoff season is my favorite time of the year! It's like Christmas every weekend! (If you'd like to see how I've fared with my predictions over the past eleven years, you'll find them listed at the bottom of this post along with links if you're interested in my previous analysis.)
Two years ago I went 0 for 3. I rebounded nicely last year by correctly predicting the Super Bowl match-up and the eventual winner! Of course, I never could have predicted the manner in which the Patriots would win but it sure was thrilling! Down 25 points with just over 17 minutes left in the game the Patriots forced and won in overtime! Coming into last year I was at a mediocre 50%. Going 3 for 3 last year has elevated me to 56%! On to the predictions:
While last year's Championship Sunday included QBs the likes of Brady, Reothlisberger, Rogers, & Ryan; this year's match-ups pits three QBs who have a combined 5 playoff starts (Bortles, Foles, & Keenum) and one with 5 Super Bowl Wins!
Alright, here are this year's games from least compelling* to most: *("Compelling" refers to how interested an average viewer might be and which game the networks are hoping for)
Jaguars vs Eagles
There is very little to be excited about this game. While this game contains two teams that have never hoisted the Lombardi Trophy, it doesn't have the same emotional draw as Jax vs Minn because he Eagles have had success without the gut-wrenching close calls that the Vikings have had. Additionally, this game promises to be merely average. The QB for the Eagles, Nick Foles, would be starting his 6th game of the season having taken over for Carson Wentz late in the game week 14. The Jaguar's QB, Blake Bortles, started the season ranked 21st among QBs just ahead of the likes of Jay Cutler. The Eagles are here due to the work of Wentz and the offense during the regular season and the Jaguars are here because of their defense. In order for Bortles and the Jaguars to have an opportunity to face the Eagles they had to overcome the Bills, Steelers, and Patriots - all of which were upsets. If the Jaguars can manage to get by TB12, Big Ben, and the Bills it'd be difficult to pick against them versus a team dealing with a back up QB and other major injuries.
Winner: Jaguars
Losers: Fantasy Football fanatics
Patriots vs Eagles
A rematch of Super Bowl XXXIX is a decent selling point. Of course, there's only one player & one coach who also participated in Super Bowl XXXIX. Another compelling aspect of this game is that those "in the know" have been asking "Who will win the Super Bowl, the Eagles or the Patriots?" since week 4. However, this is not the match up that we were hoping for. The Patriots are on the rise while the Eagles are on the decline. Foles has done a good job of getting his team this far following Wentz's injury however, they've not been playing at the same level late in the season. While the Patriots (apart from the shocking loss to Miami) have been playing some of their best football of the year having surrendered 17 pts or fewer 9 out of their last 12 games! If this is the contest, even with the mysterious injury to TB12's throwing hand, expect Brady, red gloves and all, to win his unprecedented 6th Super Bowl.
Winner: Patriots
Loser: Roger Goodell & Patriot haters everywhere
Jaguars vs Vikings
NBC would be thrilled to work the "Give someone else a chance" angle of this match-up. The Jaguars have never been to the big dance, and, while the Vikings have competed for four NFL Championships, they've lost all four; the most recent one being 41 years ago in Super Bowl XI! However, unless the public enjoys a low-scoring defensive battle (which they typically don't) that's where the compelling aspect of this game ends. This would likely be the lowest scoring Super Bowl ever (beating out Super Bowl VII where the Dolphins defeated the Redskins by a score of 21-7). The Vikings sometimes struggle to move the ball but have the number one defense in the league giving up the fewest points and second most total yards all season. The Jaguars rank 1st in offensive rushing yards but 17th in passing yards. They surrendered the fewest total yards per game and second fewest points. This game would be two powerhouse defenses vs two struggling offenses. The final score might be 9-6.
Winner: Vikings
Loser: Fans that like games that score over 17 total points
Patriots vs Vikings
I believe this will be the most compelling game. I also believe this is the game we will see. Oddly enough, with the remaining quarterbacks in the playoffs, Brady vs Keenum will provide the best game for the average viewer. The NFC Championship game should be dubbed "The Battle of the Back-ups!" Keenum has played the entire season but that's because the Vikings starting QB, Sam Bradford (remember him?), injured his knee in the preseason. Additional eyeballs will be drawn into this match-up due to the story line behind the possibility of a Viking win over the Patriots. With the heartbreaking losses the Vikings have suffered in the playoffs combined with their unlikely victory vs the Saints juxtaposed with the unrivaled success of the Patriots will have viewers salivating at the chance to see if the up-and-coming Vikings can win their first Super Bowl over the vaunted perennial favorites. This would be a close game coming down to one score at the end of the game. The biggest difference may be that the Patriots players would be coached well enough to know to let a WR catch and tackle him inbounds the ball with 10 seconds left in the game rather than hurling themselves at him allowing him to score the winning TD. Unfortunately, in this contest, the majority of viewers will be disappointed because experience will win out.
Winner: Patriots
Losers: The fans of the other 31 teams in the league
Those are my thoughts, what are yours?
Here are the links to my previous predictions, analysis, winners, and losers (In the past they've been oldest to newest, but any readers that I may still have will likely be more interested in my more recent predictions so I will reverse the order):
2017, Patriots over Falcons;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Patriots over Falcons.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots
2016, Broncos over Panthers;
Game Predicted: Patriots over Cardinals.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Panthers
2015, Patriots over Seahawks;
Game Predicted: Seahawks over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Seahawks
2014, Seahawks over Broncos;
Game Predicted: Seahawks over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Seahawks
2013, Ravens over 49ers;
Game Predicted: 49ers over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: 49ers
2012, Giants over Patriots;
Game Predicted: Giants over Ravens.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots
2011, Packers over Steelers;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Packers and Steelers
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Steelers;
2010, Saints over Colts;
Game Predicted: Purposeful lack of prediction.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Colts;
2009, Steelers over Cardinals;
Game Predicted: Steelers over Eagles.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Steelers;
2008, Giants over Patriots;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Giants vs the Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots;
2007, Colts over Bears;
Game Predicted: Saints over Colts.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Colts;
