Anyone who knows me knows that the NFL Playoff season is my favorite time of the year! It's like Christmas every weekend! (If you'd like to see how I've fared with my predictions over the past eleven years, you'll find them listed at the bottom of this post along with links if you're interested in my previous analysis.)
If you'd like to see how I've done year over year, you will find my historic results here: All Four Super Bowl Preview Annual Results
Alright, here are this year's games from least compelling* to most: *("Compelling" refers to how interested an average viewer might be and which game the networks are hoping for)
Chiefs vs Rams
While the analysts might enjoy examining a 2016 draft pick (Goff) vs a 2017 draft pick (Mahomes), seeing two practically rookie QBs facing off in the big game isn't as exciting as it may seem. It also will be less-than-compelling to see the Patriot-haters continue to salivate over the "next Brady/Manning" in Patrick Mahomes. One NFL "analyst" in reviewing the Patriots/Chiefs game gave the QB edge to Mahomes! Not the offensive edge (which, while a stretch, could be understandable). No, no, the QB edge! That somehow the sophomore "no-look-passer-in-his-first-post-season" had the edge on the "I-have-more-playoff-wins-than-you-have-career-starts-(or-years-of-age-for-that-matter)" 5-time-Super-Bowl-MVP veteran! Anyway. This game would feature explosive offenses with zero defense. Take the over on this game and expect on of the highest scoring Super Bowls in history. KC ranks 31st in passing D (probably because they got out to early leads so teams had to pass against them) but 27th in run defense (which is atrocious when you hold the lead for most of the game). The Rams aren't much better ranking 14th and 23rd respectively but it should be enough to stop Mahomes in his bid for his first ring.
Winner: Rams
Losers: The score board operators! (Good thing they aren't manual anymore!)
Patriots vs Rams
Let's be honest, most Americans don't want to see Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the Patriots in yet another Super Bowl. But if they DO have to watch it they'd rather see Brady face off against Brees than Goff. Not only because in an effort to de-throne Brady people are looking to garbage-time-stat-monster Brees. The Rams of this year look a lot like the Eagles of last year: An up-and-coming QB with a good run game and solid receivers. That may sound like it spells doom for TB12 and his crew as they were unable to overcome the Eagles last year. However, there is a very believable reason as to why the Patriots lost that game (A short version of the theory can be found here: Did Belichick Throw The Super Bowl?) Will this happen again? We at JMO don't think so. This game might be close at the half, but expect the Patriots to pull away late in the game.
Winner: Patriots
Loser: Robert Kraft as Belichick will have proven he's necessary for the Patriot's Super Bowl wins
Patriots vs Saints
This game should be viewed as the most compelling as it pits two perennial all star quarterbacks against each other as well as the Offensive minded Sean Payton against the Defensive minded Bill Belichick. And if there was ever a claim to be made about which team cheated more this is the match-up for that debate (See: Bounty-gate v Deflate-gate)! The Patriots are the best team remaining regarding passing defense, while the Saints are the best remaining team regarding rushing defense. Those represent the strengths of each team's opponent as the Patriots failed to win when they didn't have 100 yards rushing and the Saints lost when their passing game was off-kilter. So who wins this game? (Which is the game we will have the pleasure of seeing)?
Winner: Saints
Losers: Anyone near a Saints fan announcing that Brees is the only QB to defeat Brady and Manning in the Super Bowl
Chiefs vs Saints
This is the game that the networks want! Mahomes has been every non-New England football analysts sweetheart since week 2. They are hoping so strongly that he can unseat Brady in the AFC Championship game and then beat Brees in the Super Bowl and be the young, fresh face of the NFL. Not since Andrew Luck and Cam Newton has there been such fanfare over the "next great QB!" This game is what the NFL wants as well because the Chiefs and Saints are 3rd and 12th in passing offense (respectively) while also being 32nd and 31st in passing defense (also, respectively)! Maybe the coaches can have an agreement where they each get an offensive series while the opponent's defense stays on the bench. The fans watching at home won't really be able to tell the difference. Taking into account the fact that some defense wins championships combined with the inexperience of the Chiefs this game will go to Drew Brees and the Saints.
Winner: Saints
Loser: The Las Vegas Over/Under Bookies
Those are my thoughts, what are yours?
Saturday, January 19, 2019
Continuing Collection of "All Four Super Bowl Previews" Results
My "All Four Super Bowl Previews" were getting a bit long-winded with the inclusion of the links to all of my previous annual predictions. Accordingly, I've decided to consolidate all of my results in one post that I will update and link to each year. Here is my current score: Last year I went 2 out of 3 bringing my total tally to 26 for 46, for a score of 56.5%.
Here are the links to my previous predictions, analysis, winners, and losers (from most recent to my first post in 2007):
2023, Eagles vs Chiefs;
Game Predicted: 49ers over Chiefs
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Chiefs
Score/Rolling Percentage: x for x; xx.x% (24+x for 43+3)
2022, Rams over Bengals;
Game Predicted: Chiefs over Rams
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Rams
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 56.5% (26 for 46)
2021, Bucaneers over Chiefs;
Game Predicted: Bucaneers over Chiefs
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Bucaneers
Score/Rolling Percentage: 3 for 3; 55.8% (24 for 43)
2020, Chiefs over 49ers;
Game Predicted: 49ers over Titans
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: 49ers
Score/Rolling Percentage: 1 for 3; 52.5% (21 for 40)
2019, Patriots over Rams;
Game Predicted: Saints over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 54% (20 for 37)
2018, Eagles over Patriots;
Game Predicted: Patriots over Vikings.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots
Score/Rolling Percentage: 1 for 3; 53% (18 for 34)
2017, Patriots over Falcons;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Patriots over Falcons.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots
Score/Rolling Percentage: 3 for 3; 55% (17 for 31)
2016, Broncos over Panthers;
Game Predicted: Patriots over Cardinals.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Panthers
Score/Rolling Percentage: 0 for 3; 50% (14 for 28)
2015, Patriots over Seahawks;
Game Predicted: Seahawks over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Seahawks
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 56% (14 for 25)
2014, Seahawks over Broncos;
Game Predicted: Seahawks over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Seahawks
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 55% (12 for 22)
2013, Ravens over 49ers;
Game Predicted: 49ers over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: 49ers
Score/Rolling Percentage: 1 for 3; 53% (10 for 19)
2012, Giants over Patriots;
Game Predicted: Giants over Ravens.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots
Score/Rolling Percentage: 1 for 3; 56% (9 for 16)
2011, Packers over Steelers;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Packers and Steelers
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Steelers
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 62% (8 for 13)
2010, Saints over Colts;
Game Predicted: Purposeful lack of prediction.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Colts
Score/Rolling Percentage: 0 for 1; 60% (6 for 10)
2009, Steelers over Cardinals;
Game Predicted: Steelers over Eagles.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Steelers
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 67% (6 for 9)
2008, Giants over Patriots;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Giants vs the Patriots
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 67% (4 for 6)
2007, Colts over Bears;
Game Predicted: Saints over Colts.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Colts
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 67% (2 for 3)
Here are the links to my previous predictions, analysis, winners, and losers (from most recent to my first post in 2007):
2023, Eagles vs Chiefs;
Game Predicted: 49ers over Chiefs
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Chiefs
Score/Rolling Percentage: x for x; xx.x% (24+x for 43+3)
2022, Rams over Bengals;
Game Predicted: Chiefs over Rams
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Rams
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 56.5% (26 for 46)
2021, Bucaneers over Chiefs;
Game Predicted: Bucaneers over Chiefs
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Bucaneers
Score/Rolling Percentage: 3 for 3; 55.8% (24 for 43)
2020, Chiefs over 49ers;
Game Predicted: 49ers over Titans
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: 49ers
Score/Rolling Percentage: 1 for 3; 52.5% (21 for 40)
2019, Patriots over Rams;
Game Predicted: Saints over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 54% (20 for 37)
2018, Eagles over Patriots;
Game Predicted: Patriots over Vikings.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots
Score/Rolling Percentage: 1 for 3; 53% (18 for 34)
2017, Patriots over Falcons;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Patriots over Falcons.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots
Score/Rolling Percentage: 3 for 3; 55% (17 for 31)
2016, Broncos over Panthers;
Game Predicted: Patriots over Cardinals.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Panthers
Score/Rolling Percentage: 0 for 3; 50% (14 for 28)
2015, Patriots over Seahawks;
Game Predicted: Seahawks over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Seahawks
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 56% (14 for 25)
2014, Seahawks over Broncos;
Game Predicted: Seahawks over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Seahawks
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 55% (12 for 22)
2013, Ravens over 49ers;
Game Predicted: 49ers over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: 49ers
Score/Rolling Percentage: 1 for 3; 53% (10 for 19)
2012, Giants over Patriots;
Game Predicted: Giants over Ravens.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots
Score/Rolling Percentage: 1 for 3; 56% (9 for 16)
2011, Packers over Steelers;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Packers and Steelers
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Steelers
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 62% (8 for 13)
2010, Saints over Colts;
Game Predicted: Purposeful lack of prediction.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Colts
Score/Rolling Percentage: 0 for 1; 60% (6 for 10)
2009, Steelers over Cardinals;
Game Predicted: Steelers over Eagles.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Steelers
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 67% (6 for 9)
2008, Giants over Patriots;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Giants vs the Patriots
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 67% (4 for 6)
2007, Colts over Bears;
Game Predicted: Saints over Colts.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Colts
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 67% (2 for 3)
Sunday, January 06, 2019
2018-2019 NFL Playoff Preview
It's been a few years since I've attempted to predict the outcome of the playoffs prior to the kick-off of the first game (at least here). And it's not as though anyone still follows this blog. This is the dark corner of the internet where no one every goes. Accordingly, as this will simply be a repository of where I record my incorrect playoff predictions for myself so I will abridge the intro. On to the games:
Wild Card Round
AFC Saturday 1st game: Colts at Texans
Tough game to call. These teams faced each other twice in the regular season with both teams going 1-1. There was a whopping six point TOTAL point difference for both games, with the first going into overtime. Interestingly, it was the away team that won both games. Does that guarantee the Colts the win? No, but it's enough to bet on.
Winner: Colts
NFC Saturday 2nd game: Seahawks at Cowboys
The Seahawks faced off against the Cowboys once in the regular season in Seattle and the Seahawks took the win. The Seahawks beat 2 out of 3 playoff bound opponents at home but did not defeat a single playoff team on the road. Whereas the Cowboys defeated both playoff bound teams that dared enter Cowboy's Stadium. I don't think that the Cowboys will have too much difficulty disposing of Seattle.
Winner: Cowboys
AFC Sunday 1st game: Chargers at Ravens
I'd love to see the Texans win so the Patriots don't have to face either of these teams. That's highly unlikely, however. The Chargers and Ravens faced off in Baltimore week 16 with the Ravens handing the Chargers their only road loss of the year! That says something pretty amazing about both teams. So who walks away with the win this week? Not only did the Ravens have the easiest road to the post-season facing only 3 other playoff teams but I think the experienced leadership of the Chargers overcomes the Raven's novice QB. Chargers squeak by in a shootout.
Winner: Chargers
NFC Sunday 2nd game: Eagles at Bears
Not much to say here except that the Eagles have struggled all year! With QB issues and a defense that has struggled the Bears should coast into the next round behind their stifling Defense and up-and-comer Trubiski.
Winner: Bears
Divisional Round:
AFC Saturday 1st game: Colts at Chiefs
The Colts have been the hottest team in the NFL down the stretch. They started the season 1-5 and finished it 9-1 with their last loss coming week 13 on the road to the Jaguars. The Chiefs have played 6 games against playoff bound teams but only managed to win 2 of them: At the Chargers week 1 (losing at home to them week 11) and beating the Ravens at home week 14 (but only by 3 points). I expect Luck and the Colts to make a game of it, perhaps with a late push to nearly win the game; but don't expect 4th quarter heroics like we saw that last time these two teams met in the post season. The Chiefs Offense will be able to out-gun the Colts.
Winner: Chiefs
NFC Saturday 2nd game: Bears at Rams
A rematch of week 14 but switching stadiums. You heard it hear first: The Rams are the most overrated team in the NFL this year. The Rams faced-off against 6 teams in the playoffs losing both on the road and only taking 3 of 4 at home (Dropping one to the early-exit Eagles week 15). The secret to stopping the Rams is stopping Todd Gurley, a "secret" the Bears already proved they were more than capable of accomplishing. Expect another low-scoring, field position duel in which Chicago wins a ticket to the NFC Championship game for the first time since 2011.
Winner: Bears
AFC Sunday 1st game: Chargers at Patriots
Two teams known more for their offense this year than their defense. Two teams that both beat the Chiefs (Chargers 29-28 in KC with a last second 2 point conversion, Patriots 43-40 in Foxboro after leading 24-9 at the half.) The Charger's offense brought them the win, the Patriot's defense held on to their victory. Even though the Chargers only dropped 1 game on the road this year, the Patriots were perfect at home, and, as they say, "Defense wins championships." Edge goes to...
Winner: Patriots
NFC Sunday 2nd game: Cowboys at Saints
This appears to be the easiest game to predict out of the Divisional round. The Cowboys dropped 3 out of 4 games against play-off bound opponents on the road. Of course, their only win against a playoff team on the road was a 13-10 win over, you guessed it, the Saints! However, if any team in the NFC needs home field advantage, it's the 'Boys. It's tough to beat the same team twice on their own field. I don't expect this game to be close beyond the first quarter.
Winner: Saints
Championship Round:
NFC
Bears at Saints
This game may be the best game of the playoffs, including the Super Bowl. The Saint's vaunted offense facing off against the Bear's stifling defense! When dealing with a strength vs strength we have to look at weakness vs weakness. The Saint's defense has been inconsistent at best. The same could be said for the Bear's offense however, the likelihood that Trubisky will have a short field is better due to the Bears +9 takeaway stat over the Saints. This will be a close one and points off of turnovers will be huge.
Winner: Bears
AFC
Patriots at Chiefs
There are two x-factors in this game and they aren't necessarily whom you expect. Mahomes has been playing amazingly, setting or tying records all season. Brady ISN'T the other x-factor, however. It's Belichick. Jedi Master (or Sith Lord depending on how you feel about the Patriots) Belichick has an entire season of film on Mahomes at this point. Plus their victory over them week 6 and an additional playoff game. Bill has the intelligent players necessary to sufficiently confuse Mahomes presnap and the Chiefs defense won't be able to stop Brady & co. The only team that can prevent the Patriots from moving on in this game is the Patriots.
Winner: Patriots
Super Bowl
Bears vs Patriots
1985 revisited! But this time it'll be far more competitive. Similarly to when the Bears took on the Colts in 2006 it will be the Bear's defense that has gotten them to the big dance. The biggest difference is, this time the Bears aren't lead by Rex Grossman, but rather the exciting Mitchel Trubisky! The Patriots won't have faced many notable defenses getting to this point in the playoffs. The Bears will have faced some even more potent offenses than the Patriots. The result? Brady joins the ranks of Jim Kelly with four Super Bowl losses and the Patriots attain sole possession of most Super Bowl losses by a team with 6. That's right, I'm predicting the Bears hoist the Lombardi trophy for the first time in 33 years!
Winner: Bears
This year should be a GREAT set of playoff games with an exciting Super Bowl. I hope I'm wrong on the final outcome but I call it like I see it.
Wild Card Round
AFC Saturday 1st game: Colts at Texans
Tough game to call. These teams faced each other twice in the regular season with both teams going 1-1. There was a whopping six point TOTAL point difference for both games, with the first going into overtime. Interestingly, it was the away team that won both games. Does that guarantee the Colts the win? No, but it's enough to bet on.
Winner: Colts
NFC Saturday 2nd game: Seahawks at Cowboys
The Seahawks faced off against the Cowboys once in the regular season in Seattle and the Seahawks took the win. The Seahawks beat 2 out of 3 playoff bound opponents at home but did not defeat a single playoff team on the road. Whereas the Cowboys defeated both playoff bound teams that dared enter Cowboy's Stadium. I don't think that the Cowboys will have too much difficulty disposing of Seattle.
Winner: Cowboys
AFC Sunday 1st game: Chargers at Ravens
I'd love to see the Texans win so the Patriots don't have to face either of these teams. That's highly unlikely, however. The Chargers and Ravens faced off in Baltimore week 16 with the Ravens handing the Chargers their only road loss of the year! That says something pretty amazing about both teams. So who walks away with the win this week? Not only did the Ravens have the easiest road to the post-season facing only 3 other playoff teams but I think the experienced leadership of the Chargers overcomes the Raven's novice QB. Chargers squeak by in a shootout.
Winner: Chargers
NFC Sunday 2nd game: Eagles at Bears
Not much to say here except that the Eagles have struggled all year! With QB issues and a defense that has struggled the Bears should coast into the next round behind their stifling Defense and up-and-comer Trubiski.
Winner: Bears
Divisional Round:
AFC Saturday 1st game: Colts at Chiefs
The Colts have been the hottest team in the NFL down the stretch. They started the season 1-5 and finished it 9-1 with their last loss coming week 13 on the road to the Jaguars. The Chiefs have played 6 games against playoff bound teams but only managed to win 2 of them: At the Chargers week 1 (losing at home to them week 11) and beating the Ravens at home week 14 (but only by 3 points). I expect Luck and the Colts to make a game of it, perhaps with a late push to nearly win the game; but don't expect 4th quarter heroics like we saw that last time these two teams met in the post season. The Chiefs Offense will be able to out-gun the Colts.
Winner: Chiefs
NFC Saturday 2nd game: Bears at Rams
A rematch of week 14 but switching stadiums. You heard it hear first: The Rams are the most overrated team in the NFL this year. The Rams faced-off against 6 teams in the playoffs losing both on the road and only taking 3 of 4 at home (Dropping one to the early-exit Eagles week 15). The secret to stopping the Rams is stopping Todd Gurley, a "secret" the Bears already proved they were more than capable of accomplishing. Expect another low-scoring, field position duel in which Chicago wins a ticket to the NFC Championship game for the first time since 2011.
Winner: Bears
AFC Sunday 1st game: Chargers at Patriots
Two teams known more for their offense this year than their defense. Two teams that both beat the Chiefs (Chargers 29-28 in KC with a last second 2 point conversion, Patriots 43-40 in Foxboro after leading 24-9 at the half.) The Charger's offense brought them the win, the Patriot's defense held on to their victory. Even though the Chargers only dropped 1 game on the road this year, the Patriots were perfect at home, and, as they say, "Defense wins championships." Edge goes to...
Winner: Patriots
NFC Sunday 2nd game: Cowboys at Saints
This appears to be the easiest game to predict out of the Divisional round. The Cowboys dropped 3 out of 4 games against play-off bound opponents on the road. Of course, their only win against a playoff team on the road was a 13-10 win over, you guessed it, the Saints! However, if any team in the NFC needs home field advantage, it's the 'Boys. It's tough to beat the same team twice on their own field. I don't expect this game to be close beyond the first quarter.
Winner: Saints
Championship Round:
NFC
Bears at Saints
This game may be the best game of the playoffs, including the Super Bowl. The Saint's vaunted offense facing off against the Bear's stifling defense! When dealing with a strength vs strength we have to look at weakness vs weakness. The Saint's defense has been inconsistent at best. The same could be said for the Bear's offense however, the likelihood that Trubisky will have a short field is better due to the Bears +9 takeaway stat over the Saints. This will be a close one and points off of turnovers will be huge.
Winner: Bears
AFC
Patriots at Chiefs
There are two x-factors in this game and they aren't necessarily whom you expect. Mahomes has been playing amazingly, setting or tying records all season. Brady ISN'T the other x-factor, however. It's Belichick. Jedi Master (or Sith Lord depending on how you feel about the Patriots) Belichick has an entire season of film on Mahomes at this point. Plus their victory over them week 6 and an additional playoff game. Bill has the intelligent players necessary to sufficiently confuse Mahomes presnap and the Chiefs defense won't be able to stop Brady & co. The only team that can prevent the Patriots from moving on in this game is the Patriots.
Winner: Patriots
Super Bowl
Bears vs Patriots
1985 revisited! But this time it'll be far more competitive. Similarly to when the Bears took on the Colts in 2006 it will be the Bear's defense that has gotten them to the big dance. The biggest difference is, this time the Bears aren't lead by Rex Grossman, but rather the exciting Mitchel Trubisky! The Patriots won't have faced many notable defenses getting to this point in the playoffs. The Bears will have faced some even more potent offenses than the Patriots. The result? Brady joins the ranks of Jim Kelly with four Super Bowl losses and the Patriots attain sole possession of most Super Bowl losses by a team with 6. That's right, I'm predicting the Bears hoist the Lombardi trophy for the first time in 33 years!
Winner: Bears
This year should be a GREAT set of playoff games with an exciting Super Bowl. I hope I'm wrong on the final outcome but I call it like I see it.
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