Not that anyone reads this anymore. We've had two Super Bowls since I last posted. I will document my thoughts for each so we have a running account and then I will break down all four of this year's possible Super Bowls:
For the 2024 Super Bowl I would have predicted Chiefs vs 49ers having little faith in the Lions to defeat the 49ers and the NFL couldn't let it's golden boy lose. And I would have predicted (and been disappointed to see) a Chiefs victory.
For the 2025 Super Bowl I would have hoped that the NFL would have let the better team win and given Josh Allen a chance at a ring vs the Eagles. And for the winner of the game we saw I would have predicted the Eagles.
Now on to this year's preview!
It is hard to believe that this is the twentieth anniversary of this perennial post! If you would like to see how I've done in the past predicting the Super Bowl match up along with predicting the winner of the game we actually watch you can find a record of all of the Super Bowl predictions I've done on here going all the way back to 2007: All Four Super Bowl Previews Results.
Without further ado, let's dive in! Here is a breakdown of each possible Super Bowl from least to most compelling & a prediction of the winner of each matchup.
Seahawks vs Broncos
While the NFL loves a Super Bowl rematch it's difficult to get excited about a back-up quarterback facing the defense that has allowed the fewest points in the league this year! Combine that with the fact that Seattle has the 3rd best rushing defense and the path to victory for the Broncos will be entirely on the shoulders of Jarrett Stidham. Chances are good hadn't heard of him until the AFC Championship game. Stidham has backed-up such greats as Tom Brady, Derek Carr, and Bo Nix. You read that right, he wasn't even good enough to compete for the starting position against Derek Carr. If the Broncos make it, expect viewership to be very very low!
Winner: Seahawks
Loser: The companies who paid millions of dollars to have their ads on the big game
Rams vs Broncos
Again, back-up QB vs potential MVP candidate. Many pundits are trying to liken Stidham's chances to those of Nick Foles when he backed up Carson Wentz for the Eagles. Couple of differences: Foles started the last 3 games of the season and had some decent success as a starter prior to that. Stidham has no such advantage. The Broncos have a decent defense so this year and Matt Stafford (or as my friend refers to him "Stat Padford") isn't as good as his numbers make him appear. While Broncos aren't good enough to win this game will be closer than some might expect.
Winner: Rams
Loser: Drake "Drake Maye" Maye as Stafford is handed an undeserved MVP award
Patriots vs Seahawks
Now we are starting to get into the interesting games! Both of the Patriots potential match-ups are Super Bowl rematches. I guess that's what happens when your team has been to the Super Bowl 11 times. This year makes 12 (that's 4 more than the next team on the list!) And who can forget Malcom Butler's interception on the goal line to seal the victory for the Patriots! This game would be a battle of the defenses. and while I would rather see Patriots/Rams, this is the game I think we will see. Both the Seahawks and the Patriots have shown that, especially in the playoffs, they are difficult to move the ball against! Seattle hasn't seen many defesnses this year as talented as New England, while New England, on the other hand, has had to get past the number 1 and number 2 defenses in the league just to get here! Darnald throws a pick late and Maye's deep ball launches the Patriots to victory
Winner: Patriots
Loser: The Pittsburgh Steelers as they move to the second spot for most franchise championships
Patriots vs Rams
Here we have another Super Bowl rematch! What a great story this would be. Tom Brady's first and last Super Bowl win as a Patriot was against the Rams. Drake "Drake Maye" Maye has the opportunity to get his first Super Bowl win against the same team! Not only that but this game pits the two leading condenders for NFL MVP against each other! Matt "27 TD passes from inside the 10" Stafford vs Drake "Drake "Most prolific deep threat we've ever seen" Maye" Maye. The question is, which defense can stop their opponents vaulted offense. I think the edge goes to the Patriots: Their defense will have more take aways and Maye will struggle less with the Rams D than Stafford will agains the Pats.
Winner: Patriots
Loser: Everyone discounting the Patriots on account of their "easy schedule"
And that's just my opinion on what we can expect for this year's Championship Sunday! What's yours?
Sunday, January 25, 2026
Sunday, January 29, 2023
All Four Super Bowl Previews XVI & XVII
This is both the XVIth & XVIIth editions because I did not have an opportunity to post my predictions last year. I will list just my predictions of which game I expected and who would win the game we saw from last year (without the extensive breakdowns) so that the continuity of these posts remains.
I predicted a Rams vs Chiefs Super Bowl. The winner I predicted of the Rams vs Bengals game that we actually saw was the Rams. I felt their team had more experience that would benefit them in the big game.
Now on to this year's preview!
As my faithful readers have grown accustom, I will list each game from least to most compelling & predict the winner of each matchup. You can see how I've done overall here: All Four Super Bowl Previews Results. Without further ado, let's dive in!
Eagles vs Bengals
There's not a whole lot for FOX or the general public to latch onto here. Joe Burrow is hungry for the trophy having made it to the big dance two years in a row but he is facing a team that hasn't had many challenges this year. The Eagles are about as suspect as the Vikings were this year. The Giants had the good fortune of facing those Vikings and the Eagles had the good fortune of facing those Giants. The 49ers will be the first test of the Eagles since the Green Birds from Philly dropped games to the Saints & Cowboys in consecutive weeks and nearly lost to the Bears the week before that. This will be a blowout win for Burrow and the Bengals. It will be over by halftime without the drama of a Brady-esque comeback by Hurts and his crew.
Winner: Bengals
Loser: The other 11 teams who have never won the Lombardi Trophy
Eagles vs Chiefs
Due to the fact that more fair-weather fans are familiar with Mahomes than with Burrow, this matchup gets the third spot. After all, between State Farm, Subway, and Head & Shoulders Mahomes has way more commercial appearances than Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts combined! For the more seasoned NFL fan this could be coined as the Andy Reid Bowl. The head coach of the Chiefs would become the winningest coach in KC history if he defeats his former team where he is still the winningest coach in Eagles history. How thoroughly Mahomes has recovered from his Division week ankle sprain against the Jaguars will determine if the Eagles will look like they still have a chance late in the fourth quarter or if this will be a lopsided as Reagan vs Mondale (or Nixon vs McGovern - take your pick) Either way the Chiefs win. The question is: by 6 or by 26?
Winner: Chiefs (and Andy Reid)
Loser: People tired or hearing Cris Collisnworth gush over Patrick Mahomes
49ers vs Chiefs
Now we are starting to get into the interesting games! Not only is this a rematch of Super Bowl LIV but this game pits the next Tom Brady against the next Payton Manning. Have you decided which is which? Brock Purdy - literally "Mr. Irrelevant" has taken over mid season due to an injury to the starting QB and lead the team to the Super Bowl! He faces off against an explosive QB who dominates in the regular season but despite 5 consecutive trips to the AFC Championship gams has only hoisted 1 Lombardi Trophy. The deciding factor in this game which is the game I expect we will see won't be the offensive side of the ball, however. The 49ers defense has only allowed opponents to score more than 20 points thrice all season! 10 times their opponent didn't score more than 14 points! Combine that defensive dominence with the addition of Purdy and McCaffrey (who have gone 6-0 since Purdy got the starting gig) and you've got a team that will be hard to top - especially for a less-than-100%-Mahomes.
Winner: 49ers
Loser: The Dallas Cowboys who now sit alone with 5 Championships as the 49ers join the Steelers & Patriots with 6
49ers vs Bengals
Here we have another Super Bowl rematch! This time going all the way back to Super Bowls XVI and XXIII (Joe Montana's first and third Super Bowl wins - long before JMO was creating these posts). Now this, like the last two faveoffs between these teams in the big dance, will be a great game! This game will be an "instant classic!" The first matchup of two QBs who will both win multiple Championships in their careers. In a year where the final 4 QBs standing are all under 28 (23, 24, 26, and 27) the torch has been passed and these two QBs will be in the top teir (with Mahomes) for years to come. This game will go back and forth with several lead changes. Burrow will lead a late drive to put the Bengals up by 2 but Purdy will answer with a drive of his own to put the 49ers in position for a last second field goal for the win!
Winner: 49ers
Loser: Patrick Mahomes who is no longer the brightest young QB in the league
There you have it! Of course, these paragraphs are just my opinion. What's yours?
I predicted a Rams vs Chiefs Super Bowl. The winner I predicted of the Rams vs Bengals game that we actually saw was the Rams. I felt their team had more experience that would benefit them in the big game.
Now on to this year's preview!
As my faithful readers have grown accustom, I will list each game from least to most compelling & predict the winner of each matchup. You can see how I've done overall here: All Four Super Bowl Previews Results. Without further ado, let's dive in!
Eagles vs Bengals
There's not a whole lot for FOX or the general public to latch onto here. Joe Burrow is hungry for the trophy having made it to the big dance two years in a row but he is facing a team that hasn't had many challenges this year. The Eagles are about as suspect as the Vikings were this year. The Giants had the good fortune of facing those Vikings and the Eagles had the good fortune of facing those Giants. The 49ers will be the first test of the Eagles since the Green Birds from Philly dropped games to the Saints & Cowboys in consecutive weeks and nearly lost to the Bears the week before that. This will be a blowout win for Burrow and the Bengals. It will be over by halftime without the drama of a Brady-esque comeback by Hurts and his crew.
Winner: Bengals
Loser: The other 11 teams who have never won the Lombardi Trophy
Eagles vs Chiefs
Due to the fact that more fair-weather fans are familiar with Mahomes than with Burrow, this matchup gets the third spot. After all, between State Farm, Subway, and Head & Shoulders Mahomes has way more commercial appearances than Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts combined! For the more seasoned NFL fan this could be coined as the Andy Reid Bowl. The head coach of the Chiefs would become the winningest coach in KC history if he defeats his former team where he is still the winningest coach in Eagles history. How thoroughly Mahomes has recovered from his Division week ankle sprain against the Jaguars will determine if the Eagles will look like they still have a chance late in the fourth quarter or if this will be a lopsided as Reagan vs Mondale (or Nixon vs McGovern - take your pick) Either way the Chiefs win. The question is: by 6 or by 26?
Winner: Chiefs (and Andy Reid)
Loser: People tired or hearing Cris Collisnworth gush over Patrick Mahomes
49ers vs Chiefs
Now we are starting to get into the interesting games! Not only is this a rematch of Super Bowl LIV but this game pits the next Tom Brady against the next Payton Manning. Have you decided which is which? Brock Purdy - literally "Mr. Irrelevant" has taken over mid season due to an injury to the starting QB and lead the team to the Super Bowl! He faces off against an explosive QB who dominates in the regular season but despite 5 consecutive trips to the AFC Championship gams has only hoisted 1 Lombardi Trophy. The deciding factor in this game which is the game I expect we will see won't be the offensive side of the ball, however. The 49ers defense has only allowed opponents to score more than 20 points thrice all season! 10 times their opponent didn't score more than 14 points! Combine that defensive dominence with the addition of Purdy and McCaffrey (who have gone 6-0 since Purdy got the starting gig) and you've got a team that will be hard to top - especially for a less-than-100%-Mahomes.
Winner: 49ers
Loser: The Dallas Cowboys who now sit alone with 5 Championships as the 49ers join the Steelers & Patriots with 6
49ers vs Bengals
Here we have another Super Bowl rematch! This time going all the way back to Super Bowls XVI and XXIII (Joe Montana's first and third Super Bowl wins - long before JMO was creating these posts). Now this, like the last two faveoffs between these teams in the big dance, will be a great game! This game will be an "instant classic!" The first matchup of two QBs who will both win multiple Championships in their careers. In a year where the final 4 QBs standing are all under 28 (23, 24, 26, and 27) the torch has been passed and these two QBs will be in the top teir (with Mahomes) for years to come. This game will go back and forth with several lead changes. Burrow will lead a late drive to put the Bengals up by 2 but Purdy will answer with a drive of his own to put the 49ers in position for a last second field goal for the win!
Winner: 49ers
Loser: Patrick Mahomes who is no longer the brightest young QB in the league
There you have it! Of course, these paragraphs are just my opinion. What's yours?
Sunday, January 24, 2021
All Four Super Bowl Previews XV
While the Super Bowl is celebrating 55 (LV) years JMO is celebrating 15 (XV) years of our breakdown of all four possible Super Bowls. If you'd like to see the previous 14 predictions you can find them consolidated here: All Four Super Bowl Previews Results.
Per usual, I'll be listing the four possible games in order of least to most compelling. This has proven to be more difficult than past years as I would be genuinely excited to see any of these potencial games. I will be including which game I think we will see, along with the winner and loser of each match-up.
Before we jump into the games I just want to point out that the two Quarterbacks in the AFC are 24 and 25 while the two Quarterbacks in the NFC are 37 and 43! What an interesting scenario.
Bills vs Packers
Due to the fact that I think the average viewer would rather see the Chiefs led by Mahomes attempt to become the first back-to-back Super Bowl winner since the Patriots did it in '03 and '04 I'm putting both Bills games at the bottom of the "compelling" list. I also think that Brady with a team not named Patriots would draw more eyeballs than Rogers. The Bills have impressed everyone this year. First time they've won the AFC East since 1995 and the first time it was a team not named the Patriots since 2008. However, the Packers have also been performing quite well this year though somewhat under the radar. This will be a competitive game but Rogers will solidify his legacy with a late game-winning drive to win his second Lombardi Trophy.
Winner: Packers
Loser: ESPN announcers who can't wait for the young QBs to start beating the ancient ones
Bills vs Buccaneers
Bills fans will lose their minds if they have to face off against Tom Brady to win their first ever Super Bowl. He is 32-3. One loss was the year the Bills signed former Patriot Lawyer Malloy and he knew the entire Patriot's playbook. Another was a meaningless week 16 game where most of the Patriots' starters didn't play. In fact, Brady has more wins in Buffalo than every Bills QB since Jim Kelly! And the consternation would continue because Josh Allen and the Bills would not be able to defeat Tom Brady while he's wearing red and orange any more than they could when he was wearing red, white, and blue.
Winner: Buccaneers
Loser: All of the Bills folding tables that will be destroyed before and after the Bills are
Chiefs vs Packers
If Mahomes advances to the Super Bowl he will be facing a Quarterback who wears number 12. Mahomes hasn't faired very well in the post season against QBs who wear this number. These are two offenses that resembe each other quite well. By the numbers the Chiefs defense is higher rated than the Packers and their offense is more explosive. Expect Mahomes to repeat in a high scoring game should the Chiefs face the green and gold.
Winner: Chiefs
Loser: Every other good QB in the league as Mahomes will be all that the commentators will talk about
Chiefs vs Buccaneers
This is the most compelling game available: The Kid vs the Goat. The up-and-comer vs the best ever. This is also the game we will see. Both championship games are rematches of regular season games. While Mahomes has suffered a concussion he will be available to play on Sunday. While the Chiefs won't defeat the Bills as easily as they did they will still represent the AFC in the Big Dance. Brady and Co went down 10-0 against Rogers and the Pack before outscoring them 38-0. Granted this was in Tampa Bay but the cold won't bother Brady. Additionally, this game I'm predicting is a regular season rematch where the Chiefs won 27-24. This game was before Brady and his WR core were clicking like they are now. This will be a back and forth game that will come down to one or two key plays. Alas, Mahomes will NOT repeat as Brady will lift his 7th trophy, pairing Manning's feat of winning the Super Bowl with two different teams.
Winner: Buccaneers
Loser: Brady haters everywhere
There you have it. Let's see how I do. Probably not well but the beauty of it all is this is Just My Opinion.
Per usual, I'll be listing the four possible games in order of least to most compelling. This has proven to be more difficult than past years as I would be genuinely excited to see any of these potencial games. I will be including which game I think we will see, along with the winner and loser of each match-up.
Before we jump into the games I just want to point out that the two Quarterbacks in the AFC are 24 and 25 while the two Quarterbacks in the NFC are 37 and 43! What an interesting scenario.
Bills vs Packers
Due to the fact that I think the average viewer would rather see the Chiefs led by Mahomes attempt to become the first back-to-back Super Bowl winner since the Patriots did it in '03 and '04 I'm putting both Bills games at the bottom of the "compelling" list. I also think that Brady with a team not named Patriots would draw more eyeballs than Rogers. The Bills have impressed everyone this year. First time they've won the AFC East since 1995 and the first time it was a team not named the Patriots since 2008. However, the Packers have also been performing quite well this year though somewhat under the radar. This will be a competitive game but Rogers will solidify his legacy with a late game-winning drive to win his second Lombardi Trophy.
Winner: Packers
Loser: ESPN announcers who can't wait for the young QBs to start beating the ancient ones
Bills vs Buccaneers
Bills fans will lose their minds if they have to face off against Tom Brady to win their first ever Super Bowl. He is 32-3. One loss was the year the Bills signed former Patriot Lawyer Malloy and he knew the entire Patriot's playbook. Another was a meaningless week 16 game where most of the Patriots' starters didn't play. In fact, Brady has more wins in Buffalo than every Bills QB since Jim Kelly! And the consternation would continue because Josh Allen and the Bills would not be able to defeat Tom Brady while he's wearing red and orange any more than they could when he was wearing red, white, and blue.
Winner: Buccaneers
Loser: All of the Bills folding tables that will be destroyed before and after the Bills are
Chiefs vs Packers
If Mahomes advances to the Super Bowl he will be facing a Quarterback who wears number 12. Mahomes hasn't faired very well in the post season against QBs who wear this number. These are two offenses that resembe each other quite well. By the numbers the Chiefs defense is higher rated than the Packers and their offense is more explosive. Expect Mahomes to repeat in a high scoring game should the Chiefs face the green and gold.
Winner: Chiefs
Loser: Every other good QB in the league as Mahomes will be all that the commentators will talk about
Chiefs vs Buccaneers
This is the most compelling game available: The Kid vs the Goat. The up-and-comer vs the best ever. This is also the game we will see. Both championship games are rematches of regular season games. While Mahomes has suffered a concussion he will be available to play on Sunday. While the Chiefs won't defeat the Bills as easily as they did they will still represent the AFC in the Big Dance. Brady and Co went down 10-0 against Rogers and the Pack before outscoring them 38-0. Granted this was in Tampa Bay but the cold won't bother Brady. Additionally, this game I'm predicting is a regular season rematch where the Chiefs won 27-24. This game was before Brady and his WR core were clicking like they are now. This will be a back and forth game that will come down to one or two key plays. Alas, Mahomes will NOT repeat as Brady will lift his 7th trophy, pairing Manning's feat of winning the Super Bowl with two different teams.
Winner: Buccaneers
Loser: Brady haters everywhere
There you have it. Let's see how I do. Probably not well but the beauty of it all is this is Just My Opinion.
Friday, January 08, 2021
2020-2021 NFL Playoff Preview
What a strange year it has been. It's nice to take some time to think about something that has little importance like the NFL playoffs. We have two extra games to consider due to the additional wild card teams. I'll try to break them down in the order in which they will be played
Wild Card
Saturday
AFC Colts at Bills
The Colts are the team that wouldn't have made the playoffs any other year. The Bills are the team that would have had the second bye week. This shouldn't be a difficult task for the Bills to advance.
Winner: Bills
NFC Rams at Seahawks
These two teams faced off twice in the regular season. They split those matchups, each winning their home game. A major difference in this game is that Goff had surgery 12 days ago and isn't expected to play. Even though the Rams were a playoff team two years ago, I don't expect them to be able to surpass the Seahawks.
Winner: Seahawks
NFC Bucaneers at Football Team
You read that right, an NFL playoff game is being hosted by a team called "Football Team." The Washington Mascotless team managed to win the NFC East - the division that someone had to win (interestingly, each team had sole possesion of both first and last place at some point this season). TB12 and his TB squad shouldn't have any problem overcoming the Football Team.
Winner: Buccaneers
Sunday
AFC Ravens at Titans
Last year the Titans shocked the NFL when they defeated Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. This year, when they do it again, fewer people will be surprised. It'll be closer than the last meeting, but the Ravens barely deserve to be in the post season. They won't advance past the mighty Titans.
Winner: Titans
NFC Bears at Saints
Probably the easiest game to predict. While those of us who want to see Brady succeed want to see the Saints knocked off by the Bears that isn't going to happen. The Saints will easily roll past the struggling Bears.
Winner: Saints
AFC Browns at Steelers
The Steelers are the biggest pretenders in the post season. Ranked 14th out of 14 playoff teams in the JMO power rankings the Steelers will struggle to score against the Browns. Starting 11-0 thanks to a weak schedule is the only reason the Steelers are even in the playoffs. They will bow out early.
Winner: Browns
Divisional Round
Saturday
NFC Buccaneers at Packers
Finally Brady and Rogers meet up in the Post season! While Brady doesn't have the vaunted defense that he's enjoyed with many of his Championship Patriot teams the Buccaneers D will be enough to prevent Rogers from scoring over 30 points. This will be enough to allow Brady to orchestrate a last minute scoring drive to elevate the Buccaneers over the Packers.
Winner: Buccaneers
AFC Titans at Bills
These two teams are very similar in their game plans. The trouble is, the Bills are better on both sides of the ball. Expect a close game until late in the 3rd when the Bills begin to pull away.
Winner: Bills
Sunday
AFC Browns at Chiefs
The Browns benefitted from facing off against a weak team in the Wild Card round. They don't get the same benefit this round. While the Browns Defense is impressive the Chiefs are simply too explosive to be stopped. Mayfield has made strides but he won't be able to go stride for stride with Mahomes.
Winner: Chiefs
NFC Seahawks at Saints
The Saints multifaceted attack is difficult to scheme for. The Seahawks have excellent defensive personnel but the Saints are just too innovative.
Winner: Saints
Conference Championships
Saturday
AFC Bills at Chiefs
#1 vs #2. A rematch of week 6 when the Chiefs traveled to Buffalo and didn't have too much difficulty disposing of the Bills. While Fitzpatrick and the Bills have the capacity to defeat Mahomes and the Chiefs they won't be able to stop KC late in the game as they pull away to win by over 10 points.
Winner: Chiefs
NFC Buccaneers at Saints
Brady Brees volume 3. We knew they'd meet twice this season, thanks to the playoffs we get to have episode 3 "Revenge of the TB12." Brees and Crew have already beaten Brady and Co twice. Those two games accounted for more than 40% of Bradys INTs this season. The biggest difference between TB12 wearing TB's colors (as opposed to NE's) is that Bruce Arian's preference is "go deep first" where as Belichick's passing game was quick dink and dunks that worked more like a running game. The Saints Defense is specifically structured to defend against this. If Brady is to win he will need to adjust accordingly. Brady is capable of doing this but will Arians allow him to? I doubt it. It's tough to beat the same team 3 times in one season. That may not matter this year.
Winner: Saints
Super Bowl
Chiefs vs Saints
One really can't go wrong with any of the potential Super Bowls: Bills Buccaneers has the Brady vs old rivalry angle. Chiefs Buccaneers has the Mahomes Brady rematch and this time its for the Lombardi Trophy. Chiefs Saints has two powerful passing offenses facing off against each other. Bills Chiefs has two rising teams competing to see who will be the best. Bills Saints is probably the least compelling of the matchups. Buccaneers Bills is what I'd want to see. Chiefs Saints is what I expect. The Saints will jump out to a strong early lead and then be able to rely on their secondary to prevent the explosive deep passing game of Mahomes and Hill. Expect Kelce to have a big game and if the Chiefs manage to eek out a win he'll likely get MVP honors. However, this will be Brees' opportunity to win his second Lombardi trophy and retire on top.
Winner: Saints
Just for fun, Chiefs win against the Bucs, Bills would lose to either NFC team. I usually do a pretty poor job at predicting these. Let's see if that holds true. I hope you enjoyed reading what amounts to be Just My Opinion.
Wild Card
Saturday
AFC Colts at Bills
The Colts are the team that wouldn't have made the playoffs any other year. The Bills are the team that would have had the second bye week. This shouldn't be a difficult task for the Bills to advance.
Winner: Bills
NFC Rams at Seahawks
These two teams faced off twice in the regular season. They split those matchups, each winning their home game. A major difference in this game is that Goff had surgery 12 days ago and isn't expected to play. Even though the Rams were a playoff team two years ago, I don't expect them to be able to surpass the Seahawks.
Winner: Seahawks
NFC Bucaneers at Football Team
You read that right, an NFL playoff game is being hosted by a team called "Football Team." The Washington Mascotless team managed to win the NFC East - the division that someone had to win (interestingly, each team had sole possesion of both first and last place at some point this season). TB12 and his TB squad shouldn't have any problem overcoming the Football Team.
Winner: Buccaneers
Sunday
AFC Ravens at Titans
Last year the Titans shocked the NFL when they defeated Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. This year, when they do it again, fewer people will be surprised. It'll be closer than the last meeting, but the Ravens barely deserve to be in the post season. They won't advance past the mighty Titans.
Winner: Titans
NFC Bears at Saints
Probably the easiest game to predict. While those of us who want to see Brady succeed want to see the Saints knocked off by the Bears that isn't going to happen. The Saints will easily roll past the struggling Bears.
Winner: Saints
AFC Browns at Steelers
The Steelers are the biggest pretenders in the post season. Ranked 14th out of 14 playoff teams in the JMO power rankings the Steelers will struggle to score against the Browns. Starting 11-0 thanks to a weak schedule is the only reason the Steelers are even in the playoffs. They will bow out early.
Winner: Browns
Divisional Round
Saturday
NFC Buccaneers at Packers
Finally Brady and Rogers meet up in the Post season! While Brady doesn't have the vaunted defense that he's enjoyed with many of his Championship Patriot teams the Buccaneers D will be enough to prevent Rogers from scoring over 30 points. This will be enough to allow Brady to orchestrate a last minute scoring drive to elevate the Buccaneers over the Packers.
Winner: Buccaneers
AFC Titans at Bills
These two teams are very similar in their game plans. The trouble is, the Bills are better on both sides of the ball. Expect a close game until late in the 3rd when the Bills begin to pull away.
Winner: Bills
Sunday
AFC Browns at Chiefs
The Browns benefitted from facing off against a weak team in the Wild Card round. They don't get the same benefit this round. While the Browns Defense is impressive the Chiefs are simply too explosive to be stopped. Mayfield has made strides but he won't be able to go stride for stride with Mahomes.
Winner: Chiefs
NFC Seahawks at Saints
The Saints multifaceted attack is difficult to scheme for. The Seahawks have excellent defensive personnel but the Saints are just too innovative.
Winner: Saints
Conference Championships
Saturday
AFC Bills at Chiefs
#1 vs #2. A rematch of week 6 when the Chiefs traveled to Buffalo and didn't have too much difficulty disposing of the Bills. While Fitzpatrick and the Bills have the capacity to defeat Mahomes and the Chiefs they won't be able to stop KC late in the game as they pull away to win by over 10 points.
Winner: Chiefs
NFC Buccaneers at Saints
Brady Brees volume 3. We knew they'd meet twice this season, thanks to the playoffs we get to have episode 3 "Revenge of the TB12." Brees and Crew have already beaten Brady and Co twice. Those two games accounted for more than 40% of Bradys INTs this season. The biggest difference between TB12 wearing TB's colors (as opposed to NE's) is that Bruce Arian's preference is "go deep first" where as Belichick's passing game was quick dink and dunks that worked more like a running game. The Saints Defense is specifically structured to defend against this. If Brady is to win he will need to adjust accordingly. Brady is capable of doing this but will Arians allow him to? I doubt it. It's tough to beat the same team 3 times in one season. That may not matter this year.
Winner: Saints
Super Bowl
Chiefs vs Saints
One really can't go wrong with any of the potential Super Bowls: Bills Buccaneers has the Brady vs old rivalry angle. Chiefs Buccaneers has the Mahomes Brady rematch and this time its for the Lombardi Trophy. Chiefs Saints has two powerful passing offenses facing off against each other. Bills Chiefs has two rising teams competing to see who will be the best. Bills Saints is probably the least compelling of the matchups. Buccaneers Bills is what I'd want to see. Chiefs Saints is what I expect. The Saints will jump out to a strong early lead and then be able to rely on their secondary to prevent the explosive deep passing game of Mahomes and Hill. Expect Kelce to have a big game and if the Chiefs manage to eek out a win he'll likely get MVP honors. However, this will be Brees' opportunity to win his second Lombardi trophy and retire on top.
Winner: Saints
Just for fun, Chiefs win against the Bucs, Bills would lose to either NFC team. I usually do a pretty poor job at predicting these. Let's see if that holds true. I hope you enjoyed reading what amounts to be Just My Opinion.
Saturday, January 18, 2020
All Four Super Bowl Previews XIV
It's hard to believe that this is the 14th year that I've been previewing each of the four possible Super Bowls. In fact, this very post was the only thing keeping this blog alive for many years.
If you perused my 2019-2020 playoff preview you'll see just how poorly I did getting 75% of the wild card games wrong. It was such a bad showing that I found myself pulling for the Eagles so I could go a complete 0 for 4! I would have also predicted the Ravens/Titans game wrong.
I just want to take a moment to highlight this astonishing fact: This is the first time since 2011 that the Patriots are not in the AFC Championship game! Eight consecutive years of appearing in the AFC Championship game is an amazing feat. They've faced 6 different teams over those 8 years (Chiefs, Jaguars, Steelers, Broncos [twice], Colts, & Ravens [twice]).
If you're interested in how I've done historically, here is a link to my previous 13 predictions:
All Four Super Bowl Preview Annual Results. I've gone 20 for 37 so far for a score of 54%. Let's see if we can get that up to 58% with this year's predictions!
As you've come to expect, I will preview the games from what I believe to be least compelling to most compelling. I'll highlight which game I'm predicting along with which team I think would win each of the four games.
Titans vs 49ers
Too few people even know who Ryan Tannehill is to put either game with the Titans very high on the compelling list. However, the Titans are currently the second best team remaining in the playoffs. That's right, the 6th seed out of the AFC is the second best team. Consider the following: Since switching QBs from Mariota to Tannehill the Titans have gone 9 - 3. They've gone 4-2 against playoff teams defeating the likes of the Ravens, Chiefs, Patriots, and Texans (Losing to the Texans and Saints) and winning most of these games on the road. Unfortunately for the Titans, the 49ers are the *best* team still in the running to hoist the silver football. If you didn't like last year's defensive, low-scoring Super Bowl, you won't like this one either. With two run-heavy, defensively-minded teams this will be a low-scoring game that will go by quickly. Additionally, this is the game that we will watch - and when we watch it, we will see Garoppolo and the 'Niners end the Cinderella story of Tannehill and the Titans in a closely fought game. I expect there will be a similar heartbreaking ending for the Titans as when they lost to the Rams: A late drive to try to win the game that comes just one play short.
Winner: 49ers
Loser: Everyone who didn't want to see "The Patriots" in the Super Bowl (Garoppolo, Vrabel)
Titans vs Packers
There is a storyline here: The trophy handed out to the winner of the Super Bowl is named for the legendary coach of the Green Bay Packers: Vince Lombardi. The Tennessee Titans have never won the big game (not even in their previous iteration as the Houston Oilers). So here we have the team that won the first 2 championships (but not since 2011) vs a team that has never won. The Titans are on the way up while, on the other hand, The Packers are on the way down. They haven't looked like the Pack of the past. The Packers have struggled to win games where their opponent scored more than 20 points. Combine that stat with the fact that, of the four remaining teams, the Packers had the easiest schedule, don't expect them to overcome the fierce running game of Henry and the Titans. It'll be close at the end but the Titans pull out the win.
Winner: Titans
Loser: Quarterbacks under the age of 30
Chiefs vs Packers
Old guard vs the next big thing. This game would pit two similar offenses together. Powerful passing teams with supportive runners that both have less-than-stellar defenses. This would be a high scoring game as Rogers & Co march down the field with diligent and intentional drives that pick the Chiefs defense apart. The Chiefs would respond with their explosive offensive plays that pick up huge chunks of yardage as they out-match the Packer's D with their speed and quickness. This game will come down to mistakes vs big plays. Both of which will be made more by the Chiefs. The final one will be a desperation play that looks like it may win the game for Mahomes and his hommies (How could I resist) but will result in a game ending interceptions sealing the victory for Green Bay.
Winner: Packers
Loser: State Farm. For which of their QB spokespersons will they cheer?
Chiefs vs 49ers
I believe this is the game that the general public think they want to see. The highest ranked team in the NFC vs the highest ranked team remaining in the AFC. Garoppolo vs Mahomes. The two rising young quarterbacks who look like they maybe be the future Brady vs Manning. This looks like it has the makings of a great Super Bowl. Here's why they're wrong: While Kansas City has perhaps the most potent offense in the NFL that can score on short drives in the blink of an eye, their rushing defense is atrocious. The 49ers are a power rushing team with a quick-pass, west-coast offense that taxes pass defenses as though they were run plays. This match-up would have some exciting moments as the Chiefs attempt to climb their way back into the game but the 49ers will be in control for the majority of the game beginning late in the 1st Quarter. This snooze-fest concludes with Garoppolo hoisting his first (of several) Lombardi Trophy
Winner: 49ers
Loser: "The Old Guard" of Brady, Rogers, Manning, Rivers, & Brees
If you perused my 2019-2020 playoff preview you'll see just how poorly I did getting 75% of the wild card games wrong. It was such a bad showing that I found myself pulling for the Eagles so I could go a complete 0 for 4! I would have also predicted the Ravens/Titans game wrong.
I just want to take a moment to highlight this astonishing fact: This is the first time since 2011 that the Patriots are not in the AFC Championship game! Eight consecutive years of appearing in the AFC Championship game is an amazing feat. They've faced 6 different teams over those 8 years (Chiefs, Jaguars, Steelers, Broncos [twice], Colts, & Ravens [twice]).
If you're interested in how I've done historically, here is a link to my previous 13 predictions:
All Four Super Bowl Preview Annual Results. I've gone 20 for 37 so far for a score of 54%. Let's see if we can get that up to 58% with this year's predictions!
As you've come to expect, I will preview the games from what I believe to be least compelling to most compelling. I'll highlight which game I'm predicting along with which team I think would win each of the four games.
Titans vs 49ers
Too few people even know who Ryan Tannehill is to put either game with the Titans very high on the compelling list. However, the Titans are currently the second best team remaining in the playoffs. That's right, the 6th seed out of the AFC is the second best team. Consider the following: Since switching QBs from Mariota to Tannehill the Titans have gone 9 - 3. They've gone 4-2 against playoff teams defeating the likes of the Ravens, Chiefs, Patriots, and Texans (Losing to the Texans and Saints) and winning most of these games on the road. Unfortunately for the Titans, the 49ers are the *best* team still in the running to hoist the silver football. If you didn't like last year's defensive, low-scoring Super Bowl, you won't like this one either. With two run-heavy, defensively-minded teams this will be a low-scoring game that will go by quickly. Additionally, this is the game that we will watch - and when we watch it, we will see Garoppolo and the 'Niners end the Cinderella story of Tannehill and the Titans in a closely fought game. I expect there will be a similar heartbreaking ending for the Titans as when they lost to the Rams: A late drive to try to win the game that comes just one play short.
Winner: 49ers
Loser: Everyone who didn't want to see "The Patriots" in the Super Bowl (Garoppolo, Vrabel)
Titans vs Packers
There is a storyline here: The trophy handed out to the winner of the Super Bowl is named for the legendary coach of the Green Bay Packers: Vince Lombardi. The Tennessee Titans have never won the big game (not even in their previous iteration as the Houston Oilers). So here we have the team that won the first 2 championships (but not since 2011) vs a team that has never won. The Titans are on the way up while, on the other hand, The Packers are on the way down. They haven't looked like the Pack of the past. The Packers have struggled to win games where their opponent scored more than 20 points. Combine that stat with the fact that, of the four remaining teams, the Packers had the easiest schedule, don't expect them to overcome the fierce running game of Henry and the Titans. It'll be close at the end but the Titans pull out the win.
Winner: Titans
Loser: Quarterbacks under the age of 30
Chiefs vs Packers
Old guard vs the next big thing. This game would pit two similar offenses together. Powerful passing teams with supportive runners that both have less-than-stellar defenses. This would be a high scoring game as Rogers & Co march down the field with diligent and intentional drives that pick the Chiefs defense apart. The Chiefs would respond with their explosive offensive plays that pick up huge chunks of yardage as they out-match the Packer's D with their speed and quickness. This game will come down to mistakes vs big plays. Both of which will be made more by the Chiefs. The final one will be a desperation play that looks like it may win the game for Mahomes and his hommies (How could I resist) but will result in a game ending interceptions sealing the victory for Green Bay.
Winner: Packers
Loser: State Farm. For which of their QB spokespersons will they cheer?
Chiefs vs 49ers
I believe this is the game that the general public think they want to see. The highest ranked team in the NFC vs the highest ranked team remaining in the AFC. Garoppolo vs Mahomes. The two rising young quarterbacks who look like they maybe be the future Brady vs Manning. This looks like it has the makings of a great Super Bowl. Here's why they're wrong: While Kansas City has perhaps the most potent offense in the NFL that can score on short drives in the blink of an eye, their rushing defense is atrocious. The 49ers are a power rushing team with a quick-pass, west-coast offense that taxes pass defenses as though they were run plays. This match-up would have some exciting moments as the Chiefs attempt to climb their way back into the game but the 49ers will be in control for the majority of the game beginning late in the 1st Quarter. This snooze-fest concludes with Garoppolo hoisting his first (of several) Lombardi Trophy
Winner: 49ers
Loser: "The Old Guard" of Brady, Rogers, Manning, Rivers, & Brees
Saturday, January 04, 2020
2019 - 2020 NFL Playoff Preview
It's not every year that I have the opportunity to breakdown what (probably won't but) may happen in the playoffs. However, as this is my favorite time of year, when I do have the time I enjoy taking it!
I didn't post one of these last year so you don't have to sit through the torture of me recapping how poorly I did.
We will start with the AFC (in order of when the games will air)
Bills @ Texans:
Two 10 - 6 teams face off in Houston. These teams can be a bit of a quandary as Houston defeated such juggernauts as the Chiefs and the Patriots but lost to the 7-9 Colts and the 5-11 Panthers. While Buffalo was unable to over come the Patriots either time they faced off this year they did beat another playoff team in the Titans and also overcame two bubble teams: Dallas and Pittsburgh. Their common opponents are just as confusing with each losing to teams the other defeated. With two mobile and youthful quarterbacks this game will come down to the defense. Buffalo is second overall in defense. Houston is 22. The Bills will buck their way to the second round.
Titans @ Patriots
While this game appears to be a one that should cause Patriots fans to be concerned (Vrabel, a former Belichick protégé, and a team with a strong running game) there are several things in the Patriots favor: the Patriots have forced nearly an entire season's worth of turnovers MORE than the Titans, the Patriots have the number 1 defense in the league, and the Patriots 8th rank passing offense by far surpasses the Titan's 24th ranked passing D. Expect TB12 and "The Squirrel" Julian Edelman to pad their playoff passing stats in this walk-away win for the Pats.
Bills @ Ravens
This is the worst possible AFC match-up for the Baltimore Ravens. The Bills are one of the final two teams that have a chance of stopping the potent Ravens offense. With two similar very mobile QBs in Jackson and Allen along with two very difficult to bring down RBs with Singletary and Ingram these two teams match-up amazingly well. Combine that with the fact that the Bills gave up just under 10 more yards per game that the Ravens and you've got a recipe for a very exciting, very physical ground & pound game. What will be the deciding factor of this game will be the ability of the QBs to pass effectively. Oddly enough, the edge goes to Allen. However, the Ravens D will make a big play late in the game to seal their victory.
Patriots @ Chiefs
A rematch of last year's thrilling AFC Championship game where the Patriots shocked the rookie QB Mahomes with a 37-31 finish in overtime. It's also a rematch of the Chief's victory (referee assisted victory) over the Patriots in the regular season. So who walks away from this contest with the W? This is a classic case of powerful offense vs stingy defense. The saying holds true: Defense wins championships. Expect Brady & Co to move on.
Patriots @ Ravens
While people may think they want to see the Chiefs face the Ravens that game would not be as compelling as this one. The Ravens would walk away with that game. This one will be much closer. All season Lamar and the Ravens have been utilizing the same game plan because it works. But that means that football grandmaster Belichick has a season's worth of film to devise a way to stop it. The question is: Can the Patriot's offense move the ball and score against the Raven's third ranked D? Just like the Patriots most recent Super Bowl win this will be a low scoring, one score game that will come down to the closing seconds to determine the winner. And the team that will be representing the AFC in the Super Bowl will be the Baltimore Ravens.
NFC
Vikings @ Saints
For many the Vikings are a surprise playoff team. The "experts" had already declared the Bears the winners of the Super Bowl. With Trubisky and Mack AND Rogers and Adams to overcome, how could Cousins & Co possibly make the post season? Well, with a Chicago implosion and a bunch of other NFC teams seemingly trying NOT to make the playoffs here they are. And they draw Drew Brees and the Saints. Enjoy your playoff game, Vikings, maybe you'll get another next year.
Seahawks @ Eagles
Much like the Vikings, no one thought that ANYONE from the NFC East would be in the playoffs. But somebody had to win. Keeping Dallas out the Eagles managed to get to host this playoff game. Compare that with the Seahawks who were a game or two away from winning the NFC West and maybe having a bye week. The Eagles won't have an opportunity to run another "Philly Special" in the big game as they are one and done.
Seahawks @ 49ers
These two teams swapped victories the two times they faced each other in the regular season with the 49ers winning the week 17. While they match up well against each other (experiencing a 1 point difference with the combined total of their two face-offs) when it comes to common opponents the 49ers are head and shoulders ahead of the Seahawks. While it won't be an easy win the 49ers will finish with the W.
Saints @ Packers
Two of the greatest QBs in the NFL face off in this game. Additionally, two very evenly matched teams: averaging their offensive and defensive rankings they both fall between 12th & 13th place with the Saints being a more powerful offense with the Packers having a more balanced team. This game is the most difficult for me to make a selection but I expect Brees and his passing game to win as Roger's last minute trademarked "hail mary" pass is deflected to the ground (with a questionable no-call on DPI).
Saints @ 49ers
The rematch of week 14 where the 49ers finally proved they were the real thing, having lost to all of the other good teams they'd faced who were above .500 at the time. Also, the third year in a row that New Orleans' fans will have their hearts wrenched from their chests (narrowly losing to the Rams last year, and the "Miracle in Minnesota" the year before). While the Saints will be in this game until the 4th they will be unable to stop the running game of the 49ers and will, once again, have to say "maybe next year."
Super Bowl
Ravens vs 49ers
The rematch of Super Bowl XLVII (47) [aka the Har-Bowl (as the Harbaugh brothers faced off); aka the Blackout Bowl (when one half of the SuperDome's lights went out)] when the Ravens edged out the 49ers by a score of 34 - 31 (with "begging for a defensive holding call" final play). While ESPN and the NFL are ready to crown Lamar Jackson as the next "Greatest QB ever" he's gonna have to wait because Garoppolo will win his first Super Bowl ring. These two teams will provide us with an old-school, grind-it-out, dirt-in-the-cleats, head-down-north-south, lots-of-hyphens, defensive-battle game! The Ravens and 49ers are first & second in rushing, first & second in total TDs scored, and third & fifth regarding points against (all respectively). So with two teams so evenly matched what will decide the winner? The passing game. The 49ers are the number 1 passing defense in the league. The Ravens? Number 6. But the 49ers offensive passing rank is 14 places higher than the Ravens. Garoppolo will out pass Lamar when it matters most and hoist his first Lombardi Trophy as the 49ers win their first Super Bowl since 1995.
There you have it: my playoff predictions (which at the time I'm submitting this edit are already 0-1). Stay tuned in a few weeks for my favorite (and sometimes only) post of the year: All Four Super Bowl Previews (XIV!)
I didn't post one of these last year so you don't have to sit through the torture of me recapping how poorly I did.
We will start with the AFC (in order of when the games will air)
Bills @ Texans:
Two 10 - 6 teams face off in Houston. These teams can be a bit of a quandary as Houston defeated such juggernauts as the Chiefs and the Patriots but lost to the 7-9 Colts and the 5-11 Panthers. While Buffalo was unable to over come the Patriots either time they faced off this year they did beat another playoff team in the Titans and also overcame two bubble teams: Dallas and Pittsburgh. Their common opponents are just as confusing with each losing to teams the other defeated. With two mobile and youthful quarterbacks this game will come down to the defense. Buffalo is second overall in defense. Houston is 22. The Bills will buck their way to the second round.
Titans @ Patriots
While this game appears to be a one that should cause Patriots fans to be concerned (Vrabel, a former Belichick protégé, and a team with a strong running game) there are several things in the Patriots favor: the Patriots have forced nearly an entire season's worth of turnovers MORE than the Titans, the Patriots have the number 1 defense in the league, and the Patriots 8th rank passing offense by far surpasses the Titan's 24th ranked passing D. Expect TB12 and "The Squirrel" Julian Edelman to pad their playoff passing stats in this walk-away win for the Pats.
Bills @ Ravens
This is the worst possible AFC match-up for the Baltimore Ravens. The Bills are one of the final two teams that have a chance of stopping the potent Ravens offense. With two similar very mobile QBs in Jackson and Allen along with two very difficult to bring down RBs with Singletary and Ingram these two teams match-up amazingly well. Combine that with the fact that the Bills gave up just under 10 more yards per game that the Ravens and you've got a recipe for a very exciting, very physical ground & pound game. What will be the deciding factor of this game will be the ability of the QBs to pass effectively. Oddly enough, the edge goes to Allen. However, the Ravens D will make a big play late in the game to seal their victory.
Patriots @ Chiefs
A rematch of last year's thrilling AFC Championship game where the Patriots shocked the rookie QB Mahomes with a 37-31 finish in overtime. It's also a rematch of the Chief's victory (referee assisted victory) over the Patriots in the regular season. So who walks away from this contest with the W? This is a classic case of powerful offense vs stingy defense. The saying holds true: Defense wins championships. Expect Brady & Co to move on.
Patriots @ Ravens
While people may think they want to see the Chiefs face the Ravens that game would not be as compelling as this one. The Ravens would walk away with that game. This one will be much closer. All season Lamar and the Ravens have been utilizing the same game plan because it works. But that means that football grandmaster Belichick has a season's worth of film to devise a way to stop it. The question is: Can the Patriot's offense move the ball and score against the Raven's third ranked D? Just like the Patriots most recent Super Bowl win this will be a low scoring, one score game that will come down to the closing seconds to determine the winner. And the team that will be representing the AFC in the Super Bowl will be the Baltimore Ravens.
NFC
Vikings @ Saints
For many the Vikings are a surprise playoff team. The "experts" had already declared the Bears the winners of the Super Bowl. With Trubisky and Mack AND Rogers and Adams to overcome, how could Cousins & Co possibly make the post season? Well, with a Chicago implosion and a bunch of other NFC teams seemingly trying NOT to make the playoffs here they are. And they draw Drew Brees and the Saints. Enjoy your playoff game, Vikings, maybe you'll get another next year.
Seahawks @ Eagles
Much like the Vikings, no one thought that ANYONE from the NFC East would be in the playoffs. But somebody had to win. Keeping Dallas out the Eagles managed to get to host this playoff game. Compare that with the Seahawks who were a game or two away from winning the NFC West and maybe having a bye week. The Eagles won't have an opportunity to run another "Philly Special" in the big game as they are one and done.
Seahawks @ 49ers
These two teams swapped victories the two times they faced each other in the regular season with the 49ers winning the week 17. While they match up well against each other (experiencing a 1 point difference with the combined total of their two face-offs) when it comes to common opponents the 49ers are head and shoulders ahead of the Seahawks. While it won't be an easy win the 49ers will finish with the W.
Saints @ Packers
Two of the greatest QBs in the NFL face off in this game. Additionally, two very evenly matched teams: averaging their offensive and defensive rankings they both fall between 12th & 13th place with the Saints being a more powerful offense with the Packers having a more balanced team. This game is the most difficult for me to make a selection but I expect Brees and his passing game to win as Roger's last minute trademarked "hail mary" pass is deflected to the ground (with a questionable no-call on DPI).
Saints @ 49ers
The rematch of week 14 where the 49ers finally proved they were the real thing, having lost to all of the other good teams they'd faced who were above .500 at the time. Also, the third year in a row that New Orleans' fans will have their hearts wrenched from their chests (narrowly losing to the Rams last year, and the "Miracle in Minnesota" the year before). While the Saints will be in this game until the 4th they will be unable to stop the running game of the 49ers and will, once again, have to say "maybe next year."
Super Bowl
Ravens vs 49ers
The rematch of Super Bowl XLVII (47) [aka the Har-Bowl (as the Harbaugh brothers faced off); aka the Blackout Bowl (when one half of the SuperDome's lights went out)] when the Ravens edged out the 49ers by a score of 34 - 31 (with "begging for a defensive holding call" final play). While ESPN and the NFL are ready to crown Lamar Jackson as the next "Greatest QB ever" he's gonna have to wait because Garoppolo will win his first Super Bowl ring. These two teams will provide us with an old-school, grind-it-out, dirt-in-the-cleats, head-down-north-south, lots-of-hyphens, defensive-battle game! The Ravens and 49ers are first & second in rushing, first & second in total TDs scored, and third & fifth regarding points against (all respectively). So with two teams so evenly matched what will decide the winner? The passing game. The 49ers are the number 1 passing defense in the league. The Ravens? Number 6. But the 49ers offensive passing rank is 14 places higher than the Ravens. Garoppolo will out pass Lamar when it matters most and hoist his first Lombardi Trophy as the 49ers win their first Super Bowl since 1995.
There you have it: my playoff predictions (which at the time I'm submitting this edit are already 0-1). Stay tuned in a few weeks for my favorite (and sometimes only) post of the year: All Four Super Bowl Previews (XIV!)
Saturday, January 19, 2019
All Four Super Bowl Previews XIII
Anyone who knows me knows that the NFL Playoff season is my favorite time of the year! It's like Christmas every weekend! (If you'd like to see how I've fared with my predictions over the past eleven years, you'll find them listed at the bottom of this post along with links if you're interested in my previous analysis.)
If you'd like to see how I've done year over year, you will find my historic results here: All Four Super Bowl Preview Annual Results
Alright, here are this year's games from least compelling* to most: *("Compelling" refers to how interested an average viewer might be and which game the networks are hoping for)
Chiefs vs Rams
While the analysts might enjoy examining a 2016 draft pick (Goff) vs a 2017 draft pick (Mahomes), seeing two practically rookie QBs facing off in the big game isn't as exciting as it may seem. It also will be less-than-compelling to see the Patriot-haters continue to salivate over the "next Brady/Manning" in Patrick Mahomes. One NFL "analyst" in reviewing the Patriots/Chiefs game gave the QB edge to Mahomes! Not the offensive edge (which, while a stretch, could be understandable). No, no, the QB edge! That somehow the sophomore "no-look-passer-in-his-first-post-season" had the edge on the "I-have-more-playoff-wins-than-you-have-career-starts-(or-years-of-age-for-that-matter)" 5-time-Super-Bowl-MVP veteran! Anyway. This game would feature explosive offenses with zero defense. Take the over on this game and expect on of the highest scoring Super Bowls in history. KC ranks 31st in passing D (probably because they got out to early leads so teams had to pass against them) but 27th in run defense (which is atrocious when you hold the lead for most of the game). The Rams aren't much better ranking 14th and 23rd respectively but it should be enough to stop Mahomes in his bid for his first ring.
Winner: Rams
Losers: The score board operators! (Good thing they aren't manual anymore!)
Patriots vs Rams
Let's be honest, most Americans don't want to see Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the Patriots in yet another Super Bowl. But if they DO have to watch it they'd rather see Brady face off against Brees than Goff. Not only because in an effort to de-throne Brady people are looking to garbage-time-stat-monster Brees. The Rams of this year look a lot like the Eagles of last year: An up-and-coming QB with a good run game and solid receivers. That may sound like it spells doom for TB12 and his crew as they were unable to overcome the Eagles last year. However, there is a very believable reason as to why the Patriots lost that game (A short version of the theory can be found here: Did Belichick Throw The Super Bowl?) Will this happen again? We at JMO don't think so. This game might be close at the half, but expect the Patriots to pull away late in the game.
Winner: Patriots
Loser: Robert Kraft as Belichick will have proven he's necessary for the Patriot's Super Bowl wins
Patriots vs Saints
This game should be viewed as the most compelling as it pits two perennial all star quarterbacks against each other as well as the Offensive minded Sean Payton against the Defensive minded Bill Belichick. And if there was ever a claim to be made about which team cheated more this is the match-up for that debate (See: Bounty-gate v Deflate-gate)! The Patriots are the best team remaining regarding passing defense, while the Saints are the best remaining team regarding rushing defense. Those represent the strengths of each team's opponent as the Patriots failed to win when they didn't have 100 yards rushing and the Saints lost when their passing game was off-kilter. So who wins this game? (Which is the game we will have the pleasure of seeing)?
Winner: Saints
Losers: Anyone near a Saints fan announcing that Brees is the only QB to defeat Brady and Manning in the Super Bowl
Chiefs vs Saints
This is the game that the networks want! Mahomes has been every non-New England football analysts sweetheart since week 2. They are hoping so strongly that he can unseat Brady in the AFC Championship game and then beat Brees in the Super Bowl and be the young, fresh face of the NFL. Not since Andrew Luck and Cam Newton has there been such fanfare over the "next great QB!" This game is what the NFL wants as well because the Chiefs and Saints are 3rd and 12th in passing offense (respectively) while also being 32nd and 31st in passing defense (also, respectively)! Maybe the coaches can have an agreement where they each get an offensive series while the opponent's defense stays on the bench. The fans watching at home won't really be able to tell the difference. Taking into account the fact that some defense wins championships combined with the inexperience of the Chiefs this game will go to Drew Brees and the Saints.
Winner: Saints
Loser: The Las Vegas Over/Under Bookies
Those are my thoughts, what are yours?
If you'd like to see how I've done year over year, you will find my historic results here: All Four Super Bowl Preview Annual Results
Alright, here are this year's games from least compelling* to most: *("Compelling" refers to how interested an average viewer might be and which game the networks are hoping for)
Chiefs vs Rams
While the analysts might enjoy examining a 2016 draft pick (Goff) vs a 2017 draft pick (Mahomes), seeing two practically rookie QBs facing off in the big game isn't as exciting as it may seem. It also will be less-than-compelling to see the Patriot-haters continue to salivate over the "next Brady/Manning" in Patrick Mahomes. One NFL "analyst" in reviewing the Patriots/Chiefs game gave the QB edge to Mahomes! Not the offensive edge (which, while a stretch, could be understandable). No, no, the QB edge! That somehow the sophomore "no-look-passer-in-his-first-post-season" had the edge on the "I-have-more-playoff-wins-than-you-have-career-starts-(or-years-of-age-for-that-matter)" 5-time-Super-Bowl-MVP veteran! Anyway. This game would feature explosive offenses with zero defense. Take the over on this game and expect on of the highest scoring Super Bowls in history. KC ranks 31st in passing D (probably because they got out to early leads so teams had to pass against them) but 27th in run defense (which is atrocious when you hold the lead for most of the game). The Rams aren't much better ranking 14th and 23rd respectively but it should be enough to stop Mahomes in his bid for his first ring.
Winner: Rams
Losers: The score board operators! (Good thing they aren't manual anymore!)
Patriots vs Rams
Let's be honest, most Americans don't want to see Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the Patriots in yet another Super Bowl. But if they DO have to watch it they'd rather see Brady face off against Brees than Goff. Not only because in an effort to de-throne Brady people are looking to garbage-time-stat-monster Brees. The Rams of this year look a lot like the Eagles of last year: An up-and-coming QB with a good run game and solid receivers. That may sound like it spells doom for TB12 and his crew as they were unable to overcome the Eagles last year. However, there is a very believable reason as to why the Patriots lost that game (A short version of the theory can be found here: Did Belichick Throw The Super Bowl?) Will this happen again? We at JMO don't think so. This game might be close at the half, but expect the Patriots to pull away late in the game.
Winner: Patriots
Loser: Robert Kraft as Belichick will have proven he's necessary for the Patriot's Super Bowl wins
Patriots vs Saints
This game should be viewed as the most compelling as it pits two perennial all star quarterbacks against each other as well as the Offensive minded Sean Payton against the Defensive minded Bill Belichick. And if there was ever a claim to be made about which team cheated more this is the match-up for that debate (See: Bounty-gate v Deflate-gate)! The Patriots are the best team remaining regarding passing defense, while the Saints are the best remaining team regarding rushing defense. Those represent the strengths of each team's opponent as the Patriots failed to win when they didn't have 100 yards rushing and the Saints lost when their passing game was off-kilter. So who wins this game? (Which is the game we will have the pleasure of seeing)?
Winner: Saints
Losers: Anyone near a Saints fan announcing that Brees is the only QB to defeat Brady and Manning in the Super Bowl
Chiefs vs Saints
This is the game that the networks want! Mahomes has been every non-New England football analysts sweetheart since week 2. They are hoping so strongly that he can unseat Brady in the AFC Championship game and then beat Brees in the Super Bowl and be the young, fresh face of the NFL. Not since Andrew Luck and Cam Newton has there been such fanfare over the "next great QB!" This game is what the NFL wants as well because the Chiefs and Saints are 3rd and 12th in passing offense (respectively) while also being 32nd and 31st in passing defense (also, respectively)! Maybe the coaches can have an agreement where they each get an offensive series while the opponent's defense stays on the bench. The fans watching at home won't really be able to tell the difference. Taking into account the fact that some defense wins championships combined with the inexperience of the Chiefs this game will go to Drew Brees and the Saints.
Winner: Saints
Loser: The Las Vegas Over/Under Bookies
Those are my thoughts, what are yours?
Continuing Collection of "All Four Super Bowl Previews" Results
My "All Four Super Bowl Previews" were getting a bit long-winded with the inclusion of the links to all of my previous annual predictions. Accordingly, I've decided to consolidate all of my results in one post that I will update and link to each year. Here is my current score: Last year I went 2 out of 3 bringing my total tally to 26 for 46, for a score of 56.5%.
Here are the links to my previous predictions, analysis, winners, and losers (from most recent to my first post in 2007):
2026, Patriots/Broncos vs Rams/Seahawks;
Game Predicted: Patriots over Seahawks
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: TBD
Score/Rolling Percentage: x for x; xx.x% (33+x for 58)
2025, Eagles over Chiefs;
Game Predicted: Eagles over Bills
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Eagles
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 60.0% (33 for 55)
2024, Chiefs over 49ers;
Game Predicted: Chiefs over 49ers
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Chiefs
Score/Rolling Percentage: 3 for 3; 59.6% (31 for 52)
2023, Chiefs over Eagles;
Game Predicted: 49ers over Chiefs
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Chiefs
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 57.1% (28 for 49)
2022, Rams over Bengals;
Game Predicted: Chiefs over Rams
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Rams
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 56.5% (26 for 46)
2021, Bucaneers over Chiefs;
Game Predicted: Bucaneers over Chiefs
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Bucaneers
Score/Rolling Percentage: 3 for 3; 55.8% (24 for 43)
2020, Chiefs over 49ers;
Game Predicted: 49ers over Titans
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: 49ers
Score/Rolling Percentage: 1 for 3; 52.5% (21 for 40)
2019, Patriots over Rams;
Game Predicted: Saints over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 54% (20 for 37)
2018, Eagles over Patriots;
Game Predicted: Patriots over Vikings.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots
Score/Rolling Percentage: 1 for 3; 53% (18 for 34)
2017, Patriots over Falcons;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Patriots over Falcons.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots
Score/Rolling Percentage: 3 for 3; 55% (17 for 31)
2016, Broncos over Panthers;
Game Predicted: Patriots over Cardinals.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Panthers
Score/Rolling Percentage: 0 for 3; 50% (14 for 28)
2015, Patriots over Seahawks;
Game Predicted: Seahawks over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Seahawks
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 56% (14 for 25)
2014, Seahawks over Broncos;
Game Predicted: Seahawks over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Seahawks
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 55% (12 for 22)
2013, Ravens over 49ers;
Game Predicted: 49ers over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: 49ers
Score/Rolling Percentage: 1 for 3; 53% (10 for 19)
2012, Giants over Patriots;
Game Predicted: Giants over Ravens.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots
Score/Rolling Percentage: 1 for 3; 56% (9 for 16)
2011, Packers over Steelers;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Packers and Steelers
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Steelers
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 62% (8 for 13)
2010, Saints over Colts;
Game Predicted: Purposeful lack of prediction.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Colts
Score/Rolling Percentage: 0 for 1; 60% (6 for 10)
2009, Steelers over Cardinals;
Game Predicted: Steelers over Eagles.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Steelers
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 67% (6 for 9)
2008, Giants over Patriots;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Giants vs the Patriots
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 67% (4 for 6)
2007, Colts over Bears;
Game Predicted: Saints over Colts.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Colts
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 67% (2 for 3)
Here are the links to my previous predictions, analysis, winners, and losers (from most recent to my first post in 2007):
2026, Patriots/Broncos vs Rams/Seahawks;
Game Predicted: Patriots over Seahawks
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: TBD
Score/Rolling Percentage: x for x; xx.x% (33+x for 58)
2025, Eagles over Chiefs;
Game Predicted: Eagles over Bills
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Eagles
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 60.0% (33 for 55)
2024, Chiefs over 49ers;
Game Predicted: Chiefs over 49ers
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Chiefs
Score/Rolling Percentage: 3 for 3; 59.6% (31 for 52)
2023, Chiefs over Eagles;
Game Predicted: 49ers over Chiefs
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Chiefs
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 57.1% (28 for 49)
2022, Rams over Bengals;
Game Predicted: Chiefs over Rams
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Rams
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 56.5% (26 for 46)
2021, Bucaneers over Chiefs;
Game Predicted: Bucaneers over Chiefs
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Bucaneers
Score/Rolling Percentage: 3 for 3; 55.8% (24 for 43)
2020, Chiefs over 49ers;
Game Predicted: 49ers over Titans
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: 49ers
Score/Rolling Percentage: 1 for 3; 52.5% (21 for 40)
2019, Patriots over Rams;
Game Predicted: Saints over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 54% (20 for 37)
2018, Eagles over Patriots;
Game Predicted: Patriots over Vikings.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots
Score/Rolling Percentage: 1 for 3; 53% (18 for 34)
2017, Patriots over Falcons;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Patriots over Falcons.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots
Score/Rolling Percentage: 3 for 3; 55% (17 for 31)
2016, Broncos over Panthers;
Game Predicted: Patriots over Cardinals.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Panthers
Score/Rolling Percentage: 0 for 3; 50% (14 for 28)
2015, Patriots over Seahawks;
Game Predicted: Seahawks over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Seahawks
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 56% (14 for 25)
2014, Seahawks over Broncos;
Game Predicted: Seahawks over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Seahawks
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 55% (12 for 22)
2013, Ravens over 49ers;
Game Predicted: 49ers over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: 49ers
Score/Rolling Percentage: 1 for 3; 53% (10 for 19)
2012, Giants over Patriots;
Game Predicted: Giants over Ravens.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots
Score/Rolling Percentage: 1 for 3; 56% (9 for 16)
2011, Packers over Steelers;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Packers and Steelers
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Steelers
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 62% (8 for 13)
2010, Saints over Colts;
Game Predicted: Purposeful lack of prediction.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Colts
Score/Rolling Percentage: 0 for 1; 60% (6 for 10)
2009, Steelers over Cardinals;
Game Predicted: Steelers over Eagles.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Steelers
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 67% (6 for 9)
2008, Giants over Patriots;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Giants vs the Patriots
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 67% (4 for 6)
2007, Colts over Bears;
Game Predicted: Saints over Colts.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Colts
Score/Rolling Percentage: 2 for 3; 67% (2 for 3)
Sunday, January 06, 2019
2018-2019 NFL Playoff Preview
It's been a few years since I've attempted to predict the outcome of the playoffs prior to the kick-off of the first game (at least here). And it's not as though anyone still follows this blog. This is the dark corner of the internet where no one every goes. Accordingly, as this will simply be a repository of where I record my incorrect playoff predictions for myself so I will abridge the intro. On to the games:
Wild Card Round
AFC Saturday 1st game: Colts at Texans
Tough game to call. These teams faced each other twice in the regular season with both teams going 1-1. There was a whopping six point TOTAL point difference for both games, with the first going into overtime. Interestingly, it was the away team that won both games. Does that guarantee the Colts the win? No, but it's enough to bet on.
Winner: Colts
NFC Saturday 2nd game: Seahawks at Cowboys
The Seahawks faced off against the Cowboys once in the regular season in Seattle and the Seahawks took the win. The Seahawks beat 2 out of 3 playoff bound opponents at home but did not defeat a single playoff team on the road. Whereas the Cowboys defeated both playoff bound teams that dared enter Cowboy's Stadium. I don't think that the Cowboys will have too much difficulty disposing of Seattle.
Winner: Cowboys
AFC Sunday 1st game: Chargers at Ravens
I'd love to see the Texans win so the Patriots don't have to face either of these teams. That's highly unlikely, however. The Chargers and Ravens faced off in Baltimore week 16 with the Ravens handing the Chargers their only road loss of the year! That says something pretty amazing about both teams. So who walks away with the win this week? Not only did the Ravens have the easiest road to the post-season facing only 3 other playoff teams but I think the experienced leadership of the Chargers overcomes the Raven's novice QB. Chargers squeak by in a shootout.
Winner: Chargers
NFC Sunday 2nd game: Eagles at Bears
Not much to say here except that the Eagles have struggled all year! With QB issues and a defense that has struggled the Bears should coast into the next round behind their stifling Defense and up-and-comer Trubiski.
Winner: Bears
Divisional Round:
AFC Saturday 1st game: Colts at Chiefs
The Colts have been the hottest team in the NFL down the stretch. They started the season 1-5 and finished it 9-1 with their last loss coming week 13 on the road to the Jaguars. The Chiefs have played 6 games against playoff bound teams but only managed to win 2 of them: At the Chargers week 1 (losing at home to them week 11) and beating the Ravens at home week 14 (but only by 3 points). I expect Luck and the Colts to make a game of it, perhaps with a late push to nearly win the game; but don't expect 4th quarter heroics like we saw that last time these two teams met in the post season. The Chiefs Offense will be able to out-gun the Colts.
Winner: Chiefs
NFC Saturday 2nd game: Bears at Rams
A rematch of week 14 but switching stadiums. You heard it hear first: The Rams are the most overrated team in the NFL this year. The Rams faced-off against 6 teams in the playoffs losing both on the road and only taking 3 of 4 at home (Dropping one to the early-exit Eagles week 15). The secret to stopping the Rams is stopping Todd Gurley, a "secret" the Bears already proved they were more than capable of accomplishing. Expect another low-scoring, field position duel in which Chicago wins a ticket to the NFC Championship game for the first time since 2011.
Winner: Bears
AFC Sunday 1st game: Chargers at Patriots
Two teams known more for their offense this year than their defense. Two teams that both beat the Chiefs (Chargers 29-28 in KC with a last second 2 point conversion, Patriots 43-40 in Foxboro after leading 24-9 at the half.) The Charger's offense brought them the win, the Patriot's defense held on to their victory. Even though the Chargers only dropped 1 game on the road this year, the Patriots were perfect at home, and, as they say, "Defense wins championships." Edge goes to...
Winner: Patriots
NFC Sunday 2nd game: Cowboys at Saints
This appears to be the easiest game to predict out of the Divisional round. The Cowboys dropped 3 out of 4 games against play-off bound opponents on the road. Of course, their only win against a playoff team on the road was a 13-10 win over, you guessed it, the Saints! However, if any team in the NFC needs home field advantage, it's the 'Boys. It's tough to beat the same team twice on their own field. I don't expect this game to be close beyond the first quarter.
Winner: Saints
Championship Round:
NFC
Bears at Saints
This game may be the best game of the playoffs, including the Super Bowl. The Saint's vaunted offense facing off against the Bear's stifling defense! When dealing with a strength vs strength we have to look at weakness vs weakness. The Saint's defense has been inconsistent at best. The same could be said for the Bear's offense however, the likelihood that Trubisky will have a short field is better due to the Bears +9 takeaway stat over the Saints. This will be a close one and points off of turnovers will be huge.
Winner: Bears
AFC
Patriots at Chiefs
There are two x-factors in this game and they aren't necessarily whom you expect. Mahomes has been playing amazingly, setting or tying records all season. Brady ISN'T the other x-factor, however. It's Belichick. Jedi Master (or Sith Lord depending on how you feel about the Patriots) Belichick has an entire season of film on Mahomes at this point. Plus their victory over them week 6 and an additional playoff game. Bill has the intelligent players necessary to sufficiently confuse Mahomes presnap and the Chiefs defense won't be able to stop Brady & co. The only team that can prevent the Patriots from moving on in this game is the Patriots.
Winner: Patriots
Super Bowl
Bears vs Patriots
1985 revisited! But this time it'll be far more competitive. Similarly to when the Bears took on the Colts in 2006 it will be the Bear's defense that has gotten them to the big dance. The biggest difference is, this time the Bears aren't lead by Rex Grossman, but rather the exciting Mitchel Trubisky! The Patriots won't have faced many notable defenses getting to this point in the playoffs. The Bears will have faced some even more potent offenses than the Patriots. The result? Brady joins the ranks of Jim Kelly with four Super Bowl losses and the Patriots attain sole possession of most Super Bowl losses by a team with 6. That's right, I'm predicting the Bears hoist the Lombardi trophy for the first time in 33 years!
Winner: Bears
This year should be a GREAT set of playoff games with an exciting Super Bowl. I hope I'm wrong on the final outcome but I call it like I see it.
Wild Card Round
AFC Saturday 1st game: Colts at Texans
Tough game to call. These teams faced each other twice in the regular season with both teams going 1-1. There was a whopping six point TOTAL point difference for both games, with the first going into overtime. Interestingly, it was the away team that won both games. Does that guarantee the Colts the win? No, but it's enough to bet on.
Winner: Colts
NFC Saturday 2nd game: Seahawks at Cowboys
The Seahawks faced off against the Cowboys once in the regular season in Seattle and the Seahawks took the win. The Seahawks beat 2 out of 3 playoff bound opponents at home but did not defeat a single playoff team on the road. Whereas the Cowboys defeated both playoff bound teams that dared enter Cowboy's Stadium. I don't think that the Cowboys will have too much difficulty disposing of Seattle.
Winner: Cowboys
AFC Sunday 1st game: Chargers at Ravens
I'd love to see the Texans win so the Patriots don't have to face either of these teams. That's highly unlikely, however. The Chargers and Ravens faced off in Baltimore week 16 with the Ravens handing the Chargers their only road loss of the year! That says something pretty amazing about both teams. So who walks away with the win this week? Not only did the Ravens have the easiest road to the post-season facing only 3 other playoff teams but I think the experienced leadership of the Chargers overcomes the Raven's novice QB. Chargers squeak by in a shootout.
Winner: Chargers
NFC Sunday 2nd game: Eagles at Bears
Not much to say here except that the Eagles have struggled all year! With QB issues and a defense that has struggled the Bears should coast into the next round behind their stifling Defense and up-and-comer Trubiski.
Winner: Bears
Divisional Round:
AFC Saturday 1st game: Colts at Chiefs
The Colts have been the hottest team in the NFL down the stretch. They started the season 1-5 and finished it 9-1 with their last loss coming week 13 on the road to the Jaguars. The Chiefs have played 6 games against playoff bound teams but only managed to win 2 of them: At the Chargers week 1 (losing at home to them week 11) and beating the Ravens at home week 14 (but only by 3 points). I expect Luck and the Colts to make a game of it, perhaps with a late push to nearly win the game; but don't expect 4th quarter heroics like we saw that last time these two teams met in the post season. The Chiefs Offense will be able to out-gun the Colts.
Winner: Chiefs
NFC Saturday 2nd game: Bears at Rams
A rematch of week 14 but switching stadiums. You heard it hear first: The Rams are the most overrated team in the NFL this year. The Rams faced-off against 6 teams in the playoffs losing both on the road and only taking 3 of 4 at home (Dropping one to the early-exit Eagles week 15). The secret to stopping the Rams is stopping Todd Gurley, a "secret" the Bears already proved they were more than capable of accomplishing. Expect another low-scoring, field position duel in which Chicago wins a ticket to the NFC Championship game for the first time since 2011.
Winner: Bears
AFC Sunday 1st game: Chargers at Patriots
Two teams known more for their offense this year than their defense. Two teams that both beat the Chiefs (Chargers 29-28 in KC with a last second 2 point conversion, Patriots 43-40 in Foxboro after leading 24-9 at the half.) The Charger's offense brought them the win, the Patriot's defense held on to their victory. Even though the Chargers only dropped 1 game on the road this year, the Patriots were perfect at home, and, as they say, "Defense wins championships." Edge goes to...
Winner: Patriots
NFC Sunday 2nd game: Cowboys at Saints
This appears to be the easiest game to predict out of the Divisional round. The Cowboys dropped 3 out of 4 games against play-off bound opponents on the road. Of course, their only win against a playoff team on the road was a 13-10 win over, you guessed it, the Saints! However, if any team in the NFC needs home field advantage, it's the 'Boys. It's tough to beat the same team twice on their own field. I don't expect this game to be close beyond the first quarter.
Winner: Saints
Championship Round:
NFC
Bears at Saints
This game may be the best game of the playoffs, including the Super Bowl. The Saint's vaunted offense facing off against the Bear's stifling defense! When dealing with a strength vs strength we have to look at weakness vs weakness. The Saint's defense has been inconsistent at best. The same could be said for the Bear's offense however, the likelihood that Trubisky will have a short field is better due to the Bears +9 takeaway stat over the Saints. This will be a close one and points off of turnovers will be huge.
Winner: Bears
AFC
Patriots at Chiefs
There are two x-factors in this game and they aren't necessarily whom you expect. Mahomes has been playing amazingly, setting or tying records all season. Brady ISN'T the other x-factor, however. It's Belichick. Jedi Master (or Sith Lord depending on how you feel about the Patriots) Belichick has an entire season of film on Mahomes at this point. Plus their victory over them week 6 and an additional playoff game. Bill has the intelligent players necessary to sufficiently confuse Mahomes presnap and the Chiefs defense won't be able to stop Brady & co. The only team that can prevent the Patriots from moving on in this game is the Patriots.
Winner: Patriots
Super Bowl
Bears vs Patriots
1985 revisited! But this time it'll be far more competitive. Similarly to when the Bears took on the Colts in 2006 it will be the Bear's defense that has gotten them to the big dance. The biggest difference is, this time the Bears aren't lead by Rex Grossman, but rather the exciting Mitchel Trubisky! The Patriots won't have faced many notable defenses getting to this point in the playoffs. The Bears will have faced some even more potent offenses than the Patriots. The result? Brady joins the ranks of Jim Kelly with four Super Bowl losses and the Patriots attain sole possession of most Super Bowl losses by a team with 6. That's right, I'm predicting the Bears hoist the Lombardi trophy for the first time in 33 years!
Winner: Bears
This year should be a GREAT set of playoff games with an exciting Super Bowl. I hope I'm wrong on the final outcome but I call it like I see it.
Sunday, January 21, 2018
All Four Super Bowl Previews XII
Anyone who knows me knows that the NFL Playoff season is my favorite time of the year! It's like Christmas every weekend! (If you'd like to see how I've fared with my predictions over the past eleven years, you'll find them listed at the bottom of this post along with links if you're interested in my previous analysis.)
Two years ago I went 0 for 3. I rebounded nicely last year by correctly predicting the Super Bowl match-up and the eventual winner! Of course, I never could have predicted the manner in which the Patriots would win but it sure was thrilling! Down 25 points with just over 17 minutes left in the game the Patriots forced and won in overtime! Coming into last year I was at a mediocre 50%. Going 3 for 3 last year has elevated me to 56%! On to the predictions:
While last year's Championship Sunday included QBs the likes of Brady, Reothlisberger, Rogers, & Ryan; this year's match-ups pits three QBs who have a combined 5 playoff starts (Bortles, Foles, & Keenum) and one with 5 Super Bowl Wins!
Alright, here are this year's games from least compelling* to most: *("Compelling" refers to how interested an average viewer might be and which game the networks are hoping for)
Jaguars vs Eagles
There is very little to be excited about this game. While this game contains two teams that have never hoisted the Lombardi Trophy, it doesn't have the same emotional draw as Jax vs Minn because he Eagles have had success without the gut-wrenching close calls that the Vikings have had. Additionally, this game promises to be merely average. The QB for the Eagles, Nick Foles, would be starting his 6th game of the season having taken over for Carson Wentz late in the game week 14. The Jaguar's QB, Blake Bortles, started the season ranked 21st among QBs just ahead of the likes of Jay Cutler. The Eagles are here due to the work of Wentz and the offense during the regular season and the Jaguars are here because of their defense. In order for Bortles and the Jaguars to have an opportunity to face the Eagles they had to overcome the Bills, Steelers, and Patriots - all of which were upsets. If the Jaguars can manage to get by TB12, Big Ben, and the Bills it'd be difficult to pick against them versus a team dealing with a back up QB and other major injuries.
Winner: Jaguars
Losers: Fantasy Football fanatics
Patriots vs Eagles
A rematch of Super Bowl XXXIX is a decent selling point. Of course, there's only one player & one coach who also participated in Super Bowl XXXIX. Another compelling aspect of this game is that those "in the know" have been asking "Who will win the Super Bowl, the Eagles or the Patriots?" since week 4. However, this is not the match up that we were hoping for. The Patriots are on the rise while the Eagles are on the decline. Foles has done a good job of getting his team this far following Wentz's injury however, they've not been playing at the same level late in the season. While the Patriots (apart from the shocking loss to Miami) have been playing some of their best football of the year having surrendered 17 pts or fewer 9 out of their last 12 games! If this is the contest, even with the mysterious injury to TB12's throwing hand, expect Brady, red gloves and all, to win his unprecedented 6th Super Bowl.
Winner: Patriots
Loser: Roger Goodell & Patriot haters everywhere
Jaguars vs Vikings
NBC would be thrilled to work the "Give someone else a chance" angle of this match-up. The Jaguars have never been to the big dance, and, while the Vikings have competed for four NFL Championships, they've lost all four; the most recent one being 41 years ago in Super Bowl XI! However, unless the public enjoys a low-scoring defensive battle (which they typically don't) that's where the compelling aspect of this game ends. This would likely be the lowest scoring Super Bowl ever (beating out Super Bowl VII where the Dolphins defeated the Redskins by a score of 21-7). The Vikings sometimes struggle to move the ball but have the number one defense in the league giving up the fewest points and second most total yards all season. The Jaguars rank 1st in offensive rushing yards but 17th in passing yards. They surrendered the fewest total yards per game and second fewest points. This game would be two powerhouse defenses vs two struggling offenses. The final score might be 9-6.
Winner: Vikings
Loser: Fans that like games that score over 17 total points
Patriots vs Vikings
I believe this will be the most compelling game. I also believe this is the game we will see. Oddly enough, with the remaining quarterbacks in the playoffs, Brady vs Keenum will provide the best game for the average viewer. The NFC Championship game should be dubbed "The Battle of the Back-ups!" Keenum has played the entire season but that's because the Vikings starting QB, Sam Bradford (remember him?), injured his knee in the preseason. Additional eyeballs will be drawn into this match-up due to the story line behind the possibility of a Viking win over the Patriots. With the heartbreaking losses the Vikings have suffered in the playoffs combined with their unlikely victory vs the Saints juxtaposed with the unrivaled success of the Patriots will have viewers salivating at the chance to see if the up-and-coming Vikings can win their first Super Bowl over the vaunted perennial favorites. This would be a close game coming down to one score at the end of the game. The biggest difference may be that the Patriots players would be coached well enough to know to let a WR catch and tackle him inbounds the ball with 10 seconds left in the game rather than hurling themselves at him allowing him to score the winning TD. Unfortunately, in this contest, the majority of viewers will be disappointed because experience will win out.
Winner: Patriots
Losers: The fans of the other 31 teams in the league
Those are my thoughts, what are yours? Here are the links to my previous predictions, analysis, winners, and losers (In the past they've been oldest to newest, but any readers that I may still have will likely be more interested in my more recent predictions so I will reverse the order):
2017, Patriots over Falcons;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Patriots over Falcons.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots
2016, Broncos over Panthers;
Game Predicted: Patriots over Cardinals.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Panthers
2015, Patriots over Seahawks;
Game Predicted: Seahawks over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Seahawks
2014, Seahawks over Broncos;
Game Predicted: Seahawks over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Seahawks
2013, Ravens over 49ers;
Game Predicted: 49ers over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: 49ers
2012, Giants over Patriots;
Game Predicted: Giants over Ravens.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots
2011, Packers over Steelers;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Packers and Steelers
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Steelers;
2010, Saints over Colts;
Game Predicted: Purposeful lack of prediction.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Colts;
2009, Steelers over Cardinals;
Game Predicted: Steelers over Eagles.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Steelers;
2008, Giants over Patriots;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Giants vs the Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots;
2007, Colts over Bears;
Game Predicted: Saints over Colts.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Colts;
Two years ago I went 0 for 3. I rebounded nicely last year by correctly predicting the Super Bowl match-up and the eventual winner! Of course, I never could have predicted the manner in which the Patriots would win but it sure was thrilling! Down 25 points with just over 17 minutes left in the game the Patriots forced and won in overtime! Coming into last year I was at a mediocre 50%. Going 3 for 3 last year has elevated me to 56%! On to the predictions:
While last year's Championship Sunday included QBs the likes of Brady, Reothlisberger, Rogers, & Ryan; this year's match-ups pits three QBs who have a combined 5 playoff starts (Bortles, Foles, & Keenum) and one with 5 Super Bowl Wins!
Alright, here are this year's games from least compelling* to most: *("Compelling" refers to how interested an average viewer might be and which game the networks are hoping for)
Jaguars vs Eagles
There is very little to be excited about this game. While this game contains two teams that have never hoisted the Lombardi Trophy, it doesn't have the same emotional draw as Jax vs Minn because he Eagles have had success without the gut-wrenching close calls that the Vikings have had. Additionally, this game promises to be merely average. The QB for the Eagles, Nick Foles, would be starting his 6th game of the season having taken over for Carson Wentz late in the game week 14. The Jaguar's QB, Blake Bortles, started the season ranked 21st among QBs just ahead of the likes of Jay Cutler. The Eagles are here due to the work of Wentz and the offense during the regular season and the Jaguars are here because of their defense. In order for Bortles and the Jaguars to have an opportunity to face the Eagles they had to overcome the Bills, Steelers, and Patriots - all of which were upsets. If the Jaguars can manage to get by TB12, Big Ben, and the Bills it'd be difficult to pick against them versus a team dealing with a back up QB and other major injuries.
Winner: Jaguars
Losers: Fantasy Football fanatics
Patriots vs Eagles
A rematch of Super Bowl XXXIX is a decent selling point. Of course, there's only one player & one coach who also participated in Super Bowl XXXIX. Another compelling aspect of this game is that those "in the know" have been asking "Who will win the Super Bowl, the Eagles or the Patriots?" since week 4. However, this is not the match up that we were hoping for. The Patriots are on the rise while the Eagles are on the decline. Foles has done a good job of getting his team this far following Wentz's injury however, they've not been playing at the same level late in the season. While the Patriots (apart from the shocking loss to Miami) have been playing some of their best football of the year having surrendered 17 pts or fewer 9 out of their last 12 games! If this is the contest, even with the mysterious injury to TB12's throwing hand, expect Brady, red gloves and all, to win his unprecedented 6th Super Bowl.
Winner: Patriots
Loser: Roger Goodell & Patriot haters everywhere
Jaguars vs Vikings
NBC would be thrilled to work the "Give someone else a chance" angle of this match-up. The Jaguars have never been to the big dance, and, while the Vikings have competed for four NFL Championships, they've lost all four; the most recent one being 41 years ago in Super Bowl XI! However, unless the public enjoys a low-scoring defensive battle (which they typically don't) that's where the compelling aspect of this game ends. This would likely be the lowest scoring Super Bowl ever (beating out Super Bowl VII where the Dolphins defeated the Redskins by a score of 21-7). The Vikings sometimes struggle to move the ball but have the number one defense in the league giving up the fewest points and second most total yards all season. The Jaguars rank 1st in offensive rushing yards but 17th in passing yards. They surrendered the fewest total yards per game and second fewest points. This game would be two powerhouse defenses vs two struggling offenses. The final score might be 9-6.
Winner: Vikings
Loser: Fans that like games that score over 17 total points
Patriots vs Vikings
I believe this will be the most compelling game. I also believe this is the game we will see. Oddly enough, with the remaining quarterbacks in the playoffs, Brady vs Keenum will provide the best game for the average viewer. The NFC Championship game should be dubbed "The Battle of the Back-ups!" Keenum has played the entire season but that's because the Vikings starting QB, Sam Bradford (remember him?), injured his knee in the preseason. Additional eyeballs will be drawn into this match-up due to the story line behind the possibility of a Viking win over the Patriots. With the heartbreaking losses the Vikings have suffered in the playoffs combined with their unlikely victory vs the Saints juxtaposed with the unrivaled success of the Patriots will have viewers salivating at the chance to see if the up-and-coming Vikings can win their first Super Bowl over the vaunted perennial favorites. This would be a close game coming down to one score at the end of the game. The biggest difference may be that the Patriots players would be coached well enough to know to let a WR catch and tackle him inbounds the ball with 10 seconds left in the game rather than hurling themselves at him allowing him to score the winning TD. Unfortunately, in this contest, the majority of viewers will be disappointed because experience will win out.
Winner: Patriots
Losers: The fans of the other 31 teams in the league
Those are my thoughts, what are yours? Here are the links to my previous predictions, analysis, winners, and losers (In the past they've been oldest to newest, but any readers that I may still have will likely be more interested in my more recent predictions so I will reverse the order):
2017, Patriots over Falcons;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Patriots over Falcons.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots
2016, Broncos over Panthers;
Game Predicted: Patriots over Cardinals.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Panthers
2015, Patriots over Seahawks;
Game Predicted: Seahawks over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Seahawks
2014, Seahawks over Broncos;
Game Predicted: Seahawks over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Seahawks
2013, Ravens over 49ers;
Game Predicted: 49ers over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: 49ers
2012, Giants over Patriots;
Game Predicted: Giants over Ravens.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots
2011, Packers over Steelers;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Packers and Steelers
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Steelers;
2010, Saints over Colts;
Game Predicted: Purposeful lack of prediction.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Colts;
2009, Steelers over Cardinals;
Game Predicted: Steelers over Eagles.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Steelers;
2008, Giants over Patriots;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Giants vs the Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots;
2007, Colts over Bears;
Game Predicted: Saints over Colts.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Colts;
Sunday, January 22, 2017
All Four Super Bowl Previews XI
Episode 11 of my favorite post of the year! Championship Sunday is my favorite football weekend so it makes sense that the post that ruminates about it would be as well! (If you'd like to see how I've fared with my predictions over the past ten years, you'll find them listed at the bottom of this post along with links if you're interested in my previous analysis.)
My accuracy rating took a major hit last year as managed to go 0 for 3: I predicted both Championship games incorrectly and got the winner of the actual Super Bowl game wrong too. I fell from 56% all the way down to 50%! Ouch! Hopefully, I'll rebound this year! On to the predictions:
I want to start by saying that these two games are incredibly difficult to predict. I'm vacillating greatly on who I'm going to choose. Also, this may be the single greatest grouping of QBs in the Championship games ever!
Alright, here are this year's games from least compelling* to most: *("Compelling" refers to how interested an average viewer might be and which game the networks are hoping for)
Steelers vs Falcons
When the potential QBs who could play in the Big Game are made up of Brady, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, and Ryan, deservedly or not, Ryan is going to get the least celebration. While the Falcons have had an amazing offense this year they've flown under the radar having been overshadowed by the Cowboys & Packers in their own Conference. The Steelers have had a rocky season, losing to the Cowboys and the Dolphins while nearly giving the Browns their second win of the year. The Steelers are the worst team still in the playoffs. This game pits the worst offense still in the running against the worst defense still in the running. The opposite is not true, while the Falcons have the best offense in the playoffs, the Steelers D isn't strong enough to stop them.
Winner: Falcons
Losers: All of the companies who saved some money by having their ads air after half time
Patriots vs Falcons
Between people not understanding the historical significance of Brady playing in his 7th Super Bowl and not recognizing just how good Ryan is this game won't have much viewership. Even though it won't garner the same level of interest as the next two games This is the game we will have the pleasure of seeing. This match-up ranks higher than Pittsburgh v Atlanta because this game pits the top two offenses against each other. The same can't be said about their defenses. The Patriots defense has been fantastic this year while the Falcons have struggled. Atlanta has needed their over-powering offense to win having given up at least 4 touchdowns 9 times this year! You can't allow Brady to score 28 points and think you are going to win. I'd say you can't give Rodgers that many points and think you'll win either, except that they did defeating Green Bay by 1 point during the regular season. That doesn't happen twice. We won't see this game but if we did, Atlanta's D can't stop Brady enough times to win.
Winner: Patriots
Loser: Roger Goodell
Steelers vs Packers
FOX is chomping at the bit in the hopes that they might have two weeks to promote Big Ben vs Discount Double Check Rodgers. Beyond the story of the QBs there's also the "rematch" angle of Super Bowl XLV (45) where Rodgers and the Packers edged out Ben and the Steelers by 6 points. Ben wants revenge, Rodgers wants his second ring. Two storied franchises with stalwart fan bases facing off for the Lombardi Trophy. These two teams are also somewhat evenly matched. Both have middle of the road defenses and somewhat above average offenses. The Steelers D is better than the Packers, while the Packers offense is better than the Steelers. This game could be a nail-biter where Rodgers needs to lead a late drive to retake the lead before Big Ben tosses a game ending INT attempting his own miracle come-back.
Winner: Packers
Loser: Fans of the other teams in the NFC or AFC North. These fans can be unbearable as it is even without a Championship
Patriots vs Packers
This game has the best story-line: The King of the NFL seeking to secure his legacy against the heir-apparent looking to dethrone the reining regent. This is also a rematch: Super Bowl XXXI (31) in 1997 when Favre out gunned Bledsoe 35-21. While not the same major players, and therefore not quite as compelling as Steelers v Packers but who can pass up on a Brady v Rodgers match-up? They've only met one time in the past and this may be their only opportunity as they aren't scheduled to meet in the regular season until 2019 (Brady would be 42 and may be retired by then). So what will happen? Will Brady defeat the next QB destined to be in the "best ever" conversation? Yes, and he will set himself apart as the GOAT once and for all. Here's why: "Do your job." This is the mantra of the Patriots. Rodgers strangely, has a better passer rating when he is outside of the pocket. This means that the play has broken down and it's a scramble drill. The Patriots outside defensive linemen will contain Rodgers not allowing him to escape to where he is the most effective. Brady will be able to dissect the Packer's mediocre defense for his 5th (and possibly not last) Super Bowl ring.
Winner: Patriots
Losers: Joe Montana
Those are my thoughts, what are yours? Here are the links to my previous predictions, analysis, winners, and losers:
2007, Colts over Bears;
Game Predicted: Saints over Colts.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Colts;
2008, Giants over Patriots;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Giants vs the Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots;
2009, Steelers over Cardinals;
Game Predicted: Steelers over Eagles.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Steelers;
2010, Saints over Colts;
Game Predicted: Purposeful lack of prediction.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Colts;
2011, Packers over Steelers;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Packers and Steelers
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Steelers;
2012, Giants over Patriots;
Game Predicted: Giants over Ravens.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots
2013, Ravens over 49ers;
Game Predicted: 49ers over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: 49ers
2014, Seahawks over Broncos;
Game Predicted: Seahawks over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Seahawks
2015, Patriots over Seahawks;
Game Predicted: Seahawks over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Seahawks
2016, Broncos over Panthers;
Game Predicted: Patriots over Cardinals.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Panthers
My accuracy rating took a major hit last year as managed to go 0 for 3: I predicted both Championship games incorrectly and got the winner of the actual Super Bowl game wrong too. I fell from 56% all the way down to 50%! Ouch! Hopefully, I'll rebound this year! On to the predictions:
I want to start by saying that these two games are incredibly difficult to predict. I'm vacillating greatly on who I'm going to choose. Also, this may be the single greatest grouping of QBs in the Championship games ever!
Alright, here are this year's games from least compelling* to most: *("Compelling" refers to how interested an average viewer might be and which game the networks are hoping for)
Steelers vs Falcons
When the potential QBs who could play in the Big Game are made up of Brady, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, and Ryan, deservedly or not, Ryan is going to get the least celebration. While the Falcons have had an amazing offense this year they've flown under the radar having been overshadowed by the Cowboys & Packers in their own Conference. The Steelers have had a rocky season, losing to the Cowboys and the Dolphins while nearly giving the Browns their second win of the year. The Steelers are the worst team still in the playoffs. This game pits the worst offense still in the running against the worst defense still in the running. The opposite is not true, while the Falcons have the best offense in the playoffs, the Steelers D isn't strong enough to stop them.
Winner: Falcons
Losers: All of the companies who saved some money by having their ads air after half time
Patriots vs Falcons
Between people not understanding the historical significance of Brady playing in his 7th Super Bowl and not recognizing just how good Ryan is this game won't have much viewership. Even though it won't garner the same level of interest as the next two games This is the game we will have the pleasure of seeing. This match-up ranks higher than Pittsburgh v Atlanta because this game pits the top two offenses against each other. The same can't be said about their defenses. The Patriots defense has been fantastic this year while the Falcons have struggled. Atlanta has needed their over-powering offense to win having given up at least 4 touchdowns 9 times this year! You can't allow Brady to score 28 points and think you are going to win. I'd say you can't give Rodgers that many points and think you'll win either, except that they did defeating Green Bay by 1 point during the regular season. That doesn't happen twice. We won't see this game but if we did, Atlanta's D can't stop Brady enough times to win.
Winner: Patriots
Loser: Roger Goodell
Steelers vs Packers
FOX is chomping at the bit in the hopes that they might have two weeks to promote Big Ben vs Discount Double Check Rodgers. Beyond the story of the QBs there's also the "rematch" angle of Super Bowl XLV (45) where Rodgers and the Packers edged out Ben and the Steelers by 6 points. Ben wants revenge, Rodgers wants his second ring. Two storied franchises with stalwart fan bases facing off for the Lombardi Trophy. These two teams are also somewhat evenly matched. Both have middle of the road defenses and somewhat above average offenses. The Steelers D is better than the Packers, while the Packers offense is better than the Steelers. This game could be a nail-biter where Rodgers needs to lead a late drive to retake the lead before Big Ben tosses a game ending INT attempting his own miracle come-back.
Winner: Packers
Loser: Fans of the other teams in the NFC or AFC North. These fans can be unbearable as it is even without a Championship
Patriots vs Packers
This game has the best story-line: The King of the NFL seeking to secure his legacy against the heir-apparent looking to dethrone the reining regent. This is also a rematch: Super Bowl XXXI (31) in 1997 when Favre out gunned Bledsoe 35-21. While not the same major players, and therefore not quite as compelling as Steelers v Packers but who can pass up on a Brady v Rodgers match-up? They've only met one time in the past and this may be their only opportunity as they aren't scheduled to meet in the regular season until 2019 (Brady would be 42 and may be retired by then). So what will happen? Will Brady defeat the next QB destined to be in the "best ever" conversation? Yes, and he will set himself apart as the GOAT once and for all. Here's why: "Do your job." This is the mantra of the Patriots. Rodgers strangely, has a better passer rating when he is outside of the pocket. This means that the play has broken down and it's a scramble drill. The Patriots outside defensive linemen will contain Rodgers not allowing him to escape to where he is the most effective. Brady will be able to dissect the Packer's mediocre defense for his 5th (and possibly not last) Super Bowl ring.
Winner: Patriots
Losers: Joe Montana
Those are my thoughts, what are yours? Here are the links to my previous predictions, analysis, winners, and losers:
2007, Colts over Bears;
Game Predicted: Saints over Colts.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Colts;
2008, Giants over Patriots;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Giants vs the Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots;
2009, Steelers over Cardinals;
Game Predicted: Steelers over Eagles.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Steelers;
2010, Saints over Colts;
Game Predicted: Purposeful lack of prediction.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Colts;
2011, Packers over Steelers;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Packers and Steelers
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Steelers;
2012, Giants over Patriots;
Game Predicted: Giants over Ravens.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots
2013, Ravens over 49ers;
Game Predicted: 49ers over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: 49ers
2014, Seahawks over Broncos;
Game Predicted: Seahawks over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Seahawks
2015, Patriots over Seahawks;
Game Predicted: Seahawks over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Seahawks
2016, Broncos over Panthers;
Game Predicted: Patriots over Cardinals.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Panthers
Friday, January 13, 2017
2016-2017 NFL Playoff Preview
I've decided that the NFL season gets shorter every year, and it's reached the "too short" point. Probably the funniest part of this year's post is that I'm stressing to get it done before the first game starts, as though anyone will read this. Anyway, here's the perennial look back at how I did last year:
AFC:
Chiefs v Texans: Prediction Chiefs, actual Chiefs
Steelers v Bengals: Prediction Steelers, actual Steelers
Chiefs v Patriots: Prediction Patriots, actual Patriots
Steelers v Broncos: Prediction Steelers, actual Broncos
Steelers v Patriots: Prediction Patriots, actual Broncos
NFC:
Seahawks v Vikings: Prediction Seahawks, actual Seahawks
Packers v Redskins: Prediction Packers, actual Packers
Packers v Cardinals: Prediction Cardinals, actual Cardinals
Seahawks v Panthers: Prediction Panthers, actual Panthers
Cardinals v Panthers: Prediction Cardinals, actual Panthers
Super Bowl
Cardinals v Patriots: Prediction Patriots, actual Broncos
While neither of my predicted Super Bowl teams made it to the big game, I did alright with the games leading up to it. And as a person who isn't particularly fond of Manning or Newton last year's Championship game couldn't have ended any better: Neither QB played well and Denver's Defense allowed Peyton to limp into retirement with his second Ring - tying his far less talented brother. So I got 64% right (7 out of 11). That's 1 better than last year. Let's see if I can get one better this year!
I got 100% last year's wild card weekend. That's not easy to replicate but here we go (I'll review them in the order in which they will be played):
AFC Saturday 1st game Raiders at Texans
Until about two weeks ago, the Raiders were the second scariest team in the AFC and were making a play at 1st overall. Then Carr broke his leg and their back up, McQloin, injured his non-throwing shoulder. They fell from fighting for first to fifth. While the Texans have had a mediocre season at best they have the good fortune of facing a decimated Raiders offense. Texans walk through this one.
Winner: Texans
NFC Saturday 2nd game Lions at Seahawks
This is a fairly evenly matched game: Two teams with better than average defenses playing with QBs who have been working with injuries this year. That means what might typically be considered a minor difference may end up being a major in the outcome. While Wilson dealt with a more serious injured earlier in the year, Stafford suffered a finger dislocation towards the end of it. Stafford's injury is on his throwing hand and has impacted his numbers - and the overall success of the team - ever since. The Lions finished the season on a three game losing streak (Giants, Cowboys, Packers). All three losses were to playoff teams but one would hope for at least one victory (which could have awarded them the division). Another factor to consider is the location. A few years ago, when the Seahawks won their division with a losing record they still went on to win their first playoff game because it was at home. Seattle is a difficult place to visit and win. I think the combination of 12th man pushes the Seahawks over the top for the win.
Winner: Seahawks
AFC Sunday 1st game Dolphins at Steelers
I don't put much stock in the Dolphins. They started the year 1-4 (their only win coming against the hapless 1-15 Browns) and faced 6 teams all year that finished the season .500 or better. The Dolphins went 1-5 in those six games. I feel like this playoff appearance is a consolation prize for being the best of the worst of the AFC. The Steelers should have little difficulty ending the Dolphins playoff hopes.
Winner: Steelers
NFC Sunday 2nd game: Giants at Packers
In typical Giant fashion, they had flashes of brilliance and moments of utter confusion. They handed the vaunted Cowboys 2 of their 3 losses this year but then floundered against the likes of the mediocre Vikings. That type of inconsistent play has plague Eli his entire career (see: defeating the undefeated Patriots & starting a season with more interceptions than receptions). That's one thing that makes predicting Giant games so difficult. Especially when playing against a QB who has a higher passer rating when he is outside of the pocket than when inside!
Winner: Packers
Divisional Round:
AFC Saturday 1st game Seahawks at Falcons
This is a fascinating match-up. Falcons over-powering offense (#1) vs Seahawks stingy defense (#3). What makes this more interesting than the possibility of a Falcons v Patriots (#1 defense) match-up is that these two teams are equally weak on the opposite side of the ball (Seahawks #18 in offense, Falcons #27 in defense). While they say that defenses win championships and one, therefore, should side with the Seahawks, most of their great defense came against flat-out bad teams. The Falcon's offense, on the other hand, fared much better against strong defenses than the Seahawk's defense did vs stronger offenses. Accordingly, we predict the Falcons will move on to the Championship round.
Winner: Falcons
AFC Saturday 2nd game Texans at Patriots
Once we enter the divisional round, the Texans will be the worst team remaining in the playoffs. Even if they had JJ Watt, the Texans would have a difficult time stopping TB12 and the Patriots. In order to keep the game competitive, the Texans will have to have at least two defensive/special team TDs. While the Patriots have been giving fans heart palpitations late in games recently, I don't think they will collapse to that extent. Look for Belichick's crew to waltz past the vastly over-paid Osweiler and the Texans.
Winner: Patriots
NFC Sunday 1st game Steelers at Chiefs
"Don't be too proud if this [bye-week] terror you've constructed." If not for the devastating injury to Derek Carr the Chiefs would be sitting in 5th place and traveling to Foxboro this week after defeating the Texans rather than hosting the Steelers. The Chiefs only dropped two games at home this year but got embarrassed in Pittsburgh losing by 29 points. The Steelers had an easy trip into the post season, at least, on paper. They won their last 7 games against teams that won less than 1/3 of their games (31-64-1) and even faced a playoff team during that run. However, they didn't win convincingly, finishing out the season with four wins of only one score (and nearly allowing the Browns to notch a second win). Those factors make this a difficult game to evaluate. Additionally, I'm uncomfortable choosing all of the home teams and, though you've not read my Packers/Cowboys pick - that's what I've done. If I had to pick a visiting team to win, it would be the Steelers. Having said that, I won't be picking the Steelers.
Winner: Chiefs
NFC Sunday 2nd game Packers at Cowboys
Well put me in a time machine and zap me back to the 90s! I love this match-up: Favre vs Aikman - I mean Rogers vs Prescott. These two teams faced a few of the same opponents this year but without providing a definitive conclusion as to which team is clearly better. The Cowboys lost to teams that the Packers defeated and vice versa. As long as the Cowboys can keep Rogers in the pocket they will win easily. If they are unable to contain Rogers, the 'Boys will still walk out with the win but it will be much closer.
Winner: Cowboys
Championship Round:
AFC
Chiefs at Patriots
Out of all of the AFC teams, the Chiefs are the team I didn't want to face (after Carr's injury. Prior it was the Raiders). They have a decent defense and an adequate offense. They match-up well against the Patriots. The Chiefs, however, have the misfortune of facing the team ranked #1 in points allowed and #3 in points scored (and remember, for the majority of the year they've been without either Brady or Gronk - and for some games - without both!) The Chiefs will put up a fight early, but the game will not be in doubt late.
Winner: Patriots
NFC
Falcons at Cowboys
Picking the home team for every game is like choosing all chalk in the NCAA March Madness Tournament - and, for as much as I want to choose the Falcons, I simply can't. While the top four contenders for NFL MVP are still paying at this point (Brady, Prescott, Elliot, & Ryan) it is the likely front runner for MVP (Ryan) who will walk out of Dallas with the L. My gut tells me that Dallas will lose this game. The 'Boys have had to score 24 points in order to walk away with a win for the majority of the season. That doesn't bode well for a team playing this late in the post-season. However, when I looked at the Falcon's defense they ranked 27th in the league for points against. Dallas is 5th. I'm not ignoring the fact that the Seahawks (whom I've picked to lose to the Falcons) are 3rd in defense The major difference is that the Falcons are 1st in offensive scoring, the Cowboys are 5th (the Seahawks wallow in 18th). I'm forced to predict the Cowboys as the victors.
Winner: Cowboys
Super Bowl
Cowboys vs Patriots
I feel like I've predicted Cowboys v Patriots a number of times prior to this. And I have: Once before. I've also predicted Falcons v Patriots once in the past as well. Nearly every time the Patriots are in the playoffs I've chosen them to make it to the Super Bowl. I'm fairly confident this year that they will advance, once again, to the Big Dance but I'm not excited about facing either the Falcons or the Cowboys. All in all, I'd rather see the Cowboys who have zero experience against a Belichickian defense. I believe that Brady will prove himself once and for all the GOAT in earning his 5th (and, astonishingly, not necessarily last) Super Bowl victory.
Winner: Patriots
So I've probably cursed the Patriots to a heart-breaking, last minute loss at the hands of the Seahawks! I still very much enjoy the process of evaluating the post-season teams and predicting the outcome of all of the games. I selected no upsets this year which doesn't sit well with me but we shall see how it all turns out. Go Patriots!
AFC:
Chiefs v Texans: Prediction Chiefs, actual Chiefs
Steelers v Bengals: Prediction Steelers, actual Steelers
Chiefs v Patriots: Prediction Patriots, actual Patriots
Steelers v Broncos: Prediction Steelers, actual Broncos
Steelers v Patriots: Prediction Patriots, actual Broncos
NFC:
Seahawks v Vikings: Prediction Seahawks, actual Seahawks
Packers v Redskins: Prediction Packers, actual Packers
Packers v Cardinals: Prediction Cardinals, actual Cardinals
Seahawks v Panthers: Prediction Panthers, actual Panthers
Cardinals v Panthers: Prediction Cardinals, actual Panthers
Super Bowl
Cardinals v Patriots: Prediction Patriots, actual Broncos
While neither of my predicted Super Bowl teams made it to the big game, I did alright with the games leading up to it. And as a person who isn't particularly fond of Manning or Newton last year's Championship game couldn't have ended any better: Neither QB played well and Denver's Defense allowed Peyton to limp into retirement with his second Ring - tying his far less talented brother. So I got 64% right (7 out of 11). That's 1 better than last year. Let's see if I can get one better this year!
I got 100% last year's wild card weekend. That's not easy to replicate but here we go (I'll review them in the order in which they will be played):
AFC Saturday 1st game Raiders at Texans
Until about two weeks ago, the Raiders were the second scariest team in the AFC and were making a play at 1st overall. Then Carr broke his leg and their back up, McQloin, injured his non-throwing shoulder. They fell from fighting for first to fifth. While the Texans have had a mediocre season at best they have the good fortune of facing a decimated Raiders offense. Texans walk through this one.
Winner: Texans
NFC Saturday 2nd game Lions at Seahawks
This is a fairly evenly matched game: Two teams with better than average defenses playing with QBs who have been working with injuries this year. That means what might typically be considered a minor difference may end up being a major in the outcome. While Wilson dealt with a more serious injured earlier in the year, Stafford suffered a finger dislocation towards the end of it. Stafford's injury is on his throwing hand and has impacted his numbers - and the overall success of the team - ever since. The Lions finished the season on a three game losing streak (Giants, Cowboys, Packers). All three losses were to playoff teams but one would hope for at least one victory (which could have awarded them the division). Another factor to consider is the location. A few years ago, when the Seahawks won their division with a losing record they still went on to win their first playoff game because it was at home. Seattle is a difficult place to visit and win. I think the combination of 12th man pushes the Seahawks over the top for the win.
Winner: Seahawks
AFC Sunday 1st game Dolphins at Steelers
I don't put much stock in the Dolphins. They started the year 1-4 (their only win coming against the hapless 1-15 Browns) and faced 6 teams all year that finished the season .500 or better. The Dolphins went 1-5 in those six games. I feel like this playoff appearance is a consolation prize for being the best of the worst of the AFC. The Steelers should have little difficulty ending the Dolphins playoff hopes.
Winner: Steelers
NFC Sunday 2nd game: Giants at Packers
In typical Giant fashion, they had flashes of brilliance and moments of utter confusion. They handed the vaunted Cowboys 2 of their 3 losses this year but then floundered against the likes of the mediocre Vikings. That type of inconsistent play has plague Eli his entire career (see: defeating the undefeated Patriots & starting a season with more interceptions than receptions). That's one thing that makes predicting Giant games so difficult. Especially when playing against a QB who has a higher passer rating when he is outside of the pocket than when inside!
Winner: Packers
Divisional Round:
AFC Saturday 1st game Seahawks at Falcons
This is a fascinating match-up. Falcons over-powering offense (#1) vs Seahawks stingy defense (#3). What makes this more interesting than the possibility of a Falcons v Patriots (#1 defense) match-up is that these two teams are equally weak on the opposite side of the ball (Seahawks #18 in offense, Falcons #27 in defense). While they say that defenses win championships and one, therefore, should side with the Seahawks, most of their great defense came against flat-out bad teams. The Falcon's offense, on the other hand, fared much better against strong defenses than the Seahawk's defense did vs stronger offenses. Accordingly, we predict the Falcons will move on to the Championship round.
Winner: Falcons
AFC Saturday 2nd game Texans at Patriots
Once we enter the divisional round, the Texans will be the worst team remaining in the playoffs. Even if they had JJ Watt, the Texans would have a difficult time stopping TB12 and the Patriots. In order to keep the game competitive, the Texans will have to have at least two defensive/special team TDs. While the Patriots have been giving fans heart palpitations late in games recently, I don't think they will collapse to that extent. Look for Belichick's crew to waltz past the vastly over-paid Osweiler and the Texans.
Winner: Patriots
NFC Sunday 1st game Steelers at Chiefs
"Don't be too proud if this [bye-week] terror you've constructed." If not for the devastating injury to Derek Carr the Chiefs would be sitting in 5th place and traveling to Foxboro this week after defeating the Texans rather than hosting the Steelers. The Chiefs only dropped two games at home this year but got embarrassed in Pittsburgh losing by 29 points. The Steelers had an easy trip into the post season, at least, on paper. They won their last 7 games against teams that won less than 1/3 of their games (31-64-1) and even faced a playoff team during that run. However, they didn't win convincingly, finishing out the season with four wins of only one score (and nearly allowing the Browns to notch a second win). Those factors make this a difficult game to evaluate. Additionally, I'm uncomfortable choosing all of the home teams and, though you've not read my Packers/Cowboys pick - that's what I've done. If I had to pick a visiting team to win, it would be the Steelers. Having said that, I won't be picking the Steelers.
Winner: Chiefs
NFC Sunday 2nd game Packers at Cowboys
Well put me in a time machine and zap me back to the 90s! I love this match-up: Favre vs Aikman - I mean Rogers vs Prescott. These two teams faced a few of the same opponents this year but without providing a definitive conclusion as to which team is clearly better. The Cowboys lost to teams that the Packers defeated and vice versa. As long as the Cowboys can keep Rogers in the pocket they will win easily. If they are unable to contain Rogers, the 'Boys will still walk out with the win but it will be much closer.
Winner: Cowboys
Championship Round:
AFC
Chiefs at Patriots
Out of all of the AFC teams, the Chiefs are the team I didn't want to face (after Carr's injury. Prior it was the Raiders). They have a decent defense and an adequate offense. They match-up well against the Patriots. The Chiefs, however, have the misfortune of facing the team ranked #1 in points allowed and #3 in points scored (and remember, for the majority of the year they've been without either Brady or Gronk - and for some games - without both!) The Chiefs will put up a fight early, but the game will not be in doubt late.
Winner: Patriots
NFC
Falcons at Cowboys
Picking the home team for every game is like choosing all chalk in the NCAA March Madness Tournament - and, for as much as I want to choose the Falcons, I simply can't. While the top four contenders for NFL MVP are still paying at this point (Brady, Prescott, Elliot, & Ryan) it is the likely front runner for MVP (Ryan) who will walk out of Dallas with the L. My gut tells me that Dallas will lose this game. The 'Boys have had to score 24 points in order to walk away with a win for the majority of the season. That doesn't bode well for a team playing this late in the post-season. However, when I looked at the Falcon's defense they ranked 27th in the league for points against. Dallas is 5th. I'm not ignoring the fact that the Seahawks (whom I've picked to lose to the Falcons) are 3rd in defense The major difference is that the Falcons are 1st in offensive scoring, the Cowboys are 5th (the Seahawks wallow in 18th). I'm forced to predict the Cowboys as the victors.
Winner: Cowboys
Super Bowl
Cowboys vs Patriots
I feel like I've predicted Cowboys v Patriots a number of times prior to this. And I have: Once before. I've also predicted Falcons v Patriots once in the past as well. Nearly every time the Patriots are in the playoffs I've chosen them to make it to the Super Bowl. I'm fairly confident this year that they will advance, once again, to the Big Dance but I'm not excited about facing either the Falcons or the Cowboys. All in all, I'd rather see the Cowboys who have zero experience against a Belichickian defense. I believe that Brady will prove himself once and for all the GOAT in earning his 5th (and, astonishingly, not necessarily last) Super Bowl victory.
Winner: Patriots
So I've probably cursed the Patriots to a heart-breaking, last minute loss at the hands of the Seahawks! I still very much enjoy the process of evaluating the post-season teams and predicting the outcome of all of the games. I selected no upsets this year which doesn't sit well with me but we shall see how it all turns out. Go Patriots!
Sunday, January 24, 2016
All Four Super Bowl Previews X
It is hard to believe this is the tenth episode of "All Four Super Bowl Previews!" I suppose it's somehow fitting that my 10th is the NFL's 50th. (If you are interested in how I did with the previous nine predictions you can find the links to the previous editions at the end of the post.)
Perennially I update my prediction record. In reviewing my figures I located an error that I will correct from here forward. Scoring is as follows: 1 Point for correctly predicting the AFC winner, 1 point for the NFC winner, and 1 point for correctly predicting the winner of the contest of the actual Super Bowl teams. A potential of 3 points per year with one exception: For some inexplicable reason I intentionally made no prediction regarding which teams would go to the Super Bowl in 2010. However, I did (incorrectly) predict a winner of the actual game that occurred. That year shall count for 1 available point. So, up until my predictions for 2015, I was 12 for 22 (54.5%). Last year I correctly predicted that the Patriots would face the Seahawks in the Big Dance, however, I guess I thought the Seahawks would run the ball at the goal line and not toss Malcolm Butler the game winning interception. (An identical prediction to the one I made the year before when the Seahawks trounced the Broncos.) However, going 2 for 3 last year increases my record to 56%! Ok, on to the predictions for this year:
Interesting fact regarding this year's QBs: Three out of four of them are over 35! Newton is the baby of the bunch at 26.
Alright, here are this year's games from least compelling to most:
Patriots vs Cardinals
I feel the need to briefly define how I'm using the term "Compelling" in this ranking structure. I don't mean the quality of game that will be on display for the fans to watch. I mean the story - the selling factor that CBS can milk to try to entice the casual viewer to the couch for the game. That being said this game is the one that no one wants to see. Here's why: Nobody (outside of New England [and their fans]) wants to see Brady in another Super Bowl. His legacy is set, his HOF ticket is stamped, it's time to share with the other children. Everyone (outside of Arizona and the fans of the other NFC South Teams) wants to see Cam Newton on the Big Stage (and, no, I don't mean singing with Coldplay.) So if there's no Newton and there is Tom Terrific then few people will be happy. This is unfortunate as I believe this will be the best game to watch. The Cardinals and Patriots both have the best offense for their respective leagues and adequate defenses to make it difficult for the opponents offense to simply move the ball all over them. This is the game I expect to see and I believe that Belichick and Co will find a way to befuddle Palmer into making enough mistakes that the Patriots will be the first to repeat as Super Bowl champions since... oh yeah, The Patriots.
Winner: Patriots
Losers: Jim Nantz and Phil Simms as they have to say nice things about the Patriots (they will later gargle with antiseptic mouthwash).
Broncos vs Cardinals
It may be surprising to find this game listed second considering how much the average fan doesn't want to see Brady in the Super Bowl, so his absence might appear to be drawing factor. However, I believe that Newton's absence would cause more people to not watch than Brady's presence. In regards to the game, the Broncos have a decent defense but not enough to win a championship. Their offense isn't what it used to be either. This game won't feel like it's over because the Nantz and Simms will continually fawn over Manning and herald him as the football Messiah (never once mentioning the HGH scandal that is currently surrounding him) but he will be unable to overcome the Cardinals. Peyton will fall to 1-3 for his Super Bowl appearances.
Winner: Cardinals
Loser: Manning's HGH provider as demand plummets.
Patriots vs Panthers
While CBS will get some play out of the "rematch of Super Bowl XXXVIII" angle (Cam Newton was a freshman in high school when that game was played), the major story-line here is that the Panthers are seeking to mirror the Patriots feat of finishing a season 18-1. The only difference is, when the Patriots finished 18-1 they were 18-0 headed into the final game of the year. The Panthers had an opportunity match the Patriots undefeated 16 game regular season but fell to the Falcons week 15. Now, had they managed to overcome their divisional rival CBS would be selling their souls for this match-up. Imagine the hype: "The Panthers are on a mission to be the first undefeated team in the 16 game era. The only obstacle still in their way? The last team to attempt the seemingly impossible feat. The Patriots hope to add another team with an 18-1 record to the annals of NFL History." Instead, it's the Panthers hoping for a better 18-1 record, where they hoist the Lombardi trophy at the end and the Patriots hoping to send "SuperCam" Newton home with 17-2 record for the year. If this is the game that we see, my emotions say that the Panthers will win, but my head says the Patriots. I don't expect the Patriots to spot the Panthers 31 points like the Seahawks did last week and if the Panthers D couldn't stop the Seahawks from coming within a TD of victory, they won't be able to stop Tom, Edelman, Gronk, and Amendola.
Winner: Patriots
Loser: Roger Goodell
Broncos vs Panthers
This is the game that everyone without a dog in the fight wants to see. They want Peyton to have his swan song and go out on top like the last great Broncos QB, John Elway, did. Not only that, but they want it to be against a rising star QB Cam Newton. A passing of the torch, if you will. They picture Newton congratulating Peyton at the 50 just after Manning has announced that now that he's won the Super Bowl he's going to fly the Millennium Falcon to Disney World (Because they can't cross reference that enough!) Both QBs smiling from ear to ear as Manning says, "You'll get yours next year kid" and, in oblivious to the irony, hands Cam the game ball. Too bad that isn't what is going to happen. This game will be over by the middle of the 3rd. The Panthers won't fall for Manning's new patented "Look at me guys, I'm giving myself up!" play. Manning will be benched after he throws his 3rd INT (2nd Pick-six [4th turnover including an earlier strip sack]). Brock comes in the game but it's too little, too late as the Panthers role over the Broncos by 3 scores. The Panthers will finish the season 18-1, but this time with a championship.
Winner: Panthers
Losers: Everyone tired of hearing about the 1972 Dolphins
Those are my thoughts, what are yours? Here are the links to my previous predictions, analysis, winners, and losers:
2007, Colts over Bears;
Game Predicted: Saints over Colts.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Colts;
2008, Giants over Patriots;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Giants vs the Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots;
2009, Steelers over Cardinals;
Game Predicted: Steelers over Eagles.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Steelers;
2010, Saints over Colts;
Game Predicted: Purposeful lack of prediction.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Colts;
2011, Packers over Steelers;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Packers and Steelers
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Steelers;
2012, Giants over Patriots;
Game Predicted: Giants over Ravens.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots
2013, Ravens over 49ers;
Game Predicted: 49ers over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: 49ers
2014, Seahawks over Broncos;
Game Predicted: Seahawks over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Seahawks
2015, Patriots over Seahawks;
Game Predicted: Seahawks over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Seahawks
Perennially I update my prediction record. In reviewing my figures I located an error that I will correct from here forward. Scoring is as follows: 1 Point for correctly predicting the AFC winner, 1 point for the NFC winner, and 1 point for correctly predicting the winner of the contest of the actual Super Bowl teams. A potential of 3 points per year with one exception: For some inexplicable reason I intentionally made no prediction regarding which teams would go to the Super Bowl in 2010. However, I did (incorrectly) predict a winner of the actual game that occurred. That year shall count for 1 available point. So, up until my predictions for 2015, I was 12 for 22 (54.5%). Last year I correctly predicted that the Patriots would face the Seahawks in the Big Dance, however, I guess I thought the Seahawks would run the ball at the goal line and not toss Malcolm Butler the game winning interception. (An identical prediction to the one I made the year before when the Seahawks trounced the Broncos.) However, going 2 for 3 last year increases my record to 56%! Ok, on to the predictions for this year:
Interesting fact regarding this year's QBs: Three out of four of them are over 35! Newton is the baby of the bunch at 26.
Alright, here are this year's games from least compelling to most:
Patriots vs Cardinals
I feel the need to briefly define how I'm using the term "Compelling" in this ranking structure. I don't mean the quality of game that will be on display for the fans to watch. I mean the story - the selling factor that CBS can milk to try to entice the casual viewer to the couch for the game. That being said this game is the one that no one wants to see. Here's why: Nobody (outside of New England [and their fans]) wants to see Brady in another Super Bowl. His legacy is set, his HOF ticket is stamped, it's time to share with the other children. Everyone (outside of Arizona and the fans of the other NFC South Teams) wants to see Cam Newton on the Big Stage (and, no, I don't mean singing with Coldplay.) So if there's no Newton and there is Tom Terrific then few people will be happy. This is unfortunate as I believe this will be the best game to watch. The Cardinals and Patriots both have the best offense for their respective leagues and adequate defenses to make it difficult for the opponents offense to simply move the ball all over them. This is the game I expect to see and I believe that Belichick and Co will find a way to befuddle Palmer into making enough mistakes that the Patriots will be the first to repeat as Super Bowl champions since... oh yeah, The Patriots.
Winner: Patriots
Losers: Jim Nantz and Phil Simms as they have to say nice things about the Patriots (they will later gargle with antiseptic mouthwash).
Broncos vs Cardinals
It may be surprising to find this game listed second considering how much the average fan doesn't want to see Brady in the Super Bowl, so his absence might appear to be drawing factor. However, I believe that Newton's absence would cause more people to not watch than Brady's presence. In regards to the game, the Broncos have a decent defense but not enough to win a championship. Their offense isn't what it used to be either. This game won't feel like it's over because the Nantz and Simms will continually fawn over Manning and herald him as the football Messiah (never once mentioning the HGH scandal that is currently surrounding him) but he will be unable to overcome the Cardinals. Peyton will fall to 1-3 for his Super Bowl appearances.
Winner: Cardinals
Loser: Manning's HGH provider as demand plummets.
Patriots vs Panthers
While CBS will get some play out of the "rematch of Super Bowl XXXVIII" angle (Cam Newton was a freshman in high school when that game was played), the major story-line here is that the Panthers are seeking to mirror the Patriots feat of finishing a season 18-1. The only difference is, when the Patriots finished 18-1 they were 18-0 headed into the final game of the year. The Panthers had an opportunity match the Patriots undefeated 16 game regular season but fell to the Falcons week 15. Now, had they managed to overcome their divisional rival CBS would be selling their souls for this match-up. Imagine the hype: "The Panthers are on a mission to be the first undefeated team in the 16 game era. The only obstacle still in their way? The last team to attempt the seemingly impossible feat. The Patriots hope to add another team with an 18-1 record to the annals of NFL History." Instead, it's the Panthers hoping for a better 18-1 record, where they hoist the Lombardi trophy at the end and the Patriots hoping to send "SuperCam" Newton home with 17-2 record for the year. If this is the game that we see, my emotions say that the Panthers will win, but my head says the Patriots. I don't expect the Patriots to spot the Panthers 31 points like the Seahawks did last week and if the Panthers D couldn't stop the Seahawks from coming within a TD of victory, they won't be able to stop Tom, Edelman, Gronk, and Amendola.
Winner: Patriots
Loser: Roger Goodell
Broncos vs Panthers
This is the game that everyone without a dog in the fight wants to see. They want Peyton to have his swan song and go out on top like the last great Broncos QB, John Elway, did. Not only that, but they want it to be against a rising star QB Cam Newton. A passing of the torch, if you will. They picture Newton congratulating Peyton at the 50 just after Manning has announced that now that he's won the Super Bowl he's going to fly the Millennium Falcon to Disney World (Because they can't cross reference that enough!) Both QBs smiling from ear to ear as Manning says, "You'll get yours next year kid" and, in oblivious to the irony, hands Cam the game ball. Too bad that isn't what is going to happen. This game will be over by the middle of the 3rd. The Panthers won't fall for Manning's new patented "Look at me guys, I'm giving myself up!" play. Manning will be benched after he throws his 3rd INT (2nd Pick-six [4th turnover including an earlier strip sack]). Brock comes in the game but it's too little, too late as the Panthers role over the Broncos by 3 scores. The Panthers will finish the season 18-1, but this time with a championship.
Winner: Panthers
Losers: Everyone tired of hearing about the 1972 Dolphins
Those are my thoughts, what are yours? Here are the links to my previous predictions, analysis, winners, and losers:
2007, Colts over Bears;
Game Predicted: Saints over Colts.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Colts;
2008, Giants over Patriots;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Giants vs the Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots;
2009, Steelers over Cardinals;
Game Predicted: Steelers over Eagles.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Steelers;
2010, Saints over Colts;
Game Predicted: Purposeful lack of prediction.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Colts;
2011, Packers over Steelers;
Game Predicted: Accurately predicted the Packers and Steelers
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Steelers;
2012, Giants over Patriots;
Game Predicted: Giants over Ravens.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Patriots
2013, Ravens over 49ers;
Game Predicted: 49ers over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: 49ers
2014, Seahawks over Broncos;
Game Predicted: Seahawks over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Seahawks
2015, Patriots over Seahawks;
Game Predicted: Seahawks over Patriots.
Predicted Winner of the Actual Super Bowl match-up: Seahawks
Friday, January 08, 2016
2015-2016 NFL Playoff Preview
It's the most wonderful time of the year! Nope, not Christmas time, NFL Playoff time! Hard to believe it's been another year since I posted but I simply can't refuse the siren call of predicting the NFL Post season. Here is how I did with last year's playoff predictions.
AFC:
Ravens v Steelers: Prediction Steelers, actual Ravens
Colts v Bengals: Prediction Bengals, actual Colts
Bengals v Patriots: Prediction Patriots, actual Patriots
Colts v Broncos: Prediction Broncos, actual Colts
Colts v Patriots: Prediction Patriots, actual Patriots
NFC:
Panthers v Cardinals: Prediction Panthers, actual Panthers
Cowboys v Lions: Prediction Cowboys, actual Cowboys
Seahawks v Panthers: Prediction Seahawks, actual Seahawks
Cowboys v Packers: Prediction Cowboys, actual Packers
Cowboys v Seahawks: Prediction Cowboys, actual Seahawks
Super Bowl
Cowboys v Patriots: Prediction Patriots, actual Patriots
It didn't look like my final prediction was going to hold true with the circus catch and Beast-Mode expectation until Butlers INT. I I went only 6 for 11 for 54% which is unfortunate seeing as half of those predictions were the Patriots! On to this year: Here is how I believe the second best tournament of the year will work itself out (NCAA basketball is #1):
I felt like last year's Wild Card Weekend was up-in-the-air. This year I feel like it's nearly a gimmie. That being said, I'll probably be lucky if I go .500 so don't rush to Vegas with my predictions. I'll review them in the order in which they will be played:
AFC Saturday 1st game Chiefs at Texans
If I were to power rank all 12 of the playoff teams the Texans would be at the bottom. I've heard many people talking about the Chiefs as the sleeper team of the post season. Momentum is a fairly important aspect of the NFL and the Chiefs are carrying a 10 game winning streak. Now, the flip side of that stat is that their wins were against pedestrian teams. Only 2 of which finished the year over .500 and three of their opponents winning fewer than a third of their games. This game will be a close one with Houston's excellent Defense holding KC's very good offense and KC's adequate defense stopping Houston's below average offense. When the clock stops, it's the Chiefs that will be moving on.
Winner: Chiefs
AFC Saturday 2nd game Steelers at Bengals
As a Patriots fan, the Steelers are the team that concern me the most. It wouldn't surprise me if Belichick lost to the Jets to give them control of their own destiny and keep Pittsburgh out of the post season. Then, when he saw that the Bills were whooping up on the Jets he chose to lose to the Dolphins so that if the Patriots had to meet the Steelers it wouldn't be until the AFC Championship game The Bengals, on the other hand would be ranked just above the Texans. With a back up QB and only a few challenges this year, less than half that they rose to, the Bengals are benefiting from early success. That success will not carry them into the next round of the post season. This game will be over by halftime. The Bengals have gone 24 years since their last playoff win. That tally will increase to 25.
Winner: Steelers
NFC Sunday 1st game Seahawks at Vikings
The biggest headline of this game will be the weather. Not because it will be the coldest game of all time, not even close. But with temperatures expected to be around 8 degrees Fahrenheit the NFL could put an end to "Deflategate" (or "Framegate" as it is more appropriately called) once and for all. Simply test those footballs at half time and make the results public. Of course, this will never happen. So, on to the game: Of all the games for wild card weekend, this is the most difficult to predict. The Vikings have had a late season push to finally wrestle the division from the claws of the Packers. Seattle has also had some success against key teams this season, most notably the Cardinals and the Vikings. If we were to go by the meeting in the regular season one would expect the Seahawks to run away with this one as they won by 29. However, the way the Vikings played against the Packers when it mattered gave a glimpse of what the team can do when their back is against the wall. The Seahawks have overcome the curse of the losing Super Bowl team not making the playoffs, but only just barely. It may be interesting to note that the teams who which the Seahawks have lost have the second highest winning record (behind only the Bengals)and the teams they beat have the 3rd lowest winning record (behind the Texans and Bengals). That means they lost to the good teams and beat the bad teams. That might make this pick easier if the Vikings hadn't done much of the same. Edging out the Seahawks by 1.76% in winning percentage of the teams they've beaten. So who comes out on top? The boys from Washington
Winner: Seahawks
NFC Sunday 2nd game: Packers at Redskins
The Packers of late have not been the Packers we've come to know and love (Or otherwise, depending on which team you favor). While the Redskins have emerged from the worst division of the NFC (When a team is 4-10 week 15 and still not mathematically eliminated from the post season [Dallas], there's a problem). The Redskins have the distinction of having lowest winning percentage of the teams against whom they won. Interestingly, they also lost teams with the second lowest winning percentage (The Panthers had the lowest winning percentage of teams they lost to [which was only one (Falcons)] at 50%). This means the Redskins had the easiest schedule out of all of the playoff teams and they still limped in. It feels odd going with all of the road teams but I can't find a good reason to pick the Redskins.
Winner: Packers
Divisional Round:
AFC Saturday 1st game Chiefs at Patriots
While I would much rather have seen the Bengals in this slot, we'll take the Chiefs. Hopefully, Edelman, Amendola, Gronk, and Brady will all be at 100%. If they are, then I have little concern that the Patriots will move on to the next round. If they are not all available to play, I still believe that the Patriots are matched up will against the Chiefs. People may point to the Patriots having gone 2-4 in their final 6 games but remember a few things: The Broncos game could have easily gone either way, the Eagles loss was a major special teams debacle and the Patriots still had a chance to win, and the losses to the Jets and Dolphins may have been intentional. The Patriots usually save a few special plays for the post season (See: Ravens controversy last year that we all forgot about because of "Framegate). The Chief's hopes for a championship end in Foxboro.
Winner: Patriots
NFC Saturday 2nd game Packers at Cardinals
The Packers aren't as fortunate this round having to travel to Arizona to face the Cardinals. The Cardinals have already disposed of the Packers once this season and it was the current team who doesn't look like the Green Bay of old (Or even week 5). Palmer will beat Rogers and give the Cards the win.
Winner: Cardinals
NFC Sunday 1st game Seahawks at Panthers
The Panthers looked like they were going to match the Patriots feat of 2007 of going the entire regular season without a loss. They still have a chance to match New England's 18-1 record if they can bring home the Lombardi Trophy. First they have to get past the Seahawks. The likelihood that the Panthers were going to go undefeated decreased greatly when their star running back Jonathan Stewart went down with an injury. Two games later they lost to the Falcons. The Panthers faced teams with the worst overall winning percentage but part of that is that they defeated 93.75% of those teams. However, those same teams didn't do a lot of winning apart from when they faced the Panthers either. It would be a great disappointment if the Panthers went out the first round. Rumor has it that Stewart will be back. The Panthers don't disappoint.
Winner: Panthers
AFC Sunday 2nd game Steelers at Broncos
This is a game I (wrongly) predicted last year. But this year I'm even more sure it will happen. The Steelers are one of the healthiest teams in the AFC and that goes a long way in the post season. The Broncos have to choose between an injured geriatric with a bum neck and an unproven QB who they pulled from the final game of the year when it really mattered. I believe they are going to go with Manning and he will be the Manning of late (which is the Manning we've come to expect in the playoffs). He will throw no fewer than 2 interceptions. He will get a hit that will give the Broncos and excuse to pull him in favor of Brock but it will be too late. Big Ben will march the Steelers to a Mile High victory ending Manning's final chance at equaling his younger (and far less talented) brother's Super Bowl victories.
Winner: Steelers
Championship Round:
AFC
Steelers at Patriots
This is the game I dreaded. Can the Patriots #DefendtheWall against the Steelers in Foxboro. The Patriots have defeated Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship game twice in the past, both times in Pittsburgh, and both times the Patriots went on to win the Super Bowl. Can the Steelers return the favor? Can Big Ben waltz into Foxoboro in late January, defeat the Patriots and then beat the NFC's Super Bowl Representative? I don't think so (that, and every time I've picked against the Patriots I've regretted it).
Winner: Patriots
NFC
Cardinals at Panthers
As informed as I try to be I haven't had much opportunity to see the Cardinals this year. Stats show that they are evenly balanced but can they stop the double pronged run and shoot offense of Stewart, Newton, and the Panthers? While Cam is certainly the shoe-in for NFL MVP this year, I'm not 100% sure that he can beat the Cardinals. If they did, I think they'd win the Super Bowl. I've even typed the Super Bowl match up of a Panthers v Patriots rematch but it didn't seem right. Despite my better judgment and what all the experts are saying, I'm going with Palmer and the Cardinals.
Winner: Cardinals
Super Bowl
Cardinals vs Patriots
This actually will be a better game than Panthers v Patriots. Cardinals v Patriots will have more fan-favorite passing and a advertising preferred high-scoring game. Like every other Patriots victory, this game will be decided by less than a Touchdown in the closing minutes of the game. Unlike other Patriots games, this game will have two teams pushing, if not breaking, the 40 point barrier. If you're a gambler - take the over (Not really because, as I've proved in the past, what do I know?!)
Winner: Patriots
There you have it. If you are a betting person, I recommend betting on what I predicted will NOT happen. If one were to do some reconnaissance on my previous NFL predictions during the preseason, I'm pretty sure we'd see that the Dallas v New England Super Bowl is one that is most commonly predicted. However, this year I believe it's a very high likelihood. Enjoy the games. What a great time of year!
AFC:
Ravens v Steelers: Prediction Steelers, actual Ravens
Colts v Bengals: Prediction Bengals, actual Colts
Bengals v Patriots: Prediction Patriots, actual Patriots
Colts v Broncos: Prediction Broncos, actual Colts
Colts v Patriots: Prediction Patriots, actual Patriots
NFC:
Panthers v Cardinals: Prediction Panthers, actual Panthers
Cowboys v Lions: Prediction Cowboys, actual Cowboys
Seahawks v Panthers: Prediction Seahawks, actual Seahawks
Cowboys v Packers: Prediction Cowboys, actual Packers
Cowboys v Seahawks: Prediction Cowboys, actual Seahawks
Super Bowl
Cowboys v Patriots: Prediction Patriots, actual Patriots
It didn't look like my final prediction was going to hold true with the circus catch and Beast-Mode expectation until Butlers INT. I I went only 6 for 11 for 54% which is unfortunate seeing as half of those predictions were the Patriots! On to this year: Here is how I believe the second best tournament of the year will work itself out (NCAA basketball is #1):
I felt like last year's Wild Card Weekend was up-in-the-air. This year I feel like it's nearly a gimmie. That being said, I'll probably be lucky if I go .500 so don't rush to Vegas with my predictions. I'll review them in the order in which they will be played:
AFC Saturday 1st game Chiefs at Texans
If I were to power rank all 12 of the playoff teams the Texans would be at the bottom. I've heard many people talking about the Chiefs as the sleeper team of the post season. Momentum is a fairly important aspect of the NFL and the Chiefs are carrying a 10 game winning streak. Now, the flip side of that stat is that their wins were against pedestrian teams. Only 2 of which finished the year over .500 and three of their opponents winning fewer than a third of their games. This game will be a close one with Houston's excellent Defense holding KC's very good offense and KC's adequate defense stopping Houston's below average offense. When the clock stops, it's the Chiefs that will be moving on.
Winner: Chiefs
AFC Saturday 2nd game Steelers at Bengals
As a Patriots fan, the Steelers are the team that concern me the most. It wouldn't surprise me if Belichick lost to the Jets to give them control of their own destiny and keep Pittsburgh out of the post season. Then, when he saw that the Bills were whooping up on the Jets he chose to lose to the Dolphins so that if the Patriots had to meet the Steelers it wouldn't be until the AFC Championship game The Bengals, on the other hand would be ranked just above the Texans. With a back up QB and only a few challenges this year, less than half that they rose to, the Bengals are benefiting from early success. That success will not carry them into the next round of the post season. This game will be over by halftime. The Bengals have gone 24 years since their last playoff win. That tally will increase to 25.
Winner: Steelers
NFC Sunday 1st game Seahawks at Vikings
The biggest headline of this game will be the weather. Not because it will be the coldest game of all time, not even close. But with temperatures expected to be around 8 degrees Fahrenheit the NFL could put an end to "Deflategate" (or "Framegate" as it is more appropriately called) once and for all. Simply test those footballs at half time and make the results public. Of course, this will never happen. So, on to the game: Of all the games for wild card weekend, this is the most difficult to predict. The Vikings have had a late season push to finally wrestle the division from the claws of the Packers. Seattle has also had some success against key teams this season, most notably the Cardinals and the Vikings. If we were to go by the meeting in the regular season one would expect the Seahawks to run away with this one as they won by 29. However, the way the Vikings played against the Packers when it mattered gave a glimpse of what the team can do when their back is against the wall. The Seahawks have overcome the curse of the losing Super Bowl team not making the playoffs, but only just barely. It may be interesting to note that the teams who which the Seahawks have lost have the second highest winning record (behind only the Bengals)and the teams they beat have the 3rd lowest winning record (behind the Texans and Bengals). That means they lost to the good teams and beat the bad teams. That might make this pick easier if the Vikings hadn't done much of the same. Edging out the Seahawks by 1.76% in winning percentage of the teams they've beaten. So who comes out on top? The boys from Washington
Winner: Seahawks
NFC Sunday 2nd game: Packers at Redskins
The Packers of late have not been the Packers we've come to know and love (Or otherwise, depending on which team you favor). While the Redskins have emerged from the worst division of the NFC (When a team is 4-10 week 15 and still not mathematically eliminated from the post season [Dallas], there's a problem). The Redskins have the distinction of having lowest winning percentage of the teams against whom they won. Interestingly, they also lost teams with the second lowest winning percentage (The Panthers had the lowest winning percentage of teams they lost to [which was only one (Falcons)] at 50%). This means the Redskins had the easiest schedule out of all of the playoff teams and they still limped in. It feels odd going with all of the road teams but I can't find a good reason to pick the Redskins.
Winner: Packers
Divisional Round:
AFC Saturday 1st game Chiefs at Patriots
While I would much rather have seen the Bengals in this slot, we'll take the Chiefs. Hopefully, Edelman, Amendola, Gronk, and Brady will all be at 100%. If they are, then I have little concern that the Patriots will move on to the next round. If they are not all available to play, I still believe that the Patriots are matched up will against the Chiefs. People may point to the Patriots having gone 2-4 in their final 6 games but remember a few things: The Broncos game could have easily gone either way, the Eagles loss was a major special teams debacle and the Patriots still had a chance to win, and the losses to the Jets and Dolphins may have been intentional. The Patriots usually save a few special plays for the post season (See: Ravens controversy last year that we all forgot about because of "Framegate). The Chief's hopes for a championship end in Foxboro.
Winner: Patriots
NFC Saturday 2nd game Packers at Cardinals
The Packers aren't as fortunate this round having to travel to Arizona to face the Cardinals. The Cardinals have already disposed of the Packers once this season and it was the current team who doesn't look like the Green Bay of old (Or even week 5). Palmer will beat Rogers and give the Cards the win.
Winner: Cardinals
NFC Sunday 1st game Seahawks at Panthers
The Panthers looked like they were going to match the Patriots feat of 2007 of going the entire regular season without a loss. They still have a chance to match New England's 18-1 record if they can bring home the Lombardi Trophy. First they have to get past the Seahawks. The likelihood that the Panthers were going to go undefeated decreased greatly when their star running back Jonathan Stewart went down with an injury. Two games later they lost to the Falcons. The Panthers faced teams with the worst overall winning percentage but part of that is that they defeated 93.75% of those teams. However, those same teams didn't do a lot of winning apart from when they faced the Panthers either. It would be a great disappointment if the Panthers went out the first round. Rumor has it that Stewart will be back. The Panthers don't disappoint.
Winner: Panthers
AFC Sunday 2nd game Steelers at Broncos
This is a game I (wrongly) predicted last year. But this year I'm even more sure it will happen. The Steelers are one of the healthiest teams in the AFC and that goes a long way in the post season. The Broncos have to choose between an injured geriatric with a bum neck and an unproven QB who they pulled from the final game of the year when it really mattered. I believe they are going to go with Manning and he will be the Manning of late (which is the Manning we've come to expect in the playoffs). He will throw no fewer than 2 interceptions. He will get a hit that will give the Broncos and excuse to pull him in favor of Brock but it will be too late. Big Ben will march the Steelers to a Mile High victory ending Manning's final chance at equaling his younger (and far less talented) brother's Super Bowl victories.
Winner: Steelers
Championship Round:
AFC
Steelers at Patriots
This is the game I dreaded. Can the Patriots #DefendtheWall against the Steelers in Foxboro. The Patriots have defeated Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship game twice in the past, both times in Pittsburgh, and both times the Patriots went on to win the Super Bowl. Can the Steelers return the favor? Can Big Ben waltz into Foxoboro in late January, defeat the Patriots and then beat the NFC's Super Bowl Representative? I don't think so (that, and every time I've picked against the Patriots I've regretted it).
Winner: Patriots
NFC
Cardinals at Panthers
As informed as I try to be I haven't had much opportunity to see the Cardinals this year. Stats show that they are evenly balanced but can they stop the double pronged run and shoot offense of Stewart, Newton, and the Panthers? While Cam is certainly the shoe-in for NFL MVP this year, I'm not 100% sure that he can beat the Cardinals. If they did, I think they'd win the Super Bowl. I've even typed the Super Bowl match up of a Panthers v Patriots rematch but it didn't seem right. Despite my better judgment and what all the experts are saying, I'm going with Palmer and the Cardinals.
Winner: Cardinals
Super Bowl
Cardinals vs Patriots
This actually will be a better game than Panthers v Patriots. Cardinals v Patriots will have more fan-favorite passing and a advertising preferred high-scoring game. Like every other Patriots victory, this game will be decided by less than a Touchdown in the closing minutes of the game. Unlike other Patriots games, this game will have two teams pushing, if not breaking, the 40 point barrier. If you're a gambler - take the over (Not really because, as I've proved in the past, what do I know?!)
Winner: Patriots
There you have it. If you are a betting person, I recommend betting on what I predicted will NOT happen. If one were to do some reconnaissance on my previous NFL predictions during the preseason, I'm pretty sure we'd see that the Dallas v New England Super Bowl is one that is most commonly predicted. However, this year I believe it's a very high likelihood. Enjoy the games. What a great time of year!
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